2025 年 12 月 12 日 【趋势强度】 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 生猪：降温提涨不及预期，仓单增量 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11430 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | -200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，10 日生猪主力 2603 合约小幅高开后震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最高 11480 元/吨，最低 11305 元/吨，收盘报 11310 ...

| 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11330 | | 50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11850 | | 200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12410 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11535 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11310 | | -140 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11840 | | -140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11280 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11650 | | 150 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12410 | | 250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11575 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11450 | | 65 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 25 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，9 日生猪主力 2603 合约平开后震荡 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 每日报告 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，8日生猪主力2603合约小幅高开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高11440 元/吨，最低 11105 元/吨，收盘报 11385 元/吨，较 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 每日报告 二、行业要闻 图1：养殖利润 元/头 图 ...

*近端交易逻辑 1.生猪存栏较高，猪企出栏压力较大 南华期货生猪产业周报 ——远月的梦想近月的重拳 戴鸿绪 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021819 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 本周生猪期价震荡磨底，当前猪价整体估值偏低，本周持仓量大幅下降，预计博弈逐步降低。近月博弈依旧 关注二育，今年过年时节较晚，二育尚存短补窗口。 1.1 核心矛盾 政策端扰动频出，生猪远月供给或受到影响。长周期战略性可以看多，但中短期依旧以基本面为主。部分省 市开启收储政策，虽然收储量有限，但体现了当下上层对物价调控的决心，可以说政策底已经显现，但市场 底可能还需要一轮生产周期去磨底。 能繁母猪存栏数（双口径） source： 南华研究,wind 万头 能繁殖母猪存栏数（钢联）(右轴) 能繁母猪存栏（农业农村部） 万头 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 475 500 525 550 575 3800 4000 4200 4400 猪粮比. source： 南华研究,同花顺 - 猪粮比：中国（周） 22/12 23/06 23/12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 04, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see state, so the price is mainly volatile. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the relatively concentrated secondary fattening and pressure on pigs in October, combined with continuous capacity release, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting continued pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is mainly weak and volatile, but since the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, the frequency of bottom - range volatility may increase [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 3rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down in the end. The highest was 11,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,235 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,152 lots to 371,564 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 3rd, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 11.28 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on pigs were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the slaughter at the beginning of the month has slowed down [9] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pens is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan, and the fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have also improved. The terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 176,700 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 2,800 heads compared with the previous week, and 17,800 heads compared with the previous month [9] 4.2 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head [19] - **Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg compared with the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [19]

资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心 gg 9 杨璐琳 | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/12/02 | | | 地区 | 2025/12/01 | 涨跌值\ | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.55 | 0.23 | 0 - 国 | 55 | 200 | | | 湖南 | 11. 43 | 0.5 | 100 | -165 | 470 | | | 湖北 | 41.3 | 0.24 012 | 0 | -195 | P 210 | | | 安徽 | 11.63 | 0. 22 | 200 | -65 | 190 | | | 江西 | 11. 34 | 0.5 | 2100 | -255 | 470 | | | 山西 | 11.14 | 0. 07 | -100 | -255 | 40 | | | 山东 | 11.61 | 0. 18 | 200 ...