集运目报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2508 | | 昨日收盘价 2088.2 | 涨跌 (%) 0.21 | 基差 147.3 | 昨日成交量 | 250 | 昨日持仓葺 2452 | 持合变动 -54 | | | EC2510 EC2512 | | 1373.1 1789.7 | -0.04 1.51 | 862.4 445.8 | 28103 6293 | | 53182 11796 | -1677 472 | | | EC2602 | | 1537.9 | 0.51 | 697.6 | 1319 | | 4449 | 11 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1331.0 | -0.08 | 904.5 | 1005 | | 5566 | 17 | | | EC2606 | | 1494.9 | 0.50 | 740.6 | | 215 | 847 | 25 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 ...

目前下游正预定8月第二 三周（week33-34）的舱位。Week33报价跌至2800-3200美金，均值3000美金（折盘2100点左右）: 周 -, CMA跌200至3245美金, HPL跌300至2835, MSC跌300至3040, OOCL跌100至3100美金, ī, MSK对week34开舱2600美金, 环比周跌幅200美金。开舱后上涨至2640美金。Week34目前报价均值折盘面2050点左右。 周 消息面 8/6 以色列总理决定全面占领加沙 计划将于8月7日提交表决。当地时间8月5日获悉，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡决定全面占领加沙。据以色 列多家媒体5日晚报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在召开有限范围内安全会议后， "强烈倾向干全面占领加沙地带" 。目前，以军已经控制 了加沙地带约75％的区域。而根据当天会议的新计划，以色列军方将推进占领剩余区域，从而将整个加沙地带置于以色列控制之下。该 计划将于8月7日提交以色列安全内阁全体会议表决。 注: XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布 集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/6 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week 32 of August, the container receiving was good but there were mostly empty containers. In week 33, the container receiving situation of different alliances varied, with MSK performing better while OA and PA deteriorating. MSK's price dropped by $100, and OA and PA's shipping companies gradually reduced prices by about $200. Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European route is very high, with the weekly average capacity in September 2025 (tentatively) at 343,000 TEU, and 323,000 TEU after excluding TBN [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of different EC futures contracts (such as EC2508, EC2510, etc.) are presented, with the closing price of EC2508 at 190.1, EC2510 at 892.6, etc., and corresponding percentage changes [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads between different contracts (e.g., EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512) and their daily and previous - period comparisons are provided. For example, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 702.5, with a daily change of 6.0 [1][2]. Index Information - **SCEIS**: Updated on July 28, 2025, the index value is 2316.56, showing a - 3.50% change from the previous period and a - 0.89% change from the period before that [2]. - **SCFI (European Route)**: Updated on August 1, 2025, the value is $2051 per TEU, with a - 1.87% change from the previous period and a 0.53% change from the period before that [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated on August 1, 2025, the value is 1789.5 points, showing a 0.13% change from the previous period and a - 0.90% change from the period before that [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated on August 1, 2025, the value is 1372.7, with a - 3.53% change from the previous period and a - 1.20% change from the period before that [2]. European Route Supply and Demand and Pricing - **Supply**: Starting from late August, the supply pressure on the European route is high, with the weekly average capacity in week 34/35 at 340,000 TEU, and in September 2025 (tentatively) at 343,000 TEU, 323,000 TEU after excluding TBN [3]. - **Pricing**: Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the first half of August (week 32 - 33). The price in week 32 may settle at around $3200 (equivalent to 2250 points on the futures market), and the current average quote in week 33 is about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market) [3]. Related News - The United States will impose tariffs ranging from 15 - 41% on 67 countries/regions starting from August 7 [4]. - The cease - fire negotiation in Gaza is on the verge of collapse, and Israel is considering expanding military operations [4].