便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增。Q3 公司整体住宿预订营业收入同比增长 18%、环比增长 29%，主要得益于强劲的旅游需求，尤其是夏季及国庆假期期间表现突出。国内消费者 旅游需求依然旺盛，游客追求新奇、沉浸式体验，旅游需求日益多样化，北京、上海、成都等主要城市 及拉萨等偏远地区、小城市预订量均呈现增长态势。酒店价格方面，Q3 酒店价格同比降幅收窄至低个 位数，黄金周期间国内酒店价格呈上涨趋势。入境游方面， Q3 携程平台上入境游预订量同比增长超过 100%，亚太地区为主要客源地，欧洲和美国也实现强劲增长。我们继续看好政策及市场需求驱动入境 游单量保持高增。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到Q3 处置投资对业绩的积极影响，我们将2025 年公司经调整净利润预测从 183 亿元上调至323 亿元，维持2026/2027 年预测200/220 亿元，对应2025-2027 经调整口径PE 为 11/17/16 倍，我们继续看好公司海外业务成长，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：短期投入增加影响盈利能力，海外份额提升不及预期，旅游需求不及预期 机构：东吴证券 研究 ...

(1)出境游：Q3携程的出境酒店和机票预订量攀升至2019年同期水平的140%，同比增长近20%，继续好 于市场表现;黄金周期间同比增长约30%。日本、韩国及东南亚为热门目的地，欧洲成为关键增长区 域，冰岛、挪威等目的地预订量大幅增长。机票价格方面，受航班运力恢复影响，跨境机票价格较去年 有所回落，但仍高于疫情前水平;酒店价格基本保持稳定，Q3出境游业务收入继续保持较快的同比增 长。 (2)国际业务：Q3Trip.com总预定量同比增长约60%，其中亚太地区仍是运营重点，同比增长逾50%，中 东、欧洲等新市场也展现出亮眼增长。公司近几个季度实现快速的市场份额增长，并将继续在全球范围 内投资，特别是在亚太地区。根据sensor tower数据，trip.com APP10-11月在全球市场(不含中国大陆地 区)双端MAU同比增长69%，其中亚洲市场(不含中国大陆地区)同比增长64%，增长亮眼。该行看好公司 基于高标准服务及便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增 东吴证券发布研报称，继续看好携程集团-S(09961)海外业务成长，维持"买入"评级。公司通过深 ...

Group 1 - The recent diplomatic tensions and security issues in Japan have led to a travel warning from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, prompting major airlines to initiate a free cancellation and modification policy for travelers [1] - There has been a significant increase in cancellation requests for trips to Japan, with many travel products being taken off the shelves as a result of rising market risk aversion [1] - Data from Qunar indicates that the demand for staggered outbound travel from Chinese tourists remains strong until the end of 2025, with South Korea now becoming the most popular destination, replacing Japan [1] Group 2 - Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region have experienced declines, while the new stock N Dapeng surged by 1200%, alongside a drop in gold, oil prices, and cryptocurrencies [2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has provided new interpretations regarding work-related injury recognition, covering scenarios such as commuting and remote work [2] - Ctrip has cashed out 17 billion yuan from its investment in the Indian version of its platform after 9 years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent tensions due to Japan's comments on Taiwan and deteriorating local security have led the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to issue a travel warning for Japan, prompting major domestic airlines to implement a free cancellation and modification policy [1] Group 1: Travel Industry Impact - Travel agencies have not received any "stop group" directives, but market risk aversion is rising, with a significant increase in cancellations for trips to Japan [1] - One travel agency reported a surge in cancellation requests, leading to the removal of many related travel products from their offerings [1] Group 2: Tourist Destination Shift - Data from Qunar indicates that the demand for staggered outbound travel from Chinese tourists remains strong until the end of 2025 [1] - Some travelers originally planning to visit Japan are now shifting their preferences to other destinations, with South Korea emerging as the most popular choice for outbound travel [1]

北京商报讯（记者 关子辰 牛清妍）赴日游降温后，泰国国家旅游局面向中国游客推出"安心游"。11月 19日，泰国国家旅游局北京办事处发文称，泰国始终以"挚友"的姿态迎接来自世界各地的游客，尤其是 中国朋友。泰国国家旅游局在文中明确表示，欢迎中国游客重返泰国。 北京商报此前报道，多位旅游业内人士表示，赴日游降温后，一些有出境计划的游客把目光瞄向了新加 坡、泰国等东南亚国家。预计接下来的元旦、春节假期，新加坡、泰国等东南亚国家出游热度有望升 温。 同时，为了让中国游客在泰国的旅程更加安全、安心、便捷，泰国国家旅游局推出 "Trusted Thailand （泰国安心游）" 项目，所有获得该标识的企业，均通过严格审核并具备完善的安全与服务标准。这些 标准包括全面覆盖的 CCTV 安防系统、便捷的微信支付与支付宝服务、中文服务人员或翻译应用协助 沟通、顺畅便利的旅行动线与服务体验。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese tourism market is experiencing a rapid decline due to travel warnings and the implementation of free ticket refund policies by airlines, leading to a significant number of cancellations by travelers [1][3][6]. Group 1: Ticket Cancellations and Market Impact - As of November 19, approximately 900,000 tickets for trips to Japan remain booked but unused, down from 1.55 million on November 15, indicating a reduction of 543,000 tickets in just four days [1][2]. - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have introduced free refund policies for flights to Japan, followed by other airlines, which has led to a sharp decline in passenger numbers [3][5]. - The number of travelers originally planned for Japan dropped from 1.55 million to 1.06 million, a decrease of 32%, with the cancellation rate on November 16 being 27 times the number of new bookings, highlighting safety concerns among travelers [6][8]. Group 2: Effects on Travel Agencies - Travel agencies have been forced to cancel all group tours to Japan for November and December, significantly impacting their business, especially in terms of fixed costs related to local services and accommodations [11][12]. - Despite the airlines' refund policies alleviating some financial pressure, travel agencies remain concerned about the potential impact on upcoming holiday travel during New Year and Spring Festival [11][12]. Group 3: Shifts in Tourist Preferences - With the decline in interest in Japan, other destinations such as Southeast Asia and Russia are actively competing for Chinese tourists, with a reported 20% increase in inquiries for Southeast Asian travel products [12][15]. - Following the announcement of a visa-free policy for Chinese tourists by Russia, there has been a significant surge in flight searches to Moscow, with some routes seeing increases of over 300% [14][15]. - Thailand has also launched the "Thailand Safe Travel" initiative to reassure Chinese tourists and is offering exclusive New Year promotions to attract visitors [15].

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 16% to 18.4 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 1% due to strong accommodation and transportation revenues [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 6.1 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6%, primarily driven by higher-than-expected gross profit [1] - The net profit under non-GAAP was 19.2 billion yuan, significantly outperforming market expectations, mainly due to investment gains from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares [1] Domestic Growth Trends - Domestic hotel performance showed robust growth, with Q3 domestic hotel room nights increasing by 15%, better than anticipated, although Average Daily Rate (ADR) experienced a low single-digit decline [1] - For Q4, the company expects a low single-digit decline in domestic hotel prices and a 10-15% increase in room nights [1] - Domestic transportation revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q3, with volume growth in line with the industry, but ticket revenue declined due to pricing and yield management impacts; Q4 is expected to maintain this trend [1] International Travel Resilience - The company experienced strong resilience in outbound travel, with Q3 bookings for outbound flights and hotels increasing by nearly 20%, recovering to 140% of 2019 levels, significantly outperforming industry recovery [2] - Q4 is expected to maintain the same recovery level as Q3, with outbound hotel revenue likely to continue growing over 20% year-on-year [2] - Despite recent concerns regarding short-haul destinations due to public sentiment in Japan, the company anticipates limited impact in Q4, as potential user diversion may mitigate the effects on single destinations [2] Trip.com Growth and Market Strategy - Trip.com continued to grow rapidly, with international OTA bookings increasing by approximately 60% in Q3, driven by a threefold increase in inbound travel [2] - International hotel revenue for Trip.com grew by 70% year-on-year, with its share exceeding 40% [2] - The company plans to invest actively in overseas marketing during the Q4 peak season, which may raise the group’s marketing expense ratio to 27%, with expectations for Trip.com to maintain over 50% year-on-year growth [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected growth in international business, the company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 2% to 61.9 billion yuan and 69.8 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 77% and 4% to 31.5 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan, respectively, considering one-time investment gains and operational leverage [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating, raising target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks by 5% and 4% to $92.5 and HK$711.7, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 30% and 28% compared to current stock prices [2]

大数据显示，今年以来，俄罗斯是热度增速最快的出境游目的地之一。截至11月19日，今年俄罗斯酒店预订量同比去年增长了43%。 编辑|金冥羽 杜波 每经编辑｜金冥羽 校对|程鹏 据CCTV国际时讯，俄罗斯总统普京11月18日宣布，俄罗斯将很快对中国公民采取对等免签措施。普京表示，这将对两国经济和人文交流产生重大影响， 显著促进两国人民交流，并将积极推动两国关系快速向前发展。 去哪儿旅行指数显示，消息带动赴俄罗斯机票搜索量猛增。截至19日上午9点，北京-莫斯科航线搜索量环比前一小时猛增3.4倍，成都出发航线环比增3.2 倍，上海出发航线环比增1.1倍，深圳环比增1.4倍，杭州、重庆均增1倍以上。 每日经济新闻综合CCTV国际时讯、封面新闻 中国至圣彼得堡航线搜索量同样显示出明显增幅。增速最快的国内出发地有武汉、天津、乌鲁木齐、上海、广州等。其中武汉同比上周增14倍，天津增5 倍，乌鲁木齐增4.5倍，上海至圣彼得堡一小时增2倍，同比上周增3倍。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China has advised tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, leading to a surge in cancellations for group tours to Japan [1] - Popular outbound travel destinations have shifted significantly, with South Korea emerging as the new top destination, followed by Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia [1] - Data from travel platforms indicates that as of November 17, Seoul is the most searched destination for outbound flights, with Bangkok, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur also showing high search volumes [1] Group 2 - There has been a notable increase in inquiries and bookings for destinations like Bali, Phu Quoc in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with a 20% rise in product inquiries for these locations [3] - The winter travel market is seeing a growing proportion of young travelers, with nearby destinations like South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia becoming increasingly popular due to their proximity, convenient transportation, and rich tourism resources [4]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China has issued a warning for Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently [1] - There has been a noticeable increase in cancellations and changes to travel plans to Japan, with many tourists opting for refunds on flights and hotels [1] - Popular outbound travel destinations have shifted, with South Korea emerging as the top destination for Chinese tourists [1] Travel Industry Impact - Major travel companies have reported a surge in cancellations for trips to Japan, with flight refunds being largely hassle-free [1] - Hotel refunds depend on local hotel policies, but travel agencies are actively working to facilitate no-loss refunds [1] - Data from Qunar indicates that South Korea, particularly Seoul, has become the most searched destination for outbound travel [1] Booking Trends - There is a significant increase in bookings for other Southeast Asian destinations, including Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia [1] - The search volume for Singapore, Sydney, and Bali has increased by over 10% compared to the previous week [1]