Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - side situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - **Price performance**: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - **Risk strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - **Negative information**: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - **Fund flow**: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - **Trading profit**: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - **Disk profit**: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China's corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - **Global corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - **Foreign corn**: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The US corn market is expected to remain in a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic corn spot has short - term downward space, and the 01 corn futures will fluctuate weakly. The 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. It is recommended to try to go long on 05 and 01 corn lightly and to shrink the spread between 01 corn and starch when the spread is high [4][7][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Data Futures Disk - Corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509) all showed price declines on October 30, 2025. For example, C2601 closed at 2111, down 5 (-0.24%), and CS2601 closed at 2419, down 8 (-0.33%). The trading volume and open interest of different contracts had varying degrees of increase or decrease. For instance, the trading volume of C2601 increased by 24.51%, and the open interest of CS2601 decreased by 1.70% [2] Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions had different trends. The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc. were reported, with some stable and some falling. The basis of corn in different regions also varied, such as -277 in Qinggang. Starch spot prices in different enterprises were stable, and the basis was relatively high, like 120 in Longfeng. The spreads between different contracts of corn and starch also had changes, for example, the spread of C01 - C05 was -102, up 3 [2] Market Judgment Corn - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has declined, and the FOB price at northern ports in China is stable. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area has continued to decline, while the supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has begun to stabilize and rebound. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the corn spot still has short - term downward space. The market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong has stabilized. The starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the enterprise profit is good. However, due to the possible decline of corn price at the end of October in North China, the starch spot price is also expected to decline, and the 01 starch futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8] Trading Strategy - The US corn is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly. North China corn is stabilizing and rebounding, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long on 05 and 01 corn lightly and to shrink the spread between 01 corn and starch when the spread is high [9][10] Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [12] Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn and corn starch spot prices, basis, spreads, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of different contracts and regions over time [14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the new - season supply of global corn is loose. The production of US corn reaches a new high, and it will be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Brazilian corn has a good harvest, and its exports are higher than the same period last year [10][11][20]. - Domestically, the production of new - season corn increases, and the planting cost decreases. However, there is significant selling pressure in the Northeast. Feed demand is growing, and corn has a high cost - performance ratio. Deep - processing of corn starts to make profits, and the operating rate rebounds. The inventories of north - south ports are starting to rise, but the corn inventory in the north port is still low. Corn and starch will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future [27][32][55][73][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the USDA report was not released. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered, but its production reached a new high, and it oscillated narrowly around 420 cents per bushel. In October, corn in Northeast and North China was concentrated on the market, and the spot price of corn dropped significantly. The purchase price at the north port fell to 2,070 yuan per ton and then rebounded to 2,120 yuan per ton in late October. The downstream demand for corn starch was still weak, and the starch inventory was at a historical high. However, due to the large drop in corn prices, the profit of starch enterprises was good, and the operating rate increased. The 01 - contract corn oscillated downward, and the price difference between corn and starch widened [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Internationally, the yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn had strong support at 400 cents per bushel. However, its production was at a high level, and the expected rebound height was limited. It would be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Domestically, a large amount of corn in Jilin would be on the market in November, and there was still room for the spot price of corn to fall. Considering the low inventories of traders and downstream enterprises and the possible reluctance of farmers to sell, the purchase price at the north port might have support at 2,050 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract corn might have strong support around 2,090 yuan. For starch, due to the stable price of by - products, deep - processing would still make profits after a large amount of new - season corn was on the market. However, considering the weak downstream demand and high inventory, the profit of starch enterprises was expected to shrink, and the 01 - contract starch was expected to oscillate narrowly. The price difference between corn and starch on the futures market might shrink [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and for the 05 - contract, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Narrow the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell corn put options (c2601 - P - 2100) when the futures price falls to a low point [6]. 3.2 Second Part: International Corn Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Global Corn New - Season Supply is Loose - The USDA monthly data was not released in October, so the September report was used as a benchmark. The September USDA report showed a loose supply. In September 2025, the global corn production decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and consumption increased. The expected global corn production in the 25/26 season was 1.287 billion tons, slightly lower than the previous month's 1.288 billion tons but higher than the previous year's 1.223 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons. The total domestic consumption was 1.281 billion tons, higher than the previous year's 1.249 billion tons. The expected ending inventory was 281 million tons, lower than the previous year's 284 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 21.97% [10]. 3.2.2 US Corn Production Reaches a New High, Domestic Ethanol Production Will Still Increase, and US Corn Oscillates at the Bottom - In the September report, the new - season area of US corn was revised up month - on - month, and the yield per unit was lowered. The area of US corn in the 25/26 season was about 98.7 million acres, higher than 97.3 million acres in August and much higher than 90.6 million acres last year. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn would oscillate at the bottom. The current ethanol production of US corn was at a high level, and the fuel ethanol inventory continued to decline. The net short position of US corn was also decreasing. As of September 23, the net short position of US corn was - 51,000 lots, and the 12 - contract of US corn was expected to have strong support around 400 cents per bushel [11][13]. 3.2.3 Brazilian Corn Has a Good Harvest, and Exports are Higher than the Same Period Last Year - The exports of Brazil's second - crop corn started to be higher than last year. In September, the exports were 6.98 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of Brazil were 23.95 million tons, higher than 23.62 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 24, the import cost in December was 2,152 yuan per ton, and the import profit was 158 yuan per ton [20][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 New - Season Production Increases and Planting Cost Decreases, with Significant Selling Pressure in the Northeast - Currently, there is significant selling pressure on corn in the Northeast, and the spot price of corn oscillates at the bottom. In October, the main selling pressure came from the concentrated listing of farm - produced corn in Heilongjiang, corn in Liaoning, and corn in North China. The purchase price at the north port fell to a low of 2,070 yuan per ton. From mid - October to the end of October, due to the fact that a large amount of corn in Jilin was not on the market, the spot price of corn rebounded. However, from the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin and North China, the spot price of corn is expected to fall again, and the purchase price may reach a low of around 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. Since the inventories of traders, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low, there is an intention to build inventories. It is expected that the decline of corn in Jilin is limited, and the purchase price at the north port has support at 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. In the 25/26 season, the land rent decreased, and the yield per unit increased, resulting in a significant increase in the national production. It is expected that the national corn production will increase by 11 - 12 million tons [26][27]. 3.3.2 Feed Demand Increases, and Corn Has a High Cost - Performance Ratio - Feed demand continues to grow. According to data from the Feed Industry Association, the feed production in September was 30.36 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the feed production in September was 31.29 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 250.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The profit of pig farming continues to decline, but the pig inventory is higher than the same period last year. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was - 149 yuan, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 279 yuan. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms in September was 36.85 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The profit of white - feather broilers is still in the red, but the inventory of laying hens is still high. It is expected that feed demand will continue to increase in November [32]. 3.3.3 Deep - Processing of Corn Starts to Make Profits, and the Operating Rate Rebounds - In October 2025, the spot price of corn dropped significantly, and the price of by - products was relatively stable. Starch enterprises have started to make profits, and the operating rate has increased. However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the starch inventory is still at a historical high. As of October 22, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.622 million tons, higher than 2.12 million tons in the same period last month but lower than 3.03 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of starch enterprises continued to rebound, reaching 55.62% as of October 22. The starch inventory is higher than last year, and the profit of starch enterprises has increased. It is expected that in November, with the continuous loose supply of new - season corn, the spot price of corn still has room to fall, and the profit of the starch industry will remain high. The downstream demand for starch is still weak, and the increase in the import volume of cassava starch will suppress the demand for corn starch [55][56]. 3.3.4 North - South Port Inventories Start to Rise, and the Corn Inventory in the North Port is Low - In October, the corn inventory in the north port started to rise, and the grain inventory in the south port also increased, but the corn inventory in the north port was still at a low level. As of October 17, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 959,000 tons, a decrease of 513,000 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected that in November, due to the significant increase in the shipping volume, the inventory accumulation in the north port may be relatively slow. The domestic and foreign trade inventories of Guangdong Port and the inventories of imported sorghum and barley have increased, and the grain inventory is higher than the same period last year. With the successive listing of new - season corn, the inventories of north - south ports will continue to accumulate in November [73]. 3.3.5 Trading Logic of Corn and Starch - In October 2025, with the concentrated listing of corn, the spot price of corn dropped significantly. From the end of October to early November, there will still be selling pressure on corn, and the spot price is expected to fall, but there may be a rebound in mid - November. For starch, it is expected that starch enterprises will still make profits in November, but the profit margin will be lower than last year. The 01 - contract corn is likely to fluctuate between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 2,200 - 2,250 yuan. The price difference between corn and starch may fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Corn - In October, Sino - US relations eased. The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and its price is far lower than the planting cost. It is expected that the 12 - contract of US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel, but considering that its production is still at a new high, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the 25/26 season. For domestic corn, due to the influence of rainfall in North China, the mildew rate of corn is high, and the selling pressure in North China is still significant in early November. From the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin, the spot price of corn will still fall, but it is expected that the purchase price of 2,050 yuan per ton has strong support. In mid - November, the selling pressure in Jilin will ease, and corn prices will rebound slightly. It is expected that the purchase price at the north port will fluctuate between 2,050 - 2,130 yuan in November, the 01 - contract futures will fluctuate between 2,080 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract corn will fluctuate between 2,190 - 2,260 yuan [84][85]. 3.4.2 Starch - Due to the significant drop in the spot price of corn and the stable price of by - products, the profit of starch enterprises is good. However, the demand for corn starch is still weak, the inventory is at a high level in the past few years, and the import volume of cassava is high. After a large amount of new - season corn is on the market, the operating rate of deep - processing will increase, and it is difficult to reduce the starch inventory. The supply of deep - processing corn in North China will be sufficient, the operating rate will remain high, and the corn price will be relatively low. The profit of starch enterprises will remain high in November. It is expected that the bottom price of starch in North China is around 2,650 yuan per ton, and in the Northeast, it is around 2,400 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract starch will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [85]. 3.4.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan. For the 05 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Operate the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell c2601 - P - 2100 options after the futures price falls [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn is expected to further reduce its yield per unit, but the production is at a high level. The US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel this week, with narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term. The support level of the December contract at 400 cents per bushel is relatively strong. The focus of the market is still on the selling rhythm of Jilin corn, and there is expected to be a selling pressure in early November. The selling pressure of Northeast corn has eased in the short - term, but the rebound space of corn spot is limited. The supply of North China corn has increased, and the corn spot has continued to reach the bottom. The market expects the low point of the corn purchase price at the northern port to be around 2,070 yuan per ton. The January corn futures are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the May contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has decreased, downstream demand is still weak, but提货 has increased, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is at a historically high level in the same period. The corn spot has declined, while the starch spot is relatively strong. The profits of North China starch factories are stable. The operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise in the later period. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the starch spot still has room to fall. It is expected that the January corn starch will follow the corn to fluctuate at the bottom. [4] - The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The support level of the December contract at 400 cents per bushel is relatively strong, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations. Currently, the selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of North China corn has started to increase. There is still a selling pressure for Jilin corn at the end of October, and the corn spot is expected to decline. Corn will still fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. It is expected that the January and May corn will still fluctuate at the bottom. The market expects the corn to be in short supply after the Spring Festival, and the spread between the January and May contracts is still large. Currently, operations should be carried out according to seasonal rules, and there is still room for the spot to fall after the end of October. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - For the US corn December contract, it can be considered to buy around 400 cents per bushel. The January corn will fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and the May corn can be bought below 2,200 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. [5] - For options, a cumulative purchase strategy for the May corn can be adopted. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - Although the expected yield per unit of US corn is decreasing, the supply is abundant, and the US corn is fluctuating at the bottom. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. The domestic import profit has shrunk. The price at the Guangdong port is 2,310 yuan per ton, and the arrival price of Brazilian corn in December is 2,137 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 172 yuan per ton. As of October 16, the export inspection of US corn this week was 1.32 million tons, with a cumulative export of 9.34 million tons. The export to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 0 tons, accounting for 0%. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to September, 930,000 tons were imported, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. [8][11] - As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was increasing, with 51,000 lots. The ethanol production in the US has increased. The December US corn contract is fluctuating at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel. [17] - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased, the inventory of feed enterprises has slightly decreased, and the consumption of deep - processing has increased. As of October 23, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 24.04 days, a decrease of 0.4 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.04%. From October 8 to October 15, 20 major 149 corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2633 million tons of corn, an increase of 40,300 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 23, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 269,500 tons, a 6.5% increase compared with the previous week, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week. [21][22] - The corn inventory at the northern port has increased, and the grain inventory at the southern port has decreased. As of October 17, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 959,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 107,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports that week was 804,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 118,000 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons compared with the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 362,000 tons, an increase of 168,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported sorghum was 544,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported barley was 938,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons compared with the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.962 million tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons. [25] - The operating rate of starch has decreased, the starch inventory has decreased, the starch spot has risen, and the profitability is stable. From October 16 to October 22, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, and the starch production was 287,700 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 55.62%, a decrease of 1.12% compared with the previous week. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 20 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous week, and the profit in Shandong was 75 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. As of October 22, the corn starch inventory was 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous week, a decrease of 4.9%, a monthly increase of 0.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 43.4%. The starch inventory is expected to increase next week. [28] - The wheat price is basically stable. The arrival price in North China is basically 2,470 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The price of North China corn has declined, while the price of Northeast corn is relatively strong. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the January contract has decreased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Market** - From October 17 to October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 149 yuan per head, an increase of 53 yuan per head compared with the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 280 yuan per head, an increase of 67 yuan per head compared with the previous week. [42] - From October 17 to October 23, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 1.34 yuan per bird, compared with - 1.55 yuan per bird last week. The breeding cost of laying hens this week was 3.41 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.5 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.56 yuan per catty last week. [48] - **Deep - processing Consumption Market** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 35.55%, a decrease of 1.69% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 39.62%, a decrease of 0.64% compared with the previous week. [51] - The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, an increase of 3.32% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of box - board paper was 68.83%, an increase of 2.22% compared with the previous week. [51] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No additional content other than what is covered in the core logic analysis is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, but the production remains high, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to adjust the yield downward, and the US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, resulting in a 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Despite this, the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with the spot price in the Northeast being strong and that in North China being weak. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, making corn more cost - effective. However, the short - term increase in wheat price is limited due to the rumored wheat auction. The domestic livestock farming demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the Northeast, keeping the corn spot price relatively stable in the short term. New - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has rebounded, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][6]. - In the starch market, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, leading to a weakening of the corn spot price in Shandong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong, and the enterprise is profitable due to the significant decline in corn price. The 01 starch futures contract is trading in a narrow range following the corn price. As the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, the corn starch spot price will also fall, but the futures contract has no profit, so it is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 decreased by 0.52%, 0.45%, and 0.57% respectively, with closing prices of 2,133, 2,239, and 2,274. Their trading volumes decreased by 7.76%, 29.23%, and increased by 40.60% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.47%, 2.99%, and 25.14% respectively. Corn starch futures contracts CS2601 and CS2605 decreased by 0.12% and 0.04% respectively, while CS2509 increased by 0.31%. Their trading volumes decreased by 36.56%, 6.42%, and 20.00% respectively, and open interests increased by 0.51%, 3.00%, and decreased by 1.09% respectively [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, while in Qinggang it is 1,970 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 304 to 66. The spot price of starch in different enterprises is between 2,650 - 2,920 yuan, and the basis ranges from 101 - 371 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of corn and starch contracts show different changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 123, down 1, and the CS09 - C09 spread between starch and corn is 338, up 21 [2]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by yield adjustments and tariff policies. In the domestic market, the price of northern port corn is stable, the Northeast corn spot price is strong, and the North China corn price is weak due to increased supply. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the livestock farming demand is stable. The corn spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, but there may be selling pressure at the end of October [4][6]. - **Starch**: The starch price is mainly influenced by the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has decreased this week, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise is profitable. The 01 starch futures contract is expected to trade in a narrow range following the corn price, and the spot price may decline as the North China corn price falls [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. The North China corn price is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the Northeast corn may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to exit the long positions of 01 or 05 corn futures and wait for a pull - back, and to adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating put and call options with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Graphs The report provides graphs showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts over different time periods, which help in analyzing the price trends and market relationships of corn and corn starch [13][15][19].

Group 1 - Since mid-October, corn futures prices in Dalian have reversed the downward trend observed since late September, beginning to rise slightly due to continuous rain in North China and increasing expectations of reduced corn production [1] - The prolonged rainy weather in North China's main corn-producing areas has led to record-breaking rainfall, resulting in increased moldy corn and a sharp decline in high-quality corn, thereby reducing effective supply [1] - The reliance of feed enterprises on Northeast corn is expected to increase, which will support the overall rise in domestic corn prices [1] Group 2 - Due to trade frictions, China's total corn imports have significantly decreased, with September imports of corn and corn flour at 60,000 tons, an 81.9% decrease year-on-year [2] - From January to September, cumulative corn imports were 930,000 tons, down 92.7% compared to the same period last year [2] - The demand for corn deep processing has declined due to reduced processing profits, with an estimated consumption of 5.1 million tons in September, a decrease of 48,000 tons year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Despite the decrease in deep processing demand, the steady growth in feed demand can partially offset this pressure, indicating a shift in the market supply-demand balance from a previous surplus to a tight equilibrium [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On Monday, the corn futures market generally closed higher, with far - month contracts leading the rise. The futures price started to recover from the September decline, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern. The corn 01 - 05 spread broke through - 100 yuan/ton, hitting a record low, indicating an optimistic market expectation for the 2026 corn price, which may limit the downside price space [2]. - In the spot market, although the current supply pressure still exists, after more than half a month of price decline, the new - season pressure has been released. With the purchase by some Sinograin depots, the spot price has stabilized, suggesting that the first - round price shock is over. The futures price may enter a bottom - grinding stage, and whether it will have a second bottom - probing depends on the corn market performance in the second half of October. The period from late October to early November may confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether the 2601 contract can hold the 2100 - yuan level [2]. - Corn starch mainly followed the corn price rebound, showing no independent strength and still weaker than the raw - material side [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose for the fifth consecutive trading day but with a small increase, mainly following the soybean price increase, and the high - yield pressure restricted the upward trend [2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - **Spot Market**: In the corn spot market, prices in some regions increased, such as in Jinzhou Port (up 30 yuan to 2180 yuan), Harbin (up 20 yuan to 2000 yuan). In the corn starch spot market, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 2750 yuan [4]. - **Futures Market**: Corn futures prices generally rose, with the corn 07 contract having the largest increase of 1.56% (up 35 yuan to 2272 yuan). Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the corn starch 03 contract rising by 1.16% (up 28 yuan to 2435 yuan) [4]. - **CBOT Market**: CBOT corn futures rose for five consecutive days, with the main - continuous contract price at 424, up 1 (0.24%). The main - continuous contracts of CBOT soybeans and wheat also increased [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some Sinograin depots are conducting supportive purchases and may increase the number of purchasing depots; the strong rebound of far - month futures contracts boosts market confidence; in September 2025, China's imports of corn and corn flour were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%; the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting to promote autumn - grain purchase and production - sales connection, emphasizing measures to maintain reasonable grain prices and protect farmers' interests [2][3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity adjustment, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn; the release of new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the spot price remains under pressure [3]. Other Information - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered corn warehouse receipts increased significantly by 12,615 to 49,324 [2]. - **Import Price and Profit**: The landed duty - paid price of US Gulf corn was 2119.1 yuan, up 6.07 (0.29%), with an import profit of 190.9 yuan; the landed duty - paid price of US West corn was 1965.97 yuan, up 0.95 (0.05%), with an import profit of 344.03 yuan [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn report lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains high. The U.S. corn price declined and may continue to fall in the future. China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. corn and a 22% tariff on U.S. sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The northern port corn prices have stabilized and rebounded, while the North China corn prices continue to decline. The domestic corn market is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, but there may be selling pressure in late October. The corn starch market is affected by the corn price and downstream inventory, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4][5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold long positions in 01 or 05 corn contracts and set stop - profit levels, and to wait and see for arbitrage [7]. - For options, a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations is recommended [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: On October 16, 2025, most corn futures contracts rose, with C2601 up 0.42%, C2605 up 0.76%, and C2509 up 0.66%. Some corn starch futures contracts also showed different trends, with CS2601 down 0.04%, CS2605 up 0.47%, and CS2509 up 0.89%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions showed different trends, with prices in some ports stabilizing and rebounding, and prices in North China falling. The basis of corn and corn starch also showed different values in different regions. The price differences between different periods of corn and corn starch and between different varieties also changed [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn report lowered the yield per unit, but the production is still high, and the price may continue to decline. China's import tariffs on U.S. corn and sorghum have changed. The northern port prices have stabilized and rebounded, and the North China prices continue to fall. The domestic corn market is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, but there may be selling pressure in late October [4][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn and starch prices in Shandong and Northeast China are weak. The inventory of corn starch has increased. The price of starch depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. Third Part: Corn Options - The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis and price differences of corn and corn starch futures contracts, which help to analyze the market trends of corn and corn starch [12][14][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market this year is expected to be relatively stable with limited price fluctuations. The lower bound of the price range is supported by planting costs and farmers' selling sentiment, while the upper bound is determined by downstream inventory - building sentiment, grain substitution scale, and policy - related grain auction rhythm and intensity. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak before November; in the medium term, the decline is limited; in the long term, the upward potential is also limited [8][9] - The corn industry chain has a higher acceptance and more proficient use of corn futures and derivatives for risk management [10][11][12] - For corn futures, the short - term logic is about new - grain supply pressure and cost support; the medium - term is about new - season drivers and wide - range trading; the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation. The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [13][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New and Old Corn Alternation: Focus on New - Season Corn - New - season corn in Heilongjiang is expected to have a stable and increasing yield this year, with an increase in single - yield and better quality compared to last year [4] - The corn planting cost in Heilongjiang has decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in land rent. The estimated new - grain planting cost at the port is about 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [5] - The opening price of new - season corn in Heilongjiang has shown a high - opening and low - going trend. The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises are in a passive inventory - building stage. Some farmers will start to hold back if the price is too low [7] 2. Current Situation and Outlook of the Corn Market - The corn market price has shown a trend of rising first and then falling this year, with a wide - range operation. The international supply is under pressure, but the impact of imports on the domestic market is small. Domestic new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the supply - demand gap depends on wheat substitution and policy - related grain sources. The demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries is weak [8] - The future corn market is expected to be relatively stable, with price fluctuations mainly affected by factors such as planting costs, farmers' selling sentiment, downstream inventory - building, grain substitution, and policy - related grain auctions [9] 3. Participation of Enterprises in Corn Futures and Derivatives - The corn industry chain has a high recognition of the price - discovery and hedging functions of corn futures. Enterprises use pricing models such as basis + fixed price, and the acceptance and use of basis pricing are relatively common [10][11] - All links in the corn industry chain have improved their acceptance and proficiency in using corn futures and derivatives for risk management, such as upstream farmers using hedging and insurance + futures, and downstream enterprises using selling hedging [11][12] 4. Corn Futures Views and Operation Suggestions - The short - term market logic is about new - grain supply pressure and the impact of bad weather in North China. The medium - term is about new - season drivers, and the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation [13] - The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach, pay attention to low - buying opportunities around 2100 and below for the 2601 contract, and hold long positions lightly. The first pressure level is 2140, and the second is 2150 [14]

Core Insights - The corn market in China is transitioning as the new harvest season begins, with key focus on production estimates, farmer selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building [2] Production and Yield - Corn yield in Heilongjiang is expected to increase year-on-year despite a slight decrease in planting area due to favorable weather conditions, with yields ranging from 12 to 13 tons per hectare, and some areas achieving up to 20 tons per hectare [3] - The quality of the new corn crop is reported to be better than last year, with specific gravity levels between 710-750 g/L [3] Cost of Production - The cost of corn production in Heilongjiang has decreased, primarily due to lower land rental costs, with average land rent around 12,000 RMB per hectare compared to 13,000 RMB last year [4] - Total planting costs are estimated between 17,000 to 21,000 RMB per hectare, with a calculated cost of approximately 1,500 RMB per ton for 30% moisture corn [4] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with new corn prices starting high but declining due to strong harvest expectations and limited inventory building by processing companies [6][5] - Farmers are willing to hold onto their corn if prices fall below 0.8 RMB per jin, indicating a focus on price support levels [6] Market Outlook - The corn market is expected to remain stable with limited price fluctuations, influenced by planting costs, farmer selling sentiment, and inventory building by downstream enterprises [8] - The price range for corn at Jinzhou Port has been between 2,000 to 2,400 RMB per ton, with a recent price of 2,310 RMB per ton [7] Derivatives Market Participation - Participation in the corn futures market has increased, with industry players recognizing the importance of futures for price discovery and risk management [9] - The use of basis pricing and hedging strategies is becoming more common among traders and processing companies, with basis pricing accounting for 30% to 50% of transactions [9][10] - The "Silver Futures" project has provided financial support to farmers, enhancing their ability to manage risks and secure sales post-harvest [10]