Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - External uncertainties are high, while internal policies are implemented steadily, which is basically in line with the bond market expectations. After the release of the meeting communiqué, bond yields remained stable. Looking ahead, the main contradiction in the bond market remains unchanged. Domestically, the direction of policy easing is certain, but the implementation pace is to be determined. Internationally, Sino-US relations are likely to ease, but the process is highly uncertain. The bond market is not pessimistic overall, but the upside and downside potential is limited, and yields are likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy as the primary approach and a trading strategy as a supplementary one [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Meeting's Assessment of the Situation - The meeting is satisfied with the economic performance in Q1 but highly concerned about overseas uncertainties. The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation, and external shocks are increasing [2][3] 3.2 Policy Thinking - Strengthen bottom-line thinking and prepare sufficient contingency plans. Due to the long - term, severe, and uncertain impact of current tariffs, the direction of policy hedging is certain, and the policy level is based on bottom - line thinking. However, the specific implementation rhythm needs to dynamically assess internal and external changes. Currently, the focus should be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2][3] 3.3 Specific Policies - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: There are differences in the wording of monetary and fiscal policies. Fiscal policy should be fully utilized and more proactive, while monetary policy still involves timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with structural innovations such as supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][4] - **Risk Resolution**: In the areas of local debt and real estate, the wording is more detailed, but the tone remains "continuously consolidating", indicating affirmation of the existing policy direction and a low probability of a shift to strong stimulus [2][4] - **Domestic Demand Policies**: These policies are given a large space and a prominent position in the report, but they mainly emphasize bottom - line thinking, such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihoods, and supporting enterprises severely affected by tariffs [2][4]

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The macroeconomic focus is on "coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," emphasizing the need for the U.S. to adhere to WTO rules and eliminate tariffs on China[2] - The first quarter GDP growth of 5.4% is influenced by factors like export rush, and April exports are expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year due to tariff impacts[2][6] - The 5% GDP growth target for the year remains a priority, with historical context suggesting reaffirmation in mid-year meetings[2] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Expectations - The report suggests that the pace of policy implementation may accelerate in response to external pressures, advocating for proactive measures to expand domestic demand[2] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus could range from 1.5 to 3 trillion yuan, based on the estimated impact of tariffs on GDP[2][8] - The concept of "bottom-line thinking" implies that policies should aim for comprehensive support rather than merely maintaining minimum standards, indicating potential for more aggressive policy measures[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - Proposed measures include monetary easing, targeted support for export enterprises, and initiatives to boost consumption among low-income groups[2][8] - Infrastructure investment and real estate policies are expected to be prioritized, with potential for increased government spending and relaxed purchasing restrictions in major cities[2][8] - The report outlines various policy scenarios and their potential economic impacts, suggesting a range of 630 billion to 1.37 trillion yuan in necessary countermeasures depending on tariff conditions[8]

文 ｜ 杨帆 明明 姜娅 于翔 玛西高娃 遥远 郑辰 任柳蓉 彭阳 联系人：陶然 ▍ 强化底线思维，因时而动用好政策工具箱。 2 0 2 5年4月政治局会议明确指出，虽然一季度中国经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行风险显著上升，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要 进一步稳固。在此基调下，会议再次提出"强化底线思维"，对外部压力从最坏处准备，努力争取最好的结果。因此，政策将因时而动，及时尽 早推出稳就业稳经济的逆周期调节政策，巩固经济与社会稳定。 ▍ 外部方面，特朗普的关税政策仍可能视自身压力而不断反复，中美关系可能保持"区间运行"的状态，提升经济韧性、保护市场主体、团结国 际力量尤为重要。 自特朗普上任以来，其关税落地速度快，幅度高，决策具有较大随意性，远超此前外界预期。但是，其关税政策既缺乏清晰的路径计划，也没 有充分的后果研判。近期，特朗普在关税问题上的表态出现缓和迹象，主要源于一系列短中期压力，如金融市场压力、库存与通胀压力、中期 选举压力等。但是，我们判断特朗普的关税政策仍可能视自身压力而不断反复，中美关系可能保持"区间运行"的状态，在此背景下，更需要提 升经济韧性、保护市场主体、团结国际力量。本次会议 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The meeting occurred amid unclear U.S. tariff policies, reflecting a characteristic of "progress and retention" in policy direction[3] - The meeting identified "increased external shocks" as the main issue affecting China's economy[4] - The overall requirement to address external shocks is to "strengthen bottom-line thinking, prepare sufficient plans, and solidly carry out economic work"[4] Group 2: Economic Measures - The policy tone remains largely unchanged, but new requirements have been introduced, emphasizing "four stabilizations" instead of "six stabilizations" from previous meetings[5] - New structural monetary policy tools are expected to be introduced to support the real economy, with a projected reserve requirement gap of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for 2025[6][7] - The meeting emphasized the importance of boosting consumption, particularly for middle- and low-income groups, to enhance economic growth[8] Group 3: Support for Affected Sectors - Multiple measures will be taken to support enterprises affected by tariff shocks, including increased financing support and integration of domestic and foreign trade[9] - The meeting highlighted the need to protect livelihoods, particularly for those in industries heavily impacted by tariffs, by enhancing unemployment insurance and social assistance systems[9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The risk of a significant downturn in the stock market is low, with expectations of a structural market trend, particularly favoring the consumer sector[10][11] - The meeting indicated that existing incremental policies are in reserve and will be timely released based on changing circumstances, particularly as tariff situations clarify[15]

4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。总体上看，会议认为今年以 来我国经济发展向好，但"持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。 会议直面"外部冲击影响加大"的 严峻挑战，指出"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，以"四稳"，即稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期为 抓手，强调"以我为主"的基本政策立场，扎实推动经济高质量发展，应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性。 三、重点工作：稳就业、促消费、保民生 巩固内需的首要任务仍是提振消费，以"增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用"为总目标，重点在服务消费加 大资金支持。 一是再贷款政策从普惠养老扩展至服务消费，降低服务业企业的融资成本。二是"以旧换 新"政策将扩围至文体、旅游等服务消费，资金力度将视情况从全年3,000亿增至5,000-7,000亿，或提升 社零增速2pct以上。 保民生工作，就业是重中之重。就业问题，既是企业部门经营情况的直观反映，也是居民部门提振消费 能力、改善消费预期的基础。 会议全文中"稳就业"三次出现并置于"四稳"之首。各类企业面对关税冲 击的程度不同，会议有针对性地提出"提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"。此项政策在疫情期间为就业岗 ...

报 告 正 文 有"底线思维"，有"预案"。 会议将国际经贸斗争与国内经济工作并列，强化底线思维以应对外部冲击，当下已经提前做好各类预案和储备政策， 当然这不代表所 有储备政策都要马上出台实行。 会议认为应对外部冲击的抓手是"坚定不移办好自己的事"，即稳定发展国内经济。具体提出"四稳"， 其中稳就业和稳企业在前，这 也是经济从供给端对应的思路 ，而稳市场和稳预期在后。 政策力度加大，态度更加积极 。 从 未来部署 来看， 一方面 ，政策力度加大。会议提到政策要加强 超常规逆周期 调节，以抵消" 外部冲击 "。 另一方面 ，态度 上更加积极，更注重政策出台的 时机和效果 ，需要根据实际经济和国际形势变化 及时推出、用好用足 相关政策。 货币创设新工具，财政节奏有望加快。 货币政策方面， 央行工具箱继续丰富，后续将创设新的结构性货币工具以及政策性金融工具，用于 科技创新、消费和外贸 领域。此外，货币政策仍将适时降准降息。对于适时，我们理解仍是关注美联储降息时点，并综合考虑实体供给约束。 财政政策方面 ，会议提到要加快地方政府 专项债券和超长期特别国债等发行使用。年初至今，政府债发行的主力是普通国债和用于化债的置换 ...

消息一出即引起市场关注，当前光伏洗牌行情下，各企业多数应对周期波动自顾不暇，业界再融资基本 停摆，此次引入百亿战投增资永祥股份，不仅是市场和机构以真金白银对公司投出"信任票"，更在应对 周期"持久战"中为公司输送能量，有利于公司进一步巩固经营韧性，为后续发力提供弹药支持。 储备过冬粮草：优化资本结构与增强抗风险能力的双重考量 3月28日晚间，通威股份（600438）发布公告称，公司子公司永祥股份拟引入战略投资者暨实施增资扩 股，战略投资者合计向永祥股份增资不超过100亿元，合计取得永祥股份增资后的股权比例不超过 27.03%。增资扩股完成后，公司仍将直接与间接持有永祥股份不低于72.97%的股份，永祥股份将继续 纳入公司合并报表。 公司的成本控制能力同样出色，2023年高纯晶硅平均生产成本已降至4.2万元/吨以内，显著低于行业平 均水平，即使在硅料价格下行周期仍保持单吨净利润超4.5万元，在24年上半年N型硅料占比大幅提升的 背景下，永祥股份单位综合电耗降至50度以下，硅耗已低至1.04kg/Kg-Si以内,成本优势始终是公司穿越 周期的关键支撑。 永祥股份全球市占率超25%，在光伏产业链上游形成强势话语权， ...