Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - In the short term, soybean and sugar futures show strong performance due to weather speculation and macro - factors. However, mid - term weather forecasts indicate expected precipitation in Argentina in February, and as the harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect selling pressure, limiting the upside potential of the domestic market [10] Directory Summaries 1. Basis Data - On January 28th, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Dalian was 438, down 16; in Tianjin it was 398, down 16; in Zhangjiagang it was 338, down 16; in Dongguan it was 338, down 16; in Zhanjiang it was 368, down 16; and in Fangcheng it was 358, down 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 171, down 16. The M3 - 5 was 298, down 7, and RN5 - 9 was - 12, up 10 [4] 2. Inventory Data - There is a chart about China's port soybean inventory in ten thousand tons, but specific data is not detailed from the text [5] 3.开机 and压榨情况 - There are charts about the operating rate (%) and soybean crushing volume (ten thousand tons) of major domestic oil mills, but specific data is not detailed from the text [8] 4. International Data - As of January 24th, according to CONAB, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 6.6% (last week 2.3%, last year 3.2%, five - year average 7%). As of January 21st, according to BACE, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 96.2%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 33% (last week 61%, last year 26%). Since January, the weather in Argentina has been dry, and the excellent - good rate of soybeans has declined. The weather will remain dry in the next two weeks [10] 5. Domestic Market Conditions - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The oil mill's crushing operation has recovered, but the downstream stocking sentiment is average, and the basis is weakly volatile [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

豆粕周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 阿根廷产区偏干 连粕震荡收敛 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨11.25收于1067.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.07%；豆粕05合约涨24收于2751元/吨，跌幅 0.88%；华南豆粕现货收于3100元/吨，较上周持平；菜 粕05合约跌20收于2235元/吨，跌幅0.89%；广西菜粕现 货跌20收于2430元/吨，跌幅0.82%。 ⚫ 美豆止跌后震荡上涨，一是美国生柴政策即将发布预期 作用下，美豆油走强提振美豆；二是美豆出口销售进度 加快，对价格亦形成支撑；三是巴西 ...

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 全球植物油：供应端，USDA11 月预估 25/26 年度全球植物油增产放慢，其中 菜油增产幅度最大而棕油增产最小。需求端，各国生物柴油政策发力，在增强油脂 国内消费的同时缩紧了油脂出口，不过总需求依然同比增长。需求增幅大于供应增 幅，25/26 年度全球植物油期末库存及库销比均同比下降，供需继续收紧，对植物油 价格有支撑。后续全球油脂市场的不确定性将主要集中于南美大豆/印尼棕油产量和 各国生物柴油政策上，可能造成价格剧烈波动：一是 25/26 年度美豆及南美豆因为 天气炒作，印尼棕油因为种植园强征等原因导致产量下降，收紧供应。二是美国和 印尼利多植物油生柴需求的生柴政策能否成功落地。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询 业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 棕油：供应端，目前市场对 2026 年东南亚棕油产量预估较为乐观，印尼两国均 同比增产。需求端，印度人口增长带来的刚性需求与印尼 B40 计划支撑，2025 年 产地棕油出口及国内消费有望维持强劲。供需双强下，25/26 年度印马库存预计都 同比下滑，马来库存历史中位，印尼库存则是更紧张的历史低位。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract opening at 15,960.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 16,260.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.20% increase [1] - The current market for natural rubber shows a strong upward trend, with institutions suggesting a slightly strong fundamental outlook despite speculative pressures [1] - The impact of weather conditions in major Asian rubber-producing regions is causing short-term market disturbances, particularly due to Typhoon "Jianyu" affecting Hainan's rubber industry [2] Group 2 - Hainan Rubber (601118) reported damage from Typhoon "Jianyu," with approximately 0.28 million mu of rubber plantation rendered unusable and an estimated reduction of 0.25 million tons in dry rubber output for the year [2] - The overall supply impact from the disaster is considered limited, but weather remains a critical variable until the end of the peak production season [2] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain strong as it approaches the end of the year, with seasonal trends indicating a tendency for prices to rise [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn planting is completed, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino-US tariffs, the price continues to decline, and weather factors may be a potential market driver. China has adjusted tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high. The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions, with short - term stability in the north and potential tight supply in North China. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream demand, with inventory increasing and limited short - term downward space for the 09 contract [3][4][5]. - In the short term, domestic 09 corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn due to tight supply. For trading strategies, a light - position short - term long on 09 corn can be considered, and for the spread between 09 corn and starch, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Data**: On July 16, 2025, different corn and corn starch futures contracts showed various closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2293, down 2 with a decline of 0.09%, and its trading volume decreased by 15.37% to 373,438, while the open interest increased by 1.77% to 1,054,601. There are also data on basis, spreads (including corn inter - term, starch inter - term, and cross - variety spreads) [2]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajisheng Chemical, and Zhucheng Xingmao are provided, along with their price changes and basis. The same goes for starch in different companies like Longfeng, COFCO, and Jiali [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is affected by planting progress, tariff policies, and potential weather speculation. In China, the northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, the Northeast corn spot is stable, the supply in North China is tight, and the wheat - corn substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprises have high inventory. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, but there is a possibility of a rebound in North China corn [3][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has rebounded. The starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 1346,000 tons, a monthly increase of 2.83% and a year - on - year increase of 26.27%. The starch price depends on corn prices and downstream stocking. The short - term downward space for the 09 starch contract is limited [5]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option strategies are proposed, suggesting that enterprises with spot positions close out short positions on corn call options, or short - term investors can try bottom - accumulating purchases [10]. Part 4: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contracts [11][13][17].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the apple industry, focusing on the current market conditions, inventory levels, and future projections for apple production and pricing. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The apple futures market is currently lacking a clear trend, with the market in a transitional phase between old and new apple inventories. The focus is on the impact of new apple production and quality on future pricing for the 2025-2026 season [1][2][4]. 2. **Inventory Levels**: The inventory levels for apples are not considered high compared to historical data. Although there is a noticeable decrease in inventory from the previous year, the overall inventory levels over the past seven years have not shown significant changes [2][4]. 3. **Impact of Seasonal Fruits**: The introduction of seasonal fruits, such as lychee and watermelon, has significantly impacted apple consumption and pricing. This seasonal competition is expected to slow down the inventory depletion rate [3][9]. 4. **Price Support from Inventory**: The current inventory levels provide some support for apple prices, despite a gradual slowdown in inventory depletion. The market is not expected to see drastic price movements due to these factors [4][5]. 5. **Trade Dynamics**: Traders are not in a hurry to sell their inventory as the current levels are manageable. They are looking for better sales margins and are cautious about pricing strategies [10][11]. 6. **Weather Impact on Production**: Adverse weather conditions, such as storms and hail, can significantly affect apple production, particularly during critical growth phases. Recent weather events have raised concerns about potential localized production decreases [6][8]. 7. **Future Price Projections**: The expected price range for apples is projected to be between 7600 to 8000, with current market prices reflecting this range. The market is advised to adopt cautious trading strategies, including options trading to mitigate risks [12][13]. Other Important Insights - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions and their potential impact on apple production and pricing. - There is a suggestion for traders to consider flexible options strategies to navigate the current market volatility and potential extreme scenarios [13]. - The overall sentiment in the market is one of caution, with traders advised to remain vigilant regarding both inventory levels and external market influences [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the domestic soybean market showing obvious inventory accumulation characteristics [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to global supply - demand expectations and potential buying support, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [10]. - After continuous increases, the upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may experience a short - term shock and decline [17]. - The CBOT corn futures are rising, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downside space, with the spot market being relatively weak in the short - term and the futures market oscillating at the bottom [23][25]. - The pig price is expected to fluctuate as the supply side remains relatively stable [29]. - Peanuts are expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock, but there is a potential for a medium - to - long - term decline due to the expected increase in planting area [33]. - Egg prices are expected to strengthen seasonally, and the September contract is expected to rise after reaching the bottom [41]. - Apples are expected to have a short - term oscillating trend due to low supply and weak demand before the new - season apples are on the market [44]. - Cotton is expected to have limited upward space in the short - term, with the market influenced by factors such as potential quota issuance and trade - tariff uncertainties [50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1009.24 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.07% to $278.1 per short ton [2]. - **相关资讯**: Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.19 million tons, and soybean meal export forecast is 225,000 tons. The US June 2025 soybean crush was 185.709 million bushels. As of July 10, US soybean export inspection was 147,000 tons. As of July 11, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52% [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has loose supply and demand. The US new - crop soybean export is slow, and Brazil and Argentina have high production with export pressure. The domestic soybean market has high arrivals and crush, showing inventory accumulation [4]. - **策略建议**: Close previous long positions and wait and see; enter a small - scale RM91 reverse spread; wait and see for options [6]. Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.26 (1.60%) to 16.56 cents per pound [7]. - **重要咨讯**: In the second half of June 2025, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks of July decreased by 21.66% year - on - year [8][9]. - **逻辑分析**: Raw sugar is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar passively [10]. - **持仓建议**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; wait and see for spreads; use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12]. Oils and Fats - **外盘情况**: CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.64% to 54.36 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.92% to 4186 ringgit per ton [14]. - **相关资讯**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The US June soybean crush was higher than expected, and the soybean oil inventory reached a five - month low. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts increased [15][16]. - **逻辑分析**: The upward momentum of oils and fats has weakened, and they may decline in the short - term. Palm oil is in the process of production and inventory accumulation, and domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory accumulation [17]. - **交易策略**: Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and decline in the short - term; consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread; wait and see for options [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December main contract rising 0.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel [23]. - **重要资讯**: CBOT corn futures rose slightly, supported by short - covering and bargain - hunting. Brazil's July corn export forecast is 4.6 million tons. The US corn good - to - excellent rate is 74%, and the North Port's purchase price is stable [24]. - **逻辑分析**: US corn is oscillating at the bottom with limited downside space. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot market is relatively weak, while the futures market oscillates at the bottom [25]. - **交易策略**: The December CBOT corn is oscillating at the bottom, and consider short - term long positions for the September contract; close the long - corn and short - September - corn spread; consider a high - selling strategy for options with spot positions [26][27][28]. Pigs - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating, with stable prices in different regions. Piglet and sow prices increased slightly. The national average pork price in the wholesale market rose by 0.7% [29]. - **逻辑分析**: Pig prices are expected to oscillate as the supply side remains stable [29]. - **策略建议**: Wait and see for single - side trading; enter a LH91 positive spread; wait and see for options [30]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are reported, and peanut oil factory purchase prices are relatively stable. Peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased. Peanut meal sales are slow [32]. - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is light. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - peanut contract is expected to have a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - to - long - term decline [33]. - **交易策略**: Consider short - selling the 10 - peanut contract at high prices and wait and see for now; wait and see for spreads; sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [34][35][36]. Eggs - **重要资讯**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas are stable. The national in - production laying - hen inventory increased in June. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory decreased. The egg - farming profit is negative [38][39][40][41]. - **交易逻辑**: Egg prices are stable at the current level and are expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is expected to rise after the plum - rain season [41]. - **交易策略**: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [41]. Apples - **重要资讯**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the off - season sales speed slowed down. Apple import and export volumes changed. The spot price is stable, and the storage - merchant profit increased [43][44]. - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the off - season, with little supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44]. - **交易策略**: The AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider a low - buying and high - selling strategy; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [48][45]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose, with the main contract rising 0.46 (0.68%) to 68.57 cents per pound [46]. - **重要资讯**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is 13.6%, slower than last year. US cotton growth progress is slightly lagging, but the good - to - excellent rate is high, and the production is expected to increase. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production forecast is 3.938 million tons [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**: Cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels, but the market expects potential quota issuance. The trade - tariff issue has uncertainties. The upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be limited [50]. - **交易策略**: US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short - term with limited upward space; wait and see for spreads; sell put options [51].

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]