宏观数据动态点评 春运"火"，长假"旺"？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 今年春运的"火"，能否映射出假期内需的"旺"？2026 年春运，在"史上最长" 春节假期的强劲驱动下，正以前所未有的热度拉开帷幕，流动规模有望创下新高。 这背后，是超长假期、天气晴好、运力保障等因素共同促成的"天时地利人和"。 然而值得注意的是，与客运系统持续高位运行形成对比，大宗商品与部分线下服 务消费的复苏节奏则显得相对平缓。这一"出行热、消费温"的冷暖图景，不仅 勾勒出年初内需复苏的真实轮廓，可能也为年后不久的全国两会政策基调提供了 重要注脚。 2026 年春运将迎来一幅"万马奔腾"的胜景。根据交通运输部官方预测，今年春 运 40 天全社会人员流动总量有望创历史新高，同时单日 ...

Core Insights - The first week of the Spring Festival travel rush saw over 1.4 billion people moving across regions, indicating a significant increase in travel activity compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Transportation Statistics - The total inter-regional flow of people exceeded 1.4 billion, with road travel accounting for over 1.3 billion [1] - Railway passenger volume surpassed 86 million, while waterway passenger volume exceeded 4.9 million [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached over 16 million, reflecting a growing reliance on air travel during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Trends in Travel Behavior - An increasing number of domestic aircraft are being deployed for route operations, enhancing capacity and service [1] - There is a strong demand for short-distance travel and ride-hailing services, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1] - The concepts of "reverse Spring Festival travel" and "fast travel, slow tourism" have become popular choices for many families this year [1]

公路网流量普遍增长，高峰出现在节后。春节假期延长、公众出行增多，公路网流量将创新高。全省高 速公路日均出口流量约为342万至359万辆，同比增长约4.5%，将再创春节新高；预计2月21日(正月初 五)起，高速公路局部路段返程流量增长明显，最高日将出现在23日(假期最后一天)，流量约为419万至 440万辆；全省高速公路省界通道日均流量为121.1万辆，同比增长4%。普通国省道日均断面流量将达 到11750至12320辆，同比增长约5%；流量最高日预计也是23日，断面流量约为15260至16000辆；全省 普通国省道省界通道日均流量为59.8万辆。 中短途出行以自驾为主。据预测，春节自驾出行的公众占比近80%。截至2025年底，我省高速公路总里 程达5560公里，去年新建成常泰、南京新生圩等过江通道，路网更加通达。道路条件、私家车特别是新 能源车出行保持增长态势，加之9天高速公路免费的车主福利，将对春节期间路网保通保畅、充电服务 和高速救援带来更多的挑战。 2月10日，记者从2026年春节假期公众出行服务新闻发布会上获悉，今年春节假期江苏出行变化多多： 出行节奏从集中迁徙转向"多次出行、分段流动"；交通方式上自 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season, with over 1.4 billion trips recorded in the first week alone, and an expected total of 9.5 billion trips throughout the entire period [1][2][3] - The transportation sector is experiencing a collaborative effort across various modes, including rail, road, and air, to accommodate the surge in travel demand, particularly in major cities and tourist destinations [3][4] - The trend of "reverse Spring Festival travel," where families travel to urban areas to celebrate the holiday, is gaining popularity, with ticket bookings for this trend increasing by 84% compared to last year [6][7] Group 2 - The travel demand during this year's Spring Festival is characterized by a mix of rigid needs such as returning home and visiting friends, alongside more flexible travel options like short trips and educational tours for children [6][8] - The aviation sector is preparing for a busy travel season, with an estimated 21.9 million passengers expected on the first day of the Spring Festival travel period, and a total of 95 million passengers anticipated throughout [3][4] - The road transport sector is also seeing a high volume of self-driving trips, which are projected to account for around 80% of all travel, with significant increases in highway traffic expected [4][6]

Group 1 - The total inter-regional passenger flow during the first week of the Spring Festival exceeded 1.4 billion trips, with road transport accounting for over 1.3 billion trips, railway passenger volume exceeding 86 million, waterway passenger volume over 4.9 million, and civil aviation passenger volume surpassing 16 million [1] - The aviation sector saw an increase in domestic aircraft operations, with China Southern Airlines launching the C919 aircraft on 8 routes, executing over 1,000 flights [3] - The Spring Festival marks the first since the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure, with the Qiongzhou Strait expected to transport over 4.66 million passengers and over 1.17 million vehicles in 40 days [5] Group 2 - The Qiongzhou Strait has introduced 4 dedicated transport ships for new energy vehicles, capable of transporting 160 vehicles per trip, with a daily capacity of 5,000 vehicles [7] - The "reverse Spring Festival + fast travel slow tourism" trend has emerged, allowing families to shorten travel time and extend their stay at scenic spots [9] - On February 10, the ninth day of the Spring Festival, the national railway is expected to send 13.95 million passengers, with 1,363 additional trains planned [10]

2026年的春节，注定是一个"流动的中国"格外忙碌的春节。长达九天的"史上最长春节假期"，不仅带来 了团圆与欢聚的期盼，也掀起了近年来最旺盛的出行热潮。无论是返乡探亲，还是举家旅游，人们用脚 步丈量着年的温度，也用出行数据勾勒出一幅充满活力的春运图景。 "综合研判，全社会跨区域人员流动量将达到95亿人次，预计创历史新高。"近日，在国新办举行的新闻 发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任李春临说。 今年春运自2月2日拉开序幕，目前已平稳运行一周。交通运输部数据显示，春运首周（2月2日至8 日），全社会跨区域人员流动量超14亿人次。其中，公路人员流动量超13亿人次，铁路客运量超8600万 人次，水路客运量超490万人次，民航客运量超1600万人次。 除了客流规模刷新纪录，今年春运也呈现出一些新趋势。与往年相比，因学生放假、假期时间较长、节 后返校返岗等因素，今年春运呈现出明显的"节前相对分散、假期旅游旺盛、节后相对集中"的新特点。 另外，随着"反向春运""先回家、再出游"等新趋势的流行，春节出行不再只是简单的"往返跑"，而是逐 渐演变为一场融合团聚与休闲的"分段式"旅程。 中国旅行社协会联合途牛旅游网发布的《2026春节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the introduction of significant discounts on train tickets during the Spring Festival travel period, particularly for less popular routes, to encourage "reverse Spring Festival travel" and balance passenger flow [1][5][7]. Group 1: Discounted Ticket Information - During the Spring Festival, certain train routes, such as the G4404 from Shenyang North to Beijing Chaoyang, offer tickets at a remarkable discount of 80%, with prices as low as 76 yuan [2][4]. - The discounts are primarily available for second-class seats on high-speed trains and hard seats or hard sleepers on regular trains, with the highest discounts observed for night departures [5][7]. - Specific examples include the K4044 train from Shenyang North to Beijing, offering hard seats at 53 yuan (5.5% discount) and other trains with varying discounts from 2% to 50% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Strategy and Passenger Flow Management - The railway department employs a market-oriented pricing mechanism to manage passenger flow, promoting discounts on less popular routes to encourage off-peak travel and optimize resource utilization [5][7]. - The strategy aims to convert "empty return trains" into "passenger-carrying trains," effectively addressing ticket shortages during peak travel times [7][8]. - Discounts are mainly available for travel before and after the peak holiday period, with the most significant discounts occurring during low passenger flow times [6][7]. Group 3: Ticket Availability and Booking - Travelers can find discounted tickets clearly marked with "discount" on the railway 12306 app, facilitating easier identification of promotional fares [7][8]. - It is important for travelers to verify the departure times and dates, as many discounted tickets are for night trains, which may lead to confusion if not carefully checked [8].

Group 1 - The Spring Festival travel rush has seen over 1.4 billion people moving across regions in the first week, indicating a significant increase in travel activity [1] - The traffic flow at the Wu Zhuang toll station in Anhui has increased, with a peak predicted entry of approximately 115,000 vehicles from the east to the west before the festival [1] - Didi's demand for intercity rides has risen by 23% during the Spring Festival, with specific increases of 75% for tourist attractions, 60% for ski resorts, and 38% for large shopping areas [1] Group 2 - This year's Spring Festival marks the first operation of the domestically produced C919 aircraft on multiple routes, with over 1,000 flights planned [2] - The transportation capacity for new energy vehicles across the Qiongzhou Strait has been enhanced, with four dedicated transport ships capable of carrying 160 vehicles each, increasing capacity by 60% [3] Group 3 - Volunteer services at train stations, such as Longchun Station, have been implemented to assist travelers, with over 10,000 passengers served during the peak period [4] - The trend of "reverse Spring Festival travel" and "slow travel" has emerged, with families combining visits to relatives with leisure travel [5] Group 4 - The introduction of a "smart platform system" at stations like Bengbu has improved safety and efficiency, with real-time monitoring and alerts for passenger behavior [6] - The opening of the upgraded section of the Jinggang'ao Expressway has significantly reduced waiting times for freight transport, enhancing logistics efficiency [7] - The demand for traditional food items, such as steamed buns, has surged, with daily shipping volumes increasing fivefold during the peak season for New Year goods [7]

背上行囊，踏上归途，本周一，一年一度的春运再次开启。以往，大家都是同一个方向——故乡。但近年来，"反向春运"的人也越来越多，他们同样带着大 包小包，是父母们，看孩子。 一边感慨带得不够多，一边热情地分享，今年，"反向春运"去大城市与子女团圆的不少人还可以享受到车票打折。 互联网上，许多开往大城市的打折车票，正以极低的票价引发关注。比如，从长沙开往广州的快9275次普速列车，打了2折，只要18元。 国铁广州局客运部高级工程师 张敏：以广东省为例，根据监测，2026年节前到达广东省的客流达到1430.2万人次，增幅达到3.6%。这一趋势可以看出，反 向团圆的春运出行模式越来越受欢迎。 民警舒海霞，已经在南昌站执勤十四年，她目睹过不少返乡务工人员无奈丢弃用惯的工具。去年春运期间，她联系到一家快递网点，询问能否在春运期间帮 忙免费寄送这些工具。网点老板也是农民工出身，一听就非常支持。就这样，南昌站成为全国首个在春运期间为务工人员免费邮寄禁限带工具的车站。 今年，从北到南，从东到西，各大铁路局都拿出真金白银的诚意。国铁广州局今年就在八条线路72趟列车，推出了优惠车票。旅客的反馈也很热烈，2月7日 到13日的优惠时段，一 ...

一把被安检拦下的电钻，曾是多少务工者春运时犯难的一刻。这些谋生的"家伙事"用得顺手，来年如果换了新的打工地自然还想接 着用，不舍得扔，可如果自费邮寄邮费又比买新的还贵。 央视网消息：春运，是中国人一年一度的团圆之约，也是检验交通服务能力的"大考"。特别是2026年，9天"超长"春节假期的春 运，返乡探亲与旅游出行需求叠加释放，各地铁路部门充分考虑旅客的多元需求，让团圆有了更多方案。 一边感慨带得不够多，一边热情地分享。2026年，不少"反向春运"去大城市与子女团圆的，不少人还可以享受到车票打折。互联网 上，许多开往大城市的打折车票，正以极低的票价引发关注。比如，从长沙开往广州的快9275次普速列车打了2折，只要18元。 国铁广州局客运部高级工程师张敏表示，以广东省为例，根据监测，2026年节前到达广东省的客流达到1430.2万人次，增幅达到 3.6%。这一趋势可以看出，反向团圆的春运出行模式越来越受欢迎。 背上行囊，踏上归途。本周一，一年一度的春运再次开启。以往，大家都是同一个方向——故乡。但近年来，"反向春运"的人也越 来越多，他们同样带着大包小包，是父母们看孩子。 2026年，从北到南、从东到西，各大铁路 ...