Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.55%, and Nasdaq down 0.95% [5] - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.36% and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.45% [5] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,790 per ounce before retreating to close at $3,764.02, up 0.46% [7] - WTI crude oil rose 2.05% to $63.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.81% to $67.22 per barrel [7] - The US dollar index closed at 97.22, down 0.08% [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that the policy rate remains slightly restrictive, suggesting potential for further rate cuts [10] - The People's Bank of China reported a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for August, amounting to 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours [12]

Group 1 - A bipartisan delegation from the U.S. Congress visited China, marking the first visit by House members since 2019, indicating a potential thaw in U.S.-China relations after years of tension [3][6] - The delegation's six-day visit includes discussions with various Chinese departments, emphasizing the U.S. intention to enhance mutual understanding [3] - Economic relations between the two countries appear to be stabilizing, with previously planned tariff increases postponed to November 10, suggesting effective communication mechanisms in the economic domain [3] Group 2 - Military dialogue between the U.S. and China is highlighted as a critical area needing improvement, with concerns raised about the lack of effective communication potentially leading to risks [3][6] - The upcoming Xiangshan Forum will see a lower-level U.S. representation compared to previous years, indicating insufficient military exchanges [3] - The visit is seen as a potential opportunity to establish new channels for dialogue across various sectors, which is essential for the long-term stability of U.S.-China relations [6]

美国驻华大使用中文发帖欢迎六年首访的众议员代表团，称其"至关重要"，但这场迟到的访问背后，是八年贸易战留下的伤痕和两国关系的不懈挣扎。 当美国驻华大使庞德伟在社交平台用中文发出那条欢迎信息时，许多观察中美关系的人感到一种讽刺的错位。 这位75岁的大使，商业精英出身却又支持对 华关税战的共和党鹰派，亲自接待了自2019年以来首个访问中国的众议院代表团。 代表团由民主党众议员亚当·史密斯率领，包括迈克尔·鲍姆加特纳、罗·康 纳以及克里西·赫拉汉等跨党派成员。 庞德伟称这个团队在管理美中关系方面扮演着"至关重要的角色"。 但问题是：为什么等了六年才想起要扮演这个角 色？ 这六年恰好是中美贸易战持续的全过程。 从2018年7月6日美方对340亿美元中国商品加征25%关税开始，中美之间展开了一场长达八年的经济博弈。 2019年 5月，美国将2000亿美元中国商品关税从10%上调至25%；2024年针对中国电动汽车、锂电池、光伏电池加征25?0%关税；到2025年2月，特朗普甚至对所有 中国输美商品加征10%关税。 中方的反制从未缺席，从对美国农产品、汽车加征关税，到限制稀土出口和制裁美国企业。 贸易战数据显示，尽管美国 ...

本文来自微信公众号：嬉笑创客，作者：CB，题图来自：视觉中国 随着中美top对话的通路进一步打开，全球最重要的双边关系迎来缓解。固然对抗仍然是主轴，但方式在转变。随着Tiktok 交易进入具体落地谈判，事情 从拜登时期的没得谈，演化至可以聊。甚至当传闻美国政府要收取10亿美元的FA费用时，不少人都松了一口气：这意味着商人背景的总统真把这当生意 来做了。 懂交易的都知道，这里面的门道有多深。 既然是生意，本质上就不会和钱过不去。我们知道，隔岸观火的战争是可以发战争财的，但亲自下场的战争只会掏空国库。这大概是中美两国在过去一个 世纪里的共同经验教训。 世界从单极缓慢迈向多极的路径愈发清晰。在这个过程中，原先势力渗透至世界各地的美国在主动收缩，留下了更多真空，诱发了更多区域冲突。我们看 到了以色列的激进进攻姿态，看到了区域旧势力的卷土重来，过程中美国代理人仓皇逃离。 而中国则远远还没有接手，对海外事务的介入程度仍然低了一个量级。 要知道，过往美国的海外介入到了什么程度：单就非洲这个地理间隔遥远的大陆而言，屡有接受美国训练的军事司令发动政变，也有中情局多次策划推翻 当地政府或直接提供武器，更不用说直接在当地设有军事据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in the U.S. Congress's attitude towards China, highlighting a recent visit by a bipartisan delegation that praised China as one of the "most powerful and influential countries in the world" [3][6][8]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The visit marks the first official engagement by the U.S. House of Representatives with China since 2019, indicating a thaw in relations [3][6]. - Congressman Adam Smith's use of the term "most" to describe China reflects a stark contrast to previous characterizations of China as a "strategic threat" or "enemy" [6][10]. - The shift in tone suggests a recognition that the U.S. cannot isolate or completely contain China, as it has become a crucial player in global issues [10][12]. Group 2: Economic and Security Concerns - The article notes that the U.S. has faced economic backlash from its previous hardline stance, particularly in agriculture, where exports to China have significantly declined [15][17]. - The U.S. military is increasingly concerned about rising tensions in sensitive regions, with incidents of close encounters between U.S. and Chinese forces increasing by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19]. - The lack of effective military communication channels has raised fears of unintended conflicts, prompting a reevaluation of U.S. strategies towards China [19][34]. Group 3: Political Dynamics in the U.S. - The article highlights the complexities of U.S. governance, where the legislative and executive branches may have conflicting views on foreign policy, complicating efforts to improve U.S.-China relations [21][23]. - Despite the positive rhetoric from the congressional delegation, their ability to influence significant policy changes is limited due to the separation of powers in the U.S. government [21][26]. - The need for consistent and actionable policies is emphasized, as past statements have often failed to translate into concrete actions [28][30]. Group 4: Future of U.S.-China Relations - The article suggests that while there is a newfound willingness to engage, the underlying competition between the two nations remains, with ongoing tensions in technology, supply chains, and global governance [30][32]. - The future relationship is likely to be characterized by a "dangerous balance," where both nations must manage competition while avoiding direct conflict [32][36]. - The interdependence of the two economies means that cooperation is essential, particularly in areas like climate change and regional security, despite the competitive nature of their relationship [36][38].

Sino-US Trade Relations - China and the US should follow the important consensus reached by the two heads of state to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in China-US relations, regulatory changes in the banking sector, adjustments in housing policies, and economic measures aimed at supporting families and the real estate market, highlighting the importance of cooperation between the two largest economies and the implications of domestic policies on economic stability and growth [4][6][8][12]. Group 1: China-US Relations - On September 19, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump held a phone call to discuss the current state of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation for mutual prosperity and global stability [4]. - This call followed four rounds of economic talks, indicating a commitment to addressing outstanding issues and fostering a constructive relationship [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Regulation - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, approved the draft revision of the "Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China," aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector [6]. - The revision is intended to address market irregularities and financial risks, ensuring the healthy development of the banking industry [6]. Group 3: Housing Policies - On September 18, new regulations for housing provident fund contributions were announced in Beijing and Shanghai, adjusting the contribution limits to support housing affordability [9][11]. - The adjustments include a maximum contribution base of 35,811 yuan in Beijing and 37,302 yuan in Shanghai, with minimums set at 2,540 yuan and 2,690 yuan respectively [9]. Group 4: Economic Measures - The introduction of a new childcare subsidy management regulation aims to streamline the application process and enhance support for families, indicating a shift towards a more structured national policy [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% is seen as a response to economic concerns, potentially benefiting the Chinese market through increased foreign investment [12]. Group 5: Market Developments - Four A-share companies were flagged for financial misconduct, reflecting a stringent regulatory stance against fraud in the capital markets [13]. - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, indicating stability in lending rates amidst market expectations for potential future adjustments [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - The alumina market shows a low - level oscillation in the main contract, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,745 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 19 yuan. The main contract position is 236,067 lots, down 9,800 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,676 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,934 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 15 yuan, down 4 yuan. The main contract position is 317,523 lots, up 11,106 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,340 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 60 yuan, down 45 yuan. The main contract position is 10,767 lots, up 351 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 6 yuan, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 610 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the utilization rate of production capacity is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand from the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production is 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons. The export volume is 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The national housing prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.64%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.05%, up 0.0031 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which may affect the global capital re - balance, and non - US equity markets are more favored [2]. - Sino - US relations are expected to be improved through communication [2]. - The real estate industry is entering a transformation period from "quantity" to "quality" [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The main contract of alumina oscillates at a low level, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Aluminum View Summary - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed that communication is ongoing between China and the United States regarding a potential meeting between the two countries' leaders during the APEC informal meeting, but no specific information is available at this time [1]. Group 1 - The strategic role of leader diplomacy in guiding China-U.S. relations is emphasized [1]. - There is a close communication and interaction between the leaders of China and the United States [1]. - The spokesperson did not provide any confirmation regarding the specific meeting details mentioned by U.S. President Trump [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing communication between the U.S. and China regarding the TikTok agreement, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement in shaping bilateral relations [1]. Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement - The spokesperson highlighted the critical role of "leader diplomacy" in U.S.-China relations, noting that the two leaders maintain close communication [1]. - There is an anticipation of a meeting between the U.S. President and Chinese leaders during the upcoming APEC summit, although specific details remain undisclosed [1]. Group 2: TikTok Agreement - The Chinese government has a clear stance on the TikTok issue, advocating for a resolution that aligns with Chinese laws and regulations while respecting the intentions of the companies involved [1]. - The spokesperson expressed hope that the U.S. would provide an open, fair, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies investing in the U.S. [1]. - Following the Madrid economic talks, Chinese authorities have introduced the basic framework consensus regarding the TikTok issue, which can be referenced for further details [1].