Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On July 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.64% to 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.56% to 9,393 yuan/kilogram [4]. - In the short - term, although market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff suspension period in early August and the continued pressure on Powell, gold is expected to return to the safe - haven logic, but the price increase may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the postponed Fed rate - cut expectation to September. Gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, the commodity rally benefits its industrial properties, so it is bullish in the short - term, but the mid - term fundamentals need attention due to potential weakening demand [4]. - In the long - term, given the ongoing trade war, the possibility of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization with continued central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Price**: On July 22, compared with July 21, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3,384.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.5% to $38.86/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.7% to $3,397.50/ounce, COMEX silver rose 1.6% to $39.20/ounce, AU2508 rose 0.4% to 782.50 yuan/gram, AG2508 rose 1.3% to 9,366 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.4% to 780.55 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 1.4% to 9,357 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Difference and Ratio**: From July 21 to July 22, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 2.02 yuan/gram to - 1.95 yuan/gram with a - 3.5% change; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 14 yuan/kilogram to - 9 yuan/kilogram with a - 35.7% change; other price differences and ratios also had corresponding changes [3]. Position Data - As of July 21 (compared with July 18), gold ETF - SPDR increased 0.36% to 947.06 tons, silver ETF - SLV increased 2.37% to 15,005.78624 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 3.26% to 270,227, non - commercial short positions decreased 2.73% to 57,112, and non - commercial net long positions increased 5.00% to 213,115. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased 5.25% to 85,022, non - commercial short positions increased 14.90% to 25,574, and non - commercial net long positions increased 1.58% to 59,448 [3]. Inventory Data - On July 22, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 28,857 kilograms compared with July 21, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.45% to 1,199,046 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 37,192,143 ounces from July 18 to July 21, and COMEX silver inventory increased 0.08% to 497,645,563 ounces from July 18 to July 21 [3]. Related Market Data - From July 21 to July 22, the US dollar index decreased 0.09%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.64%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.77%, VIX decreased 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased 0.14%, NYMEX crude oil decreased 0.38%, and the US dollar/yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [4]. Important News - A US Republican congresswoman has sent a letter to the US Department of Justice to charge Fed Chairman Powell [4]. - Russian President Putin will visit China in September [4]. - The next round of US - China talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]