1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect has generally strengthened since 2025, but there are periods of weakening. The restoration of the stock - bond seesaw effect requires the continuous strengthening of the pricing factors of stocks or bonds. The market trends of the stock and bond markets have their own dominant factors, and the stock - bond seesaw is not the only pricing factor for bonds [3][43][46]. - The bond market strategy is to hold bonds during the holiday and appropriately increase the account's income elasticity. The report is optimistic about the future market and suggests starting to prepare for the whole - year trading market, shifting from a configuration - oriented to a trading - oriented approach [48][52]. - In the first week of February, the bond market strengthened with oscillations due to the weakening of the equity market and the central bank's support. The 30 - 10y spread of treasury bonds has compression potential, and there are opportunities in long - term credit bonds [7][72][77]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock - Bond Seesaw "Failure" Re - discussion - **Overall Strengthening of the Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect in 2025**: The strengthening is mainly due to the significant boost in market risk appetite by the strong performance of the equity market and the significant widening of the stock - bond price ratio. For example, from September 2024 to October 2025, the share of open - ended bond funds decreased by 3.18%, while that of open - ended stock funds increased by 22.92%. As of February 2026, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan [10][14][15]. - **Weakening of the Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect in Some Windows**: There are two situations: stock - bond co - rising and stock - bond co - falling. Stock - bond co - rising occurs when the bond market has clear bullish factors (mostly related to easing expectations), and the yield is in a downward channel. Stock - bond co - falling is mostly related to the redemption of "fixed - income +" products. For example, in November 2025 and February 2026, the redemption of "fixed - income +" products led to an increase in bond yields [22][32]. - **End of the Stock - Bond Seesaw "Failure"**: The restoration of the stock - bond seesaw effect is driven by different factors, such as the "anti - involution" logic in July 2025 leading to the bond market following the adjustment, and the early "spring rally" in the equity market and the cooling of the bond market's easing expectations in late December 2025 - early January 2026 [41]. - **Summary**: The "failure" of the stock - bond seesaw is more common after the bond market's cost - performance returns. To restore the seesaw effect, the pricing factors of stocks or bonds need to be continuously strengthened. The subsequent trend of the "failure" during the "fixed - income +" redemption stage after the stock market decline needs to be observed [43][46]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - **Under - expected Bond Market Gains after the Decline in Risk Appetite**: The bond market gains were under - expected due to the redemption of "fixed - income +" funds and the lack of a clear trading theme in the short - term bond market [48]. - **Optimistic Outlook for the Future Market**: The central bank's pre - holiday capital injection is relatively active, and the capital fluctuation pressure is controllable. However, the institutions' cross - holiday capital arrangements are relatively late, and short - term frictions in the last week need attention. The power of allocation - type funds is relatively strong, and the pricing influence of the equity market on bonds is weakened. The bond market yield is still in the cost - performance range [52][61][66]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to layout convex - type varieties, conduct spread mining according to the convex points. Focus on 5y China Development Bank bonds in the short - term, 8y Export - Import Bank of China bonds and 10y local government bonds in the medium - term. Insurance funds can configure long - term local government bonds at high yield fluctuations. It is recommended to hold bonds during the holiday and appropriately increase the account's elasticity, and layout long - term offensive varieties with good liquidity [69][72]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review - **Market Performance**: In the first week of February, the equity market was weak, and the bond market strengthened with oscillations. The 10y treasury bond yield was blocked at 1.80% multiple times, and the 30y treasury bond led the rise, driving the compression of the 30 - 10y spread. The 1y treasury bond active bond yield rose 2BP to 1.3100%, the 10y treasury bond active bond yield fell 0.8BP to 1.8020%, and the 30y treasury bond yield fell 3.45BP to 2.2255% [7]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's net withdrawal of funds was 656 billion yuan this week, and the funding situation was generally loose. The 1y inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance price of national joint - stock banks fell to 1.58%, and the weighted price of DR007 fell to 1.4613% [8]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of policy - financial bonds decreased, while the net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [92]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds rose 2.08BP, and the long - end yields fell 0.1BP. The short - end yields of China Development Bank bonds fell 1.32BP, and the long - end yields fell 2.2BP [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [N/A] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 5, 2026, the 30y Treasury bond model's single - day output probability was 10.57%, MA5 was 39.29%, and the model's view changed from oscillating to bullish, the first MA5 bullish signal since the model output an adjustment signal on October 30, 2025. The high yield of the new 30y Treasury bond might affect the model [4][7] - The 3 - year AAA medium - short note model remained bullish, with the bullish signal lasting for 43 trading days since December 8, 2025 [4][7] - On February 4, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond model's MA5 changed from oscillating to bullish, ending the oscillating adjustment period since December 2025. A factor of large banks' buying and selling of 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds was added [4][7] - The 2 - year Treasury bond model fluctuated greatly recently. On February 4, 2026, it showed a single - day output probability turning bullish, and MA5 entered the oscillating range [4][7] - The gold model has been giving bullish signals since October 29, 2025. It entered the oscillating adjustment range on January 28, 2026, and is currently on the edge of the oscillating adjustment range [4][8] - The crude oil model has been generally bullish recently. The retracement on February 2, 2026, led to a marginal decline in the model's output probability, but it remains in the bullish range [4][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1 Model Recent New Results Display - 30y Treasury bond model: On February 5, 2026, single - day output probability 10.57%, MA5 39.29%, changed from oscillating to bullish [7] - 3 - year AAA medium - short note model: Remained bullish, bullish signal for 43 trading days since December 8, 2025 [7] - 10 - year Treasury bond model: MA5 changed from oscillating to bullish on February 4, 2026, ending the oscillating adjustment since December 2025 [7] - 2 - year Treasury bond model: Fluctuated greatly, single - day output probability turned bullish on February 4, 2026, MA5 entered the oscillating range [7] - Gold model: Bullish since October 29, 2025, entered oscillating adjustment on January 28, 2026, currently on the edge of oscillating adjustment [8] - Crude oil model: Generally bullish, retracement on February 2, 2026, led to a marginal decline in output probability, still in bullish range [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the bond market dynamics and the implications for various financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply and Demand Pressure**: The supply-demand structure for bonds is under pressure, with local government bond issuance at historical highs and major banks nearing their issuance limits. This situation raises concerns about potential supply-demand gaps [1][2][5]. 2. **Long-term Bond Selling**: Funds have been continuously selling long-term bonds, with a net sell-off of approximately 60 billion, bringing the duration of medium to long-term interest rate bonds back to levels seen in early April [1][3][4]. 3. **Projected Financing Needs**: For the upcoming year, the net financing volume is expected to increase to between 6.76 trillion and 6.8 trillion, indicating a significant rise in overall financing needs [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Sector Adjustments**: The insurance sector is expected to see a decrease in demand for ultra-long-term bonds by about 200 billion due to a shift towards higher dividend insurance products in a low-interest-rate environment [1][6][7]. 5. **Banking Sector Trends**: If banks maintain their current bond purchase ratios, their share in the market may decrease by approximately 100 billion [1][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility**: The bond market is anticipated to experience volatility, particularly in the long-term segment, as the demand from funds and insurance companies is expected to weaken [1][3][6]. 2. **Credit Bond Market Performance**: The credit bond market has shown a lackluster performance, with credit spreads widening as funds continue to favor short-term credit bonds [3][12][13]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations for investment strategies include waiting for favorable conditions before making significant investments in long-term bonds and focusing on short to medium-term bonds for better liquidity and stability [11][16]. 4. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: Regulatory adjustments, such as changes in fund sales fees and customized fund regulations, are expected to influence demand for bonds with maturities of 4-5 years, potentially increasing volatility [15][16]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that the supply-demand gap could reach approximately 700 billion, necessitating measures such as relaxing central bank liquidity indicators to alleviate pressure [8][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the fixed income market and its participants.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under significant pressure due to increased institutional redemptions, with the 10y Treasury bond yield fluctuating. The current redemption is a small - scale wave driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the central bank maintains a relatively mild monetary policy stance. The bond market will enter a "hard mode" from August to October, and investment strategies should shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading [11][3][59] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How will the stock - bond seesaw driven by risk preference play out? - **Judgment on the current redemption level**: Bank wealth management has a safety cushion, and the focus is on the redemption pressure of funds. Since the beginning of the year, the safety cushion of wealth management has stabilized the net value, and it has maintained net buying of bonds. The current redemption is concentrated in the fund sector, with obvious preventive redemptions by institutional investors [15][18] - **Review of bond market redemptions driven by the stock - bond seesaw effect**: Since 2022, there have been eight rounds of redemptions, with only the one in November 2022 being a large - scale one involving both funds and bank wealth management. The rest are small - scale ones mainly affecting funds. Redemption periods usually last 1 - 2 weeks, and they often end with a decline in the equity market [21][26] - **Current stage of redemption**: The market is in the negative feedback stage of the redemption wave, with the intensity similar to that in February 2025. Although the redemption pressure shows signs of relief, there is still a risk of recurrence, and the 10y Treasury bond yield may have an additional 4 - 8BP adjustment space [34][35] 2. Has the central bank's attitude changed? - The short - term amplification of capital friction during the bond market's weak adjustment does not necessarily mean a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's current liquidity injection is mainly short - term, and in the third quarter, factors such as fiscal policies, equity market diversion, and redemption frictions have increased capital disturbances. However, the central bank's current operations still show a relatively mild monetary policy stance [3][56] 3. From August to October, the bond market trading enters the "hard mode" - Seasonally, from August to October, bond market disturbances increase, and yields tend to rise. This year, due to the central bank's tightening of funds in the first quarter and the forward - shifting of market trading, the 10y Treasury bond yield has adjusted ahead of the seasonal pattern. After August, the bond market still faces uncertainties such as tariff negotiations and policy effect verification [59][61] - In reality, the fundamental data shows a "weak recovery" pattern, and there is no signal of a trend reversal, which provides some support for the bond market's upward movement [63] 4. Bond market strategy: Shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading - Maintain the view of a volatile bond market in the second half of the year. The 10y Treasury bond above 1.75% has allocation value, and the 30y Treasury bond has allocation value when the 30 - 10y spread is around 25bp. Trading desks should avoid large - scale left - hand trading [70][71] - From August to October, the market will be volatile, increasing the demand for liquidity. It is necessary to shift from alpha - mining to beta - trading and reduce positions in illiquid assets that have realized profits during favorable market windows [72][75] - Short - term products such as certificates of deposit have allocation value when the central bank's attitude is stable. Certificates of deposit above 1.65% and credit products after adjustment may be considered for allocation [78] 5. Review of the interest - rate bond market: Institutional redemption sentiment resurfaces, and the bond market is significantly pressured - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has a small - scale net injection, and the funding situation is tight first and then loose [12] - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has decreased, while that of local government bonds has increased [94] - **Benchmark changes**: The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have widened [88]