管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 2015年"8·11"汇改之前，在相当长时间内，中国人民银行（即中国央行）通过入市收购外汇储备的方式 阻止人民币汇率过快升值。由此，外汇占款成为央行基础货币投放的主要渠道。在外汇储备持续大幅增 加的背景下，这制约了央行货币调控的自主空间。 "8·11"汇改以来，在经历了初期高烈度跨境资本流动冲击后，央行恢复汇率政策中性，逐步淡出了外汇 市场常态干预，货币投放随之转向对内信贷渠道为主。但央行货币调控与国际上的成熟做法仍有一定差 距，亟待增加短期国债供给，完善国债公开市场操作。 货币政策曾为汇率政策所绑架 央行调节境内市场流动性有对外和国内两个渠道。其中，对外渠道主要指通过外汇、黄金占款渠道吞吐 基础货币；国内渠道主要指通过国债公开市场买卖、再贴现和存款准备金率调整。全球主要央行一般通 过国内渠道进行货币数量调控，且近年来已基本取消了存款准备金率工具，保留了国债公开市场买卖和 再贴现。 国债是财政货币政策的重要结合点。国债既是财政筹资的重要手段，通过国债规模的扩张与收缩可以实 现逆周期调控，同时也是重要的金融产品，是央行实施货币调控、金融机构进行资产负债管理的重要工 具。中国先后于1 ...

2001年以来，亚洲金融危机影响逐渐消退，同时为应对互联网泡沫破灭、美国经济危机和"9·11"恐怖袭 击，美联储大幅降息、美元趋势性走弱，人民币重现升值压力，中国恢复了国际资本回流、外汇储备增 加的局面。2001~2004年，人民银行新增外汇占款与新增基础货币投放之比平均为137.4%。输入性流动 性过剩成为当时国内信贷膨胀、通货膨胀和资产泡沫的重要根源。为对冲外汇占款增加引起的货币过多 投放，人民银行提高了法定存款准备金率，并于2003年4月起开始了中央银行票据（下称"央票"）的常 态化发行，以弥补外汇对冲操作工具的不足。彼时已恢复了本币公开市场操作，只是主要工具变成了央 票、政策性金融债等。 2005年"7·21"汇改之后，人民币重归真正的有管理浮动，汇率弹性增加，加之全球主要央行为应对2008 年金融危机采取了货币"大放水"措施，加剧了中国稳汇率的压力。2005~2013年间，人民银行新增外汇 占款与新增基础货币投放之比有6个年份超过了100%，9年平均为132.5%，中国输入性流动性过剩及其 衍生的问题更加突出，外汇对冲操作的任务更加繁重。 健全央行货币调控机制，更为关键的是研究财政增发短期国债。 2 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.16% and trading volume shrinking to less than 2.4 trillion yuan [1] - The margin trading balance also decreased by over 8.5 billion yuan, indicating a potential cooling of market risk appetite in the short term [1] Monetary Policy - In August, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented significant liquidity injections, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan through Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a stance of "moderate easing" in monetary policy, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system and supporting credit expansion [2] Tax Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax exemptions to support the transfer of state-owned equity and cash income to the social security fund, effective from April 1, 2024 [2][3] - These tax incentives are designed to lower operational costs for the receiving entities and enhance the long-term efficiency and profitability of the social security fund [3] Market Performance - As of September 3, the A-share market saw a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, while the ChiNext Index experienced a slight increase of 0.95% [4] - Among the sectors, only the comprehensive, communication, and electric equipment sectors saw gains, while defense, non-bank financials, and computer sectors faced significant declines [4] Fund Flow - The market turnover was recorded at 23.96 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day, with the margin trading balance also declining [5]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported liquidity injection data for August 2025, indicating a mixed approach to monetary policy with both net injections and withdrawals across various tools [1] Group 1: Liquidity Tools Overview - The net injection from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) was 0.2 billion yuan, while the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) saw a net injection of 300 billion yuan [1] - The PBOC conducted a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) and a net withdrawal of 53.4 billion yuan via short-term reverse repos [1] - A net injection of 300 billion yuan was recorded from the buyout reverse repos, with no public market transactions for government bonds during the month [1] Group 2: Detailed Tool Performance - The SLF had a total lending of 1.6 billion yuan and a repayment of 1.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 0.2 billion yuan [2] - The MLF had total lending of 600 billion yuan and repayments of 300 billion yuan, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan [2] - The PSL had total lending of 4 billion yuan and repayments of 16.12 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan [2] - The short-term reverse repos had total lending of 63.146 billion yuan and repayments of 63.680 billion yuan, leading to a net withdrawal of 53.4 billion yuan [2] - The buyout reverse repos had total lending of 12 billion yuan and repayments of 9 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 3 billion yuan [2] - The central treasury cash management showed total lending of 1.2 billion yuan and repayments of 2.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gradually incorporating government bond trading into its monetary policy toolkit to manage liquidity and support economic growth, reflecting a cautious approach compared to major developed economies [1][5][8]. Group 1: Central Bank Bond Trading Practices - Major developed economies, including the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, have utilized government bond trading extensively as a tool for liquidity adjustment and quantitative monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The scale of government bonds held by central banks in these economies has significantly increased, with the Federal Reserve holding $5.77 trillion in US government bonds by June 2022, accounting for 64.7% of its total assets [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's bond holdings reached approximately $5.3 trillion by the end of 2020, representing 76.5% of its total assets, indicating aggressive bond purchasing strategies [2][3]. Group 2: China's Central Bank Strategy - The PBOC's bond trading strategy is characterized by caution, having only engaged in limited short-term bond trading in specific circumstances over the past decades [5][6]. - As of May 2025, the PBOC held approximately 2.4 trillion yuan (about $338.3 billion) in government bonds, which is significantly lower than the holdings of central banks in developed countries [13][14]. - The PBOC's bond trading is designed to be flexible and responsive, allowing for small-scale, short-term operations to maintain liquidity without causing significant market disruptions [9][14]. Group 3: Future Directions and Policy Focus - The PBOC is expected to maintain a steady pace of increasing its government bond holdings, with a focus on balancing liquidity needs and market stability [16][18]. - There is a need for the PBOC to align its bond trading operations with fiscal policy expansion and the overall economic growth trajectory, ensuring that bond supply meets market demand [19][20]. - The central bank's bond trading operations will likely remain limited by the overall supply of government bonds and the fiscal constraints on debt expansion [15][19].

"央行将根据形势用好质押式逆回购、买断式逆回购、MLF等流动性投放工具，营造适宜的货币金融环 境，不排除适时开展公开市场国债买卖。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。(记者张莫) 数据还显示，7月常备借贷便利(SLF)投放14亿元，回笼17亿元，净投放-3亿元。7月，抵押补充贷款 (PSL)投放1163亿元，回笼3463亿元，净投放-2300亿元。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议指出，"宏观政策要持续用力、更加给力"，其中提到，"要综合运用多 种货币政策工具，加大金融对实体经济的支持力度，促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降"。日前，中国人 民银行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会也指出，继续实施好适度宽 松的货币政策。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构保持信贷合理增长，使社 会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 中国人民银行8月4日发布2025年7月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。数据显示，7月，中期借贷便利 (MLF)投放4000亿元，回笼3000亿元，净投放1000亿元。7月，买断式逆回购投放1.4万亿元，回笼1.2万 亿元，净投放 ...

Historical Context - From 1949 to 1977, China's monetary policy served as an administrative tool under a unified banking system, lacking market foundations and credit creation mechanisms[3][4]. - Post-1978, the separation of central and commercial banking functions led to an independent monetary policy framework, establishing a dual-layer currency creation mechanism[4][5]. Transition Phases - From 1998 to 2012, a quantity-based control system emerged, with M2 and total credit volume as core targets, driven by non-market interest rates and external pressures[5][6]. - After 2012, the effectiveness of quantity tools diminished, prompting a shift towards price-based monetary policy, with interest rates becoming central to regulation[6][7]. Structural Changes - By 2020, the proportion of new RMB loans in total social financing dropped from 91.9% in 2002 to 57.5%, indicating a shift towards off-balance-sheet financing[7][30]. - The balance of current accounts as a percentage of GDP decreased from around 10% in 2007 to below 3% post-2011, reflecting changes in foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy dynamics[7][34]. Policy Mechanisms - The establishment of a rate corridor in 2015 clarified policy signals, with the SLF as the upper limit and excess reserve rates as the lower limit, enhancing market expectations[9][10]. - As of 2023, the monetary policy framework has been optimized to strengthen the price-oriented function of policy rates, narrowing the rate corridor from 245 basis points to 70 basis points[10][11]. Future Outlook - The price-based framework is expected to deepen, with structural monetary policy tools gaining priority to address financing gaps in emerging sectors like technology and green industries[12][11]. - The focus will shift from total quantity control to structural optimization, emphasizing targeted resource allocation in key areas such as housing and infrastructure[12][11].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 985 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,668 billion yuan due to 3,653 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][12] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a slight decline across various maturities, with the 7-day Shibor falling below 1.5%. Specifically, the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.20 basis points to 1.3650%, the 7-day Shibor dropped by 3.30 basis points to 1.4970%, and the 14-day Shibor fell by 1.50 basis points to 1.5540% [1][2][3] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates continued to decline slightly. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 0.8 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively, to 1.3597% and 1.4191%, with transaction volumes decreasing for DR001 and increasing for R001. Similarly, DR007 and R007 rates decreased by 4.0 basis points and 4.9 basis points, respectively [4][9] Funding Conditions - Overall funding conditions remained loose, with overnight rates trading in the range of 1.30%-1.55% and 7-day rates around 1.53%-1.58%. By the end of the trading day, the overnight rates had further eased to around 1.30% [9][10] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Issuance - On July 2, there were 50 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 770.3 million yuan, indicating active market participation [9][10]

Core Insights - The central bank reported that a total of 1.9 billion yuan was utilized in the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) operations in June [1] Group 1 - The total amount of SLF operations conducted in June was 1.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.9 billion yuan in Standing Lending Facility (SLF) operations in June [1] Group 1 - The total amount of SLF operations in June was 1.9 billion yuan [1]