Group 1 - The main PTA futures contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 86,628 contracts [1] - During the week, PTA futures opened at 4820 yuan/ton, peaked at 5074 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 4696 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 4.01% [1] Group 2 - A 450,000-ton PTA plant in South China is gradually shutting down for maintenance, expected to last around two months, while a 220,000-ton plant in Northeast China is already offline [2] - The overall operating rate of major weaving production bases in China has declined, with the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region's chemical fiber weaving rate and the East China dyeing factory operating rate also showing a high-level retreat [2] - The textile enterprises' order days have slightly rebounded to 9.9 days, down by 0.5 days, while the transaction volume in Light Textile City was 504 million meters, a decrease of 65 million meters [2] Group 3 - According to Ningzheng Futures, the supply side of PTA is expected to increase, while polyester production is showing a slight decline, indicating a weakening supply-demand expectation for PTA [3] - Hualian Futures noted a significant recovery in the supply side due to the commissioning of a 250,000-ton plant and the restart of several major plants, while the demand side for polyester is slightly down [3] - The overall industry inventory remains stable, but there is a potential for accumulation in the future, with strong cost support from crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is expected to cool down after the previous macro - positive factors are digested. The price of PX has adjusted due to the decline in raw material prices. Although the supply of Asian PX is tightening, the demand is also higher than expected, and it will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. PTA prices are expected to be mainly driven by costs, with short - term prices running strongly. The polyester bottle - chip market is currently in a state of relatively high supply, and downstream demand is mainly focused on consuming previous inventories. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, and xylene all decreased. The settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.62/barrel, down 2.42%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.53/barrel, down 2.36%; the spot price of naphtha was $572/ton, down 3.05%; and the spot price of xylene was $709/ton, down 3.08% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,103 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; the settlement price was 6,806 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,817 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,116 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the settlement price was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1] - **Downstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of most downstream products increased slightly. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [2] Operating Conditions - On May 15, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged. The operating rate of PX was 73.32%, the PTA factory load rate was 74.41%, the polyester factory load rate was 91.34%, and the bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13%. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 3.83 percentage points to 68.10% [1] Production and Sales Rates - On May 15, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased. The production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36%, down 16 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 44%, down 17 percentage points; and the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 41%, down 52 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.11%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.35 million lots; the 2509 contract closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with an intraday trading volume of 30,500 lots; the PR 2507 contract closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with an intraday trading volume of 50,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

[季table 度策略报告 _reportdate ] 2025 年 04 月 03 日 检修季能否带来转机 观点摘要： 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ➢ 2025 年一季度行情回顾：2025 年 PX 期货迎来新年开年红后就 一路下行，主因是装置检修的炒作和成本端的坍塌。PTA 价格 先涨后跌，同比跌幅较大的主因是成本下降。乙二醇港口库存 拐点未能到来，价格弱势跌破 4400。 ➢ 后市展望：PX 方面，调油季不会掀起波澜，预计价格运行区间 为 6700-7200 元/吨。当下的供需格局较 1-2 月有边际改善，但改 善的程度原不足以拉动价格。4-6 月亚洲存在 1100 万吨以上 PX 装置存在停车安排，其中国内浙石化、中海油、福海创及福佳 均有检修计划，同时恒力及盛虹存在减产预期，检修季会给价 格带来底部支撑，但持续的向上驱动仍需要成本端原油的拉 涨。相较于一季度，成本的影响力度或许会些微降低，PX 自身 需求改善带来的提振属于锦上添花并非雪中送炭，价格能否持 续反弹还需关注原油的动态。PTA 方面，关注原油的变动，预 计价格运行区间为 4700-5100 元/吨。按目前已官宣 ...