Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. suggests a weakening labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut next week [1] Group 1: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending September 6, exceeding both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected 235,000 [1] - The U.S. government indicated that non-farm employment numbers may have been overstated by 911,000 over the past 12 months [1] - The August non-farm payroll report showed nearly stagnant job growth, with a decrease in jobs for the first time in four and a half years in June [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The New York Fed survey revealed that consumer confidence in finding jobs fell to its lowest level since June 2013 in August [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1]

特朗普写道，美国"没有通胀"，美联储"必须立刻大幅降息"，并称鲍威尔是"一场彻底的灾难"，还表示 鲍威尔"毫无头绪"。 特朗普已多次要求鲍威尔降息。美国8月失业率上升至4.3%，创近4年来新高，就业数据恶化强化了市 场对美联储降息的预期，分析人士预计美联储或于9月开启新一轮降息。9月7日，白宫经济顾问凯文·哈 西特表示，美联储的货币政策必须完全独立，不应受到任何政治力量的影响，包括来自总统特朗普的影 响。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨和佳 刘雪莹 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月10日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文再次批评美联储 主席鲍威尔，并敦促立即大幅降息。 美国非农就业"蒸发"近百万 尽管市场对美国非农数据下修早有预期，但最终创纪录的下调幅度仍让人意外。 据央视新闻报道，在本次数据公布前，美国财长贝森特也预警年度非农就业数据可能下修多达80万。然 而，最终创纪录的下修幅度远比市场普遍预期的程度还要糟糕。 据新华社报道，美国劳工部9月9日发布的初步修订数据显示，2024年4月至2025年3月美国新增非农就业 岗位比最初统计的少91.1万个，表明美国就业市场的实际表现比此前数据显示的更为疲软。非农就业岗 ...

新华财经北京9月10日电（崔凯）美国劳工统计局于本周二发布初步基准修正数据，揭示过去一年美国 非农就业增长规模显著低于此前公布的官方统计，进一步强化了市场对美联储即将开启降息周期的预 期。此次调整涉及截至今年3月的12个月期就业数据，经修订后的非农就业人数较原统计减少91.1万 人，折合平均每月少增约7.6万个岗位。 据美国劳工统计局披露，本次修正前的原统计数据显示，在未经季节性调整的基础上，美国雇主在截至 3月的一年内累计新增就业岗位近180万人，对应月均增幅为14.9万个。而修正后的数据表明，过去数月 观察到的就业增速放缓并非短期波动现象，而是延续了较长时期的温和增长态势。这一调整幅度引发市 场对劳动力市场真实健康状况的关注。 此次就业数据的大幅修正正值美联储货币政策决策的关键窗口期。市场分析人士指出，就业市场的持续 降温为美联储提供了新的政策线索。根据公开日程，美联储将于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的政策 会议。随着就业数据修正结果公布，市场对美联储在该次会议上启动降息进程的预期显著升温。 美联储主席鲍威尔近期公开承认，就业市场面临的风险正在上升。值得注意的是，7月份的联邦公开市 场委员会（FOMC） ...

中信证券研报指出，美国8月非农数据再度走弱，7月三位小数失业率上升至4.248%，8月三位小数失业 率上升至4.324%，一位小数失业率录得4.3%，符合市场预期。8月新增非农就业人数大幅低于预期，政 府部门和私人部门均走弱。除此以外，本周ADP和PMI就业分项等美国就业数据全面走弱，我们此前观 点得到印证：美国就业市场并不如数据表面所展示的健康，美国就业市场延续降温趋势、经济继续走 弱，但不至于马上陷入衰退。对美联储而言，就业市场风险将再度上行，我们延续此前观点，预计美联 储将在9月议息会议上降息25bps，并在10月和12月分别再降息25bps。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling trend in employment growth since May [5][6]. Employment Data Summary - Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate rose from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August [1]. - Non-Farm Payrolls: August saw an increase of only 22,000 jobs, well below the expected 75,000, marking a significant decline in job growth [1][2]. - Private Sector Employment: The private sector added 38,000 jobs in August, also falling short of the 75,000 forecast [1]. - Job Vacancies: July's JOLTS report indicated 7.181 million job openings, the lowest since September 2024, with the job openings-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 0.99, the first time below 1 since April 2021 [3]. Wage and Hour Trends - Average Weekly Hours and Wages: Both average weekly hours and average hourly wages saw year-on-year declines in August [3]. Manufacturing and Services Employment - ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI: The employment components for both sectors recorded contraction, with manufacturing at 43.8 and services at 46.5 [4]. - ADP Employment Change: The ADP report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 68,000 and previous month's 104,000 [4]. Economic Outlook - Overall Employment Market: The data suggests that the U.S. job market is not as healthy as it appears, continuing a trend of cooling without immediate recession risks [5]. - Interest Rate Expectations: Following the non-farm report, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declined, with market expectations now leaning towards three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points [6]. Job Growth Trends - Job Growth Average: Since May, the average monthly job growth has been only 27,000, compared to 127,000 from January to April [6]. - Job Cuts in Goods Sector: The goods sector, particularly manufacturing, has seen a reduction of 42,000 jobs over the past four months [7]. Market Reactions - Market Response: Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stocks initially rose but then retreated, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [5]. - Rate Cut Projections: Analysts maintain expectations for rate cuts in September and December, with a bias towards consecutive meetings for potential cuts [8].

Group 1 - The list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to three individuals: Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh [3] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell and has indicated he will not renominate Powell after his term ends in May [4] - The recent weak employment report has increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders anticipating a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting [6][5] Group 2 - The latest non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.3% [6] - Analysts from GF Securities suggest that a rate cut is reasonable given the current data, referencing historical precedents where the Fed acted in response to weak employment figures [7] - The macro team at Guotai Junan notes that the weak employment data may pave the way for a rate cut in September, but uncertainty remains regarding the potential for consecutive cuts thereafter [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US non-farm employment data for August remains weak, with downward revisions in the previous two months' data, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - In August, the US added 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [1][2][8] - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly above expectations, while average hourly earnings remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][2] Group 2 - Following the non-farm data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with a 100% probability of a September cut and an increase in the expected number of cuts for the year from 2.4 to 2.8 [1][16] - The employment situation shows a broad weakening across various sectors, with 9 out of 14 industries reporting negative job growth, while only low-end service sectors saw increases [8][10] - The short-term outlook for US employment remains weak, but it may be nearing a bottom, with a low risk of continued deterioration or recession [18][23]

Friday, September 5, 2025This morning, we finish off “Jobs Week” with the Big Kahuna: the Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). August saw another weak month: +22K nonfarm payroll totals was below the +75K anticipated and upwardly revised +79K reported the previous month. The Unemployment Rate ticks up to +4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.The private sector was responsible for +38K new jobs filled last month. That’s still not great, but the headline subtracts ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job growth significantly slowed in August, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021, raising concerns about a potential worsening labor market [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, with revised data showing a decline in employment numbers in June for the first time since 2020 [1] - Recent months have seen a substantial slowdown in job growth, a decrease in job vacancies, and a slowdown in wage growth, all of which are exerting pressure on broader economic activity [1] - Traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its September meeting, with policymakers awaiting the latest CPI report before the meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the labor market and will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September [5][7]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with an unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, marking the weakest performance since the pandemic began in 2020 [5][7]. - If the August job additions meet expectations, it will be the fourth consecutive month with job growth below 100,000 [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but strong employment data could alter this expectation [7]. - Morgan Stanley's chief economist suggests that if 225,000 jobs are added, it may alleviate concerns about the labor market, potentially leading to sustained higher interest rates [7]. Group 3: Revisions to Previous Data - A significant focus of the upcoming report will be whether previous non-farm payroll figures are revised downward, as July's data was unexpectedly weak and previous months were significantly adjusted [9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered warn that the non-farm employment data may be overestimated, with potential downward revisions of 550,000 to 800,000 jobs [9]. Group 4: Current Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with hiring stagnation and low employee turnover, indicating a near standstill [11]. - Job growth is increasingly reliant on a few sectors, such as healthcare and leisure, but even these areas are experiencing a slowdown in job additions [11]. Group 5: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - Gold prices have surged due to rising rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, making the market particularly sensitive to the upcoming non-farm data [13]. - A stronger-than-expected non-farm report could support the dollar, while a weaker report may reinforce expectations for a rate cut, potentially leading to a 50 basis point reduction [13].