石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-18 成本端指引不明确，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、7月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3628元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨11元/吨，涨幅 0.3%；持仓226709手，环比上涨1229手，成交185709手，环比上升77446手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3660—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3630元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主。目前原油价格震荡运行，强现实、 弱预期的格局导致市场缺乏明确趋势，对沥青而言成本端方向指引有限。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱 格局延续，库存处于低位，市场矛盾相对不突出，现货端观望情绪较为浓厚。往前看沥青供需两端均存在增长预 期，需要关注库存趋势的变化情况。 策略 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | -- ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-18 延续基本面交易，聚烯烃弱稳为主 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-65元/吨（-11），LL 华东基差为-25元/吨（-31）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为-208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润 为301.8元/吨（+56.9）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为-672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 现货升贴水长期难涨 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-8.95 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨至22110元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至20元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨60元/吨至22030元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-60元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨70元/吨至 22070元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于-20元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-17沪锌主力合约开于21975元/吨，收于22130元/吨，较前一交易日上涨115元/吨，全天交易日 成交77512手，较前一交易日减少11957手，全天交易日持仓67223手，较前一交易日减少11088手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22170元/吨，最低点达到21970元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-17，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.35万吨，较上周同期增加0.32万吨。截止2025-07-17，LME 锌库存为121475吨，较上一交易日增加125吨。 市场分析 现货市场方 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-18 供应偏紧预期增强，郑棉期价强势上冲 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约14250元/吨，较前一日变动+260元/吨，幅度+1.86%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15316元/吨，较前一日变动+101元/吨，现货基差CF09+1066，较前一日变动-159；3128B棉全国均价15354 元/吨，较前一日变动+82元/吨，现货基差CF09+1104，较前一日变动-178。 近期市场资讯，据巴西当地行业机构数据，截至7月12日，巴西新棉收获进度约13.6%，较近五年均值低5.6个百分 点。价格方面，受巴西棉花丰产影响，其国内棉价承压走弱，但仍高于国际棉价。具体来看，16日巴西现货棉价 为73.83美分/磅，较前一日下跌0.63%，处于近两个月次低位置。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价强势上涨。国际方面，7月USDA供需报告上调全球棉花产量及期末库存，调整方向偏空。目前来看 今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于 美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较此前明显改善，USDA如预期上调美棉 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is small and in line with market expectations. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is at a relatively high historical level, and the weather in the main production areas is favorable, with no significant impact expected in the near term. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, supply capacity is increasing due to more auctions and high - temperature storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions continue, but the transaction premium and volume are decreasing [4] Group 3: Summary by Section (Market News and Important Data) Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 3029 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+1.75%); the rapeseed meal 2509 contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+2.49%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 30, 50, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: Brazil's expected 2025 soybean export volume is 1.1 billion tons, an increase of about 130 million tons year - on - year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised to 49.5 million tons [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The corn 2509 contract closed at 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.13%); the corn starch 2509 contract closed at 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and in Jilin, the corn starch spot price also remained unchanged [3] - Market News: As of July 12, 2025, the first - season corn harvest progress in Brazil is 98.3%. Brazil's corn exports from July 1 - 11 are slower than last year [3] Group 4: Summary by Section (Market Analysis) Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small. US soybean good - to - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, with rising soybean meal inventory and high physical inventory of feed enterprises [2] Corn - In China, corn supply is increasing due to more auctions and storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions show a change in market sentiment [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-18 成本持续推升，黑色再度上涨 钢材：成本持续推升，黑色再度上涨 市场分析 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量回升，铁矿震荡上行 期现货方面：昨日钢材偏强运行，热卷期货主力合约录得新高。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般，现货价 格跟随幅度有限，基差继续收缩，期现入场，刚需较少，现货成交9.48万吨。 供需与逻辑：本周钢联数据显示，螺纹产量环比减少，需求淡季走弱，库存小幅累库。热卷产量环比下降，库存 环比去化，表观需求微增。整体来看，钢材基本面矛盾不大，略优于季节性表现，在保持一定利润水平下，原料 支撑依然有效。关注基差修复、政策兑现、海外关税及套保资金动向。 策略 单边：震荡 供需与逻辑：本周铁水产量回升，铁水处于同期中高位，铁矿消费韧性表现尚可，港口库存小幅增长，大口径库 存微降。受宏观情绪与基本面强支撑叠加影响，短期铁矿石价格出现反弹，长期来看，铁矿石依旧呈现供需偏宽 松预期，后期持续关注淡季铁水产量情况及铁矿石库存变化。 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 ...

原油日报 | 2025-07-18 库尔德油田遇袭，但市场影响有限 市场要闻与重要数据 1、\t纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.16美元，收于每桶67.54美元，涨幅为1.75%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.00美元，收于每桶69.52美元，涨幅为1.46%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.04%，报524元/ 桶。 2、 印尼能源部数据显示，截至7月16日，印尼今年生物柴油消费量已达742万千升。全球最大棕榈油生产国今年 将生物柴油强制掺混比例从35%上调至40%，以降低对进口柴油的依赖。(来源：Bloomberg） 油价区间震荡，中期空头配置 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 原油日报 | 2025-07-18 3、\t根据美国近期对军事行动造成的破坏所做的评估，上月遭美国打击的伊朗三处核浓缩设施中，一处基本被摧 毁，该设施的相关工作因此大幅受阻。但另外两处受损并不严重，破坏程度可能仅达到"若伊朗有意，核浓缩活动 或在未来数月内恢复"的水平。这项评估是特朗普政府在设施遇袭后持续追踪伊朗核计划状态的工作之一，近日已 向部分美国议员、国防部官员及盟国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [13] - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4921 - 4989. [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are neutral. In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, both lower than the historical average. [7] - **Basis**: On July 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 25 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [10] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream start - up rates, profits, and costs, and their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [17][18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the futures price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC in June - July 2025, including indicators such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of PVC from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025. [26][27][29][30][31][32][34][35][37][38] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC from 2018 to 2025. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC from 2018 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data related to PVC demand. [44][45][47][49][54][55][58] - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 to 2025. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import. [64][65]

油料日报 | 2025-07-18 宽松供需承压，聚焦天气政策与新季节奏 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4200.00元/吨，较前日变化+21.00元/吨，幅度+0.50%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+100，较前日变化-21，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货继续小幅上涨，当前国产大豆供应维持宽松态势，产量预期增加且陈豆库存压力仍存，同时需求端 表现疲软。临近8月1日关税节点带来的进口成本不确定性及国际出口协议对市场情绪的影响，是当前的主要影 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-18 需求表现疲软，市场氛围平淡 3、\t2025年8月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4413元/吨，跌44元/吨，丁烷4264元/吨，跌43元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG市场氛围较为平淡，昨日现货价格局部小跌，盘面则维持弱势震荡态势。站在基本面的角度，LPG整体供需格 局保持宽松，海外供应充裕，美国与中东供应均呈现增长态势，其中美国在出口终端扩建项目投产后，出口增长 空间进一步打开，进而压制FEI等地区价格。传递到国内市场，7月到港量再度攀升，华东港口库存高企，在国内 燃烧端需求处于淡季、化工需求受利润因素抑制的背景下，市场缺乏上行驱动。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 市场分析 1、\t7月17日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4640；东北市场，4190-4380；华北市场，4425-4650；华东市场，4380-4650； 沿江市场，4520-4610；西北市场，3900-4250 ...