Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing a downward trend, as evidenced by the significant decline in retail sales and PPI data [2] - April retail sales in the U.S. dropped sharply from a previous value of 1.5% to 0.1%, reflecting weak consumer spending [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decreased from 3.4% to 2.4%, and the month-on-month PPI fell from 0% to -0.5%, suggesting a potential future decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The New York Fed manufacturing index for May worsened from -8.1 to -9.2, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, suggesting that the labor market has not yet shown significant deterioration [2] Group 2 - Current economic uncertainty in the U.S. is leading to hesitancy in consumer spending and business investment, potentially creating a vicious cycle of economic decline [3] - Even President Trump has acknowledged the possibility of the U.S. economy entering a recession [3]

然而，美联储迟迟不采取降息行动，这势必会使已经出现的美国经济的下行趋势更加严重，从而导致未 来美联储在美国经济出现加速下行时不得不采取更加激进的降息措施。 当前美国经济面临的最大问题就是不确定性。当经济的不确定性上升时，企业对未来的经营无所适从， 个人消费者则更加倾向于减少消费。而且一旦这种不确定性深入人心就很难在短期内得以恢复。这将导 致美国经济的冷却，甚至陷入衰退。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5月13日公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI年率从前值2.4%小幅下降至2.3%，继续稳步下行。美国4月CPI月 率虽然从前值-0.1%上升至0.2%，但是上升幅度不及预期的0.3%。这反映出美国经济的通货膨胀率并未 出现明显的反弹。 同时公布的美国4月核心CPI年率与上月持平，仍然维持在2.8%。美国4月核心CPI月率从前值0.1%上升 至0.2%，但是同样升幅不及预期的0.3%。 笔者认为，上述最新的美国4月CPI数据比市场普遍担心的通货膨胀率的大幅上升要好得多，支撑美联 ...