Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations [2][3][5] - Gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a high of 4020, dropping to a low of 3886 before stabilizing and showing signs of recovery [1][7] - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the potential trade agreement framework between the US and China, leading to decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29, with a high probability of another cut in December, which typically supports gold prices but is overshadowed by trade optimism [3][4] - Economic indicators show that US stock indices are at record highs, with strong performance in technology stocks, resulting in capital outflows from gold [3][5] - Key upcoming economic data includes the US pending home sales index and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could further impact market dynamics [3][11] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, gold prices are in a correction phase after hitting a resistance level at 4381, with significant support at 3886 [7][9] - Short-term resistance levels to watch include 4030, with potential upward targets at 4075, 4134, and 4192/4193 if the price breaks above [7][9] - The four-hour analysis indicates that if the current downtrend continues, the market should be monitored for a potential upward movement after a stabilization phase [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish with some uncertainty**: Soybean (★☆☆), Egg (★☆☆) [1] - **Trend of long position**: Soybean No.1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★) [1] - **Trend of short position**: Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Meal (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (☆☆☆), Live Pig (☆☆☆) [1] - **Relatively balanced short - term trend**: Corn (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pig, and egg, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationship, trade policies, and market sentiment [2][3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions, and the price continued to decline. The auction price was 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains. The spread between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. The US soybean market lacks official data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase performance and policy guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures first declined and then rose, and the spot price dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures will likely continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to palm oil started to decline, with palm oil falling more. The EU proposed a ban on importing forest - destroying commodities, and the Malaysian palm oil production and export increased in October. The US soybean market lacks data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the ratio adjustment, and in the long - term, opportunities for oil to be stronger than meal should be sought [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products market is weak. The market is waiting for the development of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is over, but the export has not improved. The Australian rapeseed will arrive in the fourth quarter, and the Russian rapeseed oil export to China may increase. The short - term trend of rapeseed products futures is not obvious [5] Corn - The main contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. The spot price in the Northeast is stable, and the supply of wet corn is sufficient. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The new corn listing in the Northeast will increase in the next two weeks, and the corn futures will likely continue to run weakly at the bottom [6] Live Pig - The live pig spot price rebounded driven by secondary fattening, and the futures oscillated narrowly. The pig price has entered a rebound cycle, but due to the large supply pressure, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended after the rebound. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [7] Egg - The egg futures rose and then fell, and the market remained weak. The old - hen culling sentiment is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold. The short - selling trend of the futures continues [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand, trade relations, and government policies on prices and provides corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract has reduced positions and prices have corrected. The auction of domestic soybeans provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a correction trend. The market sentiment for imported soybeans is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress, market acquisition performance, and policy guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal (Lianpo) continues to oscillate at a low level. The current domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations continue to deteriorate, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if Sino - US trade does not ease, Lianpo is likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are oscillating, and the oil - meal ratio is adjusted. The short - term domestic soybean crushing demand is good, but the export demand is uncertain. The international palm oil market has near - term weak demand and long - term positive expectations. In the long - term, it is expected that oils are more resilient than meals, and it is advisable to buy oils at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have declined. The rise in foreign oilseed prices reflects optimistic expectations for Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, which puts pressure on the domestic market. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - term long position in rapeseed products and use rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies [6] Corn - The main corn contract has increased positions and prices have risen. The supply of wet corn in the Northeast is sufficient, and the supply in Shandong has decreased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The corn market is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom, with possible increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, driven by secondary fattening and consumption improvement. Although the supply pressure is still large, the price is in a rebound cycle. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds, as there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has continued to fall, and the futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The old - hen culling is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs are a potential pressure on the spot market. It is recommended to hold a short position [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **General**: The report focuses on the weekly situation of soybean meal and soybean oil futures, including their mid - term trends, trading strategies, and related data [6][31]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures are in a stage of shock consolidation. The high domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures are in a horizontal shock stage. The abundant global and domestic soybean supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean meal main contract is in a shock consolidation stage. In the 41st week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1.2893 million tons, the startup rate was 35.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons. High domestic soybean arrival, high inventory, and weak demand suppress price increases, but the policy on port fees may affect the arrival rhythm in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress and South American weather [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, and funds were bearish. The M2601 was expected to fluctuate between 2880 - 3050 in the short term [9]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, and funds are slightly bearish. The M2601 is expected to continue the shock consolidation pattern, with an expected operating range of 2800 - 3000 [10]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][23][26]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend**: The soybean oil main contract is in a horizontal shock stage. In the 41st week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 245,000 tons, a decrease of 88,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from the previous week. Abundant supply, slow demand recovery, and price fluctuations of competing products lead to market wait - and - see sentiment [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends and the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy [31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Review**: The soybean oil futures price was in a horizontal stage, and funds were bullish. The Y2601 was expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **This Week's Suggestion**: The soybean oil futures price is in a horizontal stage, and funds are slightly bearish. The Y2601 is expected to be in a range - shock pattern in the short term [34]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report mentions data such as soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [43][49][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has reached its short - term upward limit, and investors should be wary of a decline in sentiment [1]. - Soybean oil will trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,936 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.85%, closing price (night session) was 8,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.16%. Trading volume was 673,443 lots, an increase of 45,660 lots, and open interest was 456,448 lots, a decrease of 59,879 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: closing price (day session) was 8,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 8,112 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. Trading volume was 382,038 lots, a decrease of 18,122 lots, and open interest was 504,638 lots, a decrease of 17,389 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: closing price (day session) was 9,457 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.37%, closing price (night session) was 9,384 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. Trading volume was 309,343 lots, an increase of 44,920 lots, and open interest was 210,783 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots [2]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price was 8,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price was 9,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 64 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 186 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 521 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 792 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% decrease compared to the same period last month [3]. - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period last month [5]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IPA) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (IPOA) signed a three - year agreement to deepen economic ties and ensure food security [5]. - The US Soybean Export Association (USSEC) believes it is reasonable for India to import soybeans from the US. In 2023/24, India imported 970,000 tons of non - GM soybeans from African countries, but in 2024/25, imports decreased by 84% to 154,000 tons [5]. - In Q2 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and from January to June, production reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). From April to June, soybean oil consumption as a raw material increased by 10% to 1.6 million tons, and its proportion in biodiesel production reached a record 79% in May and June. During this period, Brazil's soybean oil exports remained at 420,000 tons [6]. - After Argentina raised export taxes, soybean sales slowed down last week. As of July 16, farmers had pre - sold 26.64 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 400,000 tons more than the previous week; 450,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 30,000 tons more than the previous week; and 40.71 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, 10,000 tons more than the previous week [7]. - Expana raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month and a 16.7% increase from last year. The soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease from last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase from the same period last year. As of July 20, the commercial inventory was 1.1823 million tons [8]. - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased by 4.4 million tons, with EU production decreasing by 3 million tons and Ukraine's by 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Ukraine's rapeseed exports were 3.1 million tons, a 16% decrease year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, due to adverse weather, UkrAgro Consult estimated Ukraine's rapeseed production to be between 2.7 - 2.8 million tons [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10].

Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - Soybean oil: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybeans rose slightly, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][10] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][13] - Sugar: Bullish sentiment [2][18] - Cotton: Fluctuate following the commodity market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: Peak season arrives first, culling sentiment declines [2][29] - Pigs: Reverse spread structure formed [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2][37] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,104 yuan/ton with a 1.22% increase, and night - trading was 9,016 yuan/ton with a - 0.97% change. Soybean oil's day - trading was 8,166 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase, and night - trading was 8,142 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. Spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil in Guangdong both increased by 50 yuan/ton [4] - **News**: Malaysia's MPOB expects 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons. Indonesia's GAPKI predicts 2025 palm oil exports to drop to 28 million tons while production rises to 50 million tons [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - trading closed at 3,025 yuan/ton with a - 2.29% change, and night - trading was 3,029 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% change. DCE soybean 2509's day - trading was 4,224 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, and night - trading was 4,221 yuan/ton with a + 0.36% change [10] - **News**: On July 24, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, driven by technical buying and trade hopes. A Chinese buyer signed a 30,000 - ton Argentine soybean meal import agreement, causing CBOT soybean meal prices to fall [9][10][12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2509's day - trading closed at 2,321 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% change, and night - trading was 2,314 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. C2511's day - trading was 2,274 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and night - trading was 2,265 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change [13] - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, and prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends. Imported grains like sorghum and barley also had corresponding price quotes [14] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,030 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,866 yuan/ton [18] - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly. ISO predicted a 24/25 global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons [18][20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's day - trading closed at 14,160 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - trading was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.46% change. CY2509's day - trading was 20,360 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night - trading was 20,425 yuan/ton with a 0.32% change [23] - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable, new offers increased, and the cotton textile market was weak with slow sales and inventory accumulation [24] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,562 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.25% change, and Egg 2510 closed at 3,399 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change [29] - **News**: The peak season for eggs has arrived, and the culling sentiment has declined [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts also showed corresponding changes [33] - **News**: In the short - term, the LH2509 contract has a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 15,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the spot price is weak [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: PK510 closed at 8,130 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and PK511 closed at 7,990 yuan/ton with a 0.15% change [37] - **News**: The peanut spot market in Henan was mainly for inventory trading, and new peanuts in some areas were expected to be on the market in about 20 days [38]

Report Overview - **Date**: July 24, 2025 - **Publisher**: Guotai Junan Futures - **Subject**: Agricultural Commodity Research Morning Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro factors, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Monitor Sino-US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by concerns over substitution, the futures market is adjusting downward [2][9] - **Soybean No. 1**: Adjusting downward following the soybean market [2][9] - **Corn**: Focus on the spot market [2][12] - **Sugar**: Monitor the sugarcane crushing progress in Brazil [2][17] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating with the sentiment of the commodity market [2][22] - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29] - **Hogs**: Strong macro sentiment, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][31] - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [2][35] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices showed fluctuations, with the day - session closing price at 8,994 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) and the night - session at 8,952 yuan/ton (down 0.47%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Indonesia's May palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons, and exports soared. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [5][6]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The day - session closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,074 yuan/ton (down 0.02%), and the night - session was 8,062 yuan/ton (down 0.15%). Spot prices in Guangdong dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was 186 yuan/ton [4]. - **News**: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, which will affect the price trend of soybean oil [2][4]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals**: For DCE soybean meal 2509, the day - session closing price was 3,095 yuan/ton (up 0.62%), and the night - session was 3,041 yuan/ton (down 1.78%). For DCE soybean No. 1 2509, the day - session was 4,217 yuan/ton (up 0.09%), and the night - session was 4,193 yuan/ton (down 0.85%). Spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal also changed [9]. - **News**: On July 23, CBOT soybean futures fell due to good weather in the Midwest and news that China may reduce soybean meal consumption [9][11]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of C2509 was 2,321 yuan/ton (down 0.17%), and the night - session was 2,315 yuan/ton (down 0.26%). Spot prices in different regions had different trends [12]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, while the container collection prices decreased slightly. The prices in the northeast and north China had different changes [13]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.18 cents/pound (down 0.08%), the mainstream spot price was 6,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures主力 price was 5,834 yuan/ton (up 11). The basis was 206 yuan/ton (down 11) [17]. - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly year - on - year. Different institutions had different forecasts for the global and domestic sugar supply and demand situation [17][18][19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: Cotton futures prices declined slightly. The day - session closing price of CF2509 was 14,180 yuan/ton (down 0.32%), and the night - session was 14,140 yuan/ton (down 0.28%). Spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [22]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was light, the cotton yarn market trading was weak, and the ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [23][24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices rose. The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,613 yuan/500 kg (up 1.03%), and that of egg 2510 was 3,403 yuan/500 kg (up 0.18%). Spot prices in different regions increased [29]. - **News**: The peak season for eggs arrives early, and the sentiment for culling hens declines [2][29]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices in different regions declined, while the futures price of LH2509 was 14,590 yuan/ton (up 210). The trading volume and open interest of different contracts increased [31][34]. - **News**: Currently in the off - season for consumption, the spot price is weak. The macro sentiment is strong, but the premium on the futures market has increased. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of LH2509 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut futures prices showed different trends. The closing price of PK510 was 8,142 yuan/ton (up 0.02%), and that of PK511 was 7,972 yuan/ton (down 0.33%). Spot prices remained stable, and the basis in different regions was positive [35]. - **News**: The raw material procurement in different regions has basically ended, and the market is mainly trading inventory. The new peanut drought has been slightly alleviated [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].