当地时间19日，欧洲议会议长梅措拉在乌克兰最高拉达（议会）发表讲话时宣布，欧洲议会将在乌克兰 基辅设立常驻代表处。 梅措拉表示，欧盟即将通过对俄罗斯的第十九轮制裁方案。该方案的核心内容包括持续削减对俄罗斯石 油天然气的依赖以及打击俄罗斯的影子船队。 她指出，下一步将开启"基础集群"谈判环节。这标志着乌克兰入盟进程迈出了新的关键一步。此外，她 强调，恢复反腐败机构的职能是乌克兰加入欧盟的根本前提。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Group 1: Gold - The market is digesting an expected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year, and the Fed's independence is continuously affected. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the market rhythm [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,284 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. The weekly output is 761,100 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7975 million tons, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,325 level [1] Group 3: Crude Oil - Due to concerns about supply disruptions from attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of US central bank interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term cautious trading is recommended [3] Group 4: Rubber - Overseas raw material prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and spot inventories continue to decline. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and should be treated with a range - bound view [4] Group 5: PTA - As of September 12, the PTA load increased to 76.8%, a 3.9% week - on - week increase. The weekly output was 1.388 million tons, a 99,000 - ton week - on - week increase. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Group 6: Coking Coal - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the supply of coking coal at home and abroad has recovered. The downstream demand has increased, and a bullish - biased trading idea is recommended [6] Group 7: Manganese Silicon - The cost support for manganese silicon is limited. The market supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [7] Group 8: Rebar - On September 16, domestic steel market prices mostly rose. Driven by positive macro - expectations and rising costs, steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [7] Group 9: Short - term Treasury Bonds - In the third quarter, the bond - issuing rhythm may accelerate, and the expectation of tight liquidity increases, which is negative for the bond market. However, the positive factors for treasury bond futures are increasing [8] Group 10: Silver - US retail sales data is still growing positively month - on - month, which is bullish for silver. Before the interest rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [8] Group 11: Methanol - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,375 level [9] Group 12: Polypropylene - The start - up of polypropylene has increased, and the overall supply is still abundant. The 01 contract of PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 6,965 level [10]

俄乌冲突，又有新消息传来！ 俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫当地时间15日表示，北约事实上正在与俄罗斯交战。佩斯科夫称，北约实 际上已经参与了俄乌冲突，向乌方提供间接和直接的援助。 同一天，俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫对欧洲发出警告，称任何试图没收俄资产的欧洲国家都 将遭到追究。此前有消息称，欧盟正寻求新途径，利用数千亿美元被冻结的俄罗斯资产援助乌克兰。 同日，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，俄军控制了扎波罗热地区的奥利戈夫斯科耶居民点。同一天，乌克兰 武装部队总参谋部通报称，乌军在利曼、托雷茨克、波克罗夫斯克等方向击退俄军多次进攻。 佩斯科夫：北约正在与俄交战 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月15日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，北约在与俄罗斯作战，这不 需要任何补充性的证明。北约实际上已经参与了俄乌冲突，向乌方提供间接和直接的援助。因此，完全 可以说北约在同俄罗斯作战。 佩斯科夫还表示，俄罗斯依然有意愿通过政治和外交手段调解乌克兰危机，对对话保持开放立场与意 愿。但乌方人为地延阻这一进程，任何人都不想涉及冲突的本质。同时，欧洲国家也在施加干扰，没有 关注危机根本原因的打算。 此外，佩斯科夫还表示，有关俄美乌举行峰会 ...

（文章来源：央视新闻） 总台记者当地时间9月16日获悉，17日即将在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟政府代表会议议程中，关于欧盟对俄 第19轮制裁措施草案的讨论已被取消，目前尚未确定对此议题新的讨论日期。 ...

Core Points - Multiple NATO countries have announced the deployment of military aircraft and troops to strengthen the eastern flank of NATO in response to the recent drone incursions into Polish airspace, which Poland claims originated from Russia [1][3][4] - Poland is conducting its largest military exercise, involving the deployment of approximately 40,000 troops along its border, in light of perceived threats from Russian and Belarusian military activities [10][11] Group 1: Military Response - Following the drone incidents, Denmark, France, and Germany have committed to deploying military assets, including fighter jets, to support Poland's air defense [1][3] - The NATO operation named "Eastern Sentinel" has been initiated to enhance defense capabilities in Eastern Europe [1] Group 2: Political Reactions - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio described the drone incident as "unacceptable" and emphasized the need to determine whether it was a deliberate act against Poland [1][3] - Polish Prime Minister Tusk refuted claims that the drone incursions were accidental, asserting that they were intentional [3][4] Group 3: Military Exercises and Preparations - Poland has initiated a "preventive" air operation in response to the drone threats, which included closing an airport for two hours [9] - The ongoing military exercise "Steel Defender-25" is part of Poland's broader strategy to prepare for potential aggression from Russia and Belarus [10] Group 4: International Relations - Ukraine and Finland's leaders have called for new sanctions against Russia in light of the drone incursions, highlighting the need for a united response from European allies [3][4] - Russia has suggested that Poland's accusations lack evidence and has proposed cooperation to investigate the drone incident [6][7]

丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森周五在访问基辅期间表示，欧盟对俄罗斯的下一轮制裁必须"尽可能严厉"。拉斯 穆森说，担任欧盟六个月轮值主席国的丹麦将推动通过第19轮制裁，轮值期将于12月结束。"这必须是 一个全面的制裁方案，解决规避、影子舰队、金融部门……我们还需要加强跨大西洋合作，"他在与乌 克兰外长瑟比加举行的联合新闻发布会上说。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of energy security for Hungary and Slovakia, highlighting their reliance on Russian gas and oil to meet their energy needs [1] - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto and Slovak Foreign Minister Blanar reaffirmed their commitment to not allow the EU to overlook geographical realities and infrastructure conditions that could disrupt energy supplies [1] - Slovakia's Prime Minister Fico indicated that without a balanced approach to climate goals and industrial development, as well as solutions to electricity pricing issues, Slovakia would not support new sanctions against Russia [1]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Finnish President Stub was the incident of drones entering Polish airspace, which Zelensky attributed to Russian actions [1][2] - Zelensky expressed gratitude for Finland's support of the EU's new sanctions against Russia and reiterated Ukraine's aspirations to join the EU [2] - The Polish military responded to the drone incursions by shooting down several drones, which Poland claims originated from Russia, a claim that Russia denies [2] Group 2 - The Dutch Foreign Minister Van der Wal summoned the Russian ambassador to protest the drone incident and indicated the possibility of further sanctions against Russia [3] - The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the UN Security Council would hold an emergency meeting regarding the drone incursion at Poland's request [2] - Poland's air navigation services implemented air traffic control measures in the eastern region from September 10 to December 9 to ensure national security [2]

当地时间8月26日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃表示，如果欧盟限制俄外交官在欧盟境内的自由行 动，俄罗斯也将采取对等反制措施，严格限制欧盟外交人员在俄境内的活动自由。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 据悉，捷克外交部长此前表示，欧盟针对俄罗斯的第19轮制裁措施可能包含禁止俄罗斯外交官在申根区 内自由行动等内容。 当地时间8月19日，欧洲理事会举行视频会议讨论乌克兰问题华盛顿会晤。欧盟外交与安全政策高级代 表卡拉斯在会后表示，欧盟将继续针对俄罗斯采取措施，针对莫斯科的下一轮制裁方案预计将于9月出 台。 ...

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a projected decrease of 235 yuan/ton, with an increase in the expected drop by 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, translating to a decrease of 0.18-0.21 yuan per liter, exceeding the downward threshold [1][4] - The oil price is expected to continue its downward trend, with the possibility of exceeding a 300 yuan/ton decrease as the adjustment date approaches [4] Oil Market Performance - Recent performance of crude oil shows a decline, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down by 0.94% to $61.99 per barrel and Brent crude down by 0.92% to $65.92 per barrel [4] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and a reduction in expectations for supply disruptions, alongside OPEC+'s production increase policy [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory reported a decrease of approximately 2.4 million barrels, surpassing the expected reduction of 1.2 million barrels, which limited the decline in oil prices [4] Upcoming Data and Market Sentiment - The market is awaiting further data releases, including the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory and Eurozone inflation data, which could influence oil price movements [4] - The sentiment in the market remains cautious, with significant fluctuations expected in oil prices as new data is released [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The current fuel prices across various regions in China are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.91 yuan [6] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 0 diesel at 6.99 yuan [6]