钛媒体App 1月9日消息，高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍 预期的2.6%。美国经济表现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减 弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期 4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐 观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。（广角观察） ...

拉加德在周三的发言中称："在最近一次经济预测工作中，我们已经上调了增长预期。我预计，12月的 预测或将再次上调。" 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，该行将于下周发布的最新预测报告，很可能会对经济增 长前景作出更为乐观的评估。 拉加德一次演讲中指出，面对美国的关税冲击，由20个国家组成的欧元区展现出的韧性超出预期。她特 别指出，欧盟并未实施报复性措施，同时欧元汇率保持稳定，劳动力市场也持续强劲。 官员的一系列表态使得投资者彻底打消了对欧洲央行明年降息的预期。这一市场情绪也蔓延至全球，随 着市场预期从美国到澳大利亚的多国降息周期或即将终结，全球国债收益率攀升至2009年以来的高点。 拉加德表示："考虑到通胀率已稳定在2%左右，且中期预测也指向2%，我想再次重申，我们正处于理 想的政策区间。"她同时指出，欧元区经济"已十分接近潜在增长水平"。 针对法国总统马克龙提出的"欧元区货币政策应调整框架，在关注通胀的同时兼顾经济增长与就业"的倡 议，拉加德也作出回应。不同于美联储的多重政策目标，维持物价稳定是欧洲央行的核心使命。 拉加德称："这是一场值得开展的讨论，探讨修改相关条约的可能性也颇具意义。"但她同时强 ...

Core Insights - The overall business confidence in the Eurozone remains stable, indicating moderate economic growth across the 20 countries, resilient against trade tariffs and political uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 96.8 in October to 97.0 in November, aligning with economists' expectations but still below the long-term average of 100 [1] - This indicator has been on an upward trend since the summer and is currently at its highest level since April 2023 [1] Sector Performance - The European Commission reported an improvement in service sector confidence compared to the previous month, while industrial sector confidence experienced a slight decline [1] - Consumer confidence remained stable during the month, further supporting the notion of slow but steady economic growth in the Eurozone as the year comes to a close [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's business activity shows steady growth in November, indicating economic resilience, with improved business confidence suggesting continued momentum and a balanced inflation outlook, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to stabilize interest rates by 2026 [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November composite PMI slightly decreased from October's two-year high of 52.5 to 52.4, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing economic expansion [2]. - The services sector's PMI rose to 53.1 in November, the fastest growth in 18 months, supported by robust new orders, while employment growth was cautious [2]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating a return to contraction, with new orders and employment both declining, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the sector [2]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's November composite PMI dropped to 52.1, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.4, reflecting a significant decline in new orders, particularly in exports [3]. - France's November composite PMI improved to 49.9, nearing stability after over a year of decline, with services PMI rising to 50.8, indicating a slight recovery in business activity [4]. ECB Outlook - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates through December and into next year, supported by resilient economic growth and improved business confidence [6][7]. - ECB officials have indicated that current interest rates are appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and economic performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q3 2023 was 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly above market expectations, but the economic recovery remains fragile with significant disparities among member states [1][4]. Economic Performance - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% in Q3 2023, compared to 0.1% in the previous quarter, while EU GDP increased by 0.3% [1]. - Year-on-year growth for the Eurozone slowed from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.3% in Q3, and for the EU from 1.6% to 1.5% [1]. - Germany's GDP showed zero growth, while France and Spain experienced growth rates of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively [1][2]. Sectoral Disparities - The economic performance within the Eurozone is uneven, with Southern European countries like France and Spain benefiting from tourism and manufacturing recovery, while industrial economies like Germany face stagnation due to weak exports [1][2]. - Germany's manufacturing sector is under pressure from high energy costs and external demand weakness, leading to a slowdown in key industries such as automotive and chemicals [2]. External Environment - The trade relationship between the US and EU has shown signs of improvement, with a recent agreement to reduce tariffs, although significant tariffs on steel and aluminum remain [3]. - Despite the easing of trade tensions, European exporters still face challenges due to high inflation and tightening policies in recent years [3]. Future Outlook - According to forecasts, Eurozone GDP growth is expected to reach 1.3% in 2025, slowing to 1.1% in 2026, with potential recovery contingent on effective fiscal policies and ECB measures [4]. - The ECB's cautious approach to monetary policy aims to balance inflation control with economic growth, indicating a gradual recovery may be on the horizon [4].

Core Insights - The Eurozone economy expanded at its fastest pace since May 2023 in October, breaking a low-growth pattern earlier in the year, driven by a rebound in service sector activity and improved demand [1][2] - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 51.2 in September to 52.5 in October, marking the highest level in 29 months and indicating growth for the tenth consecutive month [1] - The service sector PMI for October was reported at 53, exceeding expectations, while new orders surged to a two-and-a-half-year high, primarily driven by services [1] Group 1 - Spain led with a Composite PMI of 56.0, the best performance in 10 months, while Germany's index rose to 53.9, the highest in nearly two and a half years [2] - Italy and Ireland recorded robust growth with PMIs of 53.1 and 53.7 respectively, while France remained in contraction territory with a PMI of 47.7, the lowest in eight months [2] - Overall employment growth accelerated to the highest level in 16 months, reversing a slight decline in September, driven by increased hiring in the service sector [2] Group 2 - Input cost inflation for the composite index fell to the lowest level in three months, while the pace of increase in selling prices reached a seven-month high [2] - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, indicating a stable policy environment amid steady economic growth and inflation near the 2% target [2]

Core Insights - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, while the EU GDP increased by 0.3% [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP rose by 1.3%, and the EU GDP grew by 1.5% in Q3 2025 [1] - Sweden recorded the highest growth among member states at +1.1%, followed by Portugal at +0.8% and the Czech Republic at +0.7% [1] - Germany and Italy did not achieve any growth in Q3 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the EU economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with GDP growth rates improving in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter [1][2][3] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while the EU overall saw a growth of 0.3%, an increase from the previous quarter's growth rates of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone's GDP growth was 1.3%, and the EU's was 1.5%, which is a slight decline from the previous quarter's growth rates of 1.5% and 1.6% [2] - Among member states, Sweden led with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1%, followed by Portugal at 0.8% and the Czech Republic at 0.7%. Conversely, Lithuania experienced a decline of 0.2%, while Ireland and Finland both saw a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]

Core Insights - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth exceeded market expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, surpassing the forecast of 0.1% and improving from Q2's growth of 0.1% [2] - France's economy showed significant growth, with a Q3 GDP increase of 0.5%, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023, despite recent political turmoil [2][5] - Germany's economy stagnated in Q3, with GDP remaining flat, avoiding technical recession but continuing a trend of low or zero growth for 14 consecutive quarters [2][7] Economic Performance by Member States - Portugal emerged as the best-performing economy in the Eurozone with a Q3 GDP growth of 0.8%, driven by strong domestic demand and tourism [5] - In the broader EU context, Sweden led with a growth rate of 1.1%, followed by the Czech Republic at 0.7%, while Lithuania experienced a contraction of 0.2% [5] - Eurozone's year-on-year GDP growth slowed from 1.5% to 1.3%, slightly above the economists' prediction of 1.2% [5] Economic Outlook and Challenges - Consumer demand showed initial signs of improvement in Q3, supported by easing inflation and slight wage increases, although manufacturing and exports continued to struggle due to weak global demand and ongoing cost pressures [6] - Germany's economic outlook for Q4 appears more positive, with plans for increased defense and infrastructure spending, alongside new tax incentives for businesses showing early signs of effectiveness [7] - The ongoing poor performance of Germany and France is a significant drag on the overall Eurozone economy, with both countries vying for the title of "the sick man of Europe" [7]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged, indicating a potential mild growth in the Eurozone economy despite facing multiple challenges [1][2] - The ECB forecasts a 1.2% economic growth rate for the Eurozone in 2025, an increase from the previous prediction of 0.9% [1] - Political instability in major Eurozone economies, such as France, raises concerns about debt levels and market confidence, impacting economic stability [2][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's inflation rate is projected to be 2.1% in 2025, close to the ECB's target of 2%, but faces dual risks from a strong euro and trade tensions [2] - The ECB's future challenges may stem more from political and fiscal risks rather than economic issues, as structural reforms are lagging [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the US highlight Europe's struggle to assert itself against American pressure, reflecting a broader issue of geopolitical vulnerability [3]