北京时间10月23日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格高位偏强运行，今日开盘报2805美元/吨，现报 2812.5美元/吨，涨幅0.25%，盘中最高触及2814美元/吨，最低下探2804.5美元/吨。 LME铝期货行情回顾： 10月22日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 【铝市场消息速递】 10月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单405650吨。注销仓单76875吨，减少1600吨。铝库存 482525吨，减少1600吨。 10月22日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.52，进口盈亏：-2368.22元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-2263.34元/ 吨。 10月22日，上期所铝期货仓单67270吨，环比上个交易日减少2127吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2780.0 2822.0 2775.0 2805.5 0.88% ...

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is facing downward price pressure across the entire supply chain, from mining to smelting, leading to compressed profit margins. This unusual "internal weakness and external strength" market structure is reshaping global zinc trade flows and presenting unprecedented challenges to the domestic zinc industry [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly up from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance with increased supply and weak consumption [2]. - Since August, a rare divergence in domestic and international zinc markets has emerged, characterized by a strong rise in LME zinc prices from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices have fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton, showing weakness [2][6]. - The extreme price disparity has caused the Shanghai-LME ratio to drop to 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [2][7]. Processing Fees and Market Behavior - There is a notable divergence in processing fees, with imported zinc concentrate processing fees rising while domestic processing fees are declining. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [8][9]. - The decline in domestic processing fees is attributed to the worsening Shanghai-LME ratio, leading domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic ore, tightening its supply and allowing suppliers to increase prices [10]. Production and Consumption Trends - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year, with expectations of slight improvement in September as production normalizes post-summer [12]. - Domestic refined zinc production reached a record high of 620,000 tons in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][15]. - Zinc consumption remains weak, with actual consumption in August at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [18]. Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - Macro-economic data supports the view of weak zinc consumption, with significant declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which are closely linked to zinc demand [19]. - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased significantly, reaching 160,000 tons by September 20, with projections suggesting it could rise to around 250,000 tons by year-end [20]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, which may prevent significant price drops in the near term [21]. Future Market Predictions - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply and weak consumption, yet the market has not shown a significant downward trend due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [23][24]. - Short-term predictions indicate that while global economic conditions may support metal prices, domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases in the domestic market [25].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly increasing from the year's low of around 100,000 tons, indicating a clear imbalance between supply and demand in the domestic zinc market, characterized by a surge in supply and weak consumption [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since August, a rare divergence has emerged in the domestic and international zinc markets, creating an "internal weakness and external strength" scenario, with LME zinc prices rising from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton [1][3]. - The extreme divergence in prices has led to a significant drop in the Shanghai-London ratio, reaching a low of 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [1][4]. Processing Fees - There has been a notable divergence in processing fees for zinc concentrates, with imported processing fees rising while domestic processing fees have declined. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [5][6]. - The primary reason for this divergence is the deteriorating Shanghai-London ratio, which has led domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic concentrates, tightening supply and reducing processing fees for domestic materials [7]. Production and Consumption - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, remaining stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year. The cumulative production from January to August reached 2.75 million tons, also a 3% increase year-on-year [9]. - Domestic refined zinc production in August reached 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [10]. - Zinc consumption in August was weak, with actual consumption at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [12][13]. Inventory Trends - As of September 20, domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 163,100 tons, an increase of nearly 90,000 tons from the year's low, with expectations that it may reach around 250,000 tons by year-end [14]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, indicating a potential for price pressure if the inventory trend reverses [15]. Market Outlook - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply, high processing fees, record domestic smelting output, and weak consumption. However, the market has not shown significant weakness due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [16][17]. - Short-term predictions suggest that the macroeconomic environment, with major economies entering a rate-cutting cycle, may provide support for metal prices, although domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases [18].

北京时间10月14日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报2759.5美元/吨，现报2763 美元/吨，涨幅0.22%，盘中最高触及2770.5美元/吨，最低下探2759美元/吨。 LME铝期货行情回顾： 10月13日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2754.0 2775.5 2744.0 2757.0 0.40% 【铝市场消息速递】 10月13日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单405700吨。注销仓单100300吨，减少2825吨。铝库 存506000吨，减少2825吨。 10月13日，上期所铝期货仓单63151吨，环比上个交易日增加4032吨。 10月13日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.55，进口盈亏：-2475.83元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-2395.89元/ 吨。 ...

品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2749.0 2807.5 2746.0 2782.5 1.13% 【铝市场消息速递】 北京时间10月10日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格高位弱势震荡，今日开盘报2786美元/吨，现报 每吨2778.5美元/吨，跌幅0.14%，盘中最高触及2788美元/吨，最低下探2777.5美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 10月9日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 10月9日，上期所铝期货仓单58894吨，环比上个交易日减少227吨。 10月9日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.56，进口盈亏：-2375.01元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1686.9元/ 吨。 10月9日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单403475吨。注销仓单105125吨，减少2500吨。铝库存 508600吨，增加2200吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

锌：跨市矛盾显著，锌价偏弱运行 吴坤金 报告要点： 9 月 18 日凌晨美联储如期降息 25BP，货币政策表态不及市场预期鸽派，贵金属及有色金属短 线运行承压。伦锌远端预期虽有转弱，但当前伦锌低库存状况下，结构呈现较强 Back 结构， 近端仍有一定支撑。 张世骄（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 国内市场，从边际变动来看，当前临近冶炼企业冬季备库，锌精矿加工费出现分化。进口锌精 矿加工费（TC）延续上行，国产锌精矿 TC 均价小幅下滑，随着锌矿进口窗口关闭，预计后续 海外锌矿 TC 上行放缓，锌矿过剩程度缓解。此外，沪伦比值已运行至相对低位，若后续比价 进一步滑落，锌锭出口窗口开启后，内外正套资金平仓亦会为沪锌提供一定支撑。总体预计后 续沪伦比值仍将偏弱运行，但下行速率或将减缓，国内锌价还将维持震荡偏弱运行。 有色研究员 专题报告 2025-09-19 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 锌 锌：跨市矛盾显著，锌价偏弱运行 202 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading prices showing a minor increase compared to previous sessions [1][2]. - On September 2, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton and reached a current price of $2624 per ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase [1]. - The trading range for LME aluminum on September 1 included an opening price of $2614.0, a high of $2620.0, a low of $2605.0, and a closing price of $2619.5, indicating a 0.04% change [2]. Group 2 - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,529 tons, which is a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.9, with an import loss of -1,323.15 yuan per ton, compared to -1,288.51 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]. - LME's registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, indicating no change, while total aluminum inventory remained at 481,050 tons, also unchanged [2].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a weak trend, opening at $2614 per ton and currently at $2611 per ton, with a decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2619 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2608.5 per ton [1] - On August 29, LME aluminum futures opened at $2607.5, peaked at $2622.0, and closed at $2618.5, reflecting a change of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - As of August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,629 tons, an increase of 1,354 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.93, with an import loss of -1,288.51 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1,318.71 yuan per ton the previous day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 481,050 tons, also down by 100 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in LME copper futures prices, with a current price of $9835.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.60% increase from the opening price of $9795 per ton [1] - On August 13, LME copper futures opened at $9829.0, reached a high of $9865.0, and closed at $9781.0, showing a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.09 on August 13, indicating an import loss of 75.3 yuan per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of 75.33 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of August 13, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,325 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons, reaching a total of 155,875 tons on August 13 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper futures warrants to 22,800 tons, down by 3,496 tons from the previous trading day [1]