1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pig prices declined, with the main contract 2511 dropping 1.66% weekly. The supply side saw an accelerated pace of weight - reducing sales in the first half of the month, increasing market supply. However, after price drops, farmers showed signs of resistance, and the sales pace might slow down. The demand side had sufficient pig supply, with improved demand in some areas and a mild increase in slaughterhouse operating rates. With the upcoming school openings and double - festival stocking, demand is expected to improve significantly. Overall, the previous increase in farmers' sales pressured spot prices, but the resistance sentiment may change the short - term sales pace, leading to stable price adjustments. Technically, the 2511 contract corrected, but the current weight - reducing sales will ease future supply pressure, and with expected demand improvement, the decline of futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices dropped, and the main contract 2511 fell 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the early weight - reducing sales increased supply, but price drops may slow down the sales pace. On the demand side, with sufficient supply and improving demand, the operating rate of slaughterhouses rose. Future demand is expected to improve due to school openings and double - festival stocking. Spot prices may adjust stably, and futures price decline is limited. It is advisable to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined, and the main contract 2511 dropped 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1311 lots, and there were 430 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 50 from last week [16]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 14.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 3.14% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.65 yuan from last week and 8.24% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: On August 7, the national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of August 6, the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, an increase of 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - **Pig Sales Volume and Average Weight**: In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the sales volume decreased 3.08% month - on - month but increased 18.60% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased 1.46% month - on - month but increased 57.67% year - on - year. The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 123.23 kg, a decrease of 0.09 kg from last week [48]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 157.05 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 22.91 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 28.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 16.28 yuan/head from the previous period [53]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.26 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.05 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.86 yuan/head [53]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Substitute Markets - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported 540000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 15, the price of white - striped chickens was 1.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 14, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week [61]. 3.3.4 Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3118.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2394.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of August 15, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 924.07, a decrease of 0.85% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [71]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2937700 tons, an increase of 175.6 tons from the previous month [76]. 3.3.5 CPI - As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [80]. 3.3.6 Downstream Market - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 33rd week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 27.79%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from last week and 4.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.02%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.52%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from last week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30060000 heads, a decrease of 6.53% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [88]. 3.4 Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [89].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. [9] - In the short - term, the near - month 2509 futures contract of pigs will mainly fluctuate weakly following the spot price. In the long - term, the supply of pigs will increase slightly, while the 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and their prices may fluctuate strongly. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened regional environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices. [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,140 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,230 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,487 lots to 175,404 lots. [8] - Spot: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.69 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] Pig Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 138,300 heads, 600 heads less than the previous day and 2,100 heads more than a week ago. [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase from the actual slaughter volume in July. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side was high, and the slaughter progress was fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remained high, and there were still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so the slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuated slightly. [9] Group 5: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. Group 6: Data Overview - As of August 7, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/head. [14] - In the week of August 7, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. [14] - As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 6.71%. [14] - The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase, with a significant increase in slaughter volume. [14] - As of the week of August 7, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Ih2509 contract for live pigs is in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline later. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to a persistently high inventory of breeding sows and improved production performance. Although demand is expected to seasonally increase in the second half of 2025, the impact of economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences may limit the boost. Therefore, the rebound space for pig prices is limited, and they will remain under pressure overall. However, due to policy disturbances, strong market sentiment, and the approaching peak season, short - term pig prices may be strong, but the upside space is limited under sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging to lock in sales prices, and food enterprises can purchase as needed and buy call options to control procurement costs while selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [3]. - The jd2509 contract for eggs is also in a phase of downward oscillation, with the price center expected to decline. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year - on - year, and supply pressure continues to weigh. Demand has seasonal changes within the year, but limited by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the expected fluctuation range is limited. Considering cost and profit, the price of eggs is expected to remain at a low level. The demand for the 09 contract is in the declining phase after the peak season, and with high supply, there is insufficient support. It is recommended to short on rallies. For industrial chain participants, breeding enterprises can sell futures for hedging when egg prices are under pressure, and food enterprises can control procurement costs by buying call options and selling out - of - the - money put options [3]. Summary by Sections Live Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the official normal level of 30 million, indicating persistent over - capacity. The supply in 2025 will be at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the farmers' slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [14]. - The average slaughter weight has slightly decreased but remains high. With the approaching of the autumn and winter peak season, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may gradually increase, and farmers are expected to slow down the slaughter rhythm, so the weight is unlikely to decline significantly [15]. - **Demand Analysis** - Currently, demand is in the off - season, and the slaughter volume remains low. In addition to actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage create short - term demand and provide support at low prices. Recently, most secondary fattening pigs are being sold, and attention should be paid to future changes in the secondary fattening rhythm [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of August 7, the breeding cost of large - scale farms using the self - breeding and self - raising model is 13.09 yuan/kg, and that of the purchased piglet model is 14.44 yuan/kg. Breeding enterprise profits are shrinking [35]. - The breeding capacity is relatively stable. Farmers are still cautious about the future market. Sow replenishment is mainly for replacement by large - scale farms, and the enthusiasm for purchasing piglets is average [36]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state's reserve purchase and release of pork regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the live pig market. In the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, the National Development and Reform Commission will start the third batch of central pork reserve purchases this year [45]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for live pigs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [8]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the laying rate. Since the second half of 2024, the enthusiasm for replenishment has been high, so the number of newly - laid hens will be high until the third quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the number of culled hens is relatively limited, so the inventory of laying hens will remain at a relatively high level until the third quarter [64]. - In the short term, the laying rate is seasonally low, and the number of culled old hens has increased recently, but the overall supply is still abundant [65]. - Due to the weakening of feed prices, the breeding cost of eggs has decreased, currently around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [66]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population structure, economic development, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend in recent years. In the medium - and short - term, egg demand has obvious seasonality, with short - term peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, demand is seasonally rebounding, and food factories are starting to stock up [76]. - Although the improvement in supply and the rebound in demand support the stability of spot prices, the overall supply remains high, and the price of the JD2509 contract is expected to be under pressure as it is in the post - festival period [77]. - **Inventory Analysis** - Data on the inventory days of fresh eggs in the production and circulation links are provided, showing their changes over time [84]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc.) and basis for eggs, showing their changes compared to the previous week [85].

Core Insights - The majority of listed pig farming companies reported a decrease in pig sales in July compared to June, despite some year-on-year growth in sales volume and revenue [1][5]. Group 1: Company Sales Reports - Giant Star Agriculture reported sales of 324,100 pigs in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.67%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [2]. - Kemin Foods' subsidiary sold 41,900 pigs in July 2025, with a month-on-month decline of 28.78% and a year-on-year increase of 73.88% in sales volume [2]. - New Hope sold 1,302,500 pigs in July 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.06% and a year-on-year increase of 3.21% in sales volume [3]. - Muyuan Foods sold 6,355,000 pigs in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.02%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [4]. - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3,164,800 pigs in July 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 36.22% in sales volume [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - The overall market price for pigs remains at a low level, with the price on August 7, 2025, at 14.34 yuan/kg, slightly up from 14.22 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 [6]. - The wholesale price of pork on August 7, 2025, was 20.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease from 20.50 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 [6]. - Domestic pig futures prices have strengthened since mid to late July, closing at 14,100 yuan/ton on August 7, 2025, compared to below 13,000 yuan/ton in late May 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports for July from various listed pig farming companies indicate a general decline in sales volume compared to June, while prices remain at historically low levels [1][2][8]. Sales Performance Summary - Giant Star Agriculture reported sales of 324,100 pigs in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.67%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [4]. - Kemin Foods' subsidiary sold 41,900 pigs in July, with a month-on-month decline of 28.78% but a year-on-year increase of 73.88%. Revenue decreased by 38.92% month-on-month but increased by 6.08% year-on-year [4]. - New Hope sold 1,302,500 pigs in July, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 2.06% and a year-on-year increase of 3.21%. Revenue fell by 3.67% month-on-month and 24.62% year-on-year [5]. - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 6,355,000 pigs in July, a year-on-year increase of 13.02%, but a decrease in sales volume and revenue compared to June [6]. - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3,164,800 pigs in July, with a year-on-year increase in sales but a decrease in revenue compared to June [6]. Price Trends Summary - The overall market price for live pigs remains low, with the price on August 7, 2025, at 14.34 yuan/kg, slightly up from 14.22 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025, but down from 15.98 yuan/kg at the end of 2024 [9]. - The wholesale price of pork on August 7, 2025, was 20.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease from 20.50 yuan/kg at the end of July 2025 [9]. - The domestic pig futures market has seen some strengthening, with the main contract price reaching 14,100 yuan/ton as of August 7, 2025, compared to less than 13,000 yuan/ton in late May [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Section Summaries Market Dynamics - On July 31, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 7,850 lots today, with a position of approximately 45,200 lots. The highest price was 14,180 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,065 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be in a state of volatile adjustment. - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the 09 contract is almost at par with the spot price [4]. Market Overview - On July 31, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15% from the previous day. The average price in Henan was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg or 1.65%. - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts decreased, except for the 09 contract which remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan increased by 230 yuan/ton to 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 242.11% [6]. Key Data Tracking The report provides historical data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip pork average prices, corn purchase prices, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as data on the basis of the main pig futures contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts [6][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs increases and demand is weak, putting pressure on pig prices. In the long - term, policies such as the anti - involution initiative and high - quality development of the pig industry are expected to benefit pig prices, and the impact of policies on production capacity needs to be monitored [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On July 31, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards, closing down 0.32% at 14,075 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,308 lots to 175,934 lots [8] - **Spot market**: On July 31, the average price of ternary pigs in China was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased slightly. On July 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, down 500 from the previous day and up 2,400 from a week ago [9] - **Supply side**: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of farmers accelerated, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreased slightly. The utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is high, and there are still pigs for secondary fattening to be sold in the future [9] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [10][12] 3.3 Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads [20] - As of the week of July 24, the average weight of live pigs for sale was 128.48 kg, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease and a 2.46% year - on - year increase [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to remain under pressure. In the long - term, although pig supply shows a slight increase, favorable policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection in some regions will have a positive impact on pig prices, and the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity needs attention [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 30th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 33 lots to 186,242 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 30th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,400 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 3,900 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening was high, with more pigs for secondary fattening still to be slaughtered [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24th was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 28, the main contract 2509 of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down. The highest was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 294 lots to 193,333 lots [9]. - Spot: On July 28, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.03 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day and 2,200 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties was relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Market Outlook - In general, in late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale enterprises increased. In order to achieve the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises continued to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the near-month futures contracts are following the decline of the spot market. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly, but the anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium- and long-term performance of pig prices. The far-month contract 2601 is strongly supported by factors such as the expected weight reduction and the supply increase being less than the demand increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 162 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -63 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 63 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [20]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [20]. - As of the week of July 24, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.46% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the pig industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market shows a situation where pig slaughter volume is shrinking, and the spot price is fluctuating weakly. The supply is affected by factors such as piglet diarrhea in January - February, which impacts the pig slaughter supply from June - July. Meanwhile, demand has shown some recovery, and the inventory of slaughterhouses and frozen products is at a low level compared to the same period. The futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and there are multiple stimulus policies that are expected to boost future pork demand. The market is likely to oscillate at the bottom [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Piglet diarrhea in January - February affected the pig slaughter supply from June - July. After the initial slaughter in mid - June, group farms' willingness to reduce weight decreased, and the spot price stabilized, stimulating secondary fattening散户 to continue holding pigs [3] - **Demand**: Bearish. The slaughter volume from March - April increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating a certain degree of demand recovery [3] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the near - month basis of pigs converged, and the spread between September and January oscillated strongly [3] - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit is stable but slightly weak, yet still positive [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and the downside space is relatively limited [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects and a moderately loose monetary policy, which helps boost future pork demand [3] - **Investment View**: Neutral. The demand for secondary fattening is cautious, the supply side is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are charts showing the prices of standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and front - three - grade white - striped pork in Henan, as well as their price trends from 2021 - 2025 [5] - **Capacity Scale**: Charts display the inventory of sample sows, including the quantity, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes, as well as the inventory data of sows from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of new healthy piglets and commercial pig slaughter in five - province samples, along with survival rates [10][22] - **Commercial Pig Inventory Structure**: Charts show the inventory proportions of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as the standard - fat price difference, north - south price difference, average slaughter weight, and average post - slaughter weight [27] - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation**: Charts present the monthly slaughter volumes of companies such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [40] - **Slaughter Situation**: Charts show daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pork in markets like Xinfadi, the arrival volume of white - striped pork in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [45][53] - **Profit and Cost**: Charts display self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the feed price of fattening pigs [54] 3.3 Pig Capital - Side Data - There are charts showing the basis of different contracts (03, 05, 07, 09) and the price differences between different contracts (03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, 05 - 09) from 2022 - 2025 [59][68]