Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, 2026, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose significantly. The main contract EC2604 closed up 11.30%, and the far - month contracts closed up 3 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [3]. - The cancellation of full tax - refund for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume and supporting freight rates. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand [3]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth - week quotes for large containers ranged from $2600 - $3200, and Maersk's fourth - week opening price for large containers was $2700, up $100 from the third week. Geopolitically, there are expectations of improved Red Sea shipping, and the inflation pressure in the eurozone has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an ECB interest - rate hike by the end of the year [3]. - Freight rate increases have not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The current freight market is greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1280.8, up 65; EC secondary main contract closing price was 1485.1; EC2604 - EC2606 spread was +77, EC2604 - EC2608 spread was - 204.3, up 96.8 from - 284.4; EC contract basis was +24.26; EC main contract open interest was 37092, up 8071 [3]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1956.39, up 160.56; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1323.98, up 73.86; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1656.32, up 8.93; container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs) remained unchanged; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1146.67, down 48.22; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1519.06, down 48.69; Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1688, up 30; Panamax freight index (daily) was 1345, down 9; average charter price for Panamax ships remained unchanged, and for Capesize ships was $19336, down $646 [3]. Industry News - From April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic - related products will no longer enjoy VAT export tax - refund incentives [3]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to prevent the seizure of Venezuela's oil revenues in US Treasury accounts [3]. - EU member states voted to pass the free - trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, with 21 member states supporting it and 5 opposing it [3]. Key Focus - January 13, 21:30, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate; January 13, 21:30, US December unadjusted core CPI annual rate [3]

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, with a complete cancellation from January 1, 2027 [1] - The National Internet Information Office is drafting regulations on the collection and use of personal information by internet applications, emphasizing legality, necessity, and integrity in data collection practices [1] - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry, addressing issues like subsidies and price competition [1] - The National Business Work Conference aims to implement actions to boost consumption in 2026, promoting the "Buy in China" brand and optimizing policies for upgrading consumer goods [1] - The Ministry of Commerce supports nine cities, including Dalian, in expanding service industry pilot programs, with 103 tasks to be integrated and implemented [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will expedite the development of national standards for the new energy vehicle, lithium battery, and photovoltaic industries [1] - The National Medical Products Administration is publicizing plans for two recommended industry standards for medical devices using brain-computer interface technology [1] - Changes in U.S. interest rate expectations indicate a significant probability of maintaining rates, with a drop in the likelihood of a rate cut in January [1] - The U.S. has declared a national emergency to protect Venezuelan oil revenues from legal actions [1] - A criminal investigation has been initiated against the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding renovations at the Fed's Washington headquarters [1] Important Company Information - Defu Technology has terminated its acquisition of 100% of a Luxembourg copper foil company due to restrictions imposed by the Luxembourg Ministry of Economy, with a refund of €17.4047 million to be processed within 10 working days [2] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary has had its product included in the list of breakthrough therapeutic varieties, targeting severe hypertriglyceridemia [4] - China Nonferrous Mining announced the completion of repairs at its Qianbixi Southeast mine, with an expected copper production of approximately 484,000 tons in 2026 [4] - Sichuan Chuang Electronics expects a net loss of between ¥265 million and ¥340 million, widening from a loss of ¥246 million in the previous year due to intensified market competition [4] - Dechang Co. anticipates a net profit of ¥160 million to ¥200 million for 2025, a decrease of ¥251 million to ¥211 million compared to the previous year [4] Daily Research Report - The oil and petrochemical industry reports a decrease in crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $60.75 per barrel, down 2.72% [5] - U.S. refinery capacity utilization has increased to 94.7%, with gasoline supply rising by 2.85% [6] - U.S. crude oil imports have increased by 8.44%, while China's crude oil imports rose by 5.23% [6]

Group 1 - China has received applications for an additional 200,000 satellites, indicating a significant expansion in satellite technology and capabilities [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, 2026, which may impact the solar industry [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated a pilot project for the "Personal Medical Insurance Cloud," aiming to enhance healthcare accessibility and management [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai government is accelerating the development of innovative products such as commercial rockets and humanoid robots, which could lead to breakthroughs in industrial scaling [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is conducting an investigation into the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry, which may affect market dynamics [2] - The National Health Commission has publicized plans for two industry standards related to random interface recommendations, indicating a move towards standardization in healthcare technology [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for both industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are "oscillation" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, will lead to a significant rush of exports in Q1 2026, but it is a negative factor for demand in the whole - year perspective. After the rush - export period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [2][11][12] - In the short term, leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises will maintain price - holding strategies, but the possibility of price - testing at lower prices by second - and third - tier enterprises increases. Polycrystalline silicon prices may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2][16] - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. In the short term, industrial silicon may operate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [3][18][19] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 145 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,715 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polycrystalline silicon decreased by 6,620 yuan/ton week - on - week to 51,300 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials from the Silicon Industry Association increased by 5,300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 59,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polycrystalline Silicon - There were many industry news this week, including rumors of production cuts by leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises, the market supervision department's interview with the photovoltaic industry association and leading enterprises, and the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [11] - It is expected that there will be a significant rush of exports of photovoltaic products in Q1 2026. The expected domestic component production in Q1 2026 is revised upwards to 125GW, a 31% increase from the previous expectation. After April 2026, the annual component export volume is expected to decline by 5 - 10%, and the annual component production will be reduced to about 468GW, a 3% decrease from the previous expectation [12] - During the rush - export window period, downstream sectors have the hope of price increases, but in the whole - year view, the profit pressure on downstream enterprises is greater. After the window period, the cancellation of the export tax rebate will intensify the losses of component enterprises [13] - During the rush - export window period, polycrystalline silicon prices still depend on the price alliance. After the window period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [14] 3. Industrial Silicon - This week, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 1, Shaanxi increased by 1, and Qinghai decreased by 1. Yunnan's operation rate remained low. An integrated large - scale enterprise may cut industrial silicon production in Sichuan to zero by the end of the month [17] - The improvement of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. The reduction of polycrystalline silicon production is expected to match that of industrial silicon, having no marginal impact on the supply - demand of industrial silicon. The organic silicon price is expected to rise further, and the supply side may adjust due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be in a tight balance from January to February, and there will be significant inventory accumulation after March if the Xinjiang large - scale enterprise resumes production [18] 4. Hot News Compilation - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [20] - A leading enterprise raised the silicon wafer quotation, but no other silicon wafer enterprises followed, and downstream battery enterprises did not accept the price increase. Market sentiment is becoming more wait - and - see [20] 5. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Industrial Chain 5.1 Industrial Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's oxygen - blown 553 spot price, 99 - silicon spot price, national and regional industrial silicon weekly output, and social and factory inventories [22][24][28] 5.2 Organic Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's DMC spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [30][31] 5.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's polycrystalline silicon spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][39] 5.4 Silicon Wafers - Relevant data charts include China's silicon wafer spot price, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output, as well as profit calculations [41][43][45] 5.5 Battery Cells - Relevant data charts include China's battery cell spot price, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [46][47][49] 5.6 Components - Relevant data charts include China's component spot price, component finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [53][56][58]