Group 1: Dollar Cycle and Economic Impact - The dollar cycle reflects the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor portfolio adjustments, with a strong U.S. economy leading to dollar appreciation and increased capital inflows[1] - In 2025, the dollar is expected to enter a short-term correction due to the negative impact of Trump 2.0 on the U.S. economy, which may undermine investor confidence in the dollar[1] - The dollar's share in the international monetary system may decline as global economic multipolarity increases and countries diversify their reserve assets[1] Group 2: Economic and Inflation Forecasts - U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.9% in 2023, decreasing to 1.4% in 2025, while PCE inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.8%[2] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be 0.4% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2025, with CPI inflation expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2025[2] - The U.S. federal funds target rate is anticipated to be 5.33% in 2023, dropping to 4.00% by 2025[2] Group 3: Dollar Index and Its Influences - The dollar index, which is a weighted average of the dollar against six major currencies, has seen significant fluctuations, with a long-term upward trend since 2008[3] - The euro/dollar exchange rate, which accounts for nearly 60% of the dollar index, has a decisive influence on its movements, with a correlation of 0.7 to 0.8 with U.S.-Eurozone interest rate differentials[3] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 97 by the end of 2025 due to trade wars and narrowing economic growth differentials between the U.S. and Eurozone[3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Market risk preferences significantly affect capital flows, with a tendency for funds to return to dollar assets during risk-off periods, strengthening the dollar index[1] - The anticipated Trump 2.0 trade war may lead to a decrease in the allocation of dollar assets by international investors, exacerbating the dollar's depreciation[1] - The dollar's dominant position in international payments and reserves remains intact, despite fluctuations, with its share in global reserves projected to be 57.8% by 2024[1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

欧洲央行会议纪要：欧元区已逐步建立起对冲击的抵抗力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vujcic stated that the economic growth in the Eurozone is positive but slow [1] Economic Growth - The Eurozone is experiencing a gradual economic recovery, indicating resilience despite challenges [1] - Vujcic emphasized the importance of maintaining a supportive monetary policy to foster this growth [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's May Composite PMI preliminary value is reported at 49.5, which is below the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.4 [1]

欧元兑美元EUR/USD失守1.13，日内跌幅0.26%。 ...

欧洲央行管委兼西班牙央行行长Escriva：欧元近期升值让人感到意外。 ...

欧洲STOXX 600指数初步收跌0.01%，报553.92点。 欧元区STOXX 50指数初步收涨0.04%，报5456.63点。 富时泛欧绩优300指数初步收跌0.03%，报2197.85点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing its 2% inflation target, driven by a stronger euro and declining energy costs [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The strengthening of the euro is contributing to downward pressure on consumer prices in the Eurozone [1] - Decreasing energy costs are also playing a significant role in the reduction of inflation [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The overall impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, but there is a possibility that it could eventually lead to a slowdown in price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market has absorbed the impact of the US credit rating downgrade, leading to a decoupling of Eurozone bond yields from those of the US, with the yield spread remaining within a controllable range [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, indicated that the effects of the US rating downgrade are no longer a concern for the market [1] - Eurozone bond yields have shown a significant decoupling from US yields, suggesting a stabilization in the European bond market [1] - The current yield spread between Eurozone and US bonds is considered manageable, indicating a level of investor confidence in the Eurozone [1]