在此前的亚太经合组织第32次领导人非正式会议期间，我方与加拿大总理卡尼进行了会谈，双方就如何进一步改善两国关系达成了共识。会后，我方外交部 发言人毛宁在例行记者会上明确表示，愿与加拿大共同努力，借此会谈为契机，恢复两国在各个领域的合作，推动解决双方关心的具体问题，让两国关系尽 早回到健康、稳定且可持续的发展轨道。这无疑是过去一年里，中国向中加外交关系释放出的最积极、友好的信号。 值得注意的是，加拿大在挑战中国的同时，与美国的关系也在不断恶化。此前，卡尼公开表示，加拿大与美国之间的特殊关系已经结束。随后，在美加两国 的经济和政治谈判中，双方出现了严重分歧，甚至一度让特朗普公开表示要停止与加拿大的所有谈判。这样一来，加拿大几乎同时得罪了中美两个大国。 中国一直对与加拿大的合作持有善意。如果没有这种善意，中国就不会在亚太经合会议上与卡尼会面。但中加关系的改善与双方恢复合作的前提，应该是加 拿大能够充分尊重中国的国家利益。如果加拿大做不到这一点，那么谈何合作？而且，卡尼应该清楚，现在是他需要中国的支持。自从加拿大前政府配合美 国对中国实施封锁后，中国已采取了一些反制措施，比如暂停部分加拿大农产品的进口，这对加拿大经济 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-18投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8440，基差158，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8200-8600附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 1. ...

Macroeconomic Overview - October fundamentals continued to weaken, with real growth indicators showing significant decline, while price indicators remained supported by base effects and rebounds[2] - New home sales and investment in real estate further weakened, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates declining more sharply[2] - Social financing in October was 815 billion CNY, significantly below the expected 1,528.4 billion CNY and the previous value of 3,529.6 billion CNY[9] - New credit in October was 220 billion CNY, compared to an expected 460 billion CNY and a previous value of 1,290 billion CNY[9] Economic Data Analysis - Industrial value added in October grew by 4.9%, below the expected 5.5% and previous 6.5%[15] - Retail sales in October increased by 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.7% but below the previous 3%[15] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%[15] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 14.5%[15] Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a volume decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.40%[8] - Bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.1 basis points[8] - The U.S. stock market initially rose but later fell, with the Dow Jones up by 0.34% and the S&P 500 up by 0.08% before declining[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.26%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 251 basis points against the dollar[8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent interactions between the U.S. and China have led to China gaining two significant advantages in understanding U.S. President Trump's negotiation style and the potential for negotiations on previously deemed non-negotiable issues like chip controls [1][2][3] - The first key outcome for China is the understanding of Trump's tendency to compromise under pressure, which allows China to leverage this knowledge in future negotiations [2][3] - The second key outcome is the U.S. agreement not to impose new export controls or additional national security measures against China, marking a significant breakthrough for China in negotiations [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting that both countries have returned to a state similar to earlier this year, with the U.S. significantly reducing tariffs while China has paused its rare earth supply restrictions [1][3] - It emphasizes that the Biden administration aims to manage competition with China without escalating into conflict, maintaining communication channels and creating opportunities for cooperation on major issues [4] - The article also critiques Trump's approach to international relations, suggesting that his strategies may undermine U.S. credibility and inadvertently strengthen China's diplomatic position [4]

Core Insights - The current macroeconomic situation and future investment outlook emphasize two main investment themes: the evolving Sino-U.S. relations and the explosive growth of AI and computing power [1] Group 1: Investment Themes - The first theme focuses on the new dynamics in Sino-U.S. relations, highlighting opportunities in precious metals, domestic substitution in China's supply chain, and the reshaping of the global trade system [1] - The second theme revolves around the impact of AI and computing power, which is expected to lead to significant growth in technology companies and increased demand for electricity, power grids, and energy storage, thereby enhancing the strategic value of non-ferrous metals like copper and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The improvement in China's comprehensive national strength is seen as a foundation for a slow bull market in A-shares, with sectors such as AI, computing, energy storage, and autonomous driving driving industry transformation and the rapid growth of quality listed companies [1] - The transition of China's economy to a high-quality development phase indicates that companies representing high-quality economic growth will become core assets in the market [1] - As the credibility of the U.S. dollar declines and the dollar index depreciates, there will be an increasing demand from foreign investors to allocate assets in China [1] Group 3: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed not only as a metal but also as a form of currency, with a positive outlook on future gold prices [1] - Factors such as the increasing share of gold in reserve assets, challenges to the U.S. dollar, and unresolved major disagreements among global powers are expected to support higher gold prices [1]

Core Points - The meeting between China's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Lu Kang, and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Trade Representative, An Kaibin, focused on exchanging views regarding issues in China-U.S. relations [1] - Lu Kang emphasized the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the suggestions in the "14th Five-Year Plan" related to expanding foreign openness [1] Group 1 - The meeting aimed to address and discuss key issues affecting China-U.S. relations [1] - Lu Kang highlighted the importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in shaping China's foreign policy [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" was presented as a framework for enhancing China's openness to foreign investment and trade [1]

Asset Allocation - The investment research framework has evolved from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock to a Chinese-style monetary credit model, reflecting significant changes in China's economic development model and the diminishing role of investment in driving economic growth [12] - In the new era, liquidity is identified as a core factor influencing asset prices, with the monetary cycle remaining highly relevant. Additionally, international factors, exemplified by US-China relations, significantly impact export engines and cross-border capital flows, becoming crucial for capturing asset price changes [12] Historical Review of Stock and Bond Performance - The report reviews stock and bond performance since 2018, highlighting that in 2018, macroeconomic fundamentals were weak, leading to significant stock market declines while bonds provided good coupon returns. In 2019, equity markets experienced volatility, and bonds continued to offer protection [18] - The analysis indicates that from 2020 to 2025, equity markets have shown resilience driven by technology stocks and structural bull markets, while bonds have entered a bull market phase characterized by declining yields [18] Long-term Bond Market Trends - Historical data shows that each bond bull market corresponds with a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, driven by the interplay of "debt bulls" and "asset scarcity" [20] - The current bond bull market has seen 10-year government bond yields reach new lows, indicating a significant shift in the bond market landscape [21] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is believed to be in a long-term upward trend, with the current phase identified as the third wave of a five-wave cycle. This phase is expected to last longer than previous cycles, indicating a gradual upward movement [25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the Japanese stock market entered a long-term upward channel, supported by structural reforms and monetary easing [29] Core Investment Themes - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable US-China relations and a supportive global monetary environment. It suggests that technology stocks will lead the market in the next 5-10 years [36] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile environment, with a focus on coupon strategies as interest rates are projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% [36]

Core Points - The Chinese government, represented by Vice Minister of the International Liaison Department Lu Kang, emphasizes the commitment to high-level opening up and invites countries, including the United States, to share in China's development opportunities [1] Group 1 - Lu Kang conveyed the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, highlighting China's intention to continue expanding its openness to the outside world [1] - The meeting included an exchange of views on issues related to China-U.S. relations, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement [1]

林剑表示，针对高市早苗的错误言论，中方已表明严正立场。我想再次强调的是，台湾问题是中国核心 利益中的核心，是中美关系第一条不可逾越的红线。如何解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事，不容任何外 部干涉。我们敦促美方恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报，停止纵容支持"台独"分裂势力，停止损 害中美关系和台海和平稳定。 （总台央视记者 赵晶） 据央视新闻消息，11月13日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。总台央视记者提问：12日，美国务院 发言人就高市早苗"台湾有事"言论回答日媒提问称，美国致力于维护台海和平稳定，反对任何一方单方 面改变现状。中方对此有何评论? ...

人民财讯11月12日电，据外交部网站消息，11月11日，外交部副部长马朝旭会见美中关系全国委员会董 事会执行副主席格林伯格和会长欧伦斯，双方就中美关系和共同关心的问题交换了意见。 ...