北京时间11月24日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报2802.5美元/吨，现报 2806.5美元/吨，涨幅0.74%，盘中最高触及2810美元/吨，最低下探2800.5美元/吨。 更新时间： 11月21日，上期所铝期货仓单69283吨，环比上个交易日减少125吨。 11月21日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单490725吨，注销仓单57275吨，减少2000吨。铝库存 548000吨，增加3925吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2803.0 2812.0 2773.0 2808.0 0.05% 【铝市场消息速递】 11月21日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.63，进口盈亏：-1797.86元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1760.26元/ 吨。 LME铝期货行情回顾： 11月21日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 ...

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, opening at $2880.5 per ton and currently at $2883.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.45% [1] - On November 13, LME aluminum futures opened at $2883.0, reached a high of $2911.5, a low of $2873.0, and closed at $2877.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.31% [2] - As of November 13, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 521,525 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,675 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 9,125 tons to 553,200 tons [2] Group 2 - On November 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 64,742 tons, an increase of 924 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,002.18 yuan per ton, improving from -2,149.66 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations within a high range, opening at $2844.5 per ton and currently at $2847.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.11% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2857 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2842.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 6, LME aluminum futures opened at $2846.0, peaked at $2882.5, and closed at $2843.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.09% [2] - As of November 6, registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 506,950 tons, with canceled receipts at 41,425 tons, a reduction of 2,075 tons [2] - Total aluminum inventory stood at 548,375 tons, also down by 2,075 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 55,506 tons, a decrease of 31 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The current ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London is 7.51, with an import loss of -2,348.94 yuan per ton, compared to -2,447.6 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Core Insights - LME copper futures prices are experiencing high volatility, with the opening price at $10,974 per ton and a current price of $11,028 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The trading session saw a peak price of $11,050 per ton and a low of $10,974 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Overview - On October 27, LME copper futures opened at $10,995 per ton, reached a high of $11,094 per ton, and closed at $11,004 per ton, marking a 0.52% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in the Shanghai-London ratio is 7.99, with an import loss of -¥785.85 per ton, slightly improved from the previous day's loss of -¥798.09 per ton [2] - As of October 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 35,392 tons, an increase of 321 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 126,000 tons, with 9,975 tons of canceled receipts, a decrease of 375 tons [2] - Total copper inventory at LME stands at 135,975 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 375 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, with current trading prices around $2812.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.25% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 22, LME aluminum futures opened at $2780.0, reached a high of $2822.0, and closed at $2805.5, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - The trading range for LME aluminum on October 22 was between $2775.0 and $2822.0 [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 22, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 405,650 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 1,600 tons to 76,875 tons [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME was reported at 482,525 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 1,600 tons [1] - The ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.52, with the import loss calculated at -2,368.22 yuan per ton, compared to -2,263.34 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 67,270 tons, a decrease of 2,127 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a slight increase observed on October 14, 2023, indicating a stable market trend for aluminum [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 14, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2759.5 per ton and are currently at $2763 per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase. The intraday high reached $2770.5 per ton, while the lowest point was $2759 per ton [1] - On October 13, 2023, the LME aluminum futures had the following prices: opening at $2754.0, reaching a high of $2775.5, a low of $2744.0, and closing at $2757.0, which is a 0.40% increase [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 13, 2023, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at the LME totaled 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons being canceled, resulting in a decrease of 2,825 tons. The total aluminum inventory stands at 506,000 tons, also down by 2,825 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 63,151 tons, which is an increase of 4,032 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.55, with the import profit and loss standing at -2,475.83 yuan per ton, compared to -2,395.89 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations at high levels, with a current price of $2778.5 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.14% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - On October 9, LME aluminum futures opened at $2749.0, reached a high of $2807.5, and closed at $2782.5, marking an increase of 1.13% [2] - As of October 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 58,894 tons, a decrease of 227 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,375.01 yuan per ton, compared to -1,686.9 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 403,475 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,500 tons, and total aluminum inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading prices showing a minor increase compared to previous sessions [1][2]. - On September 2, LME aluminum futures opened at $2619.5 per ton and reached a current price of $2624 per ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase [1]. - The trading range for LME aluminum on September 1 included an opening price of $2614.0, a high of $2620.0, a low of $2605.0, and a closing price of $2619.5, indicating a 0.04% change [2]. Group 2 - As of September 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 58,529 tons, which is a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.9, with an import loss of -1,323.15 yuan per ton, compared to -1,288.51 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]. - LME's registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,300 tons, indicating no change, while total aluminum inventory remained at 481,050 tons, also unchanged [2].