每经AI快讯，9月11日，乌克兰央行将基准利率维持在15.5%，符合市场预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's call for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with the prospect of increased short-term bond issuance, may disrupt the Treasury bond market and ultimately raise long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from the Trump administration to lower the benchmark interest rate to stimulate the U.S. economy [1] - This pressure could lead to a scenario where bondholders lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to maintaining the real value of their principal [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Market Dynamics - Increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, may be a strategy to save on interest expenses in the current high-yield environment [1] - If the Fed appears more focused on government financing rather than protecting bondholders, it could trigger bond sell-offs and an increase in term premiums [1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is exploring ways to increase its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, potentially extending its power beyond personnel appointments in Washington [1][2] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board if upheld in court [1][2] - The selection and reappointment process for regional Fed presidents is overseen by regional boards and the Board of Governors, and if the government can review these processes, it would mark a significant step in influencing monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the White House is scrutinizing every aspect to find ways to change the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the reappointment voting of regional Fed presidents [2] - The goal of the Trump administration is not to make the Federal Reserve more dovish but to closely examine the selection and review process for regional Fed presidents, as these positions do not require Senate confirmation [2][3] - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that any political moves to dismiss multiple regional Fed presidents could exacerbate inflation and raise long-term interest rates [2][3] Group 3 - Brainard stated that attempts to alter the overall voting results of the FOMC represent an unprecedented challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - Since returning to the White House, Trump has consistently called for interest rate cuts, but under Jerome Powell's leadership, the Fed has maintained the benchmark rate due to concerns over inflation from Trump's tariff policies [3][4] - Trump's economic team believes the Fed failed to effectively regulate the economy before the 2008 financial crisis but gained more power afterward, criticizing its slow response to inflation in 2021-22 and the subsequent Silicon Valley Bank collapse [4] Group 4 - Trump indicated that his nominated candidates would soon hold a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, supporting his desire for significant interest rate cuts [5] - He emphasized that achieving a majority vote would improve housing issues, stating that high loan rates are the primary problem that needs addressing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises significant concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a reshaping of its board with Trump loyalists [1][2][3] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, claiming constitutional authority to do so, which has sparked debates about the Fed's independence [1] - Cook was accused of mortgage fraud related to her property declarations, which Trump cited as the reason for her dismissal [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice is set to investigate Cook for the alleged mortgage fraud, while she has refused to resign under pressure [1] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's actions may lead to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, allowing him to appoint officials who align with his views on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with Trump having appointed several during his first term, potentially influencing the board's stance on monetary policy [2] - The potential for a legal battle over Cook's dismissal could further complicate the situation, as she may remain in her position during the proceedings [1][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Cook's dismissal, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2%, while gold prices increased by 0.4%, indicating market sensitivity to changes in Federal Reserve governance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has revised its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the economy [1] Economic Forecasts - The inflation rate forecast for Brazil in 2025 has been lowered from 5.05% to 4.95% [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been adjusted down from 4.41% to 4.4% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 2.21% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at 1.87% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The market predicts that the benchmark interest rate for Brazil will remain at 15% in 2025 [1] - The interest rate forecast for 2026 is set at 12.5% [1] - The exchange rate forecast for the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 1 USD to 5.6 BRL [1] - The exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 is also unchanged at 1 USD to 5.7 BRL [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The inflation rate in Israel has decreased over the past 12 months, with July's rate at 3.1%, slightly above the target upper limit, and forecasts suggest inflation will return to the target range in the coming months [3] - The central bank highlights various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth amid supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3] Group 2 - The Israeli government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, amid high geopolitical uncertainty and various potential developments in the security situation [3] - The central bank's governor, Amir Yaron, expressed hopes for three interest rate cuts next year, bringing the rate down to 3.75%, although the timing for such cuts remains uncertain [3] - A lower risk premium could lead to rapid demand expansion, and the appreciation of the shekel is expected to help reduce inflation [4] Group 3 - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investments, with U.S. tariffs posing risks to the economy [4] - The deep involvement of pension funds in the stock market and the technology sector's reliance on U.S. venture capital are directly impacted by these uncertainties [4] - Amir Yaron emphasized the need for Israel to "reduce uncertainty" as quickly as possible to stabilize the economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June to 3.8% in July, indicating rising inflation pressures [1] - The core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also saw a slight increase from 3.7% in June to 3.8% in July [1] - The CPI for services rose from 4.7% to 5.0%, reflecting broader inflationary trends in the service sector [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the rising CPI will put pressure on the Bank of England's monetary policy, making it difficult to further cut interest rates if inflation continues to rise [1] - The Bank of England recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [1] - The Bank of England forecasts that the inflation rate will peak at 4% in September before gradually returning to the target level of 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, which aligns with market expectations [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the central bank's strategy to manage inflation and economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The director of the Economic Policy Department of the Central Bank of Brazil, Diogo Guillen, stated that it is too early to consider lowering the benchmark interest rate (Selic) during the Copom meeting [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank is still searching for the most suitable interest rate level to achieve inflation targets and will maintain this rate for a longer period once determined [1] - The current benchmark interest rate in Brazil remains at 15%, a level established in June and unchanged since the last monetary policy meeting at the end of July [1] Group 2: Market Observations - Guillen defended the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policy, noting its observable impact on credit and foreign exchange markets [1] - Since 2025, there have been no unusual trends in the foreign exchange market, with the Brazilian real performing in line with global trends against the US dollar [1]