目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | 玉米现货偏强 盘面偏弱震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 GALAXY FUTURES 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 玉米：美玉米12月单产稳定，上调出口数量，但是产量处于高位，短期美玉米窄幅偏强震荡，预计美玉米03合约430美分/蒲支撑较强。中国进口美玉米配额 内关税11%，高粱为12%，美玉米进口开始有利润，巴西进口利润较高。目前农户惜售情绪减弱，玉米上量增多，但港口库存仍偏低，港口价格偏强，预计12月 中下旬东北玉米仍有一波卖压。短期东北玉米上量增加，但下游刚需补库，东北玉米小幅下跌，华北玉米上量增加玉米现货持续回落， ...

消息面 据调研显示，截至2025年12月10日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业玉米库存总量294万吨，增幅6.75%。 据外媒报道，巴西地理与统计研究所(IBEG)在一份报告中称，预计巴西2025年玉米总计种植面积为2225.0454万公顷，较上个月预估持平，较上年 种植面积增加4.2%，玉米总计产量预估为14161.7742万吨较上个月预估值持平，较上年产量增加23.5%。 华北部分新粮质量受损，贸易商及下游企业积极抢购东北粮源，港口库存下降，推动玉米期现反弹；但由于整体丰产，反弹空间预计有限。 机构观点 正信期货： 出口利多，美玉米震荡偏强。国内新粮上量有所增加，下游需求持续，港口库存回升，玉米现货开始松动，不过下游及港口库存仍有补库需求， 或支撑短期玉米盘面走强；中长期来看，新季玉米丰产，玉米仍将低位筑底。操作上，暂时观望。 国都期货： 美国农业部：截至11月13日当周，美国2025/2026年度玉米出口净销售为238万吨，前一周为98万吨；2026/2027年度玉米净销售0万吨，前一周为0 万吨；美国2025/2026年度玉米出口装船247.7万吨，前一周为152.9万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn is expected to further reduce its yield per unit, but the production is at a high level. The US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel this week, with narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term. The support level of the December contract at 400 cents per bushel is relatively strong. The focus of the market is still on the selling rhythm of Jilin corn, and there is expected to be a selling pressure in early November. The selling pressure of Northeast corn has eased in the short - term, but the rebound space of corn spot is limited. The supply of North China corn has increased, and the corn spot has continued to reach the bottom. The market expects the low point of the corn purchase price at the northern port to be around 2,070 yuan per ton. The January corn futures are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the May contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has decreased, downstream demand is still weak, but提货 has increased, and starch inventory has decreased, but it is at a historically high level in the same period. The corn spot has declined, while the starch spot is relatively strong. The profits of North China starch factories are stable. The operating rate of starch enterprises will still rise in the later period. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the starch spot still has room to fall. It is expected that the January corn starch will follow the corn to fluctuate at the bottom. [4] - The US corn has a bumper harvest, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The support level of the December contract at 400 cents per bushel is relatively strong, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations. Currently, the selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of North China corn has started to increase. There is still a selling pressure for Jilin corn at the end of October, and the corn spot is expected to decline. Corn will still fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. It is expected that the January and May corn will still fluctuate at the bottom. The market expects the corn to be in short supply after the Spring Festival, and the spread between the January and May contracts is still large. Currently, operations should be carried out according to seasonal rules, and there is still room for the spot to fall after the end of October. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - For the US corn December contract, it can be considered to buy around 400 cents per bushel. The January corn will fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and the May corn can be bought below 2,200 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. [5] - For options, a cumulative purchase strategy for the May corn can be adopted. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - Although the expected yield per unit of US corn is decreasing, the supply is abundant, and the US corn is fluctuating at the bottom. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively. The domestic import profit has shrunk. The price at the Guangdong port is 2,310 yuan per ton, and the arrival price of Brazilian corn in December is 2,137 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 172 yuan per ton. As of October 16, the export inspection of US corn this week was 1.32 million tons, with a cumulative export of 9.34 million tons. The export to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 0 tons, accounting for 0%. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to September, 930,000 tons were imported, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. [8][11] - As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was increasing, with 51,000 lots. The ethanol production in the US has increased. The December US corn contract is fluctuating at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel. [17] - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased, the inventory of feed enterprises has slightly decreased, and the consumption of deep - processing has increased. As of October 23, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 24.04 days, a decrease of 0.4 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.04%. From October 8 to October 15, 20 major 149 corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2633 million tons of corn, an increase of 40,300 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 23, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 269,500 tons, a 6.5% increase compared with the previous week, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week. [21][22] - The corn inventory at the northern port has increased, and the grain inventory at the southern port has decreased. As of October 17, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 959,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 107,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports that week was 804,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 118,000 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons compared with the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 362,000 tons, an increase of 168,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported sorghum was 544,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported barley was 938,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons compared with the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.962 million tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons. [25] - The operating rate of starch has decreased, the starch inventory has decreased, the starch spot has risen, and the profitability is stable. From October 16 to October 22, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, and the starch production was 287,700 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 55.62%, a decrease of 1.12% compared with the previous week. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 20 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan compared with the previous week, and the profit in Shandong was 75 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. As of October 22, the corn starch inventory was 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous week, a decrease of 4.9%, a monthly increase of 0.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 43.4%. The starch inventory is expected to increase next week. [28] - The wheat price is basically stable. The arrival price in North China is basically 2,470 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The price of North China corn has declined, while the price of Northeast corn is relatively strong. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the January contract has decreased. [36] - **Livestock and Poultry Market** - From October 17 to October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 149 yuan per head, an increase of 53 yuan per head compared with the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 280 yuan per head, an increase of 67 yuan per head compared with the previous week. [42] - From October 17 to October 23, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 1.34 yuan per bird, compared with - 1.55 yuan per bird last week. The breeding cost of laying hens this week was 3.41 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.5 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.56 yuan per catty last week. [48] - **Deep - processing Consumption Market** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 35.55%, a decrease of 1.69% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 39.62%, a decrease of 0.64% compared with the previous week. [51] - The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, an increase of 3.32% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of box - board paper was 68.83%, an increase of 2.22% compared with the previous week. [51] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No additional content other than what is covered in the core logic analysis is provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the domestic corn spot is expected to be relatively stable in the short term but may continue to decline due to upcoming auctions. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking, and the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [5][7][8] - The short - term trading strategy for corn is that the domestic 09 corn will have a narrow - range shock. For those with spot, they can short the 09 corn, and the spread between 09 corn and starch can be expanded when it is low. For options, spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [9][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2234, down 7 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 27,820 (-42.68%) and an open interest of 128,391 (5.06%) - C2505 closed at 2264, down 4 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 4,683 (-58.63%) and an open interest of 24,038 (8.57%) - C2509 closed at 2319, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 404,273 (-34.92%) and an open interest of 994,428 (0.81%) - CS2601 closed at 2620, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 2,950 (-32.17%) and an open interest of 8,301 (11.15%) - CS2505 closed at 2647, down 3 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 35 (-28.57%) and an open interest of 228 (-2.15%) - CS2509 closed at 2677, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 92,255 (-24.94%) and an open interest of 231,044 (4.01%) [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The current quotes in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, Zhuchengxingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2270, 2260, 2534, 2470, 2380, 2490, and 2460 respectively. The price changes are -10, 170, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is -49, -59, 215, 151, 61, 171, 141 respectively - Starch: The current quotes of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyumi, Zhuchengxingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2800, 2800, 2850, 3020, 2950, 2980, and 2960 respectively. The price changes are 0, -50, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is 153, 153, 203, 373, 303, 333, 313 respectively [3] 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - period: C01 - C05 spread is -30 (-3), C05 - C09 spread is -55 (-2), C09 - C01 spread is 85 (5) - Starch inter - period: CS01 - CS05 spread is -27 (-4), CS05 - CS09 spread is -30 (-4), CS09 - CS01 spread is 57 (8) - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 spread is 358 (3), CS01 - C01 spread is 386 (0), CS05 - C05 spread is 383 (1) [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the August import price from Brazil is 1943 yuan. The northern port flat - hatch price is weak, and the northeast corn spot price has declined. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned, and brown rice is about to be auctioned, so the corn spot price will continue to decline. It is expected that the North China corn will have strong support at around 2450 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang corn will have support at around 2220 yuan/ton [5][7] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2900 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 133.7 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch spot is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [8] 3.3 Corn Options - The option strategy is that spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include figures such as the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the 9 - 1 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 09 contract [15][17][21]

行业 玉米日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：锦州港玉米现货价格 元/吨 图2：玉米期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 数据来源：wind，建信期货研究中心 玉米行情： 期货方面，20 日，玉米主力 2507 合约小幅平低后回落震荡走低，尾盘收阴， 最高 2 ...

行业 玉米日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：wind，建信期货研究中心 玉米行情： 期货方面，8 日，玉米主力 2507 合约小幅低开后冲高回落震荡走低，尾盘收 阴，最高 2378 吨，最低 2361 吨，收盘报 2365 吨，较上一个交易日跌 0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The supply of corn at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, while the demand has a slight increase. The futures price is also likely to follow the spot price and fluctuate [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main corn contract 2505 opened slightly higher and then fluctuated lower, closing with a negative candlestick. The highest price was 2,282 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,262 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index increased by 46,462 lots to 2,218,656 [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the FOB price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [8]. 2. Industry News - On April 14, the corn prices at north - south ports were basically stable. In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of 720 was 2,160 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of 15% moisture corn was 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Similar prices were reported in Bayuquan Port. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price of first - class corn was 2,360 - 2,380 yuan/ton, also unchanged [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - **European Imports**: From July 1, 2024, to April 6, 2025, the EU imported 3.4 million tons of US corn, far higher than 114,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [15]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA's April report estimated the 2024/25 global corn production at 1.2151 billion tons, slightly higher than the March forecast; the export volume at 188.68 million tons, higher than the March forecast; and the ending inventory at 287.65 million tons, lower than the previous month's forecast and the previous year's level [15]. - **US Corn Sales**: As of the week ending April 3, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2024/25 season was 785,600 tons, a 33% decrease from the previous week and the four - week average [15]. - **Domestic Supply**: As of April 10, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 91%, 7% faster than the same period last year, and that in 7 major producing provinces was also 91%, 8% faster than last year [15].