1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a current price of $12,846.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.39% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 20, LME copper futures opened at $12,933.0, reached a high of $12,988.0, and closed at $12,796.5, marking a decrease of 1.47% [2] - The registered copper warehouse receipts at LME on January 20 were 108,500 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 750 tons to 47,800 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons [2] Group 2 - On January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 148,193 tons, which is a decrease of 4,462 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.8, indicating an import loss of 1,447.22 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 1,345.92 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with a current price of $12,921.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.88% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 16, LME copper futures opened at $13,096.5 per ton, reached a high of $13,183.0, and closed at $12,808.5, marking a decrease of 2.59% [2] - As of January 16, LME registered copper warrants totaled 94,000 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 525 tons, resulting in a total copper inventory of 143,575 tons, which increased by 2,450 tons [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.82, indicating an import loss of ¥1,218.18 per ton, which improved from a loss of ¥1,465.85 per ton on the previous trading day [2] - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper futures warrant of 160,417 tons, which decreased by 2,300 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, opening at $2802.5 per ton and currently at $2806.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.74% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2810 per ton, while the lowest was $2800.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 21, LME aluminum futures opened at $2803.0, peaked at $2812.0, and closed at $2808.0, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% [2] - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 69,283 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 490,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 57,275 tons, a reduction of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 548,000 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.63, with an import loss of -1,797.86 yuan per ton, compared to -1,760.26 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, opening at $2880.5 per ton and currently at $2883.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.45% [1] - On November 13, LME aluminum futures opened at $2883.0, reached a high of $2911.5, a low of $2873.0, and closed at $2877.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.31% [2] - As of November 13, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 521,525 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,675 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 9,125 tons to 553,200 tons [2] Group 2 - On November 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 64,742 tons, an increase of 924 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,002.18 yuan per ton, improving from -2,149.66 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations within a high range, opening at $2844.5 per ton and currently at $2847.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.11% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2857 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2842.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 6, LME aluminum futures opened at $2846.0, peaked at $2882.5, and closed at $2843.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.09% [2] - As of November 6, registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 506,950 tons, with canceled receipts at 41,425 tons, a reduction of 2,075 tons [2] - Total aluminum inventory stood at 548,375 tons, also down by 2,075 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 55,506 tons, a decrease of 31 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The current ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London is 7.51, with an import loss of -2,348.94 yuan per ton, compared to -2,447.6 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Core Insights - LME copper futures prices are experiencing high volatility, with the opening price at $10,974 per ton and a current price of $11,028 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The trading session saw a peak price of $11,050 per ton and a low of $10,974 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Overview - On October 27, LME copper futures opened at $10,995 per ton, reached a high of $11,094 per ton, and closed at $11,004 per ton, marking a 0.52% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai-London ratio is 7.99, with an import loss of -¥785.85 per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of -¥798.09 per ton [2] - As of October 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 35,392 tons, an increase of 321 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 126,000 tons, with 9,975 tons of canceled receipts, a decrease of 375 tons [2] - Total copper inventory at LME stands at 135,975 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 375 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, with current trading prices around $2812.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.25% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 22, LME aluminum futures opened at $2780.0, reached a high of $2822.0, and closed at $2805.5, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - The trading range for LME aluminum on October 22 was between $2775.0 and $2822.0 [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 22, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 405,650 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 1,600 tons to 76,875 tons [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME was reported at 482,525 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 1,600 tons [1] - The ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.52, with the import loss calculated at -2,368.22 yuan per ton, compared to -2,263.34 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 67,270 tons, a decrease of 2,127 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a slight increase observed on October 14, 2023, indicating a stable market trend for aluminum [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 14, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2759.5 per ton and are currently at $2763 per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase. The intraday high reached $2770.5 per ton, while the lowest point was $2759 per ton [1] - On October 13, 2023, the LME aluminum futures had the following prices: opening at $2754.0, reaching a high of $2775.5, a low of $2744.0, and closing at $2757.0, which is a 0.40% increase [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 13, 2023, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at the LME totaled 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons being canceled, resulting in a decrease of 2,825 tons. The total aluminum inventory stands at 506,000 tons, also down by 2,825 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 63,151 tons, which is an increase of 4,032 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.55, with the import profit and loss standing at -2,475.83 yuan per ton, compared to -2,395.89 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]