Core Insights - The AI data center chip market is experiencing rapid growth, but signs indicate a slowdown in growth rates [1] - The forecast for GPU and AI accelerator shipments is projected to reach $123 billion in 2024, $207 billion in 2025, and $286 billion by 2030 [1] - The annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 exceeds 250%, but is expected to decline to around 67% from 2024 to 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - AI infrastructure spending is expected to peak in 2026, with nearly all incremental spending driven by AI, before gradually declining towards 2030 [1] - Key growth drivers include the proliferation of AI applications, democratization of AI fine-tuning technologies, and the use of inference models that generate a large number of unused tokens [1] - The shift towards smaller specialized models is reducing the demand for AI computing power, alongside generational improvements in AI model efficiency, including optimized training datasets and advancements in foundational model design [1] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier in the market, but alternatives for GPUs are gaining attention, including Google's TPU, Huawei's Ascend series, Groq, and Cerebras commercial ASSPs [1] - AMD is making significant progress with its Instinct series GPUs through substantial software investments planned for 2024 [1]

Core Insights - The AI data center chip market is experiencing rapid growth, but signs indicate a slowdown in growth rates [1] - In 2024, the shipment value of GPUs and AI accelerators is projected to reach $123 billion, increasing to $207 billion in 2025, and $286 billion by 2030 [1] - The annual growth rate from 2022 to 2024 exceeds 250%, but is expected to decline to around 67% from 2024 to 2025 [1] - AI infrastructure spending is anticipated to peak in 2026, with nearly all incremental spending driven by AI, before gradually declining towards 2030 [1] Company Insights - NVIDIA remains the dominant supplier in the market [1] - Alternative GPU solutions are gaining market attention, including Google's TPU, custom ASIC chips, and commercial ASSP from Huawei, Groq, and Cerebras [1] - AMD is making significant progress with its Instinct series GPUs due to major software investments planned for 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia is planning to release a new GPU based on the Blackwell architecture as a response to the ban on the H20, which is based on the Hopper architecture [2][4] - Jefferies' analysis suggests that the US may impose a memory bandwidth limit of 1.7-1.8TB/s on GPUs, which could lead Nvidia to switch from HBM to GDDR6 for the downgraded H20 [3] - A report from Guangfa Overseas predicts that the new GPU, potentially named 6000D or B40, will be launched in early July and will feature GDDR7 with a bandwidth of approximately 1.7TB/s, significantly lower than H20's 4TB/s [3][4] Market Analysis - The expected shipment volume for the new GPU is projected to reach around 1 million units by the end of 2025, supported by NVLink and CUDA technologies [3] - Previous estimates for Huawei's Ascend series shipments in 2025 ranged from 700,000 to 850,000 units, with IDC reporting 640,000 units for 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3] Product Development - The rapid development and anticipated release of the Blackwell-based GPU within a few months of the H20 ban highlight Nvidia's agile design capabilities and collaboration with TSMC [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is planning to release a modified version of the H20 GPU, referred to as a "special version" for China, based on the Blackwell architecture instead of the original Hopper architecture [1]. Group 1: GPU Specifications and Market Impact - Jefferies analysis suggests that the US may impose a memory bandwidth limit of 1.7-1.8TB/s on GPUs, which could lead Nvidia to replace HBM memory with GDDR6 in the downgraded H20, potentially outperforming gaming GPUs like the RTX5090D [2]. - Another report from GF Securities indicates that the new GPU, possibly named 6000D or B40, is expected to be released in early July, featuring GDDR7 memory with a bandwidth of approximately 1.7TB/s, compared to H20's 4TB/s [3]. - The expected shipment volume for the B40 GPU is projected to reach around 1 million units by the end of 2025, supported by NVLink and CUDA technologies [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Historical Context - Prior to the ban on H20, there were indications that it would be discontinued in favor of a Blackwell-based special version, which was not fully prepared at the time of the ban [3]. - The rapid development and release of the new GPU can be attributed to Nvidia's established design framework and TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes, allowing for a quick turnaround following the H20 ban [3].

申请入围"中国IC独角兽" 半导体高质量发展创新成果征集 在当下中国汽车智驾产业的发展进程中，自研芯片成为一股不可忽视的力量。从市场份额数据来看，不同企业的自研芯片各有表现。盖世汽车研究院数据 显示，2024年上半年，英伟达Orin-X以近73万颗的装机量，占据35.9%市场份额，在国内智驾芯片市场仍占据重要地位。但中国本土企业也在奋力追赶， 不断抢占市场份额。其中，地平线、华为、黑芝麻智能、蔚来汽车等企业已推出多款具备国际竞争力的产品。这些芯片在算力、能效比、量产进度及生态 布局方面展现出差异化优势，逐步挑战英伟达Orin的统治地位。 地平线作为国内智驾科技领域的佼佼者，根据高工智能汽车研究院数据，2024年上半年凭借征程系列计算方案，以28.65%的份额位居市场第一，在自主 品牌乘用车前视一体机计算方案市场（L2ADAS）更是以33.73%的市场份额跃居首位。其征程家族产品覆盖低、中、高阶全场景智驾量产需求，累计出货 量已超600万套，并且已经赋能超80家生态伙伴推出成熟产品，超40家投入主机厂定点及量产项目，强大的市场影响力和广泛的客户基础，使其在市场竞 争中优势明显。 黑芝麻智能同样表现不俗，2022 ...

Core Insights - The global AI chip market is facing a significant crisis due to supply chain uncertainties, particularly affecting NVIDIA's H20 chip, which is crucial for China's AI industry [1] - Geopolitical tensions and deteriorating global trade conditions are exacerbating the already fragile supply chain, with multiple uncertainties looming over future supply plans [1] - The surge in demand for H20 chips from major Chinese tech companies has led to a severe supply-demand imbalance, prompting H3C to prioritize allocations to high-profit customers [1] Industry Overview - The rapid expansion of China's AI industry, driven by local players like DeepSeek, has triggered a rush for H20 chips among major tech firms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Huawei, and ByteDance [1] - H3C, as a key partner of NVIDIA in China, is working alongside other manufacturers like Inspur and Lenovo to support the country's AI computing infrastructure [2] - The anticipated shipment of H20 chips is projected to exceed 1 million units in 2024, generating over $12 billion in revenue for NVIDIA, highlighting the strategic importance of each chip in the ongoing tech competition [2] Competitive Landscape - Domestic alternatives such as Huawei's Ascend series and Cambricon's products are emerging, but their performance remains to be validated in the market [2] - Potential tightening of H20 export regulations by U.S. officials could pose further challenges to China's AI industry, emphasizing the need for robust domestic solutions [2]