Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under significant pressure due to increased institutional redemptions, with the 10y Treasury bond yield fluctuating. The current redemption is a small - scale wave driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank maintains a relatively mild monetary policy stance. The bond market will enter a "hard mode" from August to October, and investment strategies should shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading [11][3][59] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How will the stock - bond seesaw driven by risk preference play out? - **Judgment on the current redemption level**: Bank wealth management has a safety cushion, and the focus is on the redemption pressure of funds. Since the beginning of the year, the safety cushion of wealth management has stabilized the net value, and it has maintained net buying of bonds. The current redemption is concentrated in the fund sector, with obvious preventive redemptions by institutional investors [15][18] - **Review of bond market redemptions driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect**: Since 2022, there have been eight rounds of redemptions, with only the one in November 2022 being a large - scale one involving both funds and bank wealth management. The rest are small - scale ones mainly affecting funds. Redemption periods usually last 1 - 2 weeks, and they often end with a decline in the equity market [21][26] - **Current stage of redemption**: The market is in the negative feedback stage of the redemption wave, with the intensity similar to that in February 2025. Although the redemption pressure shows signs of relief, there is still a risk of recurrence, and the 10y Treasury bond yield may have an additional 4 - 8BP adjustment space [34][35] 2. Has the central bank's attitude changed? - The short - term amplification of capital friction during the bond market's weak adjustment does not necessarily mean a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's current liquidity injection is mainly short - term, and in the third quarter, factors such as fiscal policies, equity market diversion, and redemption frictions have increased capital disturbances. However, the central bank's current operations still show a relatively mild monetary policy stance [3][56] 3. From August to October, the bond market trading enters the "hard mode" - Seasonally, from August to October, bond market disturbances increase, and yields tend to rise. This year, due to the central bank's tightening of funds in the first quarter and the forward - shifting of market trading, the 10y Treasury bond yield has adjusted ahead of the seasonal pattern. After August, the bond market still faces uncertainties such as tariff negotiations and policy effect verification [59][61] - In reality, the fundamental data shows a "weak recovery" pattern, and there is no signal of a trend reversal, which provides some support for the bond market's upward movement [63] 4. Bond market strategy: Shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading - Maintain the view of a volatile bond market in the second half of the year. The 10y Treasury bond above 1.75% has allocation value, and the 30y Treasury bond has allocation value when the 30 - 10y spread is around 25bp. Trading desks should avoid large - scale left - hand trading [70][71] - From August to October, the market will be volatile, increasing the demand for liquidity. It is necessary to shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading and reduce positions in illiquid assets that have realized profits during favorable market windows [72][75] - Short - term products such as certificates of deposit have allocation value when the central bank's attitude is stable. Certificates of deposit above 1.65% and credit products after adjustment may be considered for allocation [78] 5. Review of the interest - rate bond market: Institutional redemption sentiment resurfaces, and the bond market is significantly pressured - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has a small - scale net injection, and the funding situation is tight first and then loose [12] - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has decreased, while that of local government bonds has increased [94] - **Benchmark changes**: The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have widened [88]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 陆家嘴论坛后，宽松交易或延续 2025 年 6 月 18 日上午，第十五届陆家嘴论坛开幕。2024 年陆家嘴论坛央行行 长发表关于当前的货币政策立场和未来货币政策框架的相关表态，其后货币政 策框架改革加速推进，故市场对于本次论坛内容较为关注。本文主要回顾 2019 年以来历次会议央行领导的主题发言内容以及债券市场表现。 陆家嘴论坛央行行长讲话回顾 回顾 2019 年以来央行行长的演讲的内容，2019-2020 年：会议主要聚焦上海 "五个中心"定位。2021-2023 年：议题转向绿色金融与普惠金融等，会议主 题呼应"双碳"目标与小微实体支持。2024 年：议题聚焦货币政策框架改革， 推动货币政策实现了数量型和价格型调控并行向以价格型调控为主导、以利率 为核心的货币政策框架转变。 2025 年：本次会议演讲围绕全球金融治理展开。值得关注的是，央行领导在 全球金融稳定体系所面临的挑战中重点提及非银行中介机构的监管仍然薄弱 的问题，关注非银机构的杠杆水平变化以及后续监管落实。 历史陆家嘴论坛后的收益率表现 从债市表现看，由于历次论坛央行领导表态多与绿色发展、国际合作、金融开 ...