根据香港第一金官网报道：美国国会大厦的时钟正指向9月30日午夜，联邦资金即将断流，全球市场屏 息以待。 01 停摆倒计时：美国政府的"关门"危机 美国政府关门的根源，源于国会预算机制的结构性刚性：每年9月30日前，两党须敲定12项拨款法案， 方能确保联邦资金连续性。 一旦失败，非核心部门如国家公园和行政审核将立即暂停，约80万联邦雇员面临无薪状态。 美国联邦政府再度面临"关门"风险，这场政治博弈的根源可追溯到1974年《预算和截留控制法案》，该 法案强化了国会对预算的主导权，但也导致府院博弈常态化。 当前，民主党推动增加1.5万亿美元民生支出，共和党则主张简化延续决议，避免额外负担。 特朗普本周与两党领袖的会晤，本该是化解关键，却因民主党医疗保健需求的坚持而陷入胶着。 02 经济影响：数据黑洞与GDP拖累 若政府关门成为现实，美国经济将面临直接而明确的冲击。德银估计，一次全面的政府关门可能导致80 万联邦雇员休假，这将使季度年化实际GDP增长每周减少约0.2个百分点。 市场和美联储还将面临就业和CPI报告等关键经济数据的延迟发布。 美国经济分析局（BEA）和劳工统计局（BLS）的雇员可能被强制休假，导致就业报 ...

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On July 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.64% to 784.84 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.56% to 9,393 yuan/kilogram [4]. - In the short - term, although market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff suspension period in early August and the continued pressure on Powell, gold is expected to return to the safe - haven logic, but the price increase may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the postponed Fed rate - cut expectation to September. Gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, the commodity rally benefits its industrial properties, so it is bullish in the short - term, but the mid - term fundamentals need attention due to potential weakening demand [4]. - In the long - term, given the ongoing trade war, the possibility of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization with continued central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Price**: On July 22, compared with July 21, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3,384.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.5% to $38.86/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.7% to $3,397.50/ounce, COMEX silver rose 1.6% to $39.20/ounce, AU2508 rose 0.4% to 782.50 yuan/gram, AG2508 rose 1.3% to 9,366 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.4% to 780.55 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 1.4% to 9,357 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Difference and Ratio**: From July 21 to July 22, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 2.02 yuan/gram to - 1.95 yuan/gram with a - 3.5% change; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 14 yuan/kilogram to - 9 yuan/kilogram with a - 35.7% change; other price differences and ratios also had corresponding changes [3]. Position Data - As of July 21 (compared with July 18), gold ETF - SPDR increased 0.36% to 947.06 tons, silver ETF - SLV increased 2.37% to 15,005.78624 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 3.26% to 270,227, non - commercial short positions decreased 2.73% to 57,112, and non - commercial net long positions increased 5.00% to 213,115. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased 5.25% to 85,022, non - commercial short positions increased 14.90% to 25,574, and non - commercial net long positions increased 1.58% to 59,448 [3]. Inventory Data - On July 22, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 28,857 kilograms compared with July 21, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.45% to 1,199,046 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 37,192,143 ounces from July 18 to July 21, and COMEX silver inventory increased 0.08% to 497,645,563 ounces from July 18 to July 21 [3]. Related Market Data - From July 21 to July 22, the US dollar index decreased 0.09%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.64%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.77%, VIX decreased 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased 0.14%, NYMEX crude oil decreased 0.38%, and the US dollar/yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [4]. Important News - A US Republican congresswoman has sent a letter to the US Department of Justice to charge Fed Chairman Powell [4]. - Russian President Putin will visit China in September [4]. - The next round of US - China talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]