Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights market skepticism regarding U.S. tariff threats, leading to reduced focus on tariff announcements [1] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 50% on imports from India, 39% on imports from Switzerland, and 35% on certain products from Canada, along with tariffs on other trade partners [1] - Market attention is shifting towards the impact of tariffs on economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The overall market remains orderly, partly due to skepticism about some of President Trump's more extreme threats [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and subsequent resale on the open market, which he claims is for profit [1]. Group 1: Tariff Increase - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, as part of broader punitive measures [1]. - Trump expressed his intention to significantly raise tariffs on India in response to their oil trade practices [1]. Group 2: India's Response - The Indian Ministry of Commerce stated that it is assessing the impact of Trump's statements and will take necessary measures to protect national interests [1]. - Indian officials indicated that despite the threats, India will continue to purchase Russian oil due to long-term contracts that cannot be abruptly terminated [1].

Group 1 - The four major state-owned oil companies in India have halted new oil procurement requests from Russia, marking a temporary suspension of oil trade with Russia [1][3] - State-owned oil companies control over 60% of India's refining capacity, processing approximately 5.2 million barrels per day, making them a key player in the industry [3] - Indian Oil Corporation, the largest oil company in India, has explicitly rejected oil supplies from Russia, significantly impacting Russian oil exports [3] Group 2 - The primary reason for this halt is the threat from former President Trump, who warned that countries purchasing oil from Russia could face a 100% tariff, causing confusion in the Indian refining sector [6] - Economic factors also play a role; since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian oil supply to India has increased over 30 times, initially attracting Indian companies with discounts of $14 to $16 per barrel compared to market prices [9] - Recently, the discount offered by Russia has decreased to only $2.5 to $4 per barrel, reducing the attractiveness of Russian oil and prompting Indian companies to seek alternatives from other regions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

截至8月1日8时30分，国际现货黄金已跌破3300美元/盎司，报3289.26美元/盎司。 国内金饰现价也普遍跌至1000元/克下方。 | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 晋陵 | 银行 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | ઠેઠેર | -0.70% | | 周六福 | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | 991 | -1.00% | | 六福珠宝 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 芙圭章 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | ● 29 或者 20 | 据央视财经此前报道，市场对美联储降息预期遇冷，美元指数延续上涨势头，国际金价周四承压下跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3348.6美元，跌幅为0.13%。今年7月，因美国政府 关税威胁，国际金价一度涨回每盎司3400美元关口上方。此后，随着美国政府陆续与主要贸易伙伴达成 协议，国际金价涨幅收窄，7月累计小幅上涨，涨幅为1.24 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed concerns over the U.S. tariff threats, indicating that Brazil will not yield to U.S. decisions regarding trade and politics [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [1] - Lula stated that the tariff threats have caused "concern" in Brazil [1] Group 2: Political and Trade Relations - Lula attempted to contact Trump regarding tariff issues, but there was no willingness for communication from the U.S. side [1] - He emphasized that Brazil is prepared to engage in both political and trade discussions, but the U.S. should not conflate the two issues [1]

消息人士：过去一周，印度国有炼油商因折扣减少和特朗普的关税威胁而停止购买俄罗斯石油。 ...

市场分析：市场对特朗普最新关税威胁的无视存在风险 金十数据7月31日讯，Northwestern Mutual首席投资官Brent Schutte表示，美联储与市场一样，对经济前 景仍存疑虑，内部意见分歧也日益加剧。虽然异议声音本身不会决定政策方向，但反映出央行更广泛的 不确定性。一个关键的变数是特朗普最新宣布的对印度25%关税。Schutt称，市场目前基本无视这一最 新关税威胁，认为白宫可能在必要时掉头。但他警告称，这种押注可能存在风险，尤其是当企业开始将 关税成本转嫁给消费者时。尽管如此，在关税影响完全显现之前，美国实际私人国内采购支出已明显放 缓。一旦企业涨价，美联储将很快陷入"通胀上升与经济放缓"之间的艰难权衡。 ...

Group 1 - The São Paulo Stock Exchange index in Brazil closed down by 1.04%, reaching 132,000 points [1] - The Brazilian real depreciated by 0.44% against the US dollar, trading at 5.5886 reais, continuing to struggle around the 5.58 reais mark since the sharp decline on July 9 [1] - Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced that a response plan to the US tariff threats is ready [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new US-EU trade agreement has been criticized for being biased and detrimental to European interests, with calls for a stronger EU response to US tariffs [1][3][16]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US has reduced tariffs on EU goods from previously proposed rates of 20% and 30% to 15% [3]. - The agreement includes a commitment for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US and plans for $600 billion in US investments, though the specifics remain unclear [3]. Group 2: EU's Response and Strategy - Analysts believe that the EU's response to US tariffs has been too slow and ineffective, with missed opportunities for a stronger stance alongside China [4][5]. - The EU had initially prepared a three-point plan to address the trade imbalance, which included increasing imports of US goods and proposing mutual tariff reductions [5]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Challenges - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to the US, with some officials advocating for a tougher stance while others prefer a more conciliatory approach [10][11]. - The EU's reliance on US security guarantees has further complicated its ability to confront US trade policies [14]. Group 4: Criticism of the Agreement - Critics, including European officials, argue that the agreement represents a capitulation to US demands and fails to provide equitable terms for Europe [16]. - The agreement's provisions for increased US military technology purchases and investment commitments are seen as detrimental to European industry and employment [16].