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建信期货集运指数日报-20250723
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 02:24
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates is about to appear. The SCFIS this week has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared with last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. After the continuous repair of the 08 contract, the current discount space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and the positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Industry News - From July 14 to July 18, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with most route market freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index on July 18 was 1646.90 points, a 5.0% drop from the previous period [9] - In the first half of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with exports increasing by 7.2% year - on - year, which will support the Chinese export container shipping market in the long term [9] - The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 36.1, and Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index reached 52.7, a new high since February 2022, indicating that the European economy continues to recover [9] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting from August 1, and the EU drafted a tariff list for US services in response, so Sino - European trade still faces great uncertainty [9] - On July 18, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 2079 US dollars/TEU, a 1.0% drop from the previous period; the market freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2528 US dollars/TEU, a 5.2% drop from the previous period [9][10] - In June, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, the highest in four months. The market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on July 18 were 2142 US dollars/FEU and 3612 US dollars/FEU respectively, down 2.4% and 13.4% from the previous period [10] - Due to the continuous blockade of the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, Eilat Port in Israel has stopped all operations since July 20, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and trigger potential security concerns [10] - Trump said the US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US has also reached agreements with Indonesia and notified some Southeast Asian countries of new tariff rates [10] - The leader of the Yemeni Houthi rebels said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the Houthi rebels will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea [10] Data Overview Container Shipping Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 2400.5 points, a 0.9% drop from July 14; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1301.81 points, a 2.8% increase from July 14 [12] Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 22 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, open interests and position changes. For example, the EC2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 2.20% [6] Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures contract trends, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [13][17][22]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250722
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - **Israeli Ports**: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - **Trade Policies**: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].
集运早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream is booking space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30). Shipping companies' quotes for the second half of July are mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the last week of July (week 30). Spot prices are stable supported by shipping companies' base cargo, but there may be pressure in week 32 due to weakening cargo volume support [2]. - In July and August 2025, the average weekly capacity is 295,000 and 321,500 TEU respectively. The addition of a large ship on MSK's AE1 route in week 32 increases supply pressure, with the capacity reaching 330,000 TEU [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2164.5 with a 0.53% increase, EC2510 at 1581.3 with a 1.05% decrease, EC2512 at 1756.3 with a 0.15% decrease, EC2602 at 1485.7 with a 1.52% increase, EC2604 at 1309.0 with a 2.20% increase, and EC2606 at 1432.1 with a 0.74% increase [1]. - For month - to - month spreads, EC2508 - 2510 was 583.2, EC2510 - 2512 was - 175.0, and EC2512 - 2602 was 270.6 [1]. Spot Indexes - The current index on July 14, 2025, was 2421.94 points, up 7.26% from the previous period. SCFI on July 11, 2025, was $2099/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period. CCFI was 1726.41 points, up 1.90% from the previous period. NCFI was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period. TCI was 1019.55 points, unchanged from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 321,500 TEU respectively. In week 32, the capacity reaches 330,000 TEU due to MSK's additional ship on the AE1 route [1]. Quotes - In the second half of July, shipping companies' quotes for week 29 are around $3400. For week 30, HPL, CMA, OOCL, and MSC reduced quotes by about $200, with an average of $3300 (equivalent to 2300 points). MSK kept the quote for week 31 flat at $2900 - $3000 [2]. News - On July 17, Houthi rebels claimed to attack multiple targets in Israel, causing "flight disruptions". On July 18, significant progress was made in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations, with Israel making concessions for a 60 - day cease - fire. The US presidential hostage envoy said that an agreement with Hamas on releasing Israeli personnel was "closer than ever" [3].
集运市场从“炒预期”到“做现实”
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the futures market and shipping industry, focusing on the impact of tariff policies and market dynamics on shipping rates and cargo volumes [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Tariff Policies** The futures market has shown a strong rebound, particularly in August contracts, which are influenced by current spot prices due to the ban on certain contracts. This indicates a close correlation between spot prices and futures contracts [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Recent Negotiations** Negotiations that began on July 7 between the U.S. and other countries have led to a more favorable outcome compared to April's tariffs. This has resulted in a market rebound as negative sentiments have eased [2][7]. 3. **Future Tariff Pressures** Despite the recent rebound, there are concerns about increased tariffs set to take effect before 2024, which will continue to exert pressure on future contracts due to rising costs [2][9]. 4. **Stability in Freight Rates** Current high-frequency data indicates that freight rates remain stable, with no significant increases or decreases in shipping capacity and cargo volume [3][6]. 5. **Cargo Volume Trends** The shipping industry has seen varied trends in cargo volumes across different routes, with significant increases noted in African shipping routes, which have absorbed a lot of shipping capacity [5][10]. 6. **Seasonal Freight Rate Patterns** Seasonal patterns in freight rates have been observed, with a notable increase in rates following a period of tariff-induced export slowdowns. This has led to a recovery in shipping demand and rates [6][12]. 7. **Regional Shipping Dynamics** The records highlight that shipping capacity to regions like Africa and the Mediterranean is increasing, indicating a positive outlook for cargo volumes in these areas [10][11]. 8. **Future Market Expectations** There is a cautious optimism regarding future market conditions, with expectations that freight rates may continue to rise if shipping capacity and demand remain aligned [14][15]. Other Important Insights - The records emphasize the need for continuous monitoring of high-frequency data to capture rapid changes in the shipping market [3][12]. - The relationship between shipping capacity and freight rates is crucial, as fluctuations in one can significantly impact the other [14]. - The potential for further negotiations and tariff adjustments remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment and trading strategies [8][9].
建信期货集运指数日报-20250715
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:40
1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase in July exceeded expectations, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2400 points. Major shipping companies maintained stable prices, possibly supported by good cargo demand. The 08 contract is still at a discount to the spot index and has room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Spot Market**: On July 14, the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half of the month, and other shipping companies' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. For August, only a few shipping companies have reported rates, and it remains to be seen if others will follow the price hikes [8]. - **Contract Opportunities**: The 08 contract has room for repair as it is at a discount to the spot index. In October, a traditional off - season, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Market Overview**: From July 7 to 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates fluctuating by route. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped 1.7% to 1733.29 points on July 11 [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation remained uncertain. The freight rate from Shanghai to European basic ports on July 11 was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals were weaker than European routes, with the spot booking price slightly dropping. The freight rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean basic ports on July 11 was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% [9]. - **North American Routes**: Due to the "tariff war", the freight rates from Shanghai to US West and East basic ports on July 11 were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [9][10]. - **EU - US Trade Negotiations**: Auto and agricultural product tariffs were the key issues. Any agreement was subject to Trump's decision, and the EU was considering a second - round counter - measure with a reduced scale to 72 billion euros [10]. - **Trump's Tariff Plan**: Trump planned to impose a 15% or 20% unified tariff on almost all remaining trading partners [10]. - **Yemen Houthi Rebels**: The Houthi rebels prohibited Israeli - related ships from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships were sunk in the Red Sea within a week [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 14, the SCFIS for European routes was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from July 7; the SCFIS for US West routes was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures**: The trading data of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts on July 14, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][18][20]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:21
Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. The 08 contract has upward potential due to the expected peak - season price increase, while the 10 - month contract, being a traditional off - season, presents short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Most airlines maintained stable July quotes, with the median of the quotes from major airlines (except Maersk) in the second half of July around $3660. The market is watching Maersk's quote and the 8 - month quotes of other airlines. The expected peak - season price increase is being repaired, and considering good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward space, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - Market situation from June 30 to July 4: The China export container shipping market was stable, with ocean routes showing a differentiated trend and the composite index adjusting. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 5.3% from the previous period [9]. - European routes: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The market freight rate increased slightly, with the Shanghai - to - European basic port market freight rate at $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American routes: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. The Shanghai - to - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10]. - Geopolitical events: Houthi rebels launched an attack on Israel on July 6. The US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran said the damage was not as serious as the US claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, and China condemned the US attack [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **集运现货价格**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04, up 6.3% from June 30; for US West routes, it was 1557.77, down 3.8% from June 30 [12]. - **集运指数(欧线)期货行情**: Provided data on trading of several contracts on July 8, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - **航运相关数据走势图**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][18]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250704
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 06:27
Report Overview - Report Title: "Daily Report on Container Shipping Index" [1] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2000 points. The 08 contract has some upside potential, while attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and the next week's quote was $2900. Other shipping companies' quotes were mostly in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of about $3400. CMA CGM and HPL reported August freight rates of $4745 and $3535 respectively [8] - **Futures Market**: The 08 contract had broken below 1800 points, showing extremely pessimistic market expectations, which are now being repaired. With good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the peak - season price increase is expected to materialize, and the 08 contract has some upside potential. October is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9] - **Shipping Market News**: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. European routes' spot freight rates rose, while Mediterranean routes' rates fell slightly, and North American routes' rates continued to decline [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% to 2123.24 points, while the SCFIS US West route index decreased by 22.3% to 1619.19 points [15] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: Details of trading data for contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume, are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Charts include Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European route) futures trends, global container shipping capacity, and global container ship order backlog [15][18][22]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250703
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:08
Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2000 points. The 08 contract is expected to have some upside potential, while the 10th month, a traditional off - season, presents opportunities for short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the end of June, the price increase was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and the next week's quote was $2900. Other shipping companies' quotes were mostly in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of about $3400. CMA CGM and HPL reported August freight rates of $4745 and $3535 respectively [8]. - Futures Market: The 08 contract is expected to have upside potential due to improved market expectations, good cargo volume, and port congestion in Europe. For the 10th month, which is a traditional off - season, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Geopolitical Event: Iran launched a missile attack on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9]. - Shipping Market: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. The European route showed weak demand, while the Mediterranean route's freight rate decreased slightly, and the North American route's freight rate continued to fall [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - Spot Freight Rates: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% to 2123.24 points, while the SCFIS US West route index decreased by 22.3% to 1619.19 points [15]. - Futures Market Data: For EC2508, the closing price was 1883.5, up 30.9 (1.67%); for EC2510, the closing price was 1367.9, down 0.9 (- 0.07%); for EC2512, the closing price was 1528.0, up 1.5 (0.10%); for EC2602, the closing price was 1325.2, down 6.0 (- 0.45%); for EC2604, the closing price was 1174.2, down 1.3 (- 0.11%); for EC2606, the closing price was 1310.0, down 3.6 (- 0.27%) [6].
建信期货集运指数日报-20250702
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:52
Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk quoted $2958 in mid - July, and most other shipping companies' quotes were concentrated in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of around $3400. However, the futures market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect the freight rate to drop to a low level after the August peak. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. Currently, the 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - month quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of about $3400. - Futures market: The market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract. - Investment suggestions: Due to strong European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - International news: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. There was no sign of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. - Shipping market news: From June 23 to 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. European routes saw an increase in spot market booking prices due to good transportation demand; Mediterranean routes had weak fundamentals and slightly falling freight rates; North American routes had stable transportation demand but continued to see falling freight rates. - Geopolitical news: Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran said the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS European route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 2123.24 points, up 186.1 points (9.6%) from June 23. - SCFIS US West route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 1619.19 points, down 464.27 points (-22.3%) from June 23 [12] 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - Provided the trading data of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts on July 1, including previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:29
Report Information - Report Title: "Industry - Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. The 08 contract in the futures market is currently below 1800 points and lower than the 06 contract, potentially indicating that the market is skipping the peak - season price increase and expecting low prices after the August peak. Considering the strong export demand in Europe, stable shipping capacity supply, and stable quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month traditional off - season provides opportunities for short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the end of June, the price increase was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of around $3400 [8] - Futures Market: The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect low prices after the August peak. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and there are opportunities for short - selling in October and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical News: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9] - Shipping Market News: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different trends in long - haul routes. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on June 27 was 1861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period. European routes' prices rose, Mediterranean routes' prices fell slightly, and North American routes' prices continued to decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% from June 23 to June 30, while the US West route index decreased by 22.3% [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures main and sub - main contracts, global container shipping capacity, etc. [13][17]