（来源：吴说） Hyperliquid 表示，HyperCore 将支持 Outcome 合约交易（HIP-4）。Outcome 为全额抵押、在固定区间 内结算的合约原语，适用于预测市场及类期权的有界衍生品等场景，不涉及杠杆或强平，具备非线性与 到期合约特征。该原语可与组合保证金及 HyperEVM 组合，提升 HyperCore 的表达能力。目前 Outcome 仍处于测试网阶段，完成开发后将上线基于客观结算源的标准化市场，并以 USDH 计价，后 续拟根据用户反馈推进无许可部署。 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant shift as participants move towards prediction markets, reflecting both opportunities and fatigue due to a nearly 30% decline in Bitcoin since its peak last October, with many altcoins performing even worse [1] - Prediction markets are attracting the same speculative crowd, offering immediate gratification through binary odds and quick results, contrasting with the long-term roadmaps typical in cryptocurrency [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The nominal trading volume on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from $500 million in June last year to nearly $6 billion in January this year [1] - The download rates for prediction market applications have increased significantly, with Polymarket's installations rising from 30,000 in January last year to over 400,000 by December, and Kalshi's from 80,000 to 1.3 million in the same period [2] Group 2: Shift in User Engagement - Despite traders abandoning the "token dream," the underlying infrastructure of prediction markets still operates on blockchain technology, indicating a persistent application of crypto technology [2] - The decline in crypto exchange app downloads contrasts with the growth of prediction market apps, highlighting a shift in user engagement [2] Group 3: Financial Implications - Over 11 million tokens were reported to have "died" last year, marking the largest extinction event in crypto history, with an estimated $150 billion in altcoin market value evaporating from late 2024 to late 2025 [5] - Major exchanges like Binance have seen their download numbers drop by more than half, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest in traditional crypto trading [2][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Prediction markets are becoming a new battleground for speculation, with platforms allowing bets on Bitcoin's future prices, and crypto-related contracts becoming the second most active trading category on Polymarket [7] - Companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are expected to generate significant revenue from prediction market operations, with estimates of $700 million and nearly $300 million respectively for 2023 [8] - The expansion into prediction markets is seen as complementary to existing business models, with Coinbase planning further developments in this area [8]

整个预测赛道我就玩了@opinionlabsxyz 根polymarketopn今天看页面快要tge了opn一直在重点参与，一共就搞了五六个号，积分榜前二十两个是我，五个号积分榜前一百opn应该是最快tge的预测赛道头部项目只玩头部、其他什么阿猫阿狗放掉就好了任何赛道只有头部才有暴击的可能 https://t.co/1zH3cKCVeb何币 (@hebi555):预测市场是最好的空投标的1、不卷、真的不卷，头部项目polymarket200W个地址2、赛道天花板足够高，空投总价值极高，项目融资巨大3、赛道目前没有发币的龙头，优质项目不多、交互简单4、交互成本极低，成本可控、扫尾盘甚至可以做的0成本5、赛道有前景、有真实用户、有真实需求、有真实收益 ...

预测市场是最好的空投标的1、不卷、真的不卷，头部项目polymarket200W个地址2、赛道天花板足够高，空投总价值极高，项目融资巨大3、赛道目前没有发币的龙头，优质项目不多、交互简单4、交互成本极低，成本可控、扫尾盘甚至可以做的0成本5、赛道有前景、有真实用户、有真实需求、有真实收益 ...

随着Kalshi等平台美式橄榄球相关交易量激增，DraftKings与Flutter面临竞争压力；Robinhood、Coinbase 和芝商所等平台也在监管演变背景下涉足该领域。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着Kalshi等平台美式橄榄球相关交易量激增，DraftKings与Flutter面临竞争压力；Robinhood、Coinbase 和芝商所等平台也在监管演变背景下涉足该领域。 ...

据AXIOS网站：预测市场的交易者押注贝莱德高管瑞克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）为美联储主席热门人 选。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

本来预测市场的项目，除了目前已有的几家做起来的之外，大部分就是炒作概念，有没有产品打钱的人并不在乎。因为但凡能正常发币上一点正常的所，大概率是能赚的，Limitless 甚至没上任何所开盘都好多倍了没想到这次先信资本也可能要出事了。Into 那个预测市场今天看了很多 FUD，具体到底亏没亏等开盘了，但要是这个亏了的话，其他预测市场圈钱的项目我是不会再掏钱了。。。 ...

Group 1 - Xiaomi reported two incidents of vehicle fires, emphasizing that the battery status was normal during both events [3][5] - In the first incident on January 19, a vehicle in Haikou experienced a fire shortly after being parked, but no injuries were reported [3] - The second incident involved a collision on a highway in Henan, where the vehicle caught fire after the accident, with no casualties [5] Group 2 - Gree Electric plans to mass-produce silicon carbide chips for automotive use, with expectations that half of the chips used by GAC Group will come from Gree [4] - The company is expanding its production capabilities to include chips for photovoltaic storage and logistics vehicles [4] Group 3 - OpenAI's CFO announced that the company's annual revenue for 2025 is projected to exceed $20 billion, a significant increase from $6 billion in 2024 [16] - The growth is attributed to the expansion of computing capabilities and the introduction of advertising in ChatGPT [16] Group 4 - Hikvision reported a net profit of 14.188 billion yuan for 2025, representing an 18.46% year-on-year increase [22] - The company's total revenue reached 92.518 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.02% [22] Group 5 - Zhaoyan New Drug expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of approximately 214% to 371% [23] - The company anticipates a decrease in revenue, estimating between 1.573 billion to 1.738 billion yuan, a decline of about 13.90% to 22.10% [23] Group 6 - Hongyuan Green Energy forecasts a turnaround in net profit for 2025, estimating between 180 million to 250 million yuan [24] - The improvement is attributed to a vertically integrated supply chain and the sale of equity in a subsidiary, contributing approximately 291 million yuan to profits [24] Group 7 - Bright Dairy expects a net loss of 120 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 722 million yuan in the previous year [25] - The loss is primarily due to production issues at its overseas subsidiary, leading to increased costs and inventory write-offs [25]

Core Insights - Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 2025, driven by strong customer trading volume and interest income, showcasing operational resilience in a volatile market environment [1][2] Financial Performance - Total net revenue reached $1.64 billion, in line with market consensus, and up from $1.61 billion in the previous quarter and $1.39 billion year-over-year [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.65, exceeding the market expectation of $0.59, and significantly higher than $0.57 in Q3 and $0.35 in the same quarter last year [1] Operational Metrics - Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) increased by 30% year-over-year to 4.04 million, also higher than 3.62 million in Q3 [2] - Commission income rose by 22% to $582 million, driven by increased customer trading volume, with options, futures, and stock trading volumes growing by 27%, 22%, and 16% respectively [2] - Net interest income remained stable at $966 million, nearly unchanged from Q3 ($967 million) and significantly up from $807 million year-over-year [2] Customer Growth - Total customer accounts grew to 4.4 million, up from 4.13 million in the previous quarter and 3.34 million year-over-year [2] Cost Management - Execution, clearing, and distribution expenses for Q4 were $91 million, a 21% decrease year-over-year and slightly lower than the previous quarter [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its cryptocurrency and prediction market product offerings, recently allowing customers to fund their brokerage accounts using USDC stablecoin, enhancing transaction speed and flexibility [3] - As of the beginning of December, customer accounts reached 4.399 million, a 32% year-over-year increase, with daily average revenue trades at 3.384 million, up 4% year-over-year but down 21% from November [3]

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席 Mike Selig 宣布启动名为 "Future Proof" 的新计划，拟对现行监 管规则进行全面审查，以适应加密资产等新兴市场发展。Selig 表示，CFTC 将采取"最低有效监管强 度"原则，认为现有为传统期货设计的规则难以覆盖新型数字资产与交易场所。他称，若国会通过数字 资产市场结构立法并扩大 CFTC 权限，机构已准备好承担更多加密监管职责；该计划亦涵盖近年来快速 发展的预测市场，未来数日将公布更多政策调整。（The Block） （来源：吴说） ...