1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has returned to the main theme of oscillation, with short - term performance relatively strong. The central bank's series of operations, including conducting large - scale outright reverse repurchases and considering canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aim to release liquidity and stabilize market expectations. Logically, short - term interest - rate bonds and high - liquidity credit products may benefit, but the long - term market may still be affected by various factors and maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][6][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Trends - From July 14 - 18, the bond market maintained an oscillatory pattern, with most interest - rate bond yields declining. The adjustment pressure was mainly concentrated on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, especially 30 - year treasury bonds. As of July 18, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 2.1BP, - 1.9BP, 0.0BP, + 1.4BP, - 0.7BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.35%, 1.38%, 1.67%, 1.89%, 1.95% [1][9]. - The bond market showed a "reverse V - shaped" trend due to the combination of multiple factors such as the central bank's operations, economic data releases, and the central bank's public consultation on canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases [9]. 3.2 Central Bank's New Movements - During the tax payment period this week, the central bank continuously maintained net reverse repurchase injections and conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, releasing a signal of caring for the capital market. The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchases totaled 1.7268 trillion yuan, with 425.7 billion yuan due, achieving a net injection of 1.3011 trillion yuan. MLF due was 100 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase injection was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [9][17]. - As of July 18, R001 and R007 changed by + 8.4BP and - 0.1BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.49% and 1.51%; DR001 and DR007 increased by 11.4BP and 3.5BP respectively, reaching 1.46% and 1.51% [17]. - After the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in May and carried out outright reverse repurchases in advance in June, it conducted another 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in July, making outright operations gradually normalized, which shows the central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity and supporting broad credit and further stabilizes market expectations [2][19]. - The reasons for the central bank to conduct outright reverse repurchases are to hedge the capital gap and relieve the pressure on the bank's liability side to support the real - economy credit supply [19][21]. - Compared with pledged repurchases, outright reverse repurchases have longer terms, reduce the pressure of short - term tool roll - overs, weaken the dependence on the credit quality of bank collateral, lower the financing threshold for small and medium - sized banks, and improve the efficiency of liquidity release [3][23]. 3.3 Understanding the Central Bank's Cancellation of the Freeze of Collateral in Bond Repurchases - On July 18, the central bank publicly solicited opinions on the "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending Some Rules (Draft for Comment)", which included canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aiming to facilitate monetary policy operations such as open - market treasury bond trading and promote the high - level opening of the bond market [25]. - The reasons for the central bank to propose canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases are that the current pledged repurchase model in China leads to a large "precipitation" of high - grade bonds and low efficiency in collateral disposal when the financing party defaults, while international mature markets generally use outright repurchases where collateral can be circulated again. Also, canceling the freeze can unfreeze the 6 - trillion - yuan daily repurchase market and enhance the flexibility of domestic liquidity management [4][27]. - If the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases is canceled, the capital market is expected to see a pattern of "stable quantity and falling price". Short - term interest - rate bonds may benefit and have downward space, while long - term bonds may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen [5][32]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Points of Attention - Monday (July 21): China's 1Y and 5Y LPR quotes. - Tuesday (July 22): China's June bank foreign exchange settlement, US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. - Wednesday (July 23): US June M2 month - on - month, EU July Consumer Confidence Index. - Thursday (July 24): Eurozone July benchmark interest rate, Eurozone July overnight deposit rate. - Friday (July 25): China's July MLF injection, Eurozone June M2 year - on - year [37].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injected liquidity of HKD 46.7 billion into the banking system through the discount window [1] Group 1 - The liquidity injection aims to support the banking sector and ensure stability in the financial system [1] - The amount of HKD 46.7 billion reflects the HKMA's proactive measures in managing monetary conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has injected liquidity into the banking system through its discount window, amounting to HKD 46.7 billion [1] Group 1 - The liquidity injection aims to support the banking sector and ensure stability in the financial system [1] - The action reflects the HKMA's proactive approach to managing monetary conditions amid potential market fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - From June 23 to June 30, the PBOC conducted a total of 2,027.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, achieving a net injection of 1,067.2 billion yuan after offsetting 960.3 billion yuan of maturing repos [1] - In July, the overall net financing of government bonds is expected to be around 1,200 billion yuan, with a liquidity gap of approximately 1,000 billion yuan after excluding MLF and reverse repo maturities [1] Group 2 - Fiscal factors are anticipated to have an increasing impact on liquidity in July, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting government bond purchases to inject liquidity [2] - The PBOC's willingness to maintain liquidity support is expected to continue beyond the quarter-end, even if it does not restart government bond purchases or utilize total tools [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, including a 300 billion MLF operation and a net injection of 1180 billion due to maturing MLFs [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, 2025, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion after 1820 billion MLF matures in June [1]. - In June, the PBOC has increased mid-term liquidity injections, conducting a total of 14,000 billion reverse repos on June 6 and June 16 [2]. - The total net injection of mid-term liquidity in June has exceeded 3000 billion, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining liquidity [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Expectations - Maintaining ample liquidity helps prevent abnormal fluctuations in the funding environment and stabilizes market expectations, which is crucial given the large-scale issuance of government bonds and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2]. - The PBOC's actions signal a continued commitment to using quantitative monetary policy tools to meet the financing needs of enterprises and households [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the PBOC will continue to exceed the renewal of maturing MLFs and utilize various monetary policy tools to keep liquidity abundant in the second half of the year [4]. - There is a possibility of the PBOC adopting measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support, especially with the expected acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter [4]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the potential resumption of government bond purchases by the PBOC, which is seen as a key tool for liquidity injection and reducing the cost of liabilities in the banking and financial system [4][5].

Group 1 - The central bank has implemented a net MLF injection of 118 billion yuan in June, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity support [1][2] - The total net liquidity injection for June, including reverse repos, reached 318 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to maintaining market liquidity [1][3] - The central bank's actions are aimed at stabilizing the banking system's liquidity amid increased government bond issuance and the peak of interbank certificates of deposit maturities [2][4] Group 2 - In July, the liquidity gap is projected to reach 1 trillion yuan, with significant pressure from fiscal spending and government bond repayments [4][5] - Historical trends suggest that the central bank typically increases liquidity injections at the end of June, which may provide additional support in July [4][6] - The central bank is expected to continue its accommodative stance, potentially utilizing government bond transactions to enhance liquidity [4][5]

Group 1 - The central bank's proactive policy operations and information disclosure have met the liquidity needs at the end of the quarter while enhancing market confidence through forward-looking policy communication [1][3] - Since June, the People's Bank of China has signaled an increase in medium-term liquidity injection through two consecutive announcements of reverse repos, including a 1 trillion yuan operation on June 5 and a 400 billion yuan operation on June 13 [1][2] - By the end of June, the central bank is expected to achieve a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan, with 500 billion yuan from the 3-month reverse repos and a net withdrawal of 300 billion yuan from the 6-month reverse repos [1] Group 2 - The continuous increase in reverse repo operations in June, following a May reserve requirement ratio cut, serves three policy purposes: countering the pressure from government bond issuance and interbank certificate maturities, signaling ongoing quantitative monetary policy efforts, and improving transparency in monetary policy operations [2] - In May, the central bank's long-term liquidity supply exceeded 1 trillion yuan, effectively offsetting the pressure from government bond net payments, which reached 9,102 billion yuan, the highest since 2025 [2] - Market participants expect the central bank to continue using various tools, including pledged reverse repos and MLF, to maintain reasonable liquidity levels and support effective credit growth in the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, indicating a clear intention to release short-term liquidity in response to market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: PBOC's Actions and Market Impact - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a three-month term, marking the first time the central bank has announced such an operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - The announcement aims to enhance market communication and stabilize market expectations, with the bank's willingness to release liquidity increasing as speculative demand in the bond market declines [1][2]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond futures trading volume has significantly decreased, reflecting a reduced willingness to speculate on long-term interest rates [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Pressure and Seasonal Factors - June faces significant liquidity pressure due to the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 200 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), along with 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing, which is a historical monthly high [2]. - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for credit issuance, and the government is expected to accelerate the use of funds for debt replacement, further exacerbating liquidity fluctuations [2]. - The PBOC's actions are expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the funding environment, as indicated by the decline in the 7-day repo rate to around 1.5%, closer to the current policy rate of 1.4% [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The PBOC's proactive approach in announcing reverse repurchase operations enhances the transparency of monetary policy and is likely to support stock market valuations [2]. - The continuous upgrade in the PBOC's expectation management is expected to foster a more favorable risk appetite in the capital markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's unprecedented announcement of a large-scale reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of June aims to stabilize market confidence and address liquidity concerns in the interbank certificate of deposit (NCD) market, particularly in light of the significant maturity of NCDs this month [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On June 5, the central bank announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation starting June 6, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2]. - This operation is part of a series of reverse repurchase actions that have been ongoing for eight months, aimed at enhancing liquidity management within a year [2][5]. - Analysts believe that the early announcement of this operation is intended to alleviate market anxiety regarding the large NCD maturities, which amount to 4.2 trillion yuan in June, a significant increase from May [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the central bank's announcement, there are initial signs of a downward trend in NCD issuance rates, with the one-year NCD rate dropping from 1.82% to 1.80% [4]. - The weighted average issuance rate for NCDs was 1.71%, showing a slight increase of 1 basis point compared to the previous period, indicating a stabilization in the banking sector's funding pressures [4][6]. - The upcoming week is critical for observing NCD market performance, with over 1.2 trillion yuan in NCDs maturing, the largest single-week maturity volume on record [8]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the central bank will continue to use reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) as channels for maintaining reasonable liquidity levels [5][10]. - There is a consensus that the central bank's liquidity management will be proactive, especially with the seasonal pressures of government bond issuance and the need for banks to manage their balance sheets effectively [7][9]. - The potential for increased MLF operations in response to maturing reverse repos is anticipated, with a focus on maintaining stability in the liquidity environment [10].