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玉米类市场周报:政策性拍卖发酵,玉米期价继续回落-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures continued to decline this week. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, the purchase of reserve depots in the Northeast has increased, but high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises. The rumor of wheat and reserve corn regulation and release has led to the release of grain sources, causing the price to decline. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rising temperature stimulates the willingness of grain holders to sell. Feed enterprises have low willingness to replenish stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have limited ability to accept high - priced corn. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from last week. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. However, the stocking before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival may boost the downstream demand, and some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,192 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but the reduction of ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, Northeast reserve depots' increased purchase supports the market bottom, but high prices limit demand. Rumors and rising temperature in North China and Huanghuai regions lead to increased supply and price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Abundant raw material supply and rising operating rate increase supply - side pressure, with inventory rising. However, pre - holiday stocking and tapioca starch price increase may boost demand. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures continued to decline, with a total position of 1,004,517 lots, an increase of 67,310 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also continued to decline, with a total position of 141,225 lots, an increase of 32,215 lots from last week [15]. 3.2.2. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 82,982, compared with - 111,571 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 28,994, compared with - 37,848 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 52,650 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 2,500 lots [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 157 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 208 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 36 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 47 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contract of starch and corn was 300 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,516.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 166.78 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton compared with last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of December 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, an increase of 125,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons [45]. - As of December 18, the total sales progress of corn in the main producing areas was 42%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year [58]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons or 86.67% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous month [62]. - As of December 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.98 days, an increase of 0.45 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63% [66]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads or 2.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 12.33 million heads or 2.9% quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads or 1.12% month - on - month [70]. - As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 163.34 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 240.69 yuan/head [73]. - As of December 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 379 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 708 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 202 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of December 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.24 million tons, an increase of 10.20% [81]. - From December 11 to 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 328,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.32% [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of December 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.84% from 10.56% last week. The implied volatility decreased this week and was at a relatively low level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].
——2025年玉米及玉米淀粉市场回顾与2026年展望:玉米:青纱帐起接天势,金缕风回落地痕
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the corn futures price showed a "rise - fall - rise" trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the corn futures price is expected to rise first and then fall, with the key points being the release rhythm and time of old grain and the expected difference in total quantity confirmation. The price of CBOT corn may gradually bottom out and rebound, which will support the domestic corn market sentimentally. The consumption side is expected to be in a slow de - capacity game stage, and the domestic corn yield in the next year is initially expected to remain stable, but the weather uncertainty makes the driving force unclear. The expected fluctuation ranges of corn contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2200 - 2350, 2170 - 2340, and 2230 - 2360 respectively. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [2]. - In 2025, the center of the corn starch futures price did not change significantly, and the fluctuation trend was basically the same as that of the cost corn futures price, showing a "rise - fall - rise" rhythm. In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to remain relatively balanced, and the profit game will still be the main theme. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost. The expected operating ranges of corn starch contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2480 - 2660, 2460 - 2670, and 2560 - 2700 respectively. It is also recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The corn futures price trend can be divided into six stages since 2004. Each stage is affected by policies, economic situations, and supply - demand relationships. For example, from 2004 - 2008, without the temporary storage purchase policy, the corn price rose continuously; from 2008 - 2015, the corn market was supported by the temporary storage purchase policy; from 2015 - 2016, it entered the post - temporary storage policy era, and the price fell sharply [13][14][18]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The futures price of the main corn contract in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating pattern, which can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to mid - October, and rebounding from late October to November. The price center at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year [22]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn spot price in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating trend, and the operating range at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year. The price showed a "rise - fall - rebound" pattern, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather [24][26]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: In 2025, the trading activity of the corn futures market increased compared with the previous year. The cumulative trading volume from January to November was 163,009,844 lots, a year - on - year increase of 15.30%, and the cumulative trading volume was 36,872 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.33%. The overall position - holding level was slightly higher than that in 2024, showing a distribution characteristic of "high at both ends and low in the middle" [28]. 3.2 Corn Starch Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The price trend of corn starch futures is highly correlated with that of corn futures. It can be divided into six stages since 2014, affected by factors such as corn price, supply - demand, and policies [35][36]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The corn starch futures price in 2025 showed an oscillating trend, with limited change in the annual fluctuation center. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to October, and rebounding in November, which is basically consistent with the trend of the raw material corn price [40]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn starch spot price in 2025 first rose and then fell, following the trend of the raw material corn price. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, consolidating narrowly from July to August, and falling from September to November [41]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative trading volume of corn starch futures was 33,603,107 lots, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%, but the cumulative trading volume was 8,711.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%. The overall position - holding scale remained relatively stable, and the position - holding volume at the end of November was 330,503 lots, slightly higher than that in the same period of 2024 [45]. 3.3 Global Corn Market Situation - **2025/26 Global Corn Yield Estimated to Increase Year - on - Year**: The global corn yield in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high of 1.286 billion tons, an increase of 55.49 million tons compared with the previous year. The United States is the core driving force for the increase, with an estimated yield of 425.525 million tons, an increase of 47.257 million tons year - on - year [52]. - **Increasing Disagreements on 2026/27 Global Corn Yield**: In the 2026/27 season, the global corn planting area is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend. The influence of weather factors on yield is expected to be more prominent [57][58]. - **Steady and Slight Increase in Global Corn Demand**: The global corn consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 1.284 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.74%. Feed consumption is the main support, and industrial consumption also shows a slow - growth expectation [62]. - **CBOT Corn Price Expected to Bottom Out and Rebound**: In 2026, the supply side of the global corn market is expected to be stable, and the demand side shows structural highlights. The price of CBOT corn is expected to show a trend of rising in the first half of the year and oscillating at a high level in the second half of the year [66][67]. 3.4 Domestic Corn Market Situation - **Supply Market Analysis** - **Increasing Yield Pattern Set, Quality Differentiation and Purchase - Sales Rhythm Become Focus**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn yield is expected to increase, but there is significant regional quality differentiation in North China. The selling rhythm of farmers and traders will affect the price rhythm in different periods [71][72]. - **Limited Change in 2026/27 Planting Area, Weather Still the Dominant Factor for Yield**: The corn planting area in 2026 is expected to be relatively stable, and the yield is initially estimated to be stable with a slight increase. However, weather is still the key variable affecting the final yield [78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Expected to Remain at a Low Level**: From January to October 2025, China's corn import volume was only 129.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.1%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to recover slightly but still remain at a low level [81][82]. - **Demand Market Analysis** - **Limited Increment in Feed Consumption, Substitution as the Anchor**: In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be stable with limited increment. The breeding industry is expected to continue to reduce capacity slowly, and substitution by other grains will cause periodic disturbances [85][86]. - **2025/26 Industrial Consumption Expected to be Stable**: The domestic corn industrial consumption market is expected to maintain a "stable with a slight increase" pattern in the 2025/26 season. However, the starch and alcohol industries are affected by cost pressure and have weak support for corn consumption [108][109]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand is expected to remain relatively balanced. The supply side shows a stable year - on - year trend, and the demand side also maintains a stable expectation [116]. 3.5 Corn Starch Market Fundamentals - **Supply Market Analysis - Yield Expected to Decrease Slightly Year - on - Year under the Expectation of Profit Convergence**: In 2025, the corn starch industry was under the triple pressure of weak demand, high cost, and low profit, and the yield decreased significantly. In 2026, the industry is still expected to face the contradiction of rising cost and weak demand, and the yield is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [118]. - **Demand Market Analysis - Insufficient Incremental Drivers**: In 2026, the terminal consumption of corn starch is expected to continue the stable and weak trend, lacking growth highlights. The consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [121]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of corn starch in China are expected to decline. The industry is expected to show a relatively balanced state [124]. 3.6 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The spread between corn starch and corn is recommended to be treated with an interval - trading idea. Currently, the spreads in May and September are in the middle - low range, and there is limited downward space. In the short term, the spread is expected to continue to shrink, and there is a repair expectation in the medium term [129]. - **Corn Cross - Period Arbitrage**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the May - March contract spread and going short on the May - September contract spread of corn. The current fundamentals support the May contract the most [131]. 3.7 Seasonal Analysis - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [133]. - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Starch Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn starch futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in January, February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [138]. 3.8 Corn and Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - **Corn Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - side focuses on the release rhythm of grain sources, yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand - side focuses on the breeding and deep - processing markets. The overall consumption of corn is expected to be weak, but periodic disturbances are still the focus. The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [142][143][145]. - **Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to be relatively balanced, and the profit game is still the main theme. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [149]. 3.9 Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategy - **Corn Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn 2605 contract fluctuates in the range of 2200 - 2400, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [155]. - **Corn Starch Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn starch 2603 contract fluctuates in the range of 2460 - 2670, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [162]. 3.10 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the stock price changes of several companies related to the corn industry in 2025, such as Muyuan Co., Ltd. with a rise of 29.77%, New Hope with a rise of 3.42%, and Zhengbang Technology with a fall of 13.82% [163].
玉米现货偏强,盘面偏弱震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 09:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US corn yield per unit in December is stable, and the export volume is increased. However, the production is at a high level. In the short term, the US corn is in a narrow and strong - side volatile trend, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The in - quota tariff for importing US corn to China is 11%, and that for sorghum is 12%. Importing US corn has started to have profits, and the import profit from Brazil is relatively high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that there will still be a wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - to - late December. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream has replenished stocks due to rigid demand, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, and the spot price of corn has continued to fall. The price difference between North China wheat and corn is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short term, and the purchase price will be lowered. There is still room for the 03 corn price to fall, but the decline of 07 corn is limited [4]. - **Starch**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level. The spot price of corn has started to decline, while the spot price of starch is strong, and the profit of North China starch factories has increased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 01 corn starch will follow the weak and volatile trend of corn [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the export volume is increased. In the short term, the support for the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is strong. Currently, the supply of corn in Northeast China is increasing, and the supply in North China is also rising. There is still room for the spot price of corn to decline. In the short term, corn prices will continue to fall. It is expected that the prices of 03 and 05 corn will still decline, but the decline of 07 corn is limited. Currently, operations can be carried out according to seasonal patterns, and the spot price is expected to continue to decline in late December. Specific strategies include: trying to buy US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel; short - selling 03 corn at a high price above 2240; long - buying 07 corn at a long - term price below 2260; conducting reverse arbitrage on 3 - 7 corn at a high price; and implementing a cumulative put strategy on 03 corn at a high price [4][5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International - **US Corn Supply and Demand and Price Trends**: In December, the yield per unit of US corn remained flat, and the export volume was increased. The US corn showed a strong - side volatile trend, and the 12 - contract had support at 430 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff for US corn is 11%, and that for US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn is around 2274 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of December 11, the price at the Guangdong port was 2370 yuan per ton, and the cost of corn imported from Brazil in January was 2177 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 283 yuan per ton [8][9]. - **US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production**: As of November 10, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 43,000 lots, showing an increase. The ethanol production in the United States has decreased. The US corn 03 is in a bottom - side volatile trend, and it has strong support at 430 cents per bushel [16]. Domestic - **Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises**: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than that of the same period last year. As of December 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 29.53 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From December 4 to December 10, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises across the country consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 294 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.8% [20][21]. - **Port Inventory**: The corn inventory at northern ports has increased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has decreased. As of December 5, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons. The shipping volume at the four ports on that Thursday was 808,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 273,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 508,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain was 1.022 million tons, a decrease of 195,000 tons [24]. - **Grain - selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress of domestic corn is faster than that of last year. As of December 11, the overall grain - selling progress was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 7% [27][28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From December 4 to December 10, the national corn processing volume was 635,700 tons, and the starch production was 331,100 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The spot price of North China corn has decreased, while the spot price of starch has increased, and the by - product price has remained stable. The enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 29 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan from the previous week, and the profit in Shandong was 19 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from the previous week. Downstream提货 has increased, the operating rate has risen, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of December 10, the corn starch inventory was 1.049 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.47%, a monthly decrease of 1.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [32]. - **Substitute Products**: The wheat price is basically stable. The arrival price in North China is basically 2,500 yuan per ton, and the price is strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The prices of North China and Northeast corn are weak, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract has decreased [37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From December 4 to December 11, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 120 yuan per head, an increase of 12 yuan per head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 252 yuan per head, a decrease of 9 yuan per head from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.07 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.1 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.51 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.48 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.45 yuan per catty last week [42][48]. - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch**: The operating rate of starch sugar: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 47.17%, an increase of 2.99% from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 50.37%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper was 67.81%, an increase of 0.39% from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 70.47%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [51]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitute Products**: The price trends of corn and substitute products are presented in various price charts, including the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port, the ex - factory price of starch in Weifang, the price difference between wheat and corn, and the price difference between sorghum and corn [53][54][57][58][59]. - **Basis and Spread of Corn and Corn Starch**: The report also provides data on the basis and spread of corn and corn starch, such as the 01 basis of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, etc. [61].
玉米类市场周报:政策性拍卖发酵,玉米期价高位回落-20251212
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 09:13
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: This week, corn futures prices dropped from their high levels. The international corn market is under pressure due to the harvest and export season in the US and relatively loose supply - demand globally. However, the reduction of the US corn's ending - stock forecast by USDA supports the price. In the domestic market, the increased purchase by reserve warehouses in the Northeast provides support, but high prices limit procurement and rumors lead to increased supply, causing price adjustments. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, prices are fluctuating slightly. The short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Corn Starch**: Dalian corn starch futures closed lower in a volatile manner. With sufficient raw material supply and increasing industry operating rates, supply pressure grows. But high demand from downstream industries and reduced inventory support the market. Affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices also fell, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from last week. The international market has supply pressure, while the domestic Northeast's reserve purchase supports the price. High prices limit procurement, and rumors increase supply, leading to a high - level price adjustment [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. Abundant raw materials and increased operating rates pressure supply, but strong downstream demand and reduced inventory are positive factors [8]. 2. Futures and Cash Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: This week, the 3 - month contracts of both corn and corn starch futures dropped from high levels. The total position of the corn 3 - month contract was 937,207 lots, an increase of 127,367 lots from last week, and that of the corn starch 3 - month contract was 109,010 lots, an increase of 12,178 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 in corn futures decreased from - 188,896 last week to - 111,571 this week, and that of corn starch futures decreased from - 44,791 to - 37,848 [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,355 lots, and those of corn starch were 2,500 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 179 yuan/ton [31][35]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 56 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period [41]. - **Futures Spread between Corn and Starch**: The spread between the 3 - month starch and corn contracts was 288 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from last week [50]. - **Substitute Spread**: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2515.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 159.45 yuan/ton. In the 50th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch narrowed, with an average spread of 725 yuan/ton, a reduction of 36 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply**: As of December 5, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 6.6 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 24.9 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 153.1 tons, an increase of 16.2 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 80.8 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons. The total sales progress of domestic corn was 40% as of December 11, an increase of 4% from last week. In October 2025, China's corn imports were 35.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06%. As of December 11, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from last week [45][57][61][65]. - **Corn - Demand**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of December 5, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 167.69 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan/head. As of December 11, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 54 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 491 yuan/ton, - 726 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 286 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [69][73][78]. - **Corn Starch - Supply**: As of December 10, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 294 tons, an increase of 6.75%. From December 4 to 10, the national corn processing volume was 63.57 tons, an increase of 0.89 tons from last week, and the corn starch output was 33.11 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons. The operating rate was 62.84%, an increase of 1.18%. The starch inventory was 104.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week [82][86]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 12, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the corn main 2603 contract was 10.56%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week's 12.79%, and it was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [89].
国内新粮上量有所增加 玉米期货反弹空间或有限
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-12 07:00
Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant increase in corn inventory and production forecasts in Brazil, while the U.S. shows strong export sales for the 2025/2026 corn season [1][3]. Group 1: Corn Inventory and Production - As of December 10, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises in 12 regions of China is 2.94 million tons, reflecting a 6.75% increase [1]. - Brazil's total corn planting area for 2025 is projected to be 22.250454 million hectares, unchanged from last month's estimate, with a 4.2% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - Brazil's total corn production is forecasted at 141.617742 million tons, remaining stable from last month's estimate, but showing a 23.5% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: U.S. Corn Export Sales - For the week ending November 13, U.S. net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 2.38 million tons, up from 0.98 million tons the previous week [1]. - U.S. corn shipments for the 2025/2026 marketing year totaled 2.477 million tons, compared to 1.529 million tons the prior week [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Zhengxin Futures, the U.S. corn market is expected to remain strong due to increased exports and rising domestic demand, although the overall corn production is expected to keep prices low in the medium to long term [3]. - Guodu Futures notes that some new grain quality in North China has been affected, leading to increased purchases of Northeast grain, which has resulted in a rebound in corn prices, though the overall production surplus limits the extent of this rebound [3].
2300!玉米涨得停不下来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 12:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in corn futures prices is supported by strong demand and logistical challenges, indicating that the upward trend may continue for the time being [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - Corn futures reached a high of 2302, marking a 1.28% increase during the night session, and closed at 2295 during the day, reflecting a 0.97% rise compared to the previous settlement price [2]. - The significant price increase was influenced by a 100 yuan/ton rise in prices at the Harbin branch of the China Grain Reserves Corporation, which boosted market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Strong demand is evident, particularly at ports, driven by a backlog of contracts for November and December, coupled with low inventory levels [5]. - The demand for high-quality corn from Northeast China has increased due to quality differentiation in corn from North China caused by weather issues [6]. - Despite low overall downstream consumption, the rising corn prices have altered market sentiment, prompting companies to consider stockpiling [7][9]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - Although Northeast China has a good corn harvest, the distribution is overly concentrated, leading to tight logistics and transportation challenges [10]. - The supply situation in North China is also tight, necessitating reliance on Northeast corn for additional supply [11]. - From November onwards, transportation capacity in Northeast China has become noticeably strained, with reports of reduced discounts on rail segments and even temporary halts in unloading [12][13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market is not characterized as a bull market, suggesting that while prices may rise, the increases will be gradual and not without challenges [15]. - The main risk to corn prices is the potential for increased selling pressure as prices rise, which could lead to more corn being sold if the selling sentiment shifts [16].
玉米类市场周报:现货市场小幅回暖,玉米期价震荡收高-20251121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 10:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The main 2601 contract closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week. With sufficient raw material supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,195 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA report shows that the US corn production is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast is rising due to reduced supply, but the logistics is poor. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,512 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate is rising, but the demand is good and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 1 - month contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 949,440 lots, an increase of 2,138 lots from last week. The 1 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 236,928 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots from last week [16]. 3.2.2. Top Twenty Net Position Changes - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 108,473 this week, compared with - 121,652 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 43,094 this week, compared with - 53,346 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [22]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 68,764 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 11,710 lots [28]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 83 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight recovery this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 88 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was + 5 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 317 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with last week [52]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of November 20, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,503.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,278.82 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.85 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - **Inventory at Ports**: As of November 14, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 27.3 tons, a decrease of 18.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 35.5 tons, a decrease of 5.70 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 117 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 40 tons, a decrease of 18.20 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Selling Progress**: As of November 20, the total selling progress of domestic corn was 27%, an increase of 3% from last week and 2% year - on - year [59]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's corn import volume was 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons (81.93%) year - on - year, and an increase of 20,404.55 tons month - on - month [63]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.23 days, an increase of 0.62 days from last week, a 2.42% week - on - week increase, and a 9.58% year - on - year decrease [67]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) year - on - year and 90,000 heads (0.2%) quarter - on - quarter [71]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 114.81 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 205.64 yuan/head [75]. - **Processing Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 28 yuan/ton. As of November 21, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 434 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 549 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 299 yuan/ton [80]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 272.7 tons, a decrease of 0.29% [84]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From November 13 to 19, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 61.24 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 1.34 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 60.89%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week. As of November 19, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 110.9 tons, a decrease of 2.40 tons from last week, a 2.12% weekly decrease, a 1.68% monthly decrease, and a 25.59% year - on - year increase [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 8.42%, up 0.46% from last week's 7.96%. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].
玉米仍是美国“强项”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-21 09:20
Group 1 - The corn market remains bullish due to record export demand, despite a price pullback this week [1] - December corn futures rose by 0.5 cents to $4.3025, following a drop of 7 cents to $4.2975, marking the lowest closing price since November 10 [3] - The USDA reported that as of last Sunday, corn harvest progress reached 91%, lower than 98% at the same time last year and slightly below the five-year average of 94% [3] Group 2 - The USDA raised the average corn yield to an unexpected 186 bushels per acre, with total production estimated at 16.752 billion bushels, a 12% increase from 2024 [4] - August corn export volume reached 6.397 million tons (251.8 million bushels), a record for the period, and increased by 25% compared to August 2024 [4] - The EIA reported a 1.5% week-over-week increase in ethanol production, with an average daily output of 1.091 million barrels [5]
Corn Falls Back on Wednesday
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-19 22:52
Market Overview - Corn futures experienced a decline, with contracts down 7 to 8 cents across most months, and the national average Cash Corn price decreased by 6 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/4 [1] - External market pressures included a $1.15 drop in crude oil prices and a $0.606 increase in the dollar index [1] Ethanol and Corn Exports - EIA data indicated a rebound in ethanol production by 16,000 barrels per day to 1.091 million bpd for the week ending November 14, with ethanol stocks rising by 88,000 barrels to 22.307 million barrels [2] - August corn exports reached a record 6.397 MMT (251.8 million bushels), marking a 25.42% increase from the previous year and a 2.76% rise from July [3] - Distillers exports increased by 7.47% year-over-year to 1.167 MMT, while ethanol exports also set a record for August at 188.77 million gallons, up 23.76% from last year and 14.84% from July [3] Import and Export Activity - Analysts anticipate corn export sales for the week of October 2 to be between 1.4 to 2.5 MMT [4] - A South Korean importer secured 130,000-135,000 MT of corn in a recent tender, with the origin yet to be disclosed [4] - Brazil's ANEC projected November corn exports at 6.36 MMT, reflecting a 0.32 MMT increase from prior estimates [4] Speculative Positions - CFTC data revealed that speculators increased their net short position in corn futures and options by 40,635 contracts, bringing the total net short to 135,310 contracts as of September 30 [5] - Closing prices for December 25 Corn were $4.29 3/4 (down 7 cents), Nearby Cash at $3.91 1/4 (down 6 3/4 cents), March 26 Corn at $4.41 1/2 (down 8 cents), and May 26 Corn at $4.49 (down 7 1/2 cents) [5]
玉米现货上涨,盘面偏强震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 11:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may continue to be revised downwards. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. The selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of corn in North China is relatively low, causing the corn spot price to rise. In the short term, corn will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the rebound space of contracts 01 and 05 is limited. The spread between contracts 01 and 05 has narrowed. According to the seasonal pattern, the rebound space of the spot price in November is limited. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it remains at a historically high level for the same period. As the spot price of corn is relatively strong, the spot price of starch is also rising. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to fall. It is expected that the December contract of corn starch will fluctuate at a high level following corn. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to have its yield per unit revised down, but the yield is high. It oscillates at around 430 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 420 cents per bushel for the December contract. Although the tariff for importing US corn into China has been adjusted, there is still no profit in importing US corn. The focus of the market is on farmers' selling rhythm, and there may still be selling pressure on Northeast corn in November. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, and downstream demand for replenishment is driving up the price. The supply of North China corn has decreased, and the corn spot price is oscillating strongly. It is expected that the purchase price at the northern ports will be supported at around 2120 yuan per ton. Contract 01 of corn futures will oscillate at a high level, with limited short - term rebound space. [4] - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and inventory has decreased but remains high. The spot price of starch is rising with the relatively strong corn price. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch may fall. It is expected that contract 01 of corn starch will follow corn and oscillate at a high level. [4] - **Trading Strategies** - For single - sided trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. For contract 05 of corn, consider long - term buying below 2220 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, consider buying contract 01 of corn and selling contract 01 of starch, and short the spread when the price is high. [5] - For options, consider a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn at low prices. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The October report has not been released yet. It is expected that the yield per unit of US corn will continue to be revised down, but the US corn is in a bumper harvest. The price is oscillating at the bottom, and the December contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Although China has adjusted tariffs on US agricultural products, there is still no profit in importing US corn. As of November 13, the import profit of Brazilian corn at Guangdong Port is 164 yuan per ton. As of November 6, the weekly export inspection volume of US corn is 1.42 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 13.73 million tons. The export volume to China this week is 0 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 0 tons. In September, the import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 930,000 tons, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production has increased. [8][10][11][12][17] - **Domestic Market - Corn Consumption and Inventory** - Feed enterprises: As of November 12, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 25.61 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. [21] - Deep - processing enterprises: From November 7 to November 12, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3865 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 46,000 tons. As of November 12, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 273,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week. [22] - Port Inventory: As of November 7, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports is 582,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 134,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 454,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons; the foreign - trade inventory is 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,000 tons; the imported sorghum is 417,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the imported barley is 706,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons; the total grain inventory is 1.989 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons. [25] - Corn Selling Progress: The selling progress of corn in the main producing areas across the country is faster than last year. The overall national selling progress (including all 13 provinces) is 24%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 21%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. [26] - **Starch Situation**: From November 7 to November 13, the national corn processing volume is 631,900 tons, and the starch production is 328,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons. The operating rate is 63.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The spot price of corn in North China has risen, driving up the spot price of starch. The by - product price is stable, and the enterprise profit is stable. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 33 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan, and the profit in Shandong is 36 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan. Downstream提货 volume has increased, the operating rate has risen, and starch inventory has decreased. As of November 12, the corn starch inventory is 1.133 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59%. It is expected that the starch inventory will increase next week. [30] - **Substitute - Wheat**: The factory - delivered price of wheat in North China is basically 2,490 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The price of corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened, and the price difference between North China corn and contract 01 of corn has increased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From November 7 to November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 64 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 121 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.31 yuan per chicken last week. The breeding cost of laying hens is 3.44 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.43 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.52 yuan per catty last week. [41][47] - **Deep - processing of Corn Starch - Downstream Consumption**: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 40.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the operating rate of maltose syrup is 43.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The operating rate of corrugated paper is 66.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%; the operating rate of boxboard paper is 70.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64%. [50] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific additional data tracking content is provided other than what has been summarized above.