Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed the operation of buying and selling government bonds, which is expected to support the real economy and stabilize market expectations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - As of November 4, 2023, the PBOC reported a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open market government bond transactions, indicating the resumption of operations that were paused since January [1][4]. - The PBOC's liquidity tools include various instruments, with a notable net injection of 200 billion yuan in government bonds, while other tools like the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) saw a net injection of 2000 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Signals - The current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, and the overall bond market is performing well, which supports the decision to resume bond transactions [4]. - The resumption of government bond transactions is seen as a signal to stabilize economic growth, particularly for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [4]. Group 3: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, maintaining liquidity in the banking system [5]. - The continuation of reverse repo operations is aimed at injecting medium-term liquidity into the market, with expectations of further operations in November [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released liquidity injection data for October 2025, indicating a mixed approach to monetary policy with both net withdrawals and injections across various tools [1] Summary by Category Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal - The short-term reverse repos saw a net withdrawal of 595.3 billion yuan - The buyout reverse repos experienced a net injection of 400 billion yuan - The net injection from open market government bond transactions was 20 million yuan - The medium-term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 200 billion yuan - The pledged supplementary lending (PSL) recorded a net withdrawal of 5.5 billion yuan [1] Monetary Policy Tools Overview - The central bank's structural monetary policy tools had a net withdrawal of 17.3 billion yuan - The standing lending facility (SLF) showed a net withdrawal of 2.4 billion yuan - The MLF had a total injection of 900 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 700 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan - The short-term reverse repos had a total injection of 47.453 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 53.406 billion yuan, leading to a net withdrawal of 5.953 billion yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restart of treasury bond trading is likely to enrich the liquidity injection structure rather than being a signal of further monetary easing. It helps enhance market confidence and avoid exacerbating the structural imbalance in the bond market demand. There is a possibility of the central bank buying long - term bonds for risk - prevention purposes, and the total scale of treasury bond purchases is expected to be lower than the same period last year [3]. - Without the boost of increased expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may show a downward trend with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be anchored at the lows after the interest rate cut in the first half of the year, with the yield floors of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On October 27, 2025, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced the restart of treasury bond trading in the open market [6]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Sub - indices such as production and new orders also showed a downward trend [7]. - On October 30, 2025, leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, reaching a consensus on resolving important economic and trade issues and promoting cooperation in various fields [11]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Movements - From October 27 to 31, 2025, the central bank injected 206.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.72 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120.08 billion yuan. It is expected that 206.8 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn from November 3 to 7 [13]. - The money market tightened due to the end - of - month effect, and the fund stratification phenomenon intensified. Policy rates and various short - term fund rates showed certain changes [16]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Movements and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs last week was 734.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.42 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 170.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.84 billion yuan. By the 44th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of inter - bank CDs for the year had reached 28.44 trillion yuan [20]. - The issuance rates of inter - bank CDs of various banks decreased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank CDs of all tenors showed a downward trend [23][26]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - In the last week of October, the supply of treasury bonds entered a window period. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 412.682 billion yuan, with a net financing of 324.196 billion yuan. From January to October, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was generally faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 5.40 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [29][37]. - The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds as of last week was 2.05 trillion yuan, mainly long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan [41]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The restart of treasury bond trading triggered bullish sentiment in the market, with interest rates generally showing a downward trend. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds of various tenors changed, and the term spreads of 10Y - 1Y treasury bonds and 10Y - 1Y policy - bank bonds also changed. The implied tax rate of 10 - year policy - bank bonds was slightly compressed [43]. - The daily average turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond and 10 - year policy - bank bond active bonds decreased. The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond and the secondary active bond was 5.4BP, and the spread between the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond and the secondary active bond slightly widened [47][49]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading decreased last week, maintaining an average level of around 7 trillion yuan on the other four days except for the impact of the month - end factor on Friday. The buying intensity of state - owned banks in the cash bond market weakened, and rural commercial banks accelerated their profit - taking and selling. Securities firms, funds, and insurance companies were the main bond buyers [56][66][69]. - In September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.68%, with the leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions being about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [57]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 0.80% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 3.14%, cathode copper futures increased by 0.54%, the cement price index increased by 1.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 0.82%. The CCFI index increased by 2.89%, and the BDI index decreased by 1.26%. Food prices such as pork and vegetables increased, while crude oil prices decreased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.09 [77]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The restart of treasury bond trading is mainly to enrich the liquidity injection structure. If there is no increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, the market from November to December may decline with fluctuations. Interest rate decline space will be limited, and the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds (old bonds) are expected to be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively [81][83]. - It is recommended to keep the portfolio duration in a moderately long range. In terms of allocation, high - quality coupon - bearing assets are preferred, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. In terms of trading, attention can be paid to the trading opportunities of medium - duration bonds such as secondary - tier capital bonds that have fallen significantly [84].

央行购债，值多少 BP？20251028 摘要 央行重启国债买卖旨在平衡市场需求，而非追求特定收益率目标，主要 通过干预市场预期来防止风险累积，并非基于绝对合理点位进行操作。 多种流动性投放工具中，重启国债买卖是为了在其他工具大量使用后， 避免过度投放流动性，同时支持政府债券发行，体现政策协调一致性。 未来几个月央行单月净买入国债规模预计较小，或在 1,000 亿左右甚至 更低，操作将集中在 11 月和 12 月，购买期限预计以 1-3 年短期为主， 可能适度扩展至 5 年。 市场对央行重启国债买卖存在分歧，一种观点认为降准降息概率降低， 另一种观点认为购买短期国债可能导致收益率突破政策利率，反映了市 场对政策意图和效果的不确定性。 债券市场调控工具包括买卖国债、降准和降息，各自独立，买卖国债主 要用于投放流动性，平衡供需，支持债券发行；降准改善银行流动性指 标；降息降低实体部门融资成本。 当前经济环境下，理论上可以考虑降息以降低实体融资成本，但具体实 施时点需评估实体融资需求。四季度尤其是 12 月是降准的最佳时点， 可显著改善银行流动性指标。 若当前降息，收益率存在约 5 个基点的交易机会。若央行继续买入 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Government Bond Trading Resumption Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the government bond market and its dynamics in the context of monetary policy and market expectations. Key Points and Arguments Government Bond Trading Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading in Q4 is not urgently needed as the central bank has other liquidity tools like MLF and OMO available [1][2][4] - The market has already priced in a 5 basis point benefit from the resumption, with actual results expected to be between 4 to 6 basis points [1][6] - The decision to resume trading in Q4 rather than September may be due to uncertainties in policy timing and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities [4] Market Expectations and Trends - The bond market is expected to exhibit a healthy state of bidirectional fluctuations in 2025, with periods of both increases and decreases [5] - The anticipated yield for the ten-year government bond by the end of the year is around 1.75%, with no-tax bonds expected to be between 1.65% and 1.70% [3][15] - The overall impact of the government bond trading policy is seen as neutral, but it may push the market towards a more favorable trading direction [6] Future Bond Market Dynamics - Over the next few years, the volume of government bond trading is expected to gradually increase, replacing the need for reserve requirement cuts [7] - Large banks are primarily purchasing short-term bonds, with a balanced approach towards medium to long-term bonds [8] - The bond market is predicted to perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with opportunities for long-duration bond trading [9] Interaction Between Stock and Bond Markets - There exists a certain degree of a seesaw effect between the stock and bond markets, but it is not absolute [10] - The transfer of household deposits to the stock market has limited impact on the bond market, with non-bank investors being the main source of fund diversion [10] Local Government Bond Rates - Future local government bond rates are expected to be around 2.4% to 2.5%, which may exert pressure on the equity market by setting a ceiling on bond yields [11] Fund Redemption Fee Policy - The impact of the fund redemption fee policy is limited, as funds have not truly exited the bond market but have instead been reinvested [12] Trade Friction and Market Impact - Trade friction has been partially priced into the market, and the resumption of government bond trading is seen as a clear trend despite ongoing pressures [14] Predictions for Q4 and Beyond - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound and correction in Q4, with specific yield targets set for various bonds by year-end [15] Other Important Insights - The central bank may take measures to balance liquidity if irrational downward movements occur in the bond market [4] - The transparency of government bond trading operations is expected to lead to more rational market reactions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a proactive monetary policy by injecting liquidity into the banking system through various tools, including a 900 billion yuan MLF operation and a 17 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, to maintain liquidity and support economic stability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, with a one-year term, marking a net injection of 200 billion yuan due to 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month [1]. - In addition to MLF, the PBOC has executed a 17 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, resulting in a net injection of 400 billion yuan after offsetting 13 trillion yuan of maturing agreements [3]. - Overall, the PBOC's net liquidity injection for October is projected to reach 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level consistent with September [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The PBOC's actions reflect a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, aimed at addressing liquidity pressures due to tax payment periods and month-end financial strains [3][4]. - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized, as the PBOC's liquidity support is intended to facilitate the issuance of government bonds, with an expected net financing of over one trillion yuan for October [4]. - The PBOC's liquidity injections are also designed to support credit expansion and meet the financing needs of the real economy, with new policy financial instruments expected to leverage around 50,000 billion yuan in effective investment [4]. Group 3: Market Stability and Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to stabilize market expectations and maintain stable medium- to long-term interest rates amid rising market rates influenced by various factors [5]. - Looking ahead, significant amounts of MLF and reverse repos are set to mature in the fourth quarter and early next year, prompting speculation about potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or bond purchases by the PBOC to further enhance liquidity [6]. - The market liquidity is expected to remain stable and ample until the end of the year, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on October 27, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 1 - The PBOC will conduct the MLF operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan for October, following the maturity of 700 billion yuan in MLF [1] - The combined liquidity release from MLF and reverse repos in October amounts to 600 billion yuan, maintaining the same scale as the previous month, reflecting the central bank's moderately accommodative monetary policy stance [1] - Since March, the MLF has shifted back to its role as a liquidity injection tool, providing stability for financial institutions amid pressures on net interest margins [1] Group 2 - The MLF operation has improved its bidding mechanism, allowing institutions to prepare for liquidity arrangements in advance, which enhances their ability to determine bidding rates based on demand [2] - The PBOC is expected to continue injecting medium-term liquidity into the market by utilizing both reverse repos and MLF as policy tools [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on October 27, maintaining liquidity in the banking system amid a backdrop of expiring MLFs and a consistent monetary policy approach [1][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan for October, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - The MLF operation is part of a broader strategy that includes open market operations and reverse repos, with a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity released in October, consistent with the previous month [3]. - Since March, the MLF has shifted back to its role as a liquidity provision tool, with market institutions expecting continued support through MLF and reverse repos to maintain liquidity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Mechanism - The MLF operation's bidding mechanism has been improved, allowing for pre-announcement of bidding results, which aids financial institutions in planning their liquidity needs [3]. - The multi-price bidding approach enhances the ability of institutions to set bidding rates according to their needs, improving market-driven pricing capabilities [3]. - Analysts predict that the PBOC will continue to utilize both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to inject 900 billion yuan through a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on October 27, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will conduct the MLF operation with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a one-year term [1]. - In October, 700 billion yuan of MLF is maturing, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month [1]. - The MLF has transitioned back to a liquidity provision tool since March, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and stabilizing expectations for financial institutions [3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Tools - The PBOC has also conducted two reverse repos in October, resulting in a total net injection of 400 billion yuan [3]. - Combined, the MLF and reverse repos have released 600 billion yuan of medium-term liquidity in October, consistent with the previous month [3]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject liquidity into the market [4]. Group 3: Bidding Mechanism Improvements - The MLF bidding mechanism has been improved, allowing for pre-announcement of bidding results, which helps institutions prepare for liquidity needs [3]. - The multi-price bidding method allows institutions to determine bidding rates based on demand, enhancing market-driven pricing capabilities [3].

Core Points - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan with a maturity of 3 months on October 9, using a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding method [2] - In October, 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos are set to mature, and the central bank's operation will result in a net liquidity injection of 400 billion yuan for the month [2] - Additionally, there are 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing in October, with a further 600 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos scheduled to be executed [2] Summary by Category - **Liquidity Injection** - The central bank's operation will lead to a net liquidity injection of 400 billion yuan for October [2] - The operation includes an additional 300 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos [2] - **Maturity of Reverse Repos** - A total of 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos will mature in October [2] - There are also 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing, with 600 billion yuan set to be executed on October 15 [2]