Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, opening at $2802.5 per ton and currently at $2806.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.74% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2810 per ton, while the lowest was $2800.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 21, LME aluminum futures opened at $2803.0, peaked at $2812.0, and closed at $2808.0, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% [2] - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 69,283 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 490,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 57,275 tons, a reduction of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 548,000 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.63, with an import loss of -1,797.86 yuan per ton, compared to -1,760.26 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, opening at $2880.5 per ton and currently at $2883.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.45% [1] - On November 13, LME aluminum futures opened at $2883.0, reached a high of $2911.5, a low of $2873.0, and closed at $2877.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.31% [2] - As of November 13, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 521,525 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,675 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 9,125 tons to 553,200 tons [2] Group 2 - On November 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 64,742 tons, an increase of 924 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,002.18 yuan per ton, improving from -2,149.66 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint of the Report The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as inventory decline and the opening of export windows. It is recommended to adopt a long - position trading strategy [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63% and an amplitude of 1.97%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,720 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US private data shows a negative non - farm payroll in October, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, and smelter profits have shrunk. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. Demand - side traditional peak - season effects are weak, and downstream demand recovery is insufficient. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates a strong long - position atmosphere [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position trading strategy [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price and Ratio**: The Shanghai zinc futures price rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the Shanghai zinc closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.63% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the London zinc closing price was 3,051 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton or 0.21% from October 31 [8] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: The top 20 net positions in Shanghai zinc increased. As of November 7, 2025, the top 20 net positions were 16,709 lots, an increase of 6,792 lots from October 31. The open interest was 226,883 lots, an increase of 15,774 lots or 7.47% from October 31 [11] - **Price Spreads**: The zinc - aluminum price spread remained stable, and the zinc - lead price spread rebounded. As of November 7, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from October 31. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from October 31 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: The domestic spot premium rebounded, and the LME zinc premium was at a high level. As of November 7, 2025, the 0 zinc ingot spot price was 22,650 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton or 1.48% from October 31. The spot discount was 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 104.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.73 US dollars/ton from October 30 [22] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or 2.29% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, a decrease of 3,208 tons or 3.1% from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 161,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons or 0.98% from October 30 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: Zinc ore production and imports increased. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In September 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 505,394.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.61% and a year - on - year increase of 25.18% [31] - **Supply Side**: - **Global Supply Shortage**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc supply was in shortage. In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, an increase of 94,600 tons or 8.35% year - on - year. Consumption was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 1,400 tons or 0.12% year - on - year. There was a surplus of 47,900 tons, compared with a deficit of 45,300 tons in the same period last year [36] - **High Production**: In September 2025, China's zinc production was 625,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 5.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [40] - **Export Window Open**: In September 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 22,677.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.05%. The export volume was 2,477.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 158.25% [43] - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to September 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. In September 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 37,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.69%. The export volume was 361,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.29% [46][47] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.96%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.229864 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 988.438 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [52][53] - **Infrastructure**: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27 from the previous month and an increase of 0.47 from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year [58] - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 80.3523 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In September 2025, air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 216.5707 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [60] - **Automobiles**: In September 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,226,375 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The production volume was 3,275,802 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% [64]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations within a high range, opening at $2844.5 per ton and currently at $2847.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.11% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2857 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2842.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 6, LME aluminum futures opened at $2846.0, peaked at $2882.5, and closed at $2843.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.09% [2] - As of November 6, registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 506,950 tons, with canceled receipts at 41,425 tons, a reduction of 2,075 tons [2] - Total aluminum inventory stood at 548,375 tons, also down by 2,075 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 55,506 tons, a decrease of 31 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The current ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London is 7.51, with an import loss of -2,348.94 yuan per ton, compared to -2,447.6 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, with current trading prices around $2812.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.25% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 22, LME aluminum futures opened at $2780.0, reached a high of $2822.0, and closed at $2805.5, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - The trading range for LME aluminum on October 22 was between $2775.0 and $2822.0 [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 22, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 405,650 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 1,600 tons to 76,875 tons [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME was reported at 482,525 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 1,600 tons [1] - The ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.52, with the import loss calculated at -2,368.22 yuan per ton, compared to -2,263.34 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 67,270 tons, a decrease of 2,127 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is facing downward price pressure across the entire supply chain, from mining to smelting, leading to compressed profit margins. This unusual "internal weakness and external strength" market structure is reshaping global zinc trade flows and presenting unprecedented challenges to the domestic zinc industry [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly up from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance with increased supply and weak consumption [2]. - Since August, a rare divergence in domestic and international zinc markets has emerged, characterized by a strong rise in LME zinc prices from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices have fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton, showing weakness [2][6]. - The extreme price disparity has caused the Shanghai-LME ratio to drop to 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [2][7]. Processing Fees and Market Behavior - There is a notable divergence in processing fees, with imported zinc concentrate processing fees rising while domestic processing fees are declining. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [8][9]. - The decline in domestic processing fees is attributed to the worsening Shanghai-LME ratio, leading domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic ore, tightening its supply and allowing suppliers to increase prices [10]. Production and Consumption Trends - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year, with expectations of slight improvement in September as production normalizes post-summer [12]. - Domestic refined zinc production reached a record high of 620,000 tons in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][15]. - Zinc consumption remains weak, with actual consumption in August at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [18]. Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - Macro-economic data supports the view of weak zinc consumption, with significant declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which are closely linked to zinc demand [19]. - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased significantly, reaching 160,000 tons by September 20, with projections suggesting it could rise to around 250,000 tons by year-end [20]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, which may prevent significant price drops in the near term [21]. Future Market Predictions - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply and weak consumption, yet the market has not shown a significant downward trend due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [23][24]. - Short-term predictions indicate that while global economic conditions may support metal prices, domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases in the domestic market [25].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly increasing from the year's low of around 100,000 tons, indicating a clear imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic zinc market, characterized by a surge in supply and weak consumption [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since August, a rare divergence has emerged in the domestic and international zinc markets, creating an "internal weakness and external strength" scenario, with LME zinc prices rising from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The extreme divergence in prices has led to a significant drop in the Shanghai-London ratio, reaching a low of 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [1][4]. Processing Fees - There has been a notable divergence in processing fees for zinc concentrates, with imported processing fees rising while domestic processing fees have declined. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [5][6]. - The primary reason for this divergence is the deteriorating Shanghai-London ratio, which has led domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic concentrates, tightening supply and reducing processing fees for domestic materials [7]. Production and Consumption - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year. The cumulative production from January to August reached 2.75 million tons, also a 3% increase year-on-year [9]. - Domestic refined zinc production in August reached 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [10]. - Zinc consumption in August was weak, with actual consumption at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [12][13]. Inventory Trends - As of September 20, domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 163,100 tons, an increase of nearly 90,000 tons from the year's low, with expectations that it may reach around 250,000 tons by year-end [14]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, indicating a potential for price pressure if the inventory trend reverses [15]. Market Outlook - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply, high processing fees, record domestic smelting output, and weak consumption. However, the market has not shown significant weakness due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [16][17]. - Short-term predictions suggest that the macroeconomic environment, with major economies entering a rate-cutting cycle, may provide support for metal prices, although domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases [18].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a slight increase observed on October 14, 2023, indicating a stable market trend for aluminum [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 14, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2759.5 per ton and are currently at $2763 per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase. The intraday high reached $2770.5 per ton, while the lowest point was $2759 per ton [1] - On October 13, 2023, the LME aluminum futures had the following prices: opening at $2754.0, reaching a high of $2775.5, a low of $2744.0, and closing at $2757.0, which is a 0.40% increase [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 13, 2023, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at the LME totaled 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons being canceled, resulting in a decrease of 2,825 tons. The total aluminum inventory stands at 506,000 tons, also down by 2,825 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 63,151 tons, which is an increase of 4,032 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.55, with the import profit and loss standing at -2,475.83 yuan per ton, compared to -2,395.89 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations at high levels, with a current price of $2778.5 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.14% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - On October 9, LME aluminum futures opened at $2749.0, reached a high of $2807.5, and closed at $2782.5, marking an increase of 1.13% [2] - As of October 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 58,894 tons, a decrease of 227 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,375.01 yuan per ton, compared to -1,686.9 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 403,475 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,500 tons, and total aluminum inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]