2025 年的 AI 芯片市场正处于一个微妙且关键的转折点。 随着 Anthropic 大规模采购超过 1GW 的 TPU，谷歌彻底撕下"云服务商"的面具，正式变身为一家对外出售高性能芯片与系统的商用芯片供应商。 当 OpenAI 可以靠"威胁采购"获得 30% GPU 折扣、Anthropic 用 TPU 训练出超越 GPT-4 的模型、谷歌愿意开放软件生态并提供金融杠杆——英伟达 75% 毛利率的神话，也开始出现裂缝。 对于英伟达来说，那个曾经最大的客户谷歌，如今变成了最懂的对手。 谷歌在主动进攻 长期以来，TPU 一直像谷歌搜索算法一样，是深藏内部的"核武级"技术。但根据 SemiAnalysis 的供应链信息，这一策略已经出现根本性逆转。 最典型的案例来自 Anthropic：其将部署超过 100 万颗 TPUv7 "Ironwood"，其中： 这意味着谷歌正在用"混合销售"的方式，将最先进的算力系统向外界全面开放。除了 Anthropic，Meta、SSI、xAI 等一线 AI 实验室均在考虑采购 TPU。 英伟达则首次呈现出明显的防御姿态，其财务团队甚至罕见地发布长文回应"循环经济融资"质疑，可见 ...

Core Insights - Google's self-developed AI chip TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) is gaining market attention, potentially reshaping the AI chip market landscape and achieving breakthroughs in large model development [2] - Google is reportedly marketing its TPU to clients, with Meta considering a multi-billion dollar investment in TPUs for data center construction, indicating a significant strategic shift for Google [2] Group 1: Production and Revenue Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's latest research indicates that supply chain surveys suggest a significant increase in TPU production, which could lead to substantial revenue growth for Alphabet [3] - The firm's analysts raised the 2027 TPU production forecast from approximately 3 million units to 5 million units, a 67% increase, and the 2028 forecast from about 3.2 million units to 7 million units, a 120% increase [3][4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The financial impact of expanding TPU sales is considerable, with Morgan Stanley estimating that selling 500,000 TPU chips could generate approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.4 in earnings per share (EPS) for Google in 2027 [4] - Although most of the TPU production growth may still be allocated to Google's own operations and Google Cloud Platform (GCP), the production scale of 12 million TPUs over two years highlights the potential for commercializing TPU sales [5] Group 3: Market Positioning - Morgan Stanley views the trends as early signals of Google's TPU sales strategy, as the company intensifies efforts to capitalize on the industry's demand for advanced AI computing power [5] - Considering NVIDIA's expected shipment of around 8 million GPUs in 2027, Google's forecast of selling 500,000 to 1 million TPUs annually appears reasonable if production capacity allows [5]

Core Insights - AI chip company Qingwei Intelligent has completed over 2 billion RMB in Series C financing, led by Beijing state-owned enterprise Jingneng Group [1][2] - The financing round included participation from various investors such as Beichuang Investment, Jiantou Investment, and others, with continued investment from existing shareholders [1] - The funds will be primarily allocated to three areas: next-generation reconfigurable chip development, implementation of intelligent computing scenarios, and recruitment of high-end talent [2] Company Strategy - Qingwei Intelligent has initiated preparations for an IPO, aiming to become the first listed benchmark enterprise in the domestic "non-GPU" new architecture chip sector [2]

硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 在AI芯片的激烈竞赛中，谷歌的自研TPU正显露出挑战现有市场格局的巨大潜力。 该行基于供应链端的最新排查，将谷歌TPU在2027年和2028年的产量预测大幅上调。2027年的预测从约300万块上调至约500万块，增幅约67%。 谷歌TPU若开启"外销"模式，将为其开辟新的巨大收入来源。报告测算， 每销售50万块TPU芯片，就有可能在2027年为谷歌增加约130亿美元的收入和0.40美元 的每股收益（EPS） 。 01 供应链信号 2027-2028年产量预期翻倍 根据大摩亚洲半导体分析师Charlie Chan的监测，供应链端传出了明确的TPU订单增加信号。基于此，大摩对未来的TPU供应量进行了修正： 2027年TPU产量预测 ：从此前的约300万块，大幅上调至 约500万块 ，增幅高达约 67% 。 2028年TPU产量预测 ：从此前的约320万块，飙升至 约700万块 ，增幅更是达到了惊人的 120% 。 报告指出，这意味着仅在2027至2028两年间，谷歌就将获得 1200万块 TPU的供应，而相比之下，过去4年的总量仅为790万块。两年内的产量激增，预示 ...

最近谷歌用其TPU基础设施，训练出了最强大模型Gemini 3，在ChatGPT三周年之际，这一事件具有里程碑的意义，它意味着，用英伟达GPU在微软Azure 上训练出来的GPT系列前沿大模型的范式，正在被打破，而且，大模型、云和AI芯片，是在谷歌内部浑然一体的。 这一事件，足以影响对整个AI格局的判断。我们知道，三年前ChatGPT发布之时，最大的受益者是微软，它的股价暴涨，市值达到全球第一。接着是英伟 达，它凭借GPU的CUDA税，股价一路上扬，成为史上第一家市值超过5万亿美元的公司。第三家就是OpenAI，它的市值也超过了5000亿美元，成为史上 最有价值的非上市企业。 但这一切，正在被TPU改变。当谷歌上扬时，压力传递到英伟达、微软、以及大量接受英伟达投资并采购GPU的其他企业，如甲骨文和其他新云企业。对 OpenAI的直接影响，是市场上普遍开始更看好TPU+Gemini在性能和成本上的长期竞争优势 ，要胜过OpenAI。而OpenAI在其星门计划中的巨额投资，在 Gemini的压力之下，其商业可行性和可持续性，也受到市场的质疑。 不是AI恐惧，而是OpenAI恐惧 难怪谷歌垂直整合的AI战略，其长期 ...

大摩预计，谷歌TPU产量在2027年和2028年将分别达到500万和700万块，较此前预期分别增长67%、120%。而这一产量激增可能预示着谷歌将开启 TPU芯片的直接对外销售。更具冲击力的是，报告测算每50万片TPU外销，便有望为谷歌带来130亿美元的额外收入和0.40美元的每股收益。 在AI芯片的激烈竞赛中，谷歌的自研TPU正显露出挑战现有市场格局的巨大潜力。 摩根士丹利12月1日发布的最新研报显示，谷歌自研AI芯片——TPU（Tensor Processing Unit）供应链的不确定性正在消退，未来两年产量预期呈爆炸 式增长，这或许是谷歌准备向第三方大规模销售TPU芯片的早期信号。 该行基于供应链端的最新排查，将谷歌TPU在2027年和2028年的产量预测大幅上调。2027年的预测从约300万块上调至约500万块，增幅约67%。 谷歌TPU若开启"外销"模式，将为其开辟新的巨大收入来源。报告测算， 每销售50万块TPU芯片，就有可能在2027年为谷歌增加约130亿美元的收入和 0.40美元的每股收益（EPS） 。 供应链信号：2027-2028年产量预期翻倍 根据大摩亚洲半导体分析师Charlie C ...

Core Insights - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape in the competitive AI chip sector [1] Supply Chain and Production Forecast - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that uncertainties surrounding Google's TPU supply chain are diminishing, with expectations for explosive growth in production over the next two years [1] - The production forecast for Google's TPU has been significantly raised for 2027 and 2028, with the 2027 estimate increasing from approximately 3 million units to about 5 million units, representing a growth of around 67% [1] Revenue Potential - If Google initiates a "third-party sales" model for TPU, it could open up a substantial new revenue stream [1] - The report estimates that for every 500,000 TPU chips sold, Google could potentially add approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 in earnings per share (EPS) by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape, with expectations of explosive growth in production over the next two years, indicating a possible shift towards large-scale sales to third parties [1][3][4]. Supply Chain Signals - The uncertainty surrounding the TPU supply chain is diminishing, with a substantial increase in production forecasts for 2027 and 2028. The production estimate for 2027 has been raised from approximately 3 million units to about 5 million units, a 67% increase [1][3]. - For 2028, the production forecast has surged from around 3.2 million units to approximately 7 million units, reflecting a remarkable 120% increase [3][4]. Financial Implications - If Google initiates an external sales strategy for TPU, it could open up a significant new revenue stream. Each sale of 500,000 TPU chips could potentially add around $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 to earnings per share (EPS) in 2027 [1][4]. - The report estimates that over the two years from 2027 to 2028, Google could secure 12 million TPU units, compared to a total of 7.9 million units over the past four years, indicating a rapid expansion in AI hardware investment and positioning [1][4]. Strategic Shift - The increase in TPU production suggests a strategic shift for Google from a "self-use" model to directly competing with major players in the AI chip market. This transition could position Google as a hardware seller rather than just a consumer and service provider [4].

Core Insights - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape as supply chain uncertainties are diminishing [1][4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a substantial increase in TPU production forecasts for 2027 and 2028, suggesting a strategic shift towards external sales [2][6] Supply Chain Signals - Morgan Stanley's analysis reveals a clear increase in TPU orders, leading to a revised forecast of 12 million TPUs for 2027-2028, compared to a total of 7.9 million over the past four years [2][4] - The anticipated production surge indicates Google's accelerated investment and expansion in AI hardware [2] Production Forecasts - The production forecast for 2027 has been raised from approximately 3 million to about 5 million units, reflecting a 67% increase [6] - For 2028, the forecast has jumped from around 3.2 million to 7 million units, marking an impressive 120% increase [6] Strategic Shift - The new production data suggests that Google's previous supply constraints may no longer be an issue, allowing for a potential shift from an internal-use model to competing directly in the AI chip market [4] - The projected production of 12 million TPUs over two years indicates the potential for Google to sell more TPUs through its Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and as standalone products [4] Financial Implications - Each sale of 500,000 TPU chips could generate approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 in earnings per share (EPS) for Google in 2027 [5][7] - Successful implementation of the TPU external sales strategy could significantly enhance Google's revenue and profit growth, potentially reshaping market valuations and the competitive landscape in the AI chip sector [7]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国投证券指出，电子和半导体行业呈现强劲发展态势。台积电计划在增建三座2纳米厂，以满足AI芯片 订单激增的需求，预计资本支出有望达到500亿美元，其中约70%用于先进制程的研发及扩产。半导体 设备国产化取得突破，上海芯上微装自主研发的首台350nm步进光刻机完成出厂调试，标志着我国在高 端半导体光刻设备领域实现关键突破。此外，谷歌正升级其AI芯片竞赛，Meta或从2027年开始采用谷 歌TPU，逐步摆脱对英伟达的依赖。消费电子领域，阿里夸克AI眼镜正式发布，采用全球量产最小的 AR光引擎，显示行业在微型化与高性能芯片集成方面持续创新。 科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（000685），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从科创板 市场中选取涉及半导体材料、设备、设计、制造等全产业链环节的50家相关上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映中国芯片产业核心领域上市公司证券的整体表现。指数重点覆盖数字芯片设计、半导体设备 和集成电路制造等关键技术领域，全面展现国内芯片产业链的发展动态与长期潜力。 ...