新华社纽约1月22日电 综述｜美联储理事去留难决 白宫美联储博弈加剧 保守派大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺认为，如果总统可以不经司法审查、无需履行程序并不提供救济渠道就作 出解职的决定，"将削弱美联储的独立性"。立场同样偏保守的大法官埃米·科尼·巴雷特表示，有部分经 济学家认为，如果库克被解职，将触发经济衰退。"在这样的案件中，我们应该如何考量公共利益？如 果有这种风险，我们是否应谨慎行事？" 美国财政部长贝森特指责鲍威尔越界。他认为，鲍威尔正在让美联储"政治化"，鲍威尔的出现是一 个"政治宣示"。 自1913年成立以来，美联储保持一定程度的自主性，其运行资金自筹，不依靠拨款。美联储理事经总统 提名和国会确认后有长达14年的固定任期。1913年通过的《联邦储备法》规定，总统只能"因故"解雇美 联储理事，但并未明确"因故"的具体内容。 美国总统特朗普2025年8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职务。此前，还没有其他总 统试图解雇在任的美联储理事。华盛顿特区联邦地区法院法官去年9月作出裁决，暂时阻止特朗普解除 库克职务，并随后得到哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的支持。 当日辩论主要内容之一是，库克任现职以前在住房抵 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 #海外政治 最高法院质疑解雇库克合法性，特朗普干预 美联储独立性连续受挫 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《四季度承压，一季度开门红——全 年和 12 月经济数据点评》 2026 年 01 月 22 日 证券分析师 芦哲 2026-01-19 《海外宏观与交易复盘：美联储主席 "生变"，降息预期继续回调》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：美国最高法院对特朗普诉库克案举行的口头辩论结果显示， 多数大法官对特朗普的解雇行为的合法性表达了质疑，认为特朗普以涉 嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联储理事库克不属于《联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The case regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by former President Trump represents a significant confrontation over the balance of power between the presidency and the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential long-term implications for U.S. economic policy [2][9]. Group 1: Case Background - The Supreme Court is hearing arguments for the first time since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913 regarding a president's attempt to dismiss an official [2]. - Trump's dismissal of Cook was based on allegations of "mortgage fraud," which Cook denied, stating that the actions occurred before her tenure at the Federal Reserve [4]. - The case has progressed through lower courts, with a district court ruling that Trump's actions violated constitutional due process, leading to Cook's continued tenure [5]. Group 2: Legal Arguments - Key issues in the Supreme Court hearing include whether pre-appointment behavior can justify dismissal, whether Cook's actions constitute "fraud" or "innocent mistakes," and whether presidential dismissal decisions require judicial review [6]. - The Deputy Attorney General argued that the president has the authority to determine dismissal reasons without due process, while Cook's legal team contended that her actions were not fraudulent and that the government's stance threatens the Federal Reserve's independence [6]. Group 3: Judicial Perspectives - Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism towards the government's position, with concerns that it could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and allow for arbitrary dismissals based on trivial or unverifiable claims [7]. - The justices highlighted the importance of due process in dismissals, questioning the validity of using social media for such announcements [7]. Group 4: Implications of the Ruling - The outcome of the case will have profound implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for presidential overreach in monetary policy [10][11]. - A ruling in favor of Cook would reinforce the boundaries of presidential power over the Federal Reserve, while a ruling in favor of Trump could jeopardize the traditional independence of the central bank, potentially leading to increased economic volatility [10].

特朗普表示，他已锁定接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选。但在周三于瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛向世界领导人发表演讲后，他在接受采访 时，拒绝透露具体是谁。 特朗普的经济顾问凯文·哈塞特曾被视为可能的替代人选，但特朗普选择让他留任现职。其他可能的人选还包括凯文·沃什、克里斯托弗·沃勒和里克·里德。 特朗普持续批评鲍威尔并威胁要解雇这位美联储主席，这在过去已经引发了华尔街和国会山的担忧。最近，包括特朗普所在政党成员在内的参议员们在司法 部对鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，表达了担忧。 特朗普当天发表的演讲冗长且漫无边际，他在演讲中攻击了国内外的政治对手，并最终排除了为了获得格陵兰岛而对北约盟友采取军事行动的可能性。 特朗普在采访中反复抨击鲍威尔，指责他拒绝更大幅度地降息，以及在经济数据持续向好时"惊慌失措"。鲍威尔定于今年夏天不再担任美联储主席一职，届 时特朗普将挑选继任者。特朗普不仅因利率问题攻击鲍威尔，还质疑美联储总部一项耗资25亿美元的翻新工程。 这引发了司法部对鲍威尔的调查，鲍威尔对此抨击称该调查毫无根据。在两人持续交锋之际，特朗普告诉媒体："我可以说我们已经把继任人选从三人缩小 到了两人，而且在我心里，大概可 ...

特朗普最近在达沃斯论坛上放话："如果鲍威尔在美联储主席任期结束后继续留任，他的日子不会好 过。 "这番威胁背后，是一场因利率政策分歧引发的权力大战。 2026年1月9日，美国司法部向美联储主席鲍威尔发出传票，针对美联储总部翻修工程预算超支25亿美元 一事展开调查。 鲍威尔直指这是政治报复，只因为他没有按照特朗普要求大幅降息。 这场看似普通的调查，揭开了特朗普与鲍威尔之间积累已久的矛盾。 表面上看，这是一场关于政府开支的审计纠纷。 美联储总部翻新项目确实出现超支，预算从最初的19 亿美元涨至25亿美元，增加了7亿美元。 但实质是特朗普试图利用司法手段，逼迫鲍威尔在利率政策上让步。 特朗普多次公开表示希望降息至 1%，而当前利率维持在4.3%左右。 鲍威尔在2025年6月的国会听证会上就明确表示"不急于降息"，强调需要更多数据确认通胀已受控制。 这一立场与特朗普期望的刺激经济政策背道而驰。 特朗普曾在北约峰会现场抱怨："幸运的是，他很快就要离任了，因为我认为他做得很糟糕。 "如今， 随着鲍威尔主席任期将在2026年5月结束，这场权力博弈进入白热化阶段。 特朗普对低利率的执着源于其经济连任战略。 在他的逻辑中，降低 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.08% at 4116.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.7% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index gained 0.37% to close at 26585.06 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.11% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.31%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2504.514 million HKD[1] International Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a framework agreement regarding Greenland, retracting the threat of tariffs on eight European countries, which had previously been set to take effect on February 1[1][13] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed anticipation for a quick meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, indicating ongoing discussions about the U.S.-China economic agreement[1][13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.21%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.16% to 6875.62 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18%[1] - In China, the GDP growth rate for Q4 was reported at 4.5%, slightly below the expected 4.8%[18] - China's industrial output for December increased by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.8%[18]

Group 1: Greenland Island Situation - The U.S. has no intention of using "excessive force" to acquire Greenland, as stated by Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos [2] - Trump announced the postponement of tariffs on eight European countries originally set to take effect on February 1 [2] - A cooperation framework regarding Greenland and the Arctic has been agreed upon with NATO Secretary-General, benefiting the U.S. and all NATO member countries, indicating a temporary easing of U.S.-Europe trade tensions [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Domestic Policy - Trump indicated a narrowed selection for the next Federal Reserve Chair to "two or three" candidates, suggesting a preference for a style similar to former Chair Alan Greenspan [3] - Potential candidates mentioned include Rick Reed and Kevin Walsh, while current NEC Director Hassett is likely to remain in his position [3] - Tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve are highlighted by his threats regarding Powell's future and the Supreme Court's debate on Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [3] Group 3: U.S. Withdrawal from WHO - The U.S. officially withdrew from the World Health Organization on January 22, following an executive order signed by Trump, marking a significant shift in its role in global public health governance [4] Group 4: Rising National Debt - The U.S. national debt reached $38.4 trillion as of January 9, increasing at an average rate of over $71,000 per second over the past year [5] - Approximately $2.25 trillion is projected to be added to the national debt from January 17, 2025, to January 15, 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt despite claims that tariff revenues could cover interest payments [5] - The Trump administration faces challenges regarding domestic economic issues, including Federal Reserve independence and fiscal sustainability, which will continue to influence market dynamics and global relations [5]

Group 1 - The current trading price of COMEX silver is reported at 91.81 USD/oz, down 1.23% from the opening price of 92.80 USD/oz, with a high of 92.94 USD/oz and a low of 90.68 USD/oz, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - March silver futures show a clear technical advantage for bulls, with the next upward target being a closing price breakthrough of the key resistance level at 100.00 USD/oz; bears aim to push prices below the strong support level of 85.00 USD/oz [2] - The first resistance level is at the historical high of 95.78 USD/oz, followed by 96.00 USD/oz; the next support levels are today's low of 92.115 USD/oz and then 91.00 USD/oz [2] Group 2 - The attendance of key figures such as Cook and Powell at the hearing highlights the seriousness of the case, indicating concerns within the Federal Reserve system about potential political interference if Trump wins [2] - Cook emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in setting key interest rates based on evidence and independent judgment, which is crucial for fulfilling its mandate of price stability and full employment [2]

智通财经1月22日讯（编辑 马兰）美国最高法院周三听取了特朗普罢免库克案的口头辩论，期间，大法 官们表现出支持库克留任美联储理事的隐晦态度，被市场视为美联储独立性得到司法捍卫的信号之一。 去年8月，特朗普解雇了美联储理事库克，原因是库克在贷款文件中作虚假陈述，犯有抵押贷款欺诈 罪。然而库克立刻反驳了这一指控，坚称自己没有任何不当行为，并起诉了特朗普。 周三的听证会结束后，有人总结称在近两个小时的时间内，没有一名大法官对特朗普罢免库克的论点表 示理解。许多大法官似乎更关心法院将如何支持库克，而不是"是否会支持她"；以及法院将以多快的速 度解决她所面临的诉讼。 大法官还指出，特朗普罢免库克不仅对央行及其独立性有更大的影响，而且对更广泛的政府任命官员也 有影响。 Sauer表示，解雇库克会导致市场崩盘的担忧被夸大了，并指出总统解雇库克后的三个交易日内，市场 依然保持稳定。 此外，Sauer还被要求解释库克贷款文件伪造系无意的错误，并不构成特朗普罢免库克的理由一事。 Sauer强调，库克虽然只是犯了错误，但这个错误十分严重。 种种迹象来看，美国最高法院的大法官们并不认可特朗普罢免库克的原因，目前正在努力思考如何处理 ...

今日周四(1月22日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于91.95一线下方，今日开盘于93.06美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报91.83美元/盎司，下跌1.30%，最高触及93.10美元/盎司，最低下探90.79美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 白银日线图显示其整体维持上行倾向，但此前抛物线式上涨动能已出现停滞，相对强弱指标(RSI)已脱 离超买区域，并显示出背离信号。 尽管如此，空头尚未完全摆脱困境，空头必须首先突破90.00美元关口，才能进一步挑战1月15日触及的 近期周期低点86.45美元。若86.45美元支撑失守，白银价格可能跌向20日简单移动均线所在的80.63美元 水平。 如果鲍威尔留任，也将阻止特朗普在美联储委员会获得另一个提名机会。除非现任理事中有人被选为下 一任主席，否则白宫将不得不利用目前由理事斯蒂芬.米兰占据的席位，来安插特朗普在美联储的人 选。 目前市场将首先关注最终人选的身份及其首次政策表态，任何强化或削弱美联储独立性的信号都将引发 美元剧烈波动。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 特朗普对鲍威尔的去留决定表现出某种漠然。他表示："我们接受既定事实，如果选 ...