Michel：几天前，你发了一条推文，提到你觉得以太坊的初衷似乎面临着一些挑战，甚至觉得有必要回 归最初的价值观。你能先解释一下这个想法的背景吗？ Vitalik：我总是觉得回顾以太坊的早期是很有帮助的，尤其是回想当时大家所关注的事情和他们正在开 发的一些项目，像是各种不同的演示版本等。 （来源：吴说） 编译 | 吴说区块链 2 月 3 日 以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 在 2026 以太坊清迈未来峰会上与 P2P Foundation 创始人 Michel Bauwens 对话，分享了他们对 Web3、加密货币及社会协作的新思考。Vitalik 回顾了以太坊的初 衷，并表达了对加密货币领域现状的忧虑，强调技术发展必须服务于更广泛的社会与政治议题。他探讨 了加密领域如何在技术突破之外，解决日益加剧的全球不信任问题。Michel 则提出了"再生加速主义"的 理念，主张技术应当用于支持人类社会的可持续发展，尤其是关注如何让加密技术与生产性经济相结 合。他们讨论了去中心化社会模式，探讨了如何通过技术实现全球协作与资源共享，同时提出了 Web3 如何进入更深层的生产与社会变革的挑战。 嘉宾发言不代 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that success in the cryptocurrency market is not merely about making quick profits but about surviving through cycles and retaining wealth over time [3][4][5] - The article aims to explore the characteristics that allow some individuals to thrive in the volatile cryptocurrency market while others fail [4][5] - It suggests that understanding the historical context and the essence of the cryptocurrency market is crucial for long-term success [5][6] Group 2 - The article identifies that the true driving force behind the recovery of the cryptocurrency market is not merely new narratives or institutional involvement but rather a failure of collaboration among key elements [8][9] - It highlights that the stagnation in the market is due to a lack of new factors that can create synergy among new participants, leading to confusion about the market's future [9][10] - The distinction between "narrative" and "consensus" is crucial, where consensus refers to collective actions that drive long-term engagement, while narratives are merely stories that attract attention [10][11][12][14] Group 3 - The article outlines that true consensus evolution is what ultimately pulls the cryptocurrency world out of stagnation, and this evolution is marked by collective behaviors rather than just price movements [16][24][25] - It emphasizes the importance of observing behaviors rather than prices to identify genuine consensus upgrades [24][25] - The article provides a framework for recognizing the signs of a consensus upgrade, including the presence of new participants, the sustainability of behaviors, and the emotional investment of the community [53][54][56] Group 4 - The article discusses three significant historical phases in the cryptocurrency market: the ICO boom, the DeFi summer, and the NFT explosion, each representing a consensus upgrade that reshaped user behavior and market dynamics [27][33][41] - It notes that while each phase brought about significant changes, they also led to temporary bubbles and subsequent corrections, highlighting the cyclical nature of the market [38][48] - The lessons learned from these phases emphasize the importance of understanding underlying behaviors and community engagement rather than just focusing on price speculation [48][50] Group 5 - The article concludes with practical advice for investors, stressing the need for continuous learning, networking, and developing a robust understanding of market dynamics to identify future opportunities [60][68] - It suggests that building a multi-dimensional value system and maintaining a flexible yet firm belief in the underlying principles of investments are essential for long-term success [72][73][75] - The importance of community and collaboration in the cryptocurrency space is highlighted, indicating that true value comes from shared beliefs and collective actions rather than individual speculation [19][20][48]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant shift as participants move towards prediction markets, reflecting both opportunities and fatigue due to a nearly 30% decline in Bitcoin since its peak last October, with many altcoins performing even worse [1] - Prediction markets are attracting the same speculative crowd, offering immediate gratification through binary odds and quick results, contrasting with the long-term roadmaps typical in cryptocurrency [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The nominal trading volume on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from $500 million in June last year to nearly $6 billion in January this year [1] - The download rates for prediction market applications have increased significantly, with Polymarket's installations rising from 30,000 in January last year to over 400,000 by December, and Kalshi's from 80,000 to 1.3 million in the same period [2] Group 2: Shift in User Engagement - Despite traders abandoning the "token dream," the underlying infrastructure of prediction markets still operates on blockchain technology, indicating a persistent application of crypto technology [2] - The decline in crypto exchange app downloads contrasts with the growth of prediction market apps, highlighting a shift in user engagement [2] Group 3: Financial Implications - Over 11 million tokens were reported to have "died" last year, marking the largest extinction event in crypto history, with an estimated $150 billion in altcoin market value evaporating from late 2024 to late 2025 [5] - Major exchanges like Binance have seen their download numbers drop by more than half, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest in traditional crypto trading [2][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Prediction markets are becoming a new battleground for speculation, with platforms allowing bets on Bitcoin's future prices, and crypto-related contracts becoming the second most active trading category on Polymarket [7] - Companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are expected to generate significant revenue from prediction market operations, with estimates of $700 million and nearly $300 million respectively for 2023 [8] - The expansion into prediction markets is seen as complementary to existing business models, with Coinbase planning further developments in this area [8]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant speculative rebound as of January 2026, following a 65% decline in 2025, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [1][2][3] Market Performance - The market capitalization of Meme coins has rebounded from a low of $35 billion in late December to over $47.7 billion recently, showcasing a remarkable short-term increase [3] - Trading activity in the Meme coin sector has surged, with daily trading volume peaking at $8.7 billion, reflecting a 300% increase [3] Investor Behavior - The resurgence in liquidity is attributed more to a reallocation of market positions and the return of retail investors rather than a fundamental reassessment of the assets [3] - Meme coins are acting as leading indicators during the shift in market sentiment from "extreme fear" to "neutral" [2][4] Market Risks - The current market dynamics are characterized by high reflexivity, suggesting that if mainstream assets do not maintain consistent trading volumes, the rebound in Meme coins may only be temporary [2][4] - There are ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including fluctuations in macro policies, global geopolitical developments, and potential liquidity tightening, which could hinder the sustained upward movement of risk assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Meme assets indicates a return of risk appetite in the market, but it also suggests that true consensus has not yet been established, as participants are merely seeking a place to express their emotions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of Meme assets is characterized by synchronized increases in market capitalization, trading volume, and open interest in derivatives, indicating that participants are not just buying but also betting on a longer-term continuation [3]. - In the current market phase, mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not providing clear direction, leading to uncertainty and a lack of long-term consensus [3][5]. - Meme assets thrive in uncertain environments as they do not require consensus or understanding of long-term value, serving as a "risk thermometer" to gauge market sentiment [3][5]. Group 2: Behavioral Shifts - The current Meme market is different from previous cycles, as the accumulation of open interest suggests that funds are using leverage to express their judgments, indicating a shift from mere emotional trading to more strategic positioning [5]. - When Meme assets transition from being expressions of emotion to expressions of positions, they begin to carry expectations, which can lead to rapid deleveraging if those expectations diverge [5][8]. - The market's focus on easily understandable assets like Meme indicates a lack of restored consensus, with participants opting for the most straightforward trading options available [7][8]. Group 3: Future Implications - For the market to transition from a "temporary marketplace" represented by Meme assets to a more stable environment, it requires clearer value anchors and a more organized funding structure [8]. - If Bitcoin, Ethereum, or broader altcoin markets can establish stronger trends following a liquidity recovery, Meme assets may signal a genuine return of risk appetite; otherwise, their popularity could mask a deeper consensus vacuum [8].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a quieter Christmas compared to previous years, with Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000, and Ethereum (ETH) showing a decline from its previous highs [2][3] - A survey conducted over a month gathered insights from various participants in the crypto community, focusing on their investment experiences and reflections on the past year [3][4] Group 1: Survey Demographics - Over 60% of survey respondents have been in the crypto space for more than three years, indicating a predominance of experienced investors [5] - Newer investors, defined as those with less than three years of experience, make up approximately 38% of the respondents, suggesting a decline in new market entrants [6] Group 2: Investment Performance - More than 57% of respondents reported making a profit, with 17.2% achieving over 50% gains and 39.7% seeing gains between 0-50% [8] - Approximately 27% of participants experienced losses, with 12.1% facing significant losses of over 50% [8] Group 3: Profitability by Sector - Meme coins remain a popular and profitable investment, with about 34% of respondents indicating they earned profits primarily from this sector [10] - Mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL accounted for profits for around 26% of investors, reflecting their performance during the year [10] - DeFi projects attracted about 16% of respondents as a source of profit, while 12% reported earnings from airdrop interactions [10] Group 4: Losses by Sector - Approximately 28% of investors reported significant losses in meme coins and altcoins, highlighting their high-risk nature [14][15] - Contract trading resulted in losses for about 26% of participants, which is lower than expected given the volatility of the market [14] - NFT and GameFi projects were also significant sources of losses, with around 22% of respondents indicating they suffered due to these investments [14] Group 5: Reflections on Losses - About one-third of respondents attributed their losses to not cutting losses in time, a common issue among crypto investors [16] - Over 45% of participants cited slow reactions, conservative trading, or following market trends as reasons for their losses [16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The most promising sectors for 2026 include Real World Assets (RWA), AI, and meme coins, with RWA being mentioned by 31% of respondents [22][23] - Many participants advocate for a dollar-cost averaging strategy, particularly in BTC, as a sound investment approach [24]

Core Viewpoint - The "Trump concept" cryptocurrency sector has experienced a significant decline, with various associated assets plummeting in value, indicating a loss of investor confidence and a shift from a perceived "Trump premium" to a "Trump drag" [1][7][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - American Bitcoin's stock price fell by over 50% within minutes of market opening, reflecting panic among investors [2]. - The WLFI token has decreased by 51% from its early September high, while Alt5 Sigma's stock has dropped 85% from its yearly peak [5]. - Meme coins associated with Trump and Melania have seen price declines of approximately 90% and 99% from their January highs [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The initial endorsement of cryptocurrencies by Trump was seen as a catalyst for price increases, but this sentiment has reversed, leading to a significant loss of trust in these assets [3][8]. - Retail investors, particularly those who entered the market at peak prices, are suffering the most from these declines, with some reporting losses of up to 40% in their digital asset portfolios [11][12]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The decline in the value of Trump-related cryptocurrency projects has resulted in a loss of over $1 billion in wealth for the Trump family since October, although they still retain substantial profits [10]. - The political backing that once seemed beneficial for these projects is now viewed as a double-edged sword, with experts suggesting that Trump's involvement may have undermined their credibility [10].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency projects associated with the Trump family, once market darlings, are now facing a significant collapse in trust [1][2][3] - The "Trump premium" that previously boosted these assets has rapidly transformed into a "Trump drag" [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - American Bitcoin's stock plummeted by 33% within the first minute of trading, eventually dropping over 50% [1] - World Liberty Financial's token WLFI has decreased by 51% since early September [2] - Alt5 Sigma's stock has fallen by 85% from its yearly high [2] - Meme coins named after Trump and Melania have seen price declines of approximately 90% and 99% from their January peaks [2] Group 2: Impact of Trump's Involvement - Earlier this year, Trump's endorsement seemed to solidify the credibility of digital tokens, leading to significant price increases [3] - The merger announcement between Gryphon Digital and American Bitcoin resulted in a 173% stock surge, followed by a 16% increase on the first trading day post-merger [3] - Trump's push for regulatory changes initially benefited these projects, but his involvement has since become a liability [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are bearing the brunt of the losses, with the Trump family's wealth from crypto ventures declining by over $1 billion since October [6] - A Vancouver student reported a 40% drop in his digital token portfolio, expressing disappointment in the market's response despite Trump's support [7] - Bitcoin experienced a 6% increase on the same day American Bitcoin struggled, indicating a divergence between the Trump concept and the mainstream crypto market [7]

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing a period of consolidation before a potential breakout, with last night's favorable CPI data briefly boosting mainstream assets, but the buying momentum was insufficient to sustain the rally [1] - In the past 24 hours, a total of 113,801 individuals were liquidated, amounting to $221 million, with long positions accounting for $98.81 million and short positions for $123 million [1] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin is currently in a triangular consolidation pattern, having faced resistance at the upper boundary last night. If it can maintain support around $1,093, there is a significant chance for upward movement [2][3] - A breakdown below this support could lead to a decline towards the lower boundary around $1,070, where a rebound may occur. A breakout above $1,130 is necessary to confirm a strong bullish trend and open new upside potential [3] Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum attempted to break through the upper boundary of its channel last night but faced resistance and retreated. The focus is now on the support level around $3,860; if it can consolidate above this level, the outlook remains bullish [4] - If the $3,860 support fails, the price may further decline towards the lower boundary around $3,710, where the rebound strength should be monitored. A significant bullish trend requires a breakout above the upper boundary at $4,050 [4] Altcoin Sentiment - There is a prevailing bearish sentiment towards altcoins, with many considered to be of low quality. However, some altcoins have not been disproven, particularly leading public chains that rely on new asset issuance and future financial asset onboarding [6] - DeFi projects, as foundational infrastructure for on-chain ecosystems, have clear user bases and applications, indicating potential for growth despite the overall negative sentiment [6] Meme Coins and New Narratives - Meme coins, as native assets in the crypto space, still hold value, especially those that are fully circulated on major exchanges. New narratives such as Real World Assets (RWA), stablecoin payments, and AI integration with cryptocurrencies are still being explored and have not been disproven [7] - Projects that do not fall into the aforementioned categories should be avoided, particularly those lacking funding or facing competitive failures. Focus should be on projects with clear user bases and defined growth scenarios [7] Specific Coin Analysis - $ASTER has seen a continuous price decline since its launch on October 6, but a rebound has occurred since the 23rd, indicating a potential reversal. However, long-term performance remains uncertain due to intense competition in the Perpetual DEX space [8] - $ZEC is currently being shorted around the $265 mark, with a short-term target of $190. $SUI has support between $2.30 and $2.35, with resistance at $2.57 to $3.10 [9]

Core Insights - Meme coins, such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, have created numerous wealth myths due to their rapid price surges [1] - The volatility of meme coins often leads to quick crashes, raising questions about their fundamental nature [1] - The discussion focuses on the absurdity and appeal of meme coins within the cryptocurrency market [1] Group 1 - Meme coins can experience price increases of over a thousand times in a short period [1] - Many meme coins tend to collapse rapidly after their initial surge [1] - The essence of meme coins is explored, highlighting their unique position in the crypto landscape [1]