证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 01 09 年 月 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 下沉市场 OTA 龙头，用户价值提升驱动增长 同程旅行：强强联合优势互补，打造在线旅游旗舰。公司由在线旅行平台 同程网络及艺龙于 2018 年合并而成，彼时同程优势在于交通票务，艺龙 聚焦酒店预订。腾讯携程两大股东对同程深度赋能，同程在独占腾讯旗下 微信及 QQ 支付界面交通出行以及酒店服务入口的同时也可共享携程的酒 店库存，实现快速发展，成长为年付费用户超 2.5 亿的下沉市场 OTA 龙 头。出行放开后，公司业绩迎来兑现期，25 年前三季度收入/归母净利/经 调利润为 145.6/22.9/26.2 亿元，同比+11%/41%/23%，其中收入构成为 28%住宿+42%交通+15%度假+15%其他。公司各项费率呈稳中有降趋 势，经调利润率从 24Q1-Q3 的 16.2%明显提升至 25 年同期的 18.0%。 OTA：旅游业强确定性赛道，格局稳定各分天下。1）旅游大盘：截至 25 年前三季度，国内旅游人数/收入分别恢复至 19 年同期 109%/111%，今 年出境游人次亦有望恢复至 ...

财报显示，截至2025年三季度末，同程旅行年付费用户达到2.53亿，年累计服务人次突破20亿，创历史 新高。 同程旅行还在酒店市场持续发力。截至2025年9月末，艺龙酒店科技平台运营酒店数量已增至近3000 家，另有1500家正在筹建。2025年三季度，同程旅行其他收入板块同比增长34.9%，达到8.21亿元。随 着对万达酒管的收购，同程旅行将进一步完善酒店管理业务版图。 （文章来源：北京商报） 11月25日，同程旅行发布2025年三季度业绩报告，报告期内，同程旅行实现营业收入55.09亿元，同比 增长10.4%。其中，交通业务收入同比增长9%，达22.09亿元；住宿业务收入实现14.7%的同比增长，达 15.8亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 16% to 18.4 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 1% due to strong accommodation and transportation revenues [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 6.1 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6%, primarily driven by higher-than-expected gross profit [1] - The net profit under non-GAAP was 19.2 billion yuan, significantly outperforming market expectations, mainly due to investment gains from the sale of MakeMyTrip shares [1] Domestic Growth Trends - Domestic hotel performance showed robust growth, with Q3 domestic hotel room nights increasing by 15%, better than anticipated, although Average Daily Rate (ADR) experienced a low single-digit decline [1] - For Q4, the company expects a low single-digit decline in domestic hotel prices and a 10-15% increase in room nights [1] - Domestic transportation revenue remained flat year-on-year in Q3, with volume growth in line with the industry, but ticket revenue declined due to pricing and yield management impacts; Q4 is expected to maintain this trend [1] International Travel Resilience - The company experienced strong resilience in outbound travel, with Q3 bookings for outbound flights and hotels increasing by nearly 20%, recovering to 140% of 2019 levels, significantly outperforming industry recovery [2] - Q4 is expected to maintain the same recovery level as Q3, with outbound hotel revenue likely to continue growing over 20% year-on-year [2] - Despite recent concerns regarding short-haul destinations due to public sentiment in Japan, the company anticipates limited impact in Q4, as potential user diversion may mitigate the effects on single destinations [2] Trip.com Growth and Market Strategy - Trip.com continued to grow rapidly, with international OTA bookings increasing by approximately 60% in Q3, driven by a threefold increase in inbound travel [2] - International hotel revenue for Trip.com grew by 70% year-on-year, with its share exceeding 40% [2] - The company plans to invest actively in overseas marketing during the Q4 peak season, which may raise the group’s marketing expense ratio to 27%, with expectations for Trip.com to maintain over 50% year-on-year growth [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected growth in international business, the company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 2% to 61.9 billion yuan and 69.8 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 77% and 4% to 31.5 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan, respectively, considering one-time investment gains and operational leverage [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating, raising target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks by 5% and 4% to $92.5 and HK$711.7, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 30% and 28% compared to current stock prices [2]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a net revenue of 14.8 billion RMB (2.1 billion USD) for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue reached 6.2 billion RMB (869 million USD), up 21% year-on-year, driven by growth in accommodation bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB (753 million USD), an 11% year-on-year increase, primarily due to the rise in transportation ticket bookings [1] - Vacation business revenue amounted to 1.1 billion RMB (151 million USD), reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, supported by growth in vacation bookings [1] - Business travel management revenue was 692 million RMB (97 million USD), up 9% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the increase in business travel orders [1] Profitability - Net profit attributable to Ctrip Group shareholders was 4.8 billion RMB (676 million USD), compared to 3.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 and 4.3 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] Cash Position - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits totaling 94.1 billion RMB (13.1 billion USD) [2]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported a net revenue of RMB 14.843 billion for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to Ctrip Group Limited was RMB 4.846 billion, up 26.43% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of RMB 7.34 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 6.2 billion (USD 869 million), showing a year-on-year increase of 21%, driven by growth in accommodation bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 5.4 billion (USD 753 million), reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, primarily due to growth in transportation ticket bookings [1] Strategic Outlook - The Executive Chairman of Ctrip, Liang Jianzhang, emphasized that tourism is a key factor for national development and global cooperation, serving as an engine for economic growth and a catalyst for cultural exchange [1] - The CEO of Ctrip, Sun Jie, expressed optimism about the strong development momentum across various tourism sectors and highlighted the focus on meeting the growing demands of different customer segments, particularly in the inbound tourism market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dalian Shengya (600593.SH) has announced a plan to issue A-shares to specific investors, aiming to raise approximately 956.34 million yuan to repay debts and enhance liquidity, which will lead to a change in control of the company [1][3][7]. Group 1: Share Issuance Details - The planned issuance price is set at 24.75 yuan per share, with a maximum of 38,640,000 shares to be issued, representing up to 30% of the company's total shares before the issuance [3][4]. - The specific investor for this issuance is Shanghai Tongcheng Enterprise Management Partnership, which is a holding entity established by Tongcheng Travel, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][3][6]. - Following the issuance, Shanghai Tongcheng will become the controlling shareholder, and the company will have no actual controller due to the lack of a controlling entity for Tongcheng Travel [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Condition and Objectives - The issuance aims to alleviate the company's debt and operational risks, positioning it as a leading enterprise in the cultural tourism sector through industry integration and IP operation [7]. - Dalian Shengya's consolidated asset-liability ratios were reported at 84.90%, 83.05%, 85.75%, and 85.60% for the end of 2022, 2023, 2024, and March 2025, respectively [7]. - The company has faced financial challenges, with net profits of -76.64 million yuan in 2022, 34.38 million yuan in 2023, and further losses projected for 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Business Operations - Dalian Shengya primarily operates in the tourism and entertainment sector, managing attractions like Dalian Shengya Ocean World and Harbin Polar Park, focusing on scenic area operations, commercial activities, animal management, and hotel operations [6]. - Tongcheng Travel, the indirect controlling entity, offers a wide range of travel services, including transportation ticketing, accommodation booking, and tour packages, indicating potential synergies with Dalian Shengya's operations [6].

Core Insights - The competition in the local lifestyle service sector, particularly in the instant retail and travel industry, is intensifying among major players like JD, Alibaba, and Meituan, each adopting aggressive strategies to capture market share [2][6][36]. Group 1: Instant Retail and Order Volume - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that their daily order volume for instant retail has surpassed 80 million as of July 14, while Meituan reported 150 million orders on July 12, and JD exceeded 25 million in June [1]. Group 2: Local Lifestyle Services - The local lifestyle service sector encompasses a wide range of services beyond food delivery, including travel and accommodation, with Meituan leading in this space [2]. - Meituan's core local business includes food delivery, in-store services, and travel, indicating a comprehensive approach to local services [2]. Group 3: JD's Entry into Travel - JD launched a "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Plan" on June 18, 2025, offering up to three years of zero commission, marking a significant push into the travel sector [4]. - Following JD's move, Alibaba integrated Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce group, showcasing its ambitions in the travel sector [5]. Group 4: Competition Dynamics - The competition among JD, Alibaba, and Meituan is reshaping the landscape of the local lifestyle service sector, particularly in travel [6]. - The online travel agency (OTA) market is witnessing strategic shifts, with players like Tongcheng Travel maintaining growth despite fierce competition [8][11]. Group 5: Tongcheng Travel's Market Position - Tongcheng Travel has shown impressive growth, with a market share of 15% in the OTA sector, trailing behind Ctrip [8]. - As of December 2024, Tongcheng's user base reached 218 million, significantly outpacing competitors like Ctrip and Fliggy [8]. Group 6: Financial Performance - Tongcheng reported a revenue of 43.77 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 13.2% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 41.1% [21]. - The company's revenue primarily comes from transportation ticket bookings, with accommodation bookings contributing 27.1% of total revenue [21]. Group 7: Supply Chain and Partnerships - Tongcheng's supply chain is partially shared with Ctrip, allowing it to enhance its product offerings and competitiveness [22][24]. - The partnership with Tencent has provided Tongcheng with a significant advantage in user acquisition through WeChat [12][17]. Group 8: Market Challenges - The OTA market is facing increased competition, with hotels seeking to reduce reliance on platforms by building direct sales channels [40]. - The rise of self-operated channels among hotels poses a long-term challenge to OTA platforms like Tongcheng [40]. Group 9: Future Outlook - The domestic tourism industry is recovering, with projections indicating a rise in tourist numbers and spending [35]. - However, the competitive landscape is evolving, with established players like Meituan and emerging platforms like Douyin intensifying their focus on the travel sector [39][43].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q1 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net revenue reached 13.9 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations; accommodation bookings grew by 23%, and transportation ticketing revenue increased by 8%, contributing 54% and 22% to total revenue respectively [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 1 percentage point to 80%; adjusted net profit rose to 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 9% [1][3] Operational Data - Domestic hotel night volume saw double-digit growth year-on-year in Q1, with ADR experiencing a slight decline; however, a narrowing of the decline is expected in April and May [1] - Internationally, hotel and flight bookings increased by over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region; inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, benefiting from favorable policies [2] Market Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains robust, while overseas operations are in an investment phase; during the May Day holiday, domestic travel volume and revenue increased by 8% and 6% respectively [2] - Ctrip's domestic hotel bookings rose by 20% year-on-year during the holiday, with cross-border orders increasing by 30% and inbound bookings up by 150% [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly adjusted its 2025 revenue and profit forecasts, expecting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, with accommodation bookings growing by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3] - The target price is maintained at 591 HKD (9961.HK) / 76 USD (TCOM.US), corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, with a "Buy" rating upheld [3]