市场分析：市场对特朗普最新关税威胁的无视存在风险 金十数据7月31日讯，Northwestern Mutual首席投资官Brent Schutte表示，美联储与市场一样，对经济前 景仍存疑虑，内部意见分歧也日益加剧。虽然异议声音本身不会决定政策方向，但反映出央行更广泛的 不确定性。一个关键的变数是特朗普最新宣布的对印度25%关税。Schutt称，市场目前基本无视这一最 新关税威胁，认为白宫可能在必要时掉头。但他警告称，这种押注可能存在风险，尤其是当企业开始将 关税成本转嫁给消费者时。尽管如此，在关税影响完全显现之前，美国实际私人国内采购支出已明显放 缓。一旦企业涨价，美联储将很快陷入"通胀上升与经济放缓"之间的艰难权衡。 ...

Group 1 - The São Paulo Stock Exchange index in Brazil closed down by 1.04%, reaching 132,000 points [1] - The Brazilian real depreciated by 0.44% against the US dollar, trading at 5.5886 reais, continuing to struggle around the 5.58 reais mark since the sharp decline on July 9 [1] - Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced that a response plan to the US tariff threats is ready [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new US-EU trade agreement has been criticized for being biased and detrimental to European interests, with calls for a stronger EU response to US tariffs [1][3][16]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US has reduced tariffs on EU goods from previously proposed rates of 20% and 30% to 15% [3]. - The agreement includes a commitment for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US and plans for $600 billion in US investments, though the specifics remain unclear [3]. Group 2: EU's Response and Strategy - Analysts believe that the EU's response to US tariffs has been too slow and ineffective, with missed opportunities for a stronger stance alongside China [4][5]. - The EU had initially prepared a three-point plan to address the trade imbalance, which included increasing imports of US goods and proposing mutual tariff reductions [5]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Challenges - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to the US, with some officials advocating for a tougher stance while others prefer a more conciliatory approach [10][11]. - The EU's reliance on US security guarantees has further complicated its ability to confront US trade policies [14]. Group 4: Criticism of the Agreement - Critics, including European officials, argue that the agreement represents a capitulation to US demands and fails to provide equitable terms for Europe [16]. - The agreement's provisions for increased US military technology purchases and investment commitments are seen as detrimental to European industry and employment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The core issue revolves around whether the European Union can offer a sufficiently attractive deal to persuade President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, emphasizes the importance of the EU's negotiation strategy in relation to tariff discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian pig iron producers are considering halting operations due to reduced demand from U.S. customers caused by tariff threats [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Modulax's CEO, Geraldo Basques, announced that the company will cease operations next week and plans maintenance work later this year, with no set date for resuming production due to trade concerns [1] - Competitor Css Siderurgica Setelagoana stated that it is currently operating using raw material inventory while awaiting clarity on tariff situations, but may be forced to stop production once the inventory is depleted [1] Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. is the largest buyer of Brazilian pig iron, making the market highly sensitive to tariff changes [1] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Latin American countries starting August 1, which has heightened uncertainty in the trade environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that American Airlines (AAL.US) reported a 0.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $14.4 billion in Q2, exceeding analyst expectations of $14.3 billion, but net profit fell by 16.4% to $599 million [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $0.95, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.75 [1] - Despite better-than-expected Q2 results, the company's 2025 earnings guidance was disappointing, with adjusted EPS projected between -$0.2 and $0.8, with a midpoint of $0.3, lower than the analyst expectation of $0.72 [1] Group 2 - American Airlines' outlook for the second half of the year contrasts sharply with the more optimistic forecasts from United Airlines (UAL.US) and Delta Airlines (DAL.US) [1] - The company noted that if the domestic market continues to strengthen, its full-year performance could reach the upper end of its guidance range, while new macroeconomic weaknesses could push it to the lower end [1] - CEO Robert Isom mentioned that July was a challenging month due to weak consumer demand, but he believes that supply-demand conditions will become more favorable for airlines in 2025 [2]

Market Performance - The US stock market reached new highs on July 21, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassing 21,000 points for the first time, peaking at 21,077.37 points and closing up 0.38% at 20,974.17 points [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a record, hitting an intraday high of 6,336.08 points and closing up 0.14% at 6,305.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed relative weakness, declining 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points [1] - The S&P 500's communication services sector led the gains with a 1.90% increase, followed by consumer discretionary at 0.60%, while the energy sector was the biggest loser, down 0.96% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks drove the market's rise, with Alphabet up 2.72%, Meta up 1.23%, Amazon up 1.43%, and Apple up 0.62%, although Tesla saw a decline of 0.35% despite earlier gains [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from Tesla and Google are anticipated to be critical in assessing the market's high valuations [2] Corporate Earnings - Strong corporate earnings are a key catalyst for market growth, with over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeding market expectations, significantly above the long-term average of 48% [4] - The seven major tech companies expected to report earnings are projected to lead a 14.1% growth in S&P 500 earnings for the quarter [4] Currency Impact - The US dollar index fell 0.62% to 97.84, creating a favorable exchange rate environment for US companies' overseas revenues [4] - Goldman Sachs' analysis suggests that a 10% decline in the dollar could increase S&P 500 earnings per share by approximately 2% to 3% [4] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's tariff threats continue to loom over the market, with new tariffs expected to be implemented in two weeks [6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market has shown resilience, partly due to the expectation that final tax rates may be lower than proposed [6][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - There are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for a rate cut in July due to economic risks, while market expectations for a rate cut have cooled [8] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now seen as exceeding 50% [8] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is nearing historical highs, raising concerns about market valuations [10] - Despite these concerns, Wall Street remains relatively optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, reaching 6,900 points [10] Key Upcoming Events - The market will focus on key upcoming events, including earnings guidance from tech giants like Tesla and Google, signals from the Federal Reserve, and developments in tariff negotiations [10]

潘森宏观：特朗普关税威胁令欧洲央行利率决议陷入迷雾 金十数据7月22日讯，潘森宏观经济学家Claus Vistesen指出，美国总统特朗普的关税威胁难以辨别是真 实意图还是谈判筹码，这给欧洲央行的利率决议蒙上阴影。该行管委会本周料将维持基准利率在2.00% 不变。Vistesen表示，部分委员可能重点关注特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品加征的30%关税——此举将重 创欧元区经济。他在致投资者的报告中写道，"但政策制定者面临的困境在于，他们无法确定特朗普是 否真打算实施此类关税，更不用说是否长期维持此关税。"这使得欧洲央行本周或将按兵不动，并转而 关注9月会议，届时欧盟和美国的贸易关系可能会更加明朗。 ...

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russian goods if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days, impacting global trade dynamics [1][3] - This tariff threat extends to countries that trade with Russia or purchase Russian oil, indicating a broader strategy to exert pressure on Russia and reshape European positions in the conflict [3] Group 2: European Reactions - European countries have shown mixed responses to the U.S. tariff threat, with the Dutch Prime Minister expressing willingness to support U.S. aid to Ukraine, while Germany has delayed its energy sanctions against Russia [3] - Previous U.S. sanctions have already caused significant losses in the European automotive industry, amounting to over €12 billion, with German car inventories increasing by 47% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Russia's Countermeasures - In response to U.S. actions, Russia is diversifying its energy exports, aiming to increase oil exports to China to 800,000 barrels per day and restarting discounted oil exports to India, with daily volumes exceeding 1.2 million barrels [4][6] - Russia's military continues to demonstrate strong capabilities on the battlefield, despite facing challenges such as manpower shortages and economic pressures [4][6] Group 4: Economic Challenges for Russia - Russia's economy is heavily reliant on energy exports, which account for nearly 30% of its federal budget, and has seen a 45% drop in energy export revenues due to U.S. tariffs and previous sanctions [6] - The ruble has experienced significant depreciation, falling below 100 to 1 USD, and despite the Central Bank's efforts to lower interest rates to 20%, economic instability persists [6] Group 5: Global Implications - The tariff conflict between the U.S. and Russia has broader implications for global political and economic landscapes, with the U.S. facing potential loss of international credibility if it fails to compel Russia to comply [8] - Russia must navigate the dual challenges of manpower shortages and economic strain while maintaining domestic stability and its international stance [8]

发表全国讲话："无法接受的讹诈" 新华社北京7月18日电（记者郭倩）巴西电视和广播媒体17日晚播出总统卢拉面向全国民众的讲话，卢拉在讲话中批评美方威胁对巴西商品征 收50%关税是"让人无法接受的讹诈"。卢拉当天还在一场活动上表示，巴西不会听令于外国人。 巴西电视和广播媒体17日晚播出预先录制的卢拉面向全国民众的讲话。卢拉表示，巴西此前一直在与美国就关税问题进行谈判，已于5月向美 方提交一份方案。 接受美媒采访：特朗普不是"世界皇帝" 卢拉说，巴西捍卫主权的方式包括保护自身免受外国数字平台的侵害，将继续对美国技术企业进行监管和征税。 1月30日，巴西总统卢拉在首都巴西利亚总统府参加记者会。新华社发（卢西奥·塔沃拉摄） 4月9日，巴西总统卢拉在洪都拉斯首都特古西加尔巴的拉美和加勒比国家共同体第九届峰会会场致意。新华社发（戴维·德拉帕斯摄） "我们期待得到回应，但我们收到的是让人无法接受的讹诈，这种讹诈表现为对巴西的威胁和有关巴西与美国贸易的虚假信息。"卢拉说。 美国总统特朗普9日在社交媒体上发布致卢拉的信函，威胁将自8月1日起对所有从巴西进口的商品征收50%关税，同时要求卢拉政府停止对前 总统博索纳罗的司法调查， ...