Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

Core Insights - The housing prices in Rongxin Century Jiangwan, once driven by school district advantages, have significantly declined from a peak of 190,000 - 200,000 yuan per square meter in early 2023 to current listings around 150,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a broader market adjustment [5][6][8] - The perception of school district properties is changing, with recent policy shifts indicating a potential decrease in their premium value, as evidenced by the Shanghai Yangpu District's plan to redistribute quality teachers to weaker schools [13] Price Trends - Current listings for 93 square meter units in Rongxin Century Jiangwan are around 14.59 million to 14.70 million yuan, translating to over 150,000 yuan per square meter, but actual viewing activity is very low, with many properties seeing no viewings in the past 30 days [5][6] - Recent transactions in the area show prices between 134,000 and 146,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a significant drop from previous highs [6][8] Market Dynamics - Buyers are increasingly favoring properties with better price-performance ratios, such as Jianfa Haicheng, which has a registration average price of approximately 116,000 yuan per square meter, compared to the higher prices in Rongxin Century Jiangwan [6] - The emergence of price adjustments among sellers, with one property dropping from 14.60 million to 13.88 million yuan, suggests a shift in market sentiment and the fragility of price alliances among homeowners [8] School District Value Reevaluation - The recent announcement regarding teacher redistribution in the Yangpu District has led to a reevaluation of the value associated with school district properties, with some real estate agents removing "dual school district" labels from listings [13] - The overall sentiment in the market indicates that the premium attached to school district properties may diminish as educational equity becomes a policy focus [13]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that "anti-involution" is not limited to China, and "seizing pricing power" is a common goal of anti-involution, often achieved through "price alliances" internationally [1] - Price alliances have distinct characteristics, with sellers typically being fewer and from developed countries, leading to high market concentration, while buyers are numerous and dispersed, making it difficult for them to share effective trading information [2] - Products involved in price alliances are standardized, easy to store and transport, and have almost no substitutes [3] Group 2 - OPEC, established nearly a century ago, is the most renowned anti-involution price alliance, with key success factors including signing public agreements to allocate market shares, setting unified prices, and controlling or distributing product supply [5] - OPEC's strategies include maintaining the highest global oil production, adjusting alliance rules flexibly based on macroeconomic conditions, and establishing a transparent decision-making mechanism [6] - The article provides a detailed table of OPEC member countries, their reference production levels, adjustment amounts, production costs, oil prices, and profits, highlighting the economic dynamics within the alliance [7] Group 3 - The urgency of "anti-involution" is stressed, as other international industries are forming their own anti-involution alliances, posing a competitive threat [8] - Countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile are advancing the establishment of a "Lithium Triangle OPEC," while Indonesia has proposed a nickel group similar to OPEC, and Russia is discussing a gas OPEC with Qatar [9] Group 4 - The article suggests that resource advantages combined with manufacturing strengths form a nation's core competitiveness, and forming alliances to enhance competitiveness is the ultimate policy goal [15] - Recommendations for anti-involution alliances include implementing "quotas + price limits" to secure pricing power, collective bargaining to enhance industry synergy, and establishing dedicated institutions to monitor macroeconomic conditions [16]

Group 1: Key Insights on Anti-Overcompetition Strategies - The report emphasizes the need to "break the cycle of overcompetition," as highlighted by the General Secretary in July 2025, with a governance framework focusing on three dimensions: industry, enterprise, and government [3][10] - Effective price alliances are identified as a significant international strategy against overcompetition, characterized by public agreements on market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply limitations [3][10] - Successful examples of price alliances include OPEC and iron ore price alliances, which have established mechanisms for collective bargaining and market stability [10] Group 2: Company Performance Analysis - Kweichow Moutai (600519) - Kweichow Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, with a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [14] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 39.650 billion yuan, a 7.26% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.555 billion yuan, growing by 5.25% [14] - The company maintains a strong brand barrier and a robust business model, projecting net profits of 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 19x, 18x, and 17x [14] Group 3: Company Performance Analysis - Shuanghui Development (000895) - Shuanghui Development reported a total revenue of 28.503 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a net profit of 2.323 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3% and 1.17% respectively [15] - The company’s Q2 2025 revenue was 14.208 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.186 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.74% increase [15] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the meat products industry, with a high dividend payout ratio of 97% and a projected dividend yield of 5.7% for 2024 [15]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to "break the internal competition" as highlighted by the General Secretary in July 2025, with a structured approach focusing on three dimensions: industry, enterprise, and government [4][6] - The report identifies the formation of effective price alliances as a significant international strategy to combat internal competition, characterized by public agreements on market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply limitations [4][12] - Notable examples of successful price alliances include OPEC and the iron ore price alliance, which provide valuable lessons for domestic policy [4][44] Group 1: Price Alliances - Price alliances are defined by their key features: public agreements for market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply restrictions [12] - The report discusses the historical context and evolution of OPEC, highlighting its ability to maintain price stability through coordinated production adjustments among member countries [22][38] - The iron ore price alliance is presented as a model for collective negotiation, demonstrating the importance of industry collaboration to enhance bargaining power [4][40] Group 2: International Examples - Countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile are working towards establishing a "Lithium Triangle OPEC" to coordinate lithium production and pricing [44] - Indonesia has proposed a nickel group similar to OPEC, aiming to leverage its significant nickel reserves for better market positioning [46] - The report notes that Russia and Qatar have expressed interest in forming a natural gas output organization akin to OPEC, indicating a trend towards resource-based alliances [49] Group 3: Domestic Implications - The report suggests that China should establish industry alliances for key resources and manufacturing sectors, focusing on "quota + price limits" to secure pricing power and prevent market disruption [4][57] - It emphasizes the need for collective bargaining in industries like photovoltaics and new energy, advocating for a unified national approach to enhance negotiation strength [4][58] - The report outlines a strategic framework for managing key strategic resources, including refined export quotas and minimum price regulations to protect national interests [57]