金融市场，一个由数字、情绪与叙事交织的复杂系统，对多数人而言意味着波动与风险，但对于友山基 金首席投资官金焰而言，这更像是一个需要运用精密数学逻辑与深刻人性洞察去求解的课题。拥有数学 博士与商学院博士双重学术背景，辗转于华尔街顶级投行与买方机构的核心战场，最终将国际视野与实 战经验深耕于中国市场的独特土壤，金焰的职业生涯本身，就是一部关于理性选择、持续进化与边界认 知的生动注脚。 [从象牙塔到交易台] "如果要用'夏普比率'来衡量职业生涯，我认为大学教授的'夏普比率'无疑是最高的——职业路径稳定， 波动率极低。而做投资则截然不同。"访谈伊始，金焰用他最熟悉的金融术语，轻松道出了当年人生关 键岔路口的选择逻辑。 出身于中国科学院家庭，最初的理想是在大学讲堂传承知识、专攻学术研究。然而，上世纪90年代末， 金融工程与量化投资浪潮的涌动，与商学院更具吸引力的职业前景，促使这位数学博士在哥伦比亚大学 攻读了第二个博士学位。毕业时，面对高盛的橄榄枝与稳定的教职机会，他做出了一个考量"机会成 本"的理性决策："当时我想，教书未来还有机会，但去业界闯一闯的机会不多。"这份对未知领域的好 奇与挑战欲，驱使他投身于充满不确定性 ...

庄建球强调，安全生产是民生大事，一丝一毫不能放松。要全力做好本轮雨雪冰冻天气应对工作，密切 关注气象形势演变，多渠道、广覆盖发布灾害风险预警预报，强化除冰清雪、应急抢险、隐患排查，确 保群众出行安全畅通、城市运行平稳有序。要扎实开展高层建筑重大火灾风险隐患排查整治行动，全面 摸清风险底数，严格落实"专家+专班"机制，坚持分类施治、系统治理，筑牢高层建筑"防火墙"。要紧 盯重点领域，持续深化市场仓储物流、"三个全链条"等专项整治，严管人员密集场所，强化居民楼院防 范，抓好森林防灭火，全面消除火灾隐患。要拧紧责任链条，严格落实"三管三必须"，加强应急值守， 严格监管执法，推动安全生产形势稳定向好，为经济社会高质量发展提供安全稳定环境。 陈宏伟、石秀田、王滔、张艳敏等出席。 12月12日，市安防委会召开全体（扩大）会议，市长庄建球出席并讲话，强调要深入学习贯彻习近平总 书记关于安全生产的重要论述重要指示，按照省委十一届十次全会和市委十二届九次全会部署要求，更 好统筹发展和安全，强化风险意识、底线思维、极限思维，做好本轮雨雪冰冻天气应对，持续加强和改 进安全生产工作，切实维护人民群众生命财产安全和社会大局稳定。 会议 ...

陈宏伟、石秀田、王滔、张艳敏等出席。 庄建球强调，安全生产是民生大事，一丝一毫不能放松。要全力做好本轮雨雪冰冻天气应对工作， 密切关注气象形势演变，多渠道、广覆盖发布灾害风险预警预报，强化除冰清雪、应急抢险、隐患排 查，确保群众出行安全畅通、城市运行平稳有序。要扎实开展高层建筑重大火灾风险隐患排查整治行 动，全面摸清风险底数，严格落实"专家+专班"机制，坚持分类施治、系统治理，筑牢高层建筑"防火 墙"。要紧盯重点领域，持续深化市场仓储物流、"三个全链条"等专项整治，严管人员密集场所，强化 居民楼院防范，抓好森林防灭火，全面消除火灾隐患。要拧紧责任链条，严格落实"三管三必须"，加强 应急值守，严格监管执法，推动安全生产形势稳定向好，为经济社会高质量发展提供安全稳定环境。 12月12日，市安防委会召开全体（扩大）会议，市长庄建球出席并讲话，强调要深入学习贯彻习近 平总书记关于安全生产的重要论述重要指示，按照省委十一届十次全会和市委十二届九次全会部署要 求，更好统筹发展和安全，强化风险意识、底线思维、极限思维，做好本轮雨雪冰冻天气应对，持续加 强和改进安全生产工作，切实维护人民群众生命财产安全和社会大局稳定。 会议 ...

01 高楠很强啊， 最近行情震荡回调，但高楠管的多只基金，在本周三依旧创了历史新高。 因为业绩好，基金规模也爆发式增长。 永赢稳健增强，这是一只"固收+"基金，今年规模从10亿元增至349亿元。前几天刚发了公告，暂停机构 通过第三方渠道的申购，4季度规模应该又增加了不少。 永赢睿信，这是高楠的代表基金，今年涨了86.93%，规模从13亿元增至144亿元。 我们去年系统写过高楠。 投资方法是自下而上，左侧操作，布局基本面改善+业绩爆发的机会，多次抓住拐点行情，持仓呈现出 行业轮动的特征。 另外，高楠选股能力强，还擅长交易，带动基金业绩增长的同时，也让基金呈现出"换手率高"的特征。 去永赢基金后，应该说高楠还是在用这套投资方法管基金。 换手率上， "永赢睿信"去年的换手率是780%，今年上半年是856%，和之前在国泰基金、恒越基金时相比，并没有 特别明显的下降。 行业配置上， 2024年上半年，重仓行业以电子（半导体）、轻工制造（新消费）、电力设备、有色金属、军工为主。 今年上半年，医药（创新药）成了第一大重仓行业，轻工制造（新消费）的仓位有所降低，通信（光模 块）后来居上，成了第三大重仓行业，对电子行业的持仓， ...

"逆""跨"结合，提质增效 ——12 月政治局会议解读 2025 证 12 证 8 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 -8096 证zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 路自愿 证136-7105 -7587 证luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525070001 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock ...

海南日报评论员 风险防控和安全保障是事关海南自由贸易港建设成败得失的最关键变量。习近平总书记在听取海南 自由贸易港建设工作汇报时强调，"越是扩大开放，越要统筹发展和安全，牢牢守住安全底线。"封关在 即，牢记嘱托，省委八届八次全会就"牢牢守住安全底线"作出专门部署，充分表明"始终把安全保障放 在前提位置"的坚定决心。 始终把安全保障放在前提位置 ──六论学习贯彻省委八届八次全会精神 坚持底线思维，牢牢守住安全底线。"备豫不虞，为国常道。"习近平总书记多次指出，要善于运 用"底线思维"的方法，凡事从坏处准备，努力争取最好的结果，这样才能有备无患、遇事不慌，牢牢把 握主动权。这启示我们，面对全岛封关运作、进一步扩大开放可能带来的不确定性和风险挑战，必须坚 持底线思维，增强系统思维，把风险想得更复杂一点，把挑战想得更严峻一些，把对策做得更全面一 点，把准备做得更充分一些，才能赢得先机、争取主动。牢牢守住安全底线，不是让我们"静观其变、 原地踏步"，而是既要有防范风险的先手，也要有应对和化解风险挑战的高招;既要打好防范和抵御风险 的有准备之战，也要打好化险为夷、转危为机的战略主动战，做到"稳扎稳打、步步为营"。 提升能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The underlying logic of economic and financial policies supports "new quality productivity" and "bottom-line thinking" [2][3] - New growth points for the banking industry in 2026 include: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, with ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in digital and green infrastructure [2][3] - Manufacturing loans are expected to remain resilient due to sustained export strength and opportunities from traditional industry upgrades and green finance [2][3] - Technology finance loans continue to grow rapidly, especially in the artificial intelligence industry chain [2][3] - Wealth management, particularly for high-net-worth clients, is expected to see significant growth [2][3] - Real estate and consumption are expected to stabilize, with marginal policy easing anticipated in 2026, although a "steady upward" trend requires unexpected policy support [2][3] - The mapping of business to investment indicates that banking operations can remain stable, with bank stocks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic and Financial Policy Framework - The focus is on developing new quality productivity to break through economic growth ceilings, which is the core direction for future financial resource allocation [9] - Bottom-line thinking emphasizes the prevention of systemic risks related to real estate and local debt, providing a stable macro environment for the transition between old and new growth drivers [9][10] New Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure investment in 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.51%, down 7.84 percentage points from 2024 [20] - New infrastructure, particularly digital and green projects, is expected to drive growth in 2026, with a focus on regional coordination and urban renewal [20][24] Manufacturing Loans - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, supported by exports and traditional industry upgrades, with a market potential of 10 trillion over five years [31] - The growth of green finance remains significant, with major banks increasing their green credit ratios [31] Technology Finance - Technology finance is projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% in high-tech loans [31] - There is a notable disparity in technology loan ratios between large and small banks, indicating room for growth in smaller institutions [31] Wealth Management - The wealth management sector is experiencing a shift from "scale-driven" to "precise matching," benefiting high-net-worth clients [31] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies are expected to see marginal easing, with a focus on stabilizing the market in 2026 [31] - Consumption is projected to continue under a "policy support" framework, with internal dynamics needing to strengthen [31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of balancing development and security as a fundamental principle for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][3] - The article highlights that safety is a prerequisite for development, and development is a guarantee for safety, indicating a systematic approach to governance [3] - It notes that China's grain production capacity has consistently remained above 1.3 trillion jin, ensuring food security for the population [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the need to address security risks as a means to eliminate development obstacles, focusing on key areas such as food, energy, and supply chain security [4] - It outlines systematic deployments in the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance national security capabilities and ensure effective risk prevention and resolution [4] - The commentary suggests that China's economy has the resilience and capacity to navigate challenges while maintaining rapid development and long-term stability [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of entrepreneurs adopting a "bottom-line thinking" approach, especially in a challenging fundraising environment. It suggests that businesses should prepare for a scenario where external capital is not available and focus on operational efficiency and core business fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Mindset - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to eliminate the goal of burning cash for capital and instead return to the essence of business, which is efficiency and operations [1]. - The concept of "bottom-line thinking" implies treating available funds as the last resources and preparing for three years of tough conditions without relying on external support [1]. Group 2: Event Promotion - The article promotes an upcoming event called "Black Horse Mountain and Sea Plan," scheduled for November 20-22, where participants will engage in discussions about brand positioning, securing investment, and managing cash flow [2][4]. - The event will feature prominent figures in the investment and entrepreneurship space, including Feng Weidong and Niu Wenwen, who will guide participants through various entrepreneurial challenges [4][5]. Group 3: Learning Outcomes - Participants will gain insights into the leadership qualities required for founders in the context of AI, international expansion, and market penetration [8]. - The program includes collaborative workshops focused on brand positioning and practical exercises aimed at enhancing brand strength [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating development and security in China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting that high-quality development and high-level security must interact positively to address internal and external risks and challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Security Integration - Development and security are interdependent; development is the foundation for solving all problems, while security is a prerequisite for high-quality development [1][2]. - The current economic transition period presents complex challenges that require a balanced approach to development and security to avoid systemic issues [1][2]. Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The Fourth Plenary Session outlines systematic deployments to enhance national security capabilities, focusing on food, energy, supply chains, and infrastructure security [2]. - Emphasis is placed on addressing risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions to ensure orderly risk resolution [2]. Group 3: Strategic Approach - A dynamic balance between resource allocation efficiency and risk reduction is essential, requiring precise and coordinated policy implementation [2]. - The need for a cautious mindset is highlighted, advocating for deep risk assessment and preparedness for unexpected events [2]. Group 4: Economic Resilience - China's economic growth is characterized by stability, resilience, and potential, enabling better integration of development and security [3]. - The focus remains on high-quality development as a primary task while ensuring high-level security as a top priority, aiming for a unified approach to reform, development speed, and social capacity [3].