Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express and Shentong Express, while other companies like Yunda Express and ZTO Express are also highlighted for their potential [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and business volume at 16.40 billion pieces, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry accumulated revenue of 839.42 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year, and a total business volume of 112.05 billion pieces, marking an 18.7% increase [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong resilience in demand, driven by trends such as lightweight and small parcel deliveries, as well as the growth of reverse logistics and opportunities in lower-tier markets [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and ZTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [4]. - The business volume for these companies was: SF Express at 1.377 billion pieces (+33.7%), Shentong at 2.181 billion pieces (+11.9%), Yunda at 2.162 billion pieces (+7.6%), and ZTO at 2.583 billion pieces (+20.8%) [4]. Company Insights - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), with a business volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [5]. - The market share for SF Express increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 8.2% [5]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector, with a focus on reducing price wars and improving profitability for leading companies [6]. - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations for continued growth driven by e-commerce and new market demands [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, with a cumulative completion of 1120.5 billion pieces from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. In July alone, the volume reached 164 billion pieces, up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. - The industry's revenue growth lags behind volume growth, with a cumulative revenue of 8394.2 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The average revenue per piece in July was 7.36 yuan, down 5.33% year-on-year [2]. - Market concentration has slightly decreased, with the CR8 index at 86.9, down 0.1 from June. Major players like SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have seen varying growth rates in volume and revenue per piece, indicating a temporary easing of competitive pressure [3]. - Regulatory measures against "involution" have led to price increases in key production areas, with minimum prices raised to 1.4 yuan per piece in Guangdong province starting August 4, 2025. This is expected to improve profitability in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth in volume, but revenue growth remains slower, indicating a reliance on price reductions to drive volume [2]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with major companies experiencing seasonal volume declines and slight decreases in average revenue per piece. The market concentration has decreased slightly, suggesting a reduction in competitive intensity [3]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions have aimed to curb excessive competition, leading to price adjustments that could enhance profitability for express delivery companies [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry under the new regulatory framework, recommending attention to leading companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [5].

Core Insights - In July, major A-share express delivery companies reported a general year-on-year increase in express business revenue, while the revenue per ticket continued to decline [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.287 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, with a business volume of 2.181 billion tickets, up 11.92%, and a revenue per ticket of 1.97 yuan, down 1.50% [1] - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 5.371 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 12.08%, with a business volume of 2.583 billion tickets, up 20.79%, and a revenue per ticket of 2.08 yuan, down 7.20% [1] - Yunda Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.120 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, with a business volume of 2.162 billion tickets, up 7.56%, and a revenue per ticket of 1.91 yuan, down 3.54% [1] - SF Holding's total revenue from express logistics, supply chain, and international business was 24.847 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, with express logistics revenue of 18.657 billion yuan, up 14.97%, and a business volume of 1.377 billion tickets, up 33.69%, with a revenue per ticket of 13.55 yuan, down 14.02% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The State Post Bureau reported that the postal industry revenue reached 144.98 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with express business revenue at 120.64 billion yuan, up 8.9% [2] - The postal industry has seen growth in revenue and volume from January to July, but the average ticket price has declined [2] - To prevent a "price war," the State Post Bureau has implemented measures to combat "below-cost" competition, prompting express companies to raise ticket prices and focus on technology development, service upgrades, process optimization, and brand building [2] - Various regions, including Beijing and Guangdong, have introduced "anti-involution" policies, with Guangdong raising the base price by 0.4 yuan per ticket, setting a minimum collection price of 1.4 yuan per ticket [3] - Shentong Express has committed to abandoning the "price for volume" model, focusing on quality upgrades and efficiency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a significant transformation aimed at countering "involution" competition, with companies in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang announcing price increases to promote rational development [1][3][11]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from August 5, 2025, express delivery companies in Guangdong will adjust their pricing standards, with a minimum price set at 1.4 yuan per ticket [1][3]. - In July, the Yiwu postal management authority mandated an increase in the minimum price for express delivery to 1.2 yuan, reflecting a broader trend of price hikes in key logistics areas [1][3]. - Reports indicate that the price increase in Guangdong has been confirmed by multiple leading express companies, with adjustments primarily affecting low-weight packages [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has seen a 20.1% increase in business volume in the first five months of 2025, but the average price per ticket has dropped by 8.2% to 7.5 yuan, indicating a "volume increase, price drop" trend [7][10]. - Major express companies reported a decline in average revenue per ticket in June 2025, with significant drops for companies like SF Express and Yunda [7][10]. - The competitive landscape has led to a challenging environment for franchisees and frontline workers, with profit margins being severely squeezed [8][10]. Group 3: Impact on E-commerce - E-commerce merchants are the first to feel the impact of the price increases, with reported hikes ranging from 0.2 to 1 yuan depending on the weight of the packages [6][13]. - Some e-commerce businesses are relocating their logistics operations to areas with lower express delivery costs to mitigate the impact of rising expenses [13][14]. - Merchants face limited options in response to increased logistics costs, as raising product prices could lead to decreased sales due to price sensitivity [14]. Group 4: Regulatory and Industry Response - The recent price adjustments are supported by regulatory measures aimed at preventing express companies from engaging in predatory pricing practices [4][11]. - Industry experts suggest that this round of price increases could mark a critical turning point for the express delivery sector, moving towards a more rational pricing model [11][14]. - There is a call for collaboration among e-commerce platforms, merchants, and express companies to establish a more sustainable pricing structure [14].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a significant transformation aimed at countering "involution" competition, with companies in key regions like Zhejiang Yiwu and Guangdong initiating price increases to promote rational development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Price Increase Initiatives - Yiwu has led the price increase movement, with the local postal management bureau raising the minimum price per express delivery ticket by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, opposing "involution" competition [5][6]. - Starting from August 4, Guangdong province has also raised the base price for express services by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with a minimum charge of 1.4 yuan, and companies face penalties for undercutting this price [5][6][8]. - Major express brands, particularly those in the Tongda system, are implementing these price adjustments, primarily affecting low-weight e-commerce packages [8][10]. Group 2: Impact on E-commerce and Logistics - E-commerce merchants are the first to feel the impact of these price hikes, with increases typically ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 yuan, and heavier packages seeing rises of over 1 yuan [10]. - Merchants are facing increased logistics costs, with one merchant reporting an additional monthly expense of over ten thousand yuan due to price increases [10][11]. - Some large e-commerce businesses are relocating their warehouses to regions with lower express delivery costs, reflecting the pressure of rising logistics expenses [20][21]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is at a critical juncture, with ongoing price wars leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" scenario, as evidenced by a 20.1% increase in business volume but an 8.2% drop in average price in early 2025 [13][14]. - The survival of franchise operators and frontline couriers is increasingly difficult due to the industry's reliance on low pricing strategies, which has severely squeezed profit margins [14][18]. - Experts suggest that this round of price increases, driven by regulatory support and market conditions, could mark a pivotal moment for the industry to return to rational pricing [18][21].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a rapid response to the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant price increases and stock performance improvements since early July 2023 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The express delivery index surged by 17.10% since July, with notable stock price increases: Shentong Express up over 50%, YTO Express up over 30%, and Yunda and Jiacheng International both up over 20% [1]. - Specific stock performance data shows that companies like Jiantong Express and Hengkeda Xin saw price increases of 53.32% and 31.23%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, 2023, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [3]. - Major express companies have raised their base prices, with Zhongtong and YTO reaching 1.46 yuan and 1.43 yuan, respectively [3]. - The average express ticket price nationwide dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the express delivery industry faces a severe profit squeeze, with net profits per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and YTO continuing to decline [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing a "growth without profit" phenomenon, leading to a vicious cycle of price competition and operational challenges [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts: Zhongtong by 3.4 billion yuan, YTO by 2.66 billion yuan, and others similarly benefiting [12][13]. - The express delivery market is expected to maintain growth, with projections of 1.758 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [39]. - The industry may see consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, as evidenced by Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which aims to enhance competitiveness [21][43].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant rebound due to government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition, leading to a notable increase in stock prices within the sector [3][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early July, the express delivery index has surged by 17.10%, with companies like Shentong Express seeing over 50% increase in stock prices [3][4]. - Major express companies, including YTO Express and Yunda, have also reported substantial stock price increases of over 20% [3][4]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, express delivery prices in Guangdong were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with average prices exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - Other regions, such as Yiwu in Zhejiang, have also initiated price hikes, indicating a potential trend of rising prices across the industry [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the average price per ticket has been declining, with a drop from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 7.7% [15][18]. - The net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda has also been decreasing, indicating a challenging profit environment [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts, with Zhongtong potentially gaining 3.4 billion yuan [24][26]. - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a record high of 1,750.8 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [54][55]. Group 5: Structural Changes - The industry is shifting towards managing light and reverse packages due to the rise of e-commerce, which is fragmenting consumption patterns [33][34]. - Recent acquisitions, such as Shentong's purchase of Daniao Logistics, are seen as strategic moves to enhance competitiveness and address market challenges [36][58]. Group 6: Long-term Considerations - The express delivery sector has not yet achieved true capacity clearing despite years of competition, leading to ongoing price wars [51][52]. - Future stability in the market may depend on mergers and acquisitions, as well as the ability of leading companies to maintain pricing power and profitability [56][59].

Summary of Shentong Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shentong Express - **Industry**: Express Delivery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Direct Operation Rate**: Shentong Express has increased its direct operation rate to 94%, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and processing capacity, effectively reducing unit costs [2][3][4] 2. **Capacity Expansion**: The company plans to increase its capacity by nearly 80% over three years with a capital expenditure of 10 billion, raising daily capacity from 42 million items in 2021 to approximately 75 million by 2024 [2][3] 3. **Business Volume Growth**: In 2023, Shentong Express achieved a business volume growth rate of 35.2%, significantly surpassing the industry average, narrowing the market share gap with Yunda [2][6] 4. **Profitability Improvement**: Cost control and revenue optimization measures have improved the net profit per ticket, with expectations for net profit to double due to price increases in the South China region [2][12] 5. **Free Cash Flow**: The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, driven by operational model changes and capacity enhancements [2][7] 6. **Industry Policy Support**: National postal policies are aimed at preventing vicious competition in the express delivery industry, promoting high-quality development and protecting frontline employees' rights [2][8] 7. **Acquisition of Daniao Logistics**: The acquisition of Daniao Logistics for 360 million yuan is expected to help Shentong become the third-largest player in the industry and open up new cooperation opportunities [4][17] 8. **Future Profit Projections**: For 2025, Shentong Express anticipates a net profit of over 300 million yuan, with a net profit per ticket of 0.05 yuan, which could double if it reaches 0.10 yuan [4][13] 9. **Market Valuation**: The current P/E ratio is below 9, indicating that the company is undervalued compared to the industry average [4][13] 10. **Regional Price Increases**: A price increase of 0.4 yuan in the South China region is expected to significantly boost profits for Shentong and its competitors [12][14] Additional Important Content 1. **Operational Efficiency**: The company has optimized franchise management and product offerings, particularly in heavy cargo, which has contributed to its growth since 2018 [3][6] 2. **Response to Market Conditions**: Shentong Express has adapted to market changes, including the impact of the pandemic and competition from Jitu Express, which led to losses in 2020-2021 [3][6] 3. **Long-term Development Potential**: The company is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its strategic initiatives and partnerships, particularly with Alibaba [16][19] 4. **Risks**: Potential risks include a return to aggressive price competition or slower-than-expected growth in business volume, which could impact performance [20]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing significant growth despite intense competition, becoming a crucial driver for "anti-involution" in society, supported by top-down policy initiatives [1][3] - The industry's focus on "anti-involution" aims to protect the rights of consumers and couriers, addressing issues like illegal charges in rural areas, and ensuring sustainable development through reasonable profitability and income levels [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - The express delivery sector has shown a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% in the first half of the year, maintaining a strong growth rate compared to other saturated industries [3] - The implementation of "anti-involution" is intended to safeguard the legitimate rights of consumers and couriers, with a focus on ensuring reasonable income for couriers [4] - In regions with fierce price competition, such as Yiwu and Jieyang, prices have dropped to pre-2021 levels, creating pressure on franchisees to stabilize operations [5] - Successful price increases in competitive areas depend on consensus among brands and broader regional agreement [5] Long-term Development Factors - Key factors for the long-term development of the e-commerce express delivery industry include market dynamics, platform strategies, and regulatory frameworks [6] - Scale effects are crucial for reducing costs and achieving profitability; however, diminishing scale effects may necessitate the development of new business lines to sustain growth [6] - The impact of e-commerce platforms on logistics is significant, with companies pursuing differentiated supply chain strategies through self-built logistics or investments [6] - High-quality development is essential from a regulatory perspective, as it relates to social welfare and employment [6] Investment Opportunities - The current e-commerce express delivery market is in a rapid growth phase, presenting a favorable investment opportunity despite some market consolidation [7] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to drive a recovery in the market, making it a good time for investment [7] - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies and their operational capabilities, financial strength, and stability of franchise networks when assessing investment opportunities [2][8]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry in Chaoshan Region Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in the Chaoshan region is under the supervision of the Postal Administration, which implemented a price increase in early August to address losses caused by previous price wars [1][8] - Major companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are required to adhere to the market's minimum price [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Increase Implementation**: - The minimum price for 0.1 kg packages was set at 1.54 RMB for Zhongtong, 1.5 RMB for Yuantong, and 1.45 RMB for Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu [2][3] - After the price increase, Zhongtong's price rose from approximately 1.05-1.10 RMB to around 1.65 RMB, reflecting an increase of about 0.5 RMB [1][5] - **Reasons for Price Increase**: - Declining delivery fees for couriers, homogenized competition, and low pricing strategies have limited profit margins [1][8] - Companies have faced losses over the past two years due to aggressive price competition, with expectations of returning to profitability by Q4 2025 [3][8] - **Market Reactions and Future Expectations**: - Other regions, including Fujian and Yiwu, are monitoring the price increase's impact and may implement similar measures [1][9] - The overall price increase in the Chaoshan market is expected to lead to a significant recovery in profitability for franchisees [3][16] - **Customer Acceptance**: - Customer acceptance of the price increase varies based on product margins; for instance, a small kitchenware seller with low margins struggled with the price hike, while clothing retailers were less affected [7][20] - **Impact on Business Volume**: - Following the price increase on August 5, daily package volume dropped from 140-145 thousand to approximately 105 thousand due to some business shifting to the postal system [23][24] Additional Important Insights - **Revenue Distribution**: - The overall price increase of about 0.5 RMB will primarily benefit franchisees, as headquarters have canceled certain subsidies [11] - **Regulatory Measures**: - The Postal Administration will continue to monitor compliance with minimum pricing and may not intervene in customer competition post-August 20 [3][14][27] - **Market Share Dynamics**: - Zhongtong holds approximately 27% market share in the Chaoshan region, with other companies also adhering to the new pricing standards [15][17] - **Future Price Adjustments**: - Further price increases during peak seasons will depend on decisions made by headquarters and the Postal Administration [22][28] - **Sustainability of Cross-Regional Operations**: - Cross-regional collection practices are deemed unsustainable due to potential penalties and the impact on delivery timelines [25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call regarding the express delivery industry in the Chaoshan region, highlighting the implications of recent price adjustments and regulatory measures.