1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under significant pressure due to increased institutional redemptions, with the 10y Treasury bond yield fluctuating. The current redemption is a small - scale wave driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank maintains a relatively mild monetary policy stance. The bond market will enter a "hard mode" from August to October, and investment strategies should shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading [11][3][59] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How will the stock - bond seesaw driven by risk preference play out? - **Judgment on the current redemption level**: Bank wealth management has a safety cushion, and the focus is on the redemption pressure of funds. Since the beginning of the year, the safety cushion of wealth management has stabilized the net value, and it has maintained net buying of bonds. The current redemption is concentrated in the fund sector, with obvious preventive redemptions by institutional investors [15][18] - **Review of bond market redemptions driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect**: Since 2022, there have been eight rounds of redemptions, with only the one in November 2022 being a large - scale one involving both funds and bank wealth management. The rest are small - scale ones mainly affecting funds. Redemption periods usually last 1 - 2 weeks, and they often end with a decline in the equity market [21][26] - **Current stage of redemption**: The market is in the negative feedback stage of the redemption wave, with the intensity similar to that in February 2025. Although the redemption pressure shows signs of relief, there is still a risk of recurrence, and the 10y Treasury bond yield may have an additional 4 - 8BP adjustment space [34][35] 2. Has the central bank's attitude changed? - The short - term amplification of capital friction during the bond market's weak adjustment does not necessarily mean a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's current liquidity injection is mainly short - term, and in the third quarter, factors such as fiscal policies, equity market diversion, and redemption frictions have increased capital disturbances. However, the central bank's current operations still show a relatively mild monetary policy stance [3][56] 3. From August to October, the bond market trading enters the "hard mode" - Seasonally, from August to October, bond market disturbances increase, and yields tend to rise. This year, due to the central bank's tightening of funds in the first quarter and the forward - shifting of market trading, the 10y Treasury bond yield has adjusted ahead of the seasonal pattern. After August, the bond market still faces uncertainties such as tariff negotiations and policy effect verification [59][61] - In reality, the fundamental data shows a "weak recovery" pattern, and there is no signal of a trend reversal, which provides some support for the bond market's upward movement [63] 4. Bond market strategy: Shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading - Maintain the view of a volatile bond market in the second half of the year. The 10y Treasury bond above 1.75% has allocation value, and the 30y Treasury bond has allocation value when the 30 - 10y spread is around 25bp. Trading desks should avoid large - scale left - hand trading [70][71] - From August to October, the market will be volatile, increasing the demand for liquidity. It is necessary to shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading and reduce positions in illiquid assets that have realized profits during favorable market windows [72][75] - Short - term products such as certificates of deposit have allocation value when the central bank's attitude is stable. Certificates of deposit above 1.65% and credit products after adjustment may be considered for allocation [78] 5. Review of the interest - rate bond market: Institutional redemption sentiment resurfaces, and the bond market is significantly pressured - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has a small - scale net injection, and the funding situation is tight first and then loose [12] - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has decreased, while that of local government bonds has increased [94] - **Benchmark changes**: The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have widened [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The expectation of monetary easing in the bond market may continue to play out, and June may be a good window for layout in the second half of the year. The market can take advantage of the potential positive expectations brought by the possible restart of the central bank's bond - buying and the compression of credit spreads before the seasonal entry of wealth management funds in July [19]. Summary by Directory I. Review of Speeches by the Central Bank Governor at the Lujiazui Forum - From 2019 - 2020, the conferences focused on Shanghai's "Five Centers" positioning, including the construction of a RMB asset allocation center, a RMB financial asset risk management center, a financial opening - up center, a demonstration center for a high - quality business environment, and a financial technology center [11]. - From 2021 - 2023, the topics shifted to green finance and inclusive finance, echoing the "Dual Carbon" goals and support for small and micro entities. Specific measures included using structural monetary policy tools to promote the green transformation of the economy and guiding banks to increase support for first - time loans and credit loans to small and micro enterprises [11]. - In 2024, the topic focused on the reform of the monetary policy framework, with five major directions proposed, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy from a parallel quantity - based and price - based regulation to a price - based regulation dominated by interest rates [11]. - In 2025, the speech revolved around global financial governance, covering four aspects: the international monetary system, cross - border payment system, global financial stability system, and international financial organization governance. The weak supervision of non - bank intermediary institutions was emphasized [12]. II. Yield Performance after Historical Lujiazui Forums - The impact of the central bank governor's statements at the Lujiazui Forum on the bond market is relatively limited, and the yield trend often continues the previous situation. The yield change within 30 trading days after the conference is mostly within 10bp, except in 2020 and 2021 [15]. - The probability of yield decline is relatively high, but the trading mainline has limited correlation with the conference content. In 2020, the yield was in an upward adjustment window due to the shift of monetary policy to neutral and the acceleration of government bond issuance. In 2019, 2021, and 2023, the yield declined under the drive of monetary easing. In 2024, the yield was in a narrow - range oscillation [15]. III. Bond Market Strategy: Loose Trading Continues, Seize Layout Opportunities - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Maintain narrow fluctuations. When the market approaches 1.62%, it is recommended to take partial profits. The bond market is expected to trade within a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.7% [20]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: There may still be a compression space of 5 - 10bp. Considering factors such as increased supply and a slower bond - buying rhythm this year, the downward range of the short - end may be further reduced [23]. - **Certificates of Deposit**: With loose funds, they are waiting for the drive of wealth management funds in July. The reasonable pricing level is around 1.6% - 1.7%, and it may continue to repair towards 1.6% [28]. - **Credit Bonds**: Pay attention to the opportunities of credit sinking within 3 years and a slight compression of the spread for 4 - 5 - year bonds. There may be a catch - up opportunity for credit bonds within 3 years, and the 4 - 5 - year credit spread has relatively sufficient odds compared to the 2024 low [29].