科技七巨头全军失守，这并非单个公司的错，它更像是一只老鼠被猫惊到，市场在寻找下一个"安全港"，结果金银上演了逃命的逆袭，现货黄金突破5220美 元/盎司，白银大涨4%，这是资金的本能，股票下跌，贵金属上位——避险逻辑再简单却又复杂到让人无所适从； 中概股也没有幸免，世纪互联跌超7%，爱奇艺大跌5%，阿里巴巴跌超2%，这些数字告诉我们一件事，中国概念股在海外市场的脆弱性依然存在，宏观流动 性、监管预期、估值修正交织，任何一根导火索都可能引发连锁反应； 对中国投资者而言，这样的美股暴跌提醒了两点，一是海外市场的风险并非遥远的新闻，它会在你我账户上留下痕迹，二是资产配置不能只看过去的溢价收 益，要看承受风险的能力和时间窗口，换句话说，别拿短期的高收益去冒长期的风险； | 贵金属 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 5226.630 | 91.800 | 5241.1 | | +45.530 +0.88% | +3.526 +3.99% | +46.9 +0.90% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE更全 | SHFE自银 | | 91.9 ...

Global Asset Performance - The global market has shifted from policy pricing to risk pricing, with geopolitical factors becoming the main source of short-term volatility [5][6] - Domestic policies continue to focus on stable growth, with the LPR remaining unchanged and a commitment to more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [5][6] - Strong consumer data shows a year-on-year increase of 13.7% in consumption during the Spring Festival, indicating resilience in domestic demand [5] Commodity Market Precious Metals - International gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising from $4,659.29 per ounce at the beginning of the month to $5,278.26 per ounce by February 28, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar [11][12] - The decline in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by 29 basis points to 3.97% has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its price [11][12] - The structural support for gold prices remains intact due to ongoing central bank purchases and the weakening of the dollar's credit [12] Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices increased from $71.49 per barrel to $72.84 per barrel, primarily driven by geopolitical risk premiums following military actions in the Middle East [14][15] - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, and any disruption could significantly impact prices [14][15] - Despite geopolitical tensions, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels, indicating supply-side pressures that could limit price increases [15] Bond Market U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 10-year yield down 11 basis points to 3.97%, driven by heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [17][21] - The decline in yields is also influenced by uncertainty surrounding trade policies and inflation expectations, which have increased market volatility [17][21] - Short-term yields are more sensitive to monetary policy expectations, while long-term yields are influenced by inflation and fiscal dynamics [21][25] Chinese Bond Yields - Chinese bond yields also decreased, with the 10-year yield falling below 1.80%, supported by a stable liquidity environment and expectations of a lower interest rate framework [24][25] - The demand for medium to long-term bonds has increased due to a slow economic recovery and heightened volatility in equity markets [24][25] Foreign Exchange Market U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index weakened, closing at 97.64, primarily due to policy expectations and uncertainties affecting its valuation [30][31] - The dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset has diminished, with funds flowing more into gold and U.S. Treasuries amid geopolitical tensions [30][31] Non-U.S. Currencies - The euro showed slight strength against the dollar, closing at 1.1815, supported by stable monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone [36] - The Japanese yen experienced fluctuations, closing at 156.09, influenced by trade policy uncertainties and Japan's cautious monetary stance [36] Equity Market - Global equity markets displayed significant divergence, with U.S. stocks declining while non-U.S. markets performed relatively well [41][42] - U.S. stock indices fell due to concerns over AI's impact on corporate earnings and rising trade policy uncertainties, particularly affecting technology and financial sectors [41][42] - In contrast, Asian markets, including Japan and A-shares, benefited from improved risk sentiment and a favorable liquidity environment [41][42]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

在这样的背景下，很多投资者会产生一个直观判断：风险来了，黄金是不是又要大涨？甚至有人直接下结论，黄金可能进入新一轮快速上涨阶段。但阿萨交 易学院认为，如果你正在进行黄金交易入门学习，这种情绪化推断恰恰需要被拆解。黄金的走势从来不是单一事件推动，而是多重宏观变量共同作用的结 果。 一、关税冲击下，黄金上涨的底层逻辑是什么？ 2026 年 2 月，10% 全球关税已经正式生效，并且还预留了 150 天窗口期，未来是否上调至 15% 仍然存在悬念。政策路径的变化、谈判节奏的暂停、企业决 策的观望，都让市场的不确定性明显上升。 在黄金交易入门学习阶段，首先要理解黄金受哪些宏观变量（美元、利率、避险情绪）影响。其次永远不要重仓押注，尤其是在带有杠杆的现货交易中。最 后，预设止损与止盈，不被新闻标题带节奏。 全球关税正式落地，影响的不只是贸易成本，而是市场对未来经济路径的判断。当政策方向存在反复空间，全球增长预期可能受到压制。在这种环境下，资 金往往倾向于降低风险敞口，增加防御性资产配置。 黄金在这里扮演的角色，是信用对冲工具。它不依赖企业盈利，不隶属于任何单一国家信用体系。但需要强调的是，黄金的上涨逻辑并不等同于"风险 ...

周二（2月24日）市场并未等来关税政策的缓和，反而迎来了更高税率、更大不确定性的政策环境。截 至昨日，已有数百家企业提起诉讼，要求退还此前支付的巨额关税款项；欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席 贝恩德·朗格则宣布，暂停批准欧盟与美国贸易协议的相关工作，推迟原定于24日的投票。贸易摩擦的 再度升级，成为推动昨日金价大涨的核心动能。 毕竟，当前市场的避险逻辑远未终结。除了关税问题持续发酵，美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突风险正以前 所未有的速度攀升。双方的强硬姿态，让波斯湾上空战争的阴云愈发浓重。多名分析师警告，一旦擦枪 走火事件发生，黄金将迎来新一轮的暴涨行情。在这种背景下，任何短期回调都可能被视作重新上车的 机会。 从技术上来看，虽然目前黄金的技术走势预期不占优，但还是不能完全放弃此参考，而去盲从基本面消 息，毕竟基本面属实难以预判追踪。日内黄金暂时还是看震荡消化，在今日早间下跌调整后，市场情绪 也理应有所冷静，日内行情修整的概率也会变大，日内上方可着重关注5200-20一带压力，下方则着重 关注昨日回撤低点5130-20一带争夺。若以日线结构趋势来看，下方5日线5100附近则更需要重视，一旦 此位失守，则将宣告基本面或消停 ...

近期，美国政坛围绕美联储主席人选的分歧持续发酵。财政部长贝森特在闭门会议中提出，将针对现任主席 的调查权限由司法部转交参议院银行委员会，以此尝试打破共和党内部的僵局。参议员 Tillis 此前明确表态， 只要调查不撤销，就不会支持任何美联储人事任命。 如今"调和方案"浮出水面，市场开始思考一个更现实的问题：如果政治风险缓和，黄金的避险逻辑是否会被 削弱？阿萨交易学社认为：对于正在进行外汇交易入门学习的投资者而言，这类事件并不只是政治新闻，而 是影响美元、利率预期和黄金价格的重要变量。理解宏观逻辑，比单纯盯着价格涨跌更重要。 一、从"政治冲突"到"风险缓和"的市场定价逻辑 黄金的短期波动往往围绕利率预期与风险情绪展开。此前，美联储主席更替的博弈叠加司法调查争议，使市 场担心政策独立性受到影响。 此前因政治不确定性而产生的宽松预期溢价，可能被修正。在这种情况下，美债收益率回升、美元走强，都 会对金价形成压力。 对于进行外汇交易入门学习的新手来说，这种逻辑同样适用于美元指数和主要货币对的判断：利率预期稳 定，美元通常受益；利率不确定性上升，美元波动加大，黄金往往获得阶段性支撑。 三、黄金优势与短期波动的博弈逻辑 即 ...

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今早一睁眼，金价又给市场扔了颗炸弹——现货黄金冲破5190美元，再创历史 新高！我相信，此刻很多人的心里是冰火两重天：一边是看着K线直冲云霄的兴奋，另一边却是"现在 还能不能追"的深深犹豫，甚至是一"股"未持的空虚。别急，今天我们不聊玄乎的"避险"和"通胀"，我 带你用二十年观察市场的经验，穿透这惊人的价格，看清背后正在发生的、更惊人的 "三重背离" 。看 懂了它，你就看懂了当下最真实的资本焦虑。 第一重背离，是金价与市场情绪的"温差"。 价格在狂热创新高，但你真的感觉到普遍的赚钱喜悦了 吗？好像并没有。这种"新高下的冷静"，甚至是一点"恐惧"，本身就是一个强烈信号。它说明推动金价 的力量，已经不是散户追涨的热情，而是一股更深沉、更坚决的"巨流"。这让我想起2011年，金价见顶 前那种街头巷尾皆谈黄金的狂热，与眼下形成鲜明对比。现在的买盘，更像是一种"沉默的共识"，是机 构和大资金在对未来进行"保险式"投票。你觉得，是全民狂欢危险，还是这种"沉默的抢购"更值得警 惕？ 第二重背离，是金价与"传统避险逻辑"的脱钩。 过去我们说"乱世买黄金"，但你看现在，地缘冲突是 旧闻，美股还在创新高，那 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historic high of $5111 (approximately 1150 domestically) during the Asian market session on January 27, with silver also showing strong performance, peaking at $111 (approximately 28 domestically) before climbing to $17.7 (approximately 30 domestically) [1] - Silver has seen a tenfold increase from its lowest point of $11.6 over the past decade, indicating significant market momentum [1] - Following a shift in President Trump's stance on Iran, gold and silver prices experienced a rapid decline, with silver dropping sharply to around $16.5 and hitting a low near $101.2 [1] Group 2 - Trump's decision to raise South Korea's tariff rate from 15% to 25% reflects ongoing trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions, which are undermining global trade and growth confidence [2] - The probability of a government shutdown in the U.S. is estimated to be as high as 80%, exacerbating uncertainty in policy and economic outlook [2] - The Tanzanian central bank's plan to sell part of its gold reserves, although limited in scale, may indicate a potential divergence in central bank behavior at high gold prices, warranting further observation [2] Group 3 - The gold market has been experiencing significant volatility, with prices soaring nearly $400 last week, but recent trading has shown signs of a potential top as both bulls and bears engage in intense competition [3] - Technical analysis suggests that maintaining gold prices above $5000-$4990 (approximately 1122-1125 domestically) is crucial for a bullish outlook, with key resistance levels at $5100, $5150, and $5200 [3] - A break below the $4990-$5000 range could indicate that the $5111 high has become a short-term peak, potentially leading to larger-scale adjustments [3] Group 4 - The silver market has also been highly volatile, with prices reaching over $117 (approximately 30,000 domestically), marking a significant achievement for the target price of $100 [4] - Following a strong surge, silver prices experienced a sharp decline, indicating a potential topping pattern, with key support levels between $100-$103 [4] - Investors are advised to monitor market dynamics closely and manage risks effectively, as the silver market is expected to undergo significant corrections [4]

格陵兰当地时间周四(1月22日)的新闻发布会上，首相延斯-弗雷德里克.尼尔森表示，他对美国总统特朗 普前一天与北约领导人会面后宣布的"框架"协议内容并不知情。尼尔森强调，任何涉及格陵兰岛的协议 都必须让该岛及其所属王国丹麦拥有发言权。格陵兰主权争议的最新进展对黄金市场的影响主要体现为 强化其避险逻辑。 周五(1月23日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格延续涨势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4950.12美元/盎司，上涨 0.31%，最高触及4966.49美元/盎司，最低下探4930.27美元/盎司。地缘政治不确定性叠加市场对美联储 政策独立性的担忧，持续推升黄金配置需求。尽管部分政治风险出现缓和迹象，但在降息预期与央行持 续买入背景下，黄金中长期多头结构仍保持稳固，且多头情绪进一步释放。 美国11月核心PCE物价指数符合预期。美国1月17日当周初请失业金人数20万人，预期21万人。最新美 国个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数显示，11月和10月消费者支出均增长0.5%，通胀温和上涨至同比2.8%， 这虽凸显经济韧性，但也强化了美联储按兵不动的短期预期，却为中长期宽松铺平道路。 近期，围绕委内瑞拉、伊朗以及格陵兰相关问题的紧张局势 ...