Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a slight decrease observed on August 4, 2023, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [1]. LME Aluminum Futures Overview - On August 4, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2570.5 per ton and are currently at $2568.5 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.12%. The intraday high reached $2574 per ton, while the low was $2559 per ton [1]. - On August 1, 2023, LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $2565.0, a high of $2576.0, a low of $2543.0, and a closing price of $2569.5, showing a change of 0.18% [1]. Aluminum Market Updates - As of August 1, 2023, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 449,300 tons, with 13,500 tons canceled, a reduction of 525 tons. The total aluminum inventory increased by 1,775 tons to reach 462,800 tons [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.99 on August 1, 2023, with an import loss of 1,408.38 yuan per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of 1,448.75 yuan per ton [1]. - On August 1, 2023, aluminum futures warehouse receipts amounted to 48,658 tons, which is a decrease of 511 tons compared to the previous trading day [1].

Group 1 - The LME aluminum futures prices showed a slight upward trend, opening at $2607.5 per ton and currently trading at $2610.5 per ton, with a gain of 0.17% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2611.5 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2605.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On July 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2634.0, with a closing price of $2607.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.89% [2] - The registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 441,600 tons, with 14,500 tons canceled, resulting in a net decrease of 475 tons; total aluminum inventory increased by 1,825 tons to 456,100 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 53,074 tons, a decrease of 524 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.89, with an import loss of 1,577.29 yuan per ton, improving from a loss of 1,664.71 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary Core View - Aluminum prices closed at 20,465 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 0.12%. Market factors were intertwined, with the Fed on hold and Powell expecting inflation pressure in the coming months [4] Content Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell this week, but the center of gravity still moved up [11] - The spread between Shanghai aluminum contracts 07 - 08 weakened week-on-week; the LME aluminum 0 - 3M premium strengthened week-on-week [12] - With low inventory, the spot premium of aluminum ingots remained stable [17] 02 Fundamental Data - Aluminum ore port inventory decreased [20][23] - The alumina monthly spread showed a back structure [27] - The production profit of domestic alumina slightly decreased but remained acceptable. The weekly output of domestic alumina slightly decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the output of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 0.3 tons week-on-week to 171.5 tons, and the inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 384 tons [31][36][43] - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased but with limited amplitude. This week, the output of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.08 tons week-on-week to 84.47 tons [47][51] - Aluminum imports were at a loss [53] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decrease week-on-week, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased week-on-week. LME aluminum inventory continued to decrease [57][60] - Due to the off-season, the overall starting rate of aluminum products continued to decline this week and may continue to decline next week [64][70] - Last week, the new home sales in 10 key cities increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, while second-hand home sales increased both month-on-month and year-on-year [74][75] - The production plan of household air conditioners in June was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [79] - The production plan of refrigerators in June was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [82] - The production plan of washing machines in June was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual figure of the same period last year [83] - From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year-on-year [85] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum futures [5] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the traditional off - season is approaching, the rush for exports may be near the end, the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the aluminum price is under pressure. Without other positive factors, it's difficult for the aluminum price to rise further. Attention should be paid to social inventory changes and overseas interference [3] - For alumina, the spot price follows the strong trend of the futures market. The futures price has risen due to disturbances at the Guinea ore end. Although the bauxite imports increased significantly from January to April and there may be no supply gap even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,110 yuan/ton, and its spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,125 yuan/ton, closed at 20,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 199,900 lots, an increase of 63,926 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 201,358 lots, a decrease of 2,699 lots [1] Alumina Spot and Futures - On May 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - On May 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,938 yuan/ton, closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan/ton (6.25%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 2,886,512 lots, an increase of 1,465,036 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 310,945 lots, a decrease of 32,504 lots [2] Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 585,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] Market Transactions - On May 19, 2025, 2,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Henan at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,000 yuan/ton. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina spot at a delivered price between 3,400 - 3,470 yuan/ton. 10,000 tons of alumina spot were traded in Shanxi at a cash - on - delivery ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan/ton [3]