记者丨余纪昕 编辑丨周炎炎 肖嘉 金珊 视频 丨 陈泽锴 3月6日，十四届全国人大四次会议经济主题记者会召开。中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席记者会并回答记者提问。 潘功胜：中国金融市场融资结构正发生深刻变化 潘功胜介绍，2025年以来，人民银行按照党中央决策部署，在中央金融委员会的指导下，实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化央行政策 与市场关切的契合度和针对性。在总量、利率、结构等方面，推出了多项政策举措，支持实体经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市 场平稳运行。 今年年初，人民银行发布了结构性货币政策工具的若干调整安排：下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，扩大投放规模和支 持范围，完善政策要素，并单设1万亿元民营企业再贷款。同时，保持流动性合理充裕。今年以来，也就是过去两个月，人民银行通 过公开市场各类工具投放中长期资金约2万亿元。总体看，社会融资条件保持宽松，金融总量合理增长。 今年1月末及2月份的货币金融数据，将在一周后发布。初步来看，社会融资规模同比增长8.2%，广义货币M2同比增长9%，社 会综合融资成本保持低位运行。1月份新发放企业贷款和个人住房贷款加权平均利率分别为3.2%和3.1%，处于历史低位水平。 ...

2026 年 03 月 06 日 宏观宏观点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 从政府工作报告看 2026 年经济发展新思路 最近一年走势 相关报告 《 中 国 经 济 的 新 亮 点 和 新 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2026-01-20 《宏观深度研究：从成交结构看购房者行为变化* 夏磊》——2025-10-29 事件： 2026 年 3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大四次会议在北京开幕，李强代表 国务院，向十四届全国人大四次会议作政府工作报告。 《政府工作报告》（以下简称"报告"）回顾 2025 年工作，锚定"十 五五"时期主要目标和重大任务，明确 2026 年经济社会发展总体要 求和政策取向，部署 2026 年政府工作任务。 投资要点: 2026 年经济增长目标兼顾需要和可能 总体要求上，提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前 瞻性针对性协同性"，"扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存 量"。政策取向上，"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度"。同时，"强化改革举措与宏观政策协同 ...

春回大地，万象更新。2026年全国两会大幕将启，作为永恒的主题，"粮食安全"将再次站上"C位"，成 为代表委员们建言献策的焦点话题。今年的讨论将不再局限于"产粮多少斤"的传统叙事，而是更深层地 指向一个核心命题：在耕地资源逼近极限、劳动力结构深刻变化的背景下，如何构建一个高效、可持续 的金融支撑体系，将"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"的战略真正落地为粮食生产的现实效能，从而全方位夯 实"大国粮仓"的根基。 站在"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的历史交汇点，回望过去五年，我国粮食产量连续稳定在 1.3万亿斤以上，2024年更是首次迈上1.4万亿斤新台阶，人均粮食占有量达500公斤，远超国际公认的安 全线。这一亮眼"成绩单"的背后，离不开金融系统的强力支撑。从中国人民银行推出结构性货币政策工 具，到国开行、农发行、农业银行等金融机构巨量的信贷投放，再到三大主粮完全成本保险的基本全覆 盖，一个目标清晰、协同高效、精准有力的粮食安全金融保障体系已初具雏形。 第十四届全国政协常委、南京财经大学校长程永波认为，金融支撑是贯彻落实国家粮食安全战略、夯实 粮食产能根基的重要途径。"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"需要长期稳定的资金投入，通过 ...

10 年期国债阶段性高点或在 1.9%左右 ——1 月利率运行分析与展望 本期要点 1 月热点回顾：央行推出 8 项结构性货币政策组合工具，延续"精准滴灌"和"结构优 化"调控思路 专题研究 （2026 年 1 月） 利率研究 结构性降息落地， 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王肖梦 xmwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王临远（实习生） 中诚信国际 研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 货币政策将延续支持性立场，收益率核心 区间或为 1.7%-1.9%，2026 年 1 月 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号， 2025 年 8 月 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望，2025 年 8 月 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂，降准降 息可期利率难改下行趋势，2025 年 7 月 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会，2025 年 6 月 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-664287 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while monitoring liquidity and financial market changes [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the importance of maintaining liquidity in the banking system and using various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable growth in social financing and money supply, aligning with economic growth and price expectations [1] - Experts suggest that the cumulative effects of the moderately accommodative monetary policy will continue to manifest, with both incremental and stock policies working together to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] Group 2: Support for Economic Structure Transformation - The report includes measures to optimize financial services to support economic structure transformation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [2] - In January 2026, the PBOC announced policies to lower interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and enhance support for key areas, indicating a comprehensive coverage of financial services for the "Five Major Financial Tasks" [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Consumption and Housing - The report stresses the need to build a robust pension financial system and support the development of the silver economy, while also promoting financial policies to boost service consumption and improve housing finance systems [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Transmission - The report calls for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that short-term market interest rates align with central bank policy rates [4] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range [4] Group 5: Liquidity Management - Recent statistics indicate that the PBOC has injected a net of 6 trillion yuan into the market through open market operations in 2025, reflecting a relatively loose social financing condition [5] - The adjustment in asset allocation by residents does not imply significant changes in liquidity, as most funds are redirected back into the banking system, indicating a shift in the structure of bank deposits rather than a decrease in overall liquidity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with a GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy and effective financial measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets [1]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit by utilizing various monetary policy tools, ensuring ample liquidity to meet the effective credit demands of the real economy [2]. - The PBOC plans to lower social financing costs by reducing policy interest rates and other related rates, thereby supporting the overall financing environment [2]. - There will be increased support for major strategic areas and weak links, with specific allocations such as 300 billion yuan for technology innovation and agricultural loans, and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [2]. - The PBOC will ensure the stability of the exchange rate, allowing the market to play a decisive role in its formation while maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [2]. Economic Indicators - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) are projected to grow by 8.3% and 8.5% respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - The growth rate of loans, after adjusting for local government debt impacts, is expected to be around 7%, indicating strong credit support [3]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are projected to be around 3.1% [3]. - Various loan categories, including technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy loans, are expected to see double-digit growth rates, with technology loans growing by 11.5% and green loans by 20.2% [3]. External Economic Environment - The global economic landscape is facing challenges such as insufficient growth momentum, increased trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, leading to uncertainties in inflation and monetary policy adjustments [4]. - Despite these challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with advantages and resilience that support long-term positive trends [4]. Future Policy Directions - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be a flexible approach to using various policy tools to maintain liquidity and support balanced credit distribution, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [5]. - The PBOC aims to enhance its macro-prudential management and financial stability frameworks to prevent systemic financial risks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is injecting liquidity into the market through various monetary policy tools, including a significant increase in reverse repos, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system during February, a month typically characterized by high credit demand [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On February 4, the PBOC conducted an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of three months, marking the first increase in this type of operation in four months, indicating a proactive approach to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1]. - The operation was necessitated by the maturity of 700 billion yuan in three-month reverse repos in February, resulting in a net increase of 100 billion yuan in liquidity for the month [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Economic Analysis - According to Dong Ximiao, Chief Economist at Zhongan, February is a month with concentrated bank credit issuance, compounded by cash withdrawal demands before the Spring Festival, leading to increased liquidity needs in the market [1]. - Dong Ximiao anticipates that around February 15, the PBOC will conduct a six-month reverse repo operation, potentially maintaining or increasing the current liquidity levels [1]. - The PBOC has been consistently injecting liquidity through various tools, including a 900 billion yuan one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation in January, which resulted in a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: January Liquidity Injection Details - In January, the PBOC's liquidity injection included a net MLF injection of 700 billion yuan, a net outflow of 79 billion yuan from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF), and a net injection of 641 billion yuan from other structural monetary policy tools [2]. - The open market operations in January also included a net injection of 1 billion yuan from government bond transactions and a net injection of 1.678 billion yuan from seven-day reverse repos [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and asset allocation outlook for 2026, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Market Review - Global markets showed an overall increase in January, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [6][15] - Major commodities experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly metals, which saw a sharp correction at the end of the month [6][15] - Domestic asset performance was mixed, with equities showing high volatility, interest rates declining, and commodities performing strongly [10][15] 2. Domestic Macro Insights - Economic indicators suggest a stable start to the year, with PPI declines expected to narrow due to various factors including rising metal prices [20][22] - Credit demand in Q1 is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on the performance of new home sales post-Spring Festival [23][25] - The central bank has implemented structural interest rate cuts and indicated potential for further easing, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [26][28] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with various support measures for small and medium enterprises and consumer loans [29][33] 3. Overseas Macro Insights - The U.S. economy may have reached a bottom, as indicated by recent employment data showing a rebound in non-farm payrolls [39][41] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration are shifting towards more aggressive measures, with potential implications for international trade [42][45] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair raises questions about future monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments [49][51] 4. Asset Allocation Outlook - A-shares are viewed as having reasonable valuation levels, with a slight preference for growth stocks in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal effects [56][66] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well in the medium term, supported by domestic economic stabilization and potential foreign capital inflows [67][69] - Interest rates are likely to remain in a range-bound state, with limited upside potential [70][72] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to stay elevated due to ongoing fiscal pressures, despite recent rate cuts by the Fed [73][75] - The AI sector is identified as a key driver for U.S. stock performance, with implications for technology investments [76][78] 5. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to experience increased volatility due to geopolitical factors, although overall supply may remain excessive [81][83] - Copper prices are projected to remain strong amid tight supply conditions, while gold is anticipated to see short-term fluctuations [84][89] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring credit demand and fiscal policy developments as indicators of economic health [23][29] - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics and market sentiment was emphasized [42][45] - The discussion on the structural changes in the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy and asset allocation strategies was noted as critical for investors [51][52]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Jiangxi Branch aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy by 2025, utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity and support the financing needs of the real economy [1][2] - By the end of December 2025, Jiangxi's total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 66,886 billion yuan, an increase of 4,370 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - The province's deposit balance reached 67,905 billion yuan, with an increase of 5,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9% [1] Financial Support and Credit Structure - Jiangxi has intensified financial support in key sectors, with manufacturing loans reaching 6,318 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate by 7.4 percentage points [2] - The service sector, excluding real estate, saw loans amounting to 27,394 billion yuan, with an annual increase of 2,797 billion yuan, accounting for 64% of the total loan increment, which is a 13.4 percentage point increase from 2024 [2] Policy Framework and Sectoral Growth - The People's Bank of China Jiangxi Branch, in collaboration with local financial management departments, has established a policy framework for the "Five Major Financial Articles," which aims to enhance the effectiveness of structural monetary policy tools [2] - By the end of 2025, loans in the "Five Major Financial Articles" sectors totaled 29,032 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [2] - Key sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy saw significant loan growth rates of 17.4%, 25.6%, 11.6%, 79.4%, and 22.1% respectively, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [2]

Group 1: Financial Support and Policy Impact - The issuance of a 150 million yuan loan has addressed the urgent funding needs for technological transformation at Guangdong Rifa Cable Co., which plans to build an automated production project with an expected production efficiency increase of 20%-50% [1] - The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of structural monetary policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various policy tool rates and an expansion of the re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation to 1.2 trillion yuan [1][4] - The Agricultural Bank of China provided a tailored financial service plan for Huafei Textile, including a 150 million yuan project loan, leveraging the favorable policy environment created by the recent interest rate cuts [2] Group 2: Bank Lending and Economic Support - The Transportation Bank of Guangdong has supported nearly 200 technology enterprises and 25 technological transformation projects, with a total credit investment exceeding 6.5 billion yuan, significantly reducing interest expenses for enterprises [3] - The recent reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates has enabled banks to obtain funds at lower costs from the central bank, enhancing their ability to issue loans to qualifying enterprises [3] - The People's Bank of China has already disbursed 5.036 billion yuan in re-lending and rediscount funds to financial institutions following the rate cuts, effectively transmitting policy benefits to agricultural, small, and private enterprises [2][3] Group 3: Future Expectations and Industry Focus - The optimization of structural monetary policy tools is expected to guide financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and support for small and micro enterprises, with a specific focus on a 1 trillion yuan re-lending quota for private enterprises [4][5] - Analysts believe that the enhancements in structural monetary policy tools reflect the government's commitment to supporting specific industries, which will help stabilize market expectations and attract more social capital into these sectors [5] - The central bank aims to utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas of the national economy, including technology innovation, manufacturing transformation, and consumption stimulation, ensuring a foundation for long-term high-quality development [5]