Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increases is limited, South American soybean production is set, US soybean planting is about to start, domestic soybean stocks are accumulating, and with sufficient rainfall for US soybeans in the next 15 days, there is a lack of fundamental bullish support [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, new - season rapeseeds will be harvested in May, the substitution of rapeseed meal has decreased, and it is under pressure to fall due to inventory and supply [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. International palm oil supply and demand both increased in April, with marginal supply improvement. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports. The short - term rebound is due to good export data from Malaysia, but long - term trends need to consider US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil exports [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Pressured and volatile. US macro data slightly benefits the commodity market, some countries show a tendency to purchase under tariff pressure, domestic cotton inventory is high and being reduced, new cotton is being sown, and the downstream demand is cautious, with the price expected to remain weak after a rebound [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The market is in the traditional off - season, fresh fruits are on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand has not improved significantly, with prices expected to fluctuate and consolidate [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Rebound under pressure. The impact of the trade war has faded, the market cost - driven sentiment has slowed, supply is excessive, the consumption end lacks growth momentum, and there is a risk of a callback after the pre - holiday stocking market contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3396.57 yuan/ton, up 45.71 yuan or 1.36% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 400.82 million tons, up 100.07 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 362.24 million tons, up 71.81 million tons week - on - week, and bean粕 inventory was 29.05 million tons, down 28.86 million tons week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2597 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 9.47 yuan or 0.37% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of April 11, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 34.8 million tons, up 5.5 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 2.07 million tons, down 1.06 million tons week - on - week [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8132 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan or 0.88% from the previous day. The national average price was 9080 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan or 1.44% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of a certain period, the weekly commercial inventory was 37.11 million tons, down 0.23 million tons from the previous period [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14203 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [10]. - **Planting and Inventory Data**: As of April 13, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 5%. In China, the Xinjiang cotton sowing progress reached 62.3%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 million tons, down 11 million tons from the previous period [11][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.32% from the previous day. The prices in different regions remained stable [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous period [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14465 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.13% [16]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly live pig inventory was 3689.1 million tons, up 13.17 million tons month - on - month; the monthly live pig出栏量 was 1087.03 million tons, up 156.55 million tons month - on - month [16].