1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase, and although the 10% tariff on US soybeans limits the actual negative impact on prices, the short - term bearish pattern dominates. Pay attention to US soybean planting weather and China - US progress [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. The short - term bearish pattern still dominates [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase in April, and the Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly. The China - US peace talks drive the rebound of US cotton prices, but the purchase increment space is limited. The domestic supply and demand situation is complex, with short - term support below 13,000 yuan strengthening, and caution is needed when chasing long positions in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high - inventory pressure exists. The post - May Day downstream arrival and transaction have accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging, which supports the short - term disk [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The supply surplus is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There is insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, but short - term lack of rain will not affect planting due to previous heavy rainfall. Pay attention to subsequent rainfall, and there may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. With the resumption of post - holiday operations and soybean arrivals, the supply environment is gradually loosening, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are falling. As of May 9, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean inventory have increased [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,886 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 9, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased. The import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 9, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased compared with the previous month. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil closed up the day before yesterday, and it is regarded as a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the gap resistance [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, the global production will decrease by 710,000 tons year - on - year, and consumption will increase by 304,000 tons. The ending inventory in the US, China, Brazil, and Australia will change differently [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 has increased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, but the tariff adjustment may drive up the demand for cotton [13]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.68%. The spot price also increased. The basis, cross - period spread, and other indicators have changed [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Production Area and Inventory**: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase from last week and still higher than the same period [16]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.06%. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, and the stocking is a short - term rebound [16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 remained stable. The domestic live pig spot price decreased slightly. In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in May will increase slightly, and the weight will also increase slightly. In the medium term, the third - quarter supply may increase, and in the long term, the supply in early next year may be slightly affected by the number of breeding sows [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply surplus is expected to dominate the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The consumption side lacks continuous growth momentum [19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期偏空震荡 | 中美贸易加征关税事件利多影响暂告一段落。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开 | | | | 启，未来十五天降雨存在不足，但由于前期降雨较多，短时间内降雨不足暂不会对 | | | | 种植造成影响，关注后续持续降雨情况，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，5 月美国五大湖 | | | | 地区存在降雨不足的问题。国内方面，截止本周一最新数据，国内港口及油厂大豆 | | | | 连续四周累库，大豆压榨小幅环比持续回升，但油厂豆粕库存继续呈现去库状态， | | 豆粕 | | 考虑节前备货需求，五一节前后国内豆粕供应暂维持偏紧状态。5-7 月月均进口预 | | | | 估 1000 万吨以上。供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 10%的 | | | | 关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限，利空远月豆粕价 | | | | 格。美豆种植进入天气炒作阶段，市场做空谨慎，关注后续降雨情况，目前来看， | | | | 后期降雨恢复。豆粕昨日探低回升，技术上有暂止跌整理的意图，但短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].