[赞]当美国国债总额冲破38万亿美元的关口，全球资本对美债的态度正上演着一场鲜明的"分裂大戏"。 中国前三季度果断抛售603亿美元美债，相较于2011年的持仓峰值，近乎腰斩的减持力度彰显了外汇储备调整的战略决心。 而美国的盟友日本与英国却逆势入局，合计增持超2000亿美元美债，成了这场抛售潮里最显眼的"接盘侠"。 这并非简单的资本流动，而是各国基于自身利益对美元资产风险的重新评判，更是全球外汇储备格局重构的鲜活缩影。 减持主力军 在中国的外汇储备配置版图里，美债曾长期占据重要位置，2011年时中国持有1.3万亿美元美债，是美国当之无愧的第一大海外债主。 但如今再看最新数据，截至9月底，中国美债持仓已降至7005亿美元，退居美国第三大海外债主，今年前三季度就累计抛售了603亿美元，这是长达十余年 的减持之路。 2018年贸易战成为重要转折点，在此之前中国对美债的减持还相对温和，而此后减持节奏明显加快，2022年持仓更是跌破1万亿美元大关。 若从峰值算起，中国已经抛售了46%的美债持仓，接近一半的减持力度，让中国成为全球减持美债的核心力量。 这绝非一时的市场操作，而是基于对美国经济基本面的清醒判断。 美国"以债养 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's current trade conflict has led to a positive growth rate in export prices for the first time, alongside a recovery in capacity utilization, suggesting a shift towards a seller's pricing model in China's production system [2][9][11] - The upward trend in China's price cycle appears to be established, with the potential for a long-term inflationary period overseas [3][11] - Following the recovery in prices in China, the renminbi is expected to appreciate more rapidly, highlighting risks associated with dollar-denominated assets [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant recovery in various industries, particularly in energy (coking coal, coke), chemicals (soda ash, glass), and non-ferrous metals (polysilicon, metal silicon, lithium carbonate, tin, zinc, nickel) as of July 25 [8][9] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.51% [18] - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.67% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index leading the gains [22][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including the PCE price index and non-farm payroll data, which could impact market dynamics [51][54] - The report notes that the manufacturing capacity utilization rate in China improved to 74.3% in Q2, up from 74.1% previously, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing [9][16] - The report suggests that the cyclical industries are leading the market, with small metals, cement, and energy metals showing significant relative performance against the Shanghai Composite Index [34][38]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have gained significant attention in the global capital allocation landscape, with many international asset management institutions including them in their core asset lists, reflecting a consensus on overweighting these assets while reducing exposure to U.S. assets [1][2]. Economic Resilience - China's economic growth certainty reassures international investors, showcasing strong resilience and capacity to withstand shocks, as evidenced by April's economic data [1]. - Retail sales in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards quality consumption [1]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% from January to April, with significant contributions from major strategic projects and equipment upgrades [1]. - The total import and export value from January to April rose by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Reform and Openness - The ongoing reforms and opening-up of China's capital markets instill confidence in international investors, providing a more open, transparent, and regulated market environment [2]. - Mechanisms like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect facilitate easier participation for international investors, with foreign investors holding around 3 trillion yuan in A-shares [2]. - The central government's focus on strategic reserves and market stabilization enhances the capital market's ability to respond to various risks [2]. High Return Expectations - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is shifting from a single growth narrative to a dual driver of "growth + returns," with A-share dividends expected to reach 2.34 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining over 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive years [3]. - The proportion of listed companies with dividend yields exceeding 3% has risen to 35%, creating a "cash cow" matrix [3]. - In contrast, U.S. tech stocks face valuation bubble concerns, with high dynamic P/E ratios and low dividend yields, increasing investment risks in dollar assets [3]. - China's economic "triple certainty"—growth resilience, institutional stability, and asset value—positions it as a global capital "safe haven" and "growth pole" amid low growth and high volatility [3].