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玉米淀粉日报-20250709
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 10:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the US corn is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the domestic corn spot is expected to be relatively stable in the short term but may continue to decline due to upcoming auctions. The starch price is mainly affected by corn price and downstream stocking, and the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [5][7][8] - The short - term trading strategy for corn is that the domestic 09 corn will have a narrow - range shock. For those with spot, they can short the 09 corn, and the spread between 09 corn and starch can be expanded when it is low. For options, spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [9][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2234, down 7 (-0.31%), with a trading volume of 27,820 (-42.68%) and an open interest of 128,391 (5.06%) - C2505 closed at 2264, down 4 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 4,683 (-58.63%) and an open interest of 24,038 (8.57%) - C2509 closed at 2319, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 404,273 (-34.92%) and an open interest of 994,428 (0.81%) - CS2601 closed at 2620, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 2,950 (-32.17%) and an open interest of 8,301 (11.15%) - CS2505 closed at 2647, down 3 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 35 (-28.57%) and an open interest of 228 (-2.15%) - CS2509 closed at 2677, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 92,255 (-24.94%) and an open interest of 231,044 (4.01%) [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The current quotes in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, Zhuchengxingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2270, 2260, 2534, 2470, 2380, 2490, and 2460 respectively. The price changes are -10, 170, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is -49, -59, 215, 151, 61, 171, 141 respectively - Starch: The current quotes of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyumi, Zhuchengxingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2800, 2800, 2850, 3020, 2950, 2980, and 2960 respectively. The price changes are 0, -50, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 respectively, and the basis is 153, 153, 203, 373, 303, 333, 313 respectively [3] 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - period: C01 - C05 spread is -30 (-3), C05 - C09 spread is -55 (-2), C09 - C01 spread is 85 (5) - Starch inter - period: CS01 - CS05 spread is -27 (-4), CS05 - CS09 spread is -30 (-4), CS09 - CS01 spread is 57 (8) - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 spread is 358 (3), CS01 - C01 spread is 386 (0), CS05 - C05 spread is 383 (1) [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a bottom - shock state, and weather factors may be used for speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the August import price from Brazil is 1943 yuan. The northern port flat - hatch price is weak, and the northeast corn spot price has declined. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned, and brown rice is about to be auctioned, so the corn spot price will continue to decline. It is expected that the North China corn will have strong support at around 2450 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang corn will have support at around 2220 yuan/ton [5][7] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2900 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 133.7 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 26.97%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the price difference between corn and starch spot is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term decline space of the 09 starch contract is limited [8] 3.3 Corn Options - The option strategy is that spot - holding enterprises can sell corn call options [13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include figures such as the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the 9 - 1 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 09 contract [15][17][21]
玉米日报-20250521
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:57
行业 玉米日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:锦州港玉米现货价格 元/吨 图2:玉米期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究中心 玉米行情: 期货方面,20 日,玉米主力 2507 合约小幅平低后回落震荡走低,尾盘收阴, 最高 2 ...
玉米日报-20250509
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 23:41
行业 玉米日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究中心 玉米行情: 期货方面,8 日,玉米主力 2507 合约小幅低开后冲高回落震荡走低,尾盘收 阴,最高 2378 吨,最低 2361 吨,收盘报 2365 吨,较上一个交易日跌 0 ...
玉米日报-20250415
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 01:33
Report Information - Report Title: Corn Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential. The supply of corn at the grassroots level is almost exhausted, while the demand has a slight increase. The futures price is also likely to follow the spot price and fluctuate [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main corn contract 2505 opened slightly higher and then fluctuated lower, closing with a negative candlestick. The highest price was 2,282 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,262 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. The total open interest of the index increased by 46,462 lots to 2,218,656 [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the FOB price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port was 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [8]. 2. Industry News - On April 14, the corn prices at north - south ports were basically stable. In Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and a bulk density of 720 was 2,160 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of 15% moisture corn was 2,210 - 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Similar prices were reported in Bayuquan Port. In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton, and the price of first - class corn was 2,360 - 2,380 yuan/ton, also unchanged [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - **European Imports**: From July 1, 2024, to April 6, 2025, the EU imported 3.4 million tons of US corn, far higher than 114,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [15]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA's April report estimated the 2024/25 global corn production at 1.2151 billion tons, slightly higher than the March forecast; the export volume at 188.68 million tons, higher than the March forecast; and the ending inventory at 287.65 million tons, lower than the previous month's forecast and the previous year's level [15]. - **US Corn Sales**: As of the week ending April 3, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2024/25 season was 785,600 tons, a 33% decrease from the previous week and the four - week average [15]. - **Domestic Supply**: As of April 10, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 91%, 7% faster than the same period last year, and that in 7 major producing provinces was also 91%, 8% faster than last year [15].