Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly increased since mid - July, with the stock market strengthening and commodity prices warming up, which has put pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not experienced a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, and the decline in bond - allocation costs in the second half of the year may further expand the bond market space [11][12] Group 3: Market Conditions Market Quotes - On July 29, the afternoon recovery of the stock market and commodities suppressed the bond market, causing the decline of treasury bond futures to widen in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds all rose, with an increase of about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7475%, up 3.25bp [8][9] Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 117.870 | - 0.930 | - 0.78 | 140838 | 120771 | 488 | | TL2512 | 117.490 | - 1.000 | - 0.84 | 20938 | 39248 | 3664 | |... |... |... |... |... |... |... | [6] Capital Market - At the end of the month, the central bank made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2148 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 2344 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates declined across the board, while medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10] Group 4: Industry News - On July 28, local time, the China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The National Conference on the Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments in Beijing deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year. The Market Supervision and Development Planning Symposium in Beijing put forward requirements for market supervision in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The CF40's macro - policy quarterly report for Q2 2025 pointed out that further counter - cyclical policies are needed to achieve the annual economic growth target [13][14] Group 5: Data Overview - The data overview includes treasury bond futures market (such as main contract spreads and trends), money market (such as SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates), and derivatives market (such as interest - rate swap curves) [15][23][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under significant pressure due to increased institutional redemptions, with the 10y Treasury bond yield fluctuating. The current redemption is a small - scale wave driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank maintains a relatively mild monetary policy stance. The bond market will enter a "hard mode" from August to October, and investment strategies should shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading [11][3][59] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How will the stock - bond seesaw driven by risk preference play out? - **Judgment on the current redemption level**: Bank wealth management has a safety cushion, and the focus is on the redemption pressure of funds. Since the beginning of the year, the safety cushion of wealth management has stabilized the net value, and it has maintained net buying of bonds. The current redemption is concentrated in the fund sector, with obvious preventive redemptions by institutional investors [15][18] - **Review of bond market redemptions driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect**: Since 2022, there have been eight rounds of redemptions, with only the one in November 2022 being a large - scale one involving both funds and bank wealth management. The rest are small - scale ones mainly affecting funds. Redemption periods usually last 1 - 2 weeks, and they often end with a decline in the equity market [21][26] - **Current stage of redemption**: The market is in the negative feedback stage of the redemption wave, with the intensity similar to that in February 2025. Although the redemption pressure shows signs of relief, there is still a risk of recurrence, and the 10y Treasury bond yield may have an additional 4 - 8BP adjustment space [34][35] 2. Has the central bank's attitude changed? - The short - term amplification of capital friction during the bond market's weak adjustment does not necessarily mean a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's current liquidity injection is mainly short - term, and in the third quarter, factors such as fiscal policies, equity market diversion, and redemption frictions have increased capital disturbances. However, the central bank's current operations still show a relatively mild monetary policy stance [3][56] 3. From August to October, the bond market trading enters the "hard mode" - Seasonally, from August to October, bond market disturbances increase, and yields tend to rise. This year, due to the central bank's tightening of funds in the first quarter and the forward - shifting of market trading, the 10y Treasury bond yield has adjusted ahead of the seasonal pattern. After August, the bond market still faces uncertainties such as tariff negotiations and policy effect verification [59][61] - In reality, the fundamental data shows a "weak recovery" pattern, and there is no signal of a trend reversal, which provides some support for the bond market's upward movement [63] 4. Bond market strategy: Shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading - Maintain the view of a volatile bond market in the second half of the year. The 10y Treasury bond above 1.75% has allocation value, and the 30y Treasury bond has allocation value when the 30 - 10y spread is around 25bp. Trading desks should avoid large - scale left - hand trading [70][71] - From August to October, the market will be volatile, increasing the demand for liquidity. It is necessary to shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading and reduce positions in illiquid assets that have realized profits during favorable market windows [72][75] - Short - term products such as certificates of deposit have allocation value when the central bank's attitude is stable. Certificates of deposit above 1.65% and credit products after adjustment may be considered for allocation [78] 5. Review of the interest - rate bond market: Institutional redemption sentiment resurfaces, and the bond market is significantly pressured - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has a small - scale net injection, and the funding situation is tight first and then loose [12] - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has decreased, while that of local government bonds has increased [94] - **Benchmark changes**: The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have widened [88]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | --- | | | 表1：国债期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 119.520 | 118.900 | 119.270 | 119.35 ...

Group 1 - The core asset in the stock market is the CSI 300 index, recognized for its strong representation, high market acceptance, active trading, and large allocation [1] - The bond market has not experienced the anticipated bull market in the first half of the year, instead showing a "V-shaped" fluctuation due to various factors including changes in monetary policy and liquidity [3][4] - The 10-year government bond yield reached a high of 1.90% in March before stabilizing around 1.66% by July 10, 2025, indicating a return to a more stable environment [3][6] Group 2 - The external environment, including tariff policies and domestic economic factors, suggests a favorable environment for the bond market in the second half of the year, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [6][7] - The 10-year government bond is considered the core asset of the bond market, widely accepted as a benchmark for measuring interest rates and market yields [8] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown consistent positive returns since its inception in August 2017, making it suitable for investors seeking stability [9][12] Group 3 - The 10-year government bond ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading, low management fees of approximately 0.2% per year, and transparency in holdings, making it an attractive option for investors [12] - The rapid growth of the 10-year government bond ETF, surpassing 15 billion, reflects the market's recognition of this core asset [12]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Views - In July, short - term treasury bond varieties may be more certain. Considering the current economic situation, with the marginal slowdown but still resilient support from export - grabbing, slow progress but no further escalation of conflicts in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the US further delaying the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs with other countries, the market's risk - aversion sentiment and short - term policy demand are reduced. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period. The resurgence of monetary easing may occur in October after the domestic economic recovery situation is clear, the tariff negotiation results are clear, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, short - term capital interest rates are only maintaining a loose state and cannot further decline, making it difficult to open up the downward space for long - term interest rates. Short - term varieties may be more resilient, and the 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform better, considering the expected loose policy of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The impact of the year - on - year increase in CPI was limited. There was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The A - share market weakened at the end of the session, and the bond market recovered and rose [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased slightly. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.643%, remaining unchanged [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding was loose, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funding interest rates rebounded slightly across the board. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day interest rate rebounded 1.3bp to around 1.47%, and medium - and long - term funds remained loose. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated little around 1.6% [10] 4.2 Industry News - **Tariff News**: US President Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and might send a tax letter to the EU in the next two days. He also planned to impose tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. The US Commerce Secretary said that the copper tariff would be in place in late July or on August 1, and the investigation into the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors would be completed by the end of the month. Affected by this news, New York copper futures soared, with the increase reaching 17% at one point, reaching $5.89 per pound. Trump has issued tariff rate threats to 14 countries, with different tariff rates for each country, and these tariffs will take effect on August 1. Previously, the White House postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1 [13] - **Diplomatic Response**: Regarding Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on BRICS countries, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the BRICS mechanism is an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, advocating openness, inclusiveness, and win - win cooperation, and not engaging in camp confrontation or targeting any country. China has repeatedly stated its position on tariff increases, believing that trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future [14] - **Hong Kong Policy**: The "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong will take effect in August. The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Xu Zhengyu, said that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is currently consulting the market on the implementation guidelines, which will be announced this month, covering anti - money laundering and other related requirements. The number of stablecoin licenses to be issued will be in single digits, and the goal is to issue licenses within this year [14] - **Shipping Industry**: The Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the China Shipping Prosperity Report for the second quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, the China Shipping Prosperity Index was 120.81 points, up 14.77 points from the previous quarter, rising to the relatively prosperous range; the China Shipping Confidence Index was 123.22 points, up 12.89 points from the previous quarter, rising from the relatively prosperous range to the relatively prosperous range [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on July 9, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]