2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 一季度美联储重启降息概率不高 ——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 如期降息，扩表在途——2025年12月FOMC 会议点评（2025-12-11） 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-09-18） 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储降息窗口正徐徐打开——2024年3月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-03-21） 美联储为何主动向市场预期靠拢？——2023 年 12 月 FOMC 会议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the U.S. labor market has transitioned from a post-pandemic state of supply-demand imbalance to a more balanced state, with current employment performance showing signs of weakness [1][15][18] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in mid-2025 to 4.4% by the end of 2025, primarily due to an increase in labor supply rather than layoffs [1][18] - Labor force participation rates have rebounded, particularly among youth and immigrants, but the sustainability of this influx is questionable [1][22][27] Group 2 - On the supply side, the increase in unemployment is attributed to a rise in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate stabilizing in the first half of 2025 and then increasing in the second half [18][22] - The demand side faces cooling pressures, with companies absorbing tariff costs and compressing labor costs, leading to a preference for lower-paid workers and increased part-time positions [2][43] - Government funding constraints are limiting personnel expansion, and job mobility among job seekers has decreased, indicating a decline in confidence [2][43][44] Group 3 - The report suggests that if employment continues to weaken and inflation remains manageable, the Federal Reserve may increase the weight of employment risk in its monetary policy decisions, potentially reopening avenues for easing [2][43] - The current market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement less than two rate cuts in 2026 [2][43][31] - The labor market's response to economic conditions is critical, with the potential for a loosening of monetary policy if employment data shows further deterioration [2][43][31]

Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor indicates that initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since November of the previous year, with a decrease of 9,000 claims to 198,000, surpassing economists' expectations [1] - The four-week moving average of new jobless claims fell to 205,000, marking a two-year low, suggesting a stable labor market without the typical surge in layoffs at the beginning of the year [1] - Despite recent layoffs announced by major employers like Pepsi and Meta Platforms Inc., the hard data shows that these actions have not yet led to a large-scale wave of layoffs, indicating resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] Group 2 - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits decreased to 1.88 million, suggesting that more unemployed individuals are finding new jobs or exiting the claims process, further supporting the stability of the U.S. job market [6] - Consumer confidence surveys, such as those from the University of Michigan, reveal a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the labor market, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year [3] - Analysts believe that while hard indicators show a healthy labor market, consumer confidence appears to lag, and future data will provide clearer trend judgments as the holiday season effects diminish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken a significant turn, with President Trump expressing a preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, rather than moving to the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - Kevin Hassett was previously considered a strong candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, but Trump's recent comments suggest he may prefer Hassett to stay in his current role [2][5]. - Following Trump's remarks, Kevin Walsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a probability of 59% for his appointment, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 14% [3]. - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has narrowed the candidates down to four, with an announcement expected before or after the upcoming Davos Forum [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar index rebounded after Trump's comments, while U.S. stock indices collectively fell, reversing earlier gains [1][3]. - Spot gold and silver prices experienced sharp declines, with gold dropping by as much as 1.72% and silver falling by 6% during the trading day [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently facing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to support a weak job market, while others suggest maintaining the current rates due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [6]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6].

Employment Market Overview - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.4% in December, better than the expected 4.5%[6] - The unemployment rate for November was revised down to 4.5%, interrupting the previous upward trend[6] - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.4%, indicating reduced pressure on marginally employed groups[10] Job Creation and Market Conditions - Non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000[19] - Job additions for October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from -105,000 to -173,000[19] - The average weekly hours worked decreased to 34.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.6%[13] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has room to pause interest rate cuts in January, with a current market expectation of only a 5% probability for a rate cut[26] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, now pushed to June and September[26] Risks and Considerations - Political pressure from Trump could further threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[27]

Employment Data Summary - December 2025 non-farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000[6] - Unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, primarily due to supply-side changes rather than demand recovery[6] - Labor force participation rate slightly declined to 62.4%[6] Employment Market Trends - Job vacancies fell to 7.15 million, with the vacancy rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.3%[6] - The three-month moving average of job growth is now at -22,000, indicating a negative trend[9] - Employment growth is concentrated in the service sector, with 58,000 jobs added, while goods-producing industries saw declines[8] Economic Implications - The current low job growth intensity suggests that the unemployment rate may not remain stable long-term[6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with a 95% probability of no rate cut in January 2026[6] - If unemployment rises again, market expectations for policy easing may be quickly adjusted[6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of "weak growth and low unemployment," which has led to a decrease in expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January 2026 [2][3] - In December 2025, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 50,000, which was below the market expectation of 70,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the anticipated 4.5% [2] - Analysts suggest that the current economic data and the potential for a change in the Federal Reserve's leadership in 2026 may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][6] Group 2 - Following the release of the non-farm data, gold prices strengthened, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.29% to $4,518.4 per ounce on January 9, 2026, and continuing to reach historical highs above $4,600 per ounce [3][4] - Factors influencing the rise in gold prices include high geopolitical risks, increasing U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand from global central banks for gold [4][5] - The World Gold Council reported that gold performed exceptionally well in 2025, continuously setting historical records, and forecasts a potential price increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The employment report for December 2025 indicates that both the non-farm payroll additions and the unemployment rate in the U.S. were below expectations, reflecting a balanced state in the job market after six years of adjustment since the pandemic [1] Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, with new non-farm jobs primarily concentrated in specific service sectors [1] - The total non-farm employment additions for the year 2025 were 584,000, significantly lower than the levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The current job market is characterized by "low hiring + low layoffs," suggesting a stable employment environment [1] Economic Advisory Insights - Due to unconventional data disclosures by Trump, there is a recommendation to closely monitor news and research from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts during the January meeting, with a possibility of one more rate cut during Powell's term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. jobs market at the end of 2025 is stable, with no further deterioration, and there is a possibility of improved hiring in the upcoming year [1] Group 1 - The current state of the U.S. jobs market is described as not getting worse, indicating a level of stability [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for hiring improvements in the new year, suggesting potential growth in employment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a continued slowdown in non-farm employment growth, with December's addition dropping to 50,000, below the expected 65,000, and a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [2] - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, indicating a persistent trend of slowing job growth [2] - The leisure and hospitality sectors contributed significantly to job growth, adding 47,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing continued to show negative job growth, indicating weak demand in the sector [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.4%, suggesting a complex labor market dynamic [6] - The number of job vacancies in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, indicating a growing mismatch between labor supply and demand [8] - Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, reflecting resilience in wage growth despite broader economic challenges [9][12] Group 3 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January decreased significantly from 14% to 5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment following the release of the non-farm data [17] - The overall labor market conditions suggest an increasing supply-demand imbalance, which may continue to exert pressure on the employment market moving forward [17]