Group 1: Market Overview - The non-bank index rose by 0.6% last week, while the brokerage and insurance indices increased by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a synchronized upward trend [2] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 20,578 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1% week-on-week; the margin financing balance reached 2.01 trillion yuan, up 1.5% from the previous week [2] - The stock pledge market value was 2.84 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [2] Group 2: Brokerage Insights - In July, new A-share accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 70.5% year-on-year, with a total of 1,963,600 new accounts, indicating a strong growth momentum [3] - The margin financing balance surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.8% increase since the beginning of the year, suggesting a positive outlook for market trading activity [3] - The upcoming interim reports from listed brokerages are expected to show significant performance improvements due to the recovery of the capital market, presenting potential investment opportunities [3] Group 3: Insurance Sector Developments - The approval of Taiping Asset to establish a private equity fund marks the sixth company in the long-term investment pilot program, indicating steady progress in insurance capital market investments [4] - A joint initiative by seven departments aims to promote high-quality development of commercial health insurance, focusing on product system construction and service capability enhancement [4] - These measures are expected to activate growth potential in commercial health insurance, with the possibility of Shanghai's successful experiences being replicated nationwide [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the new "National Nine Articles" provides clear guidance for cultivating first-class investment banks, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and ROE enhancement [5] - In the insurance sector, the new "National Ten Articles" emphasizes high-quality development under strong regulation, recommending attention to large comprehensive insurance companies with competitive advantages [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the role of brokerages in stabilizing and activating the capital market through various measures [1][2] - Brokerages should actively cooperate with the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to stabilize the market and provide policy interpretations to investors [1] - Brokerages are encouraged to leverage their professional advantages to support the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing underwriting and advisory services [1] Group 2 - Brokerages should focus on high-quality development of public funds by reducing investor costs and improving internal evaluation mechanisms [1] - The investment banking departments of brokerages can assist companies related to new productive forces in entering the A-share market for financing [1] - Brokerages must strengthen compliance and risk control, ensuring that all business operations are conducted in a compliant and stable manner [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive financial policy package launched by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize and invigorate the capital market [1][2][3] - The financial policy package includes measures such as interest rate cuts, structural tools for supporting agriculture, technology innovation, and consumer services, which aim to lower financing costs and improve liquidity in specific sectors [1][2] - The regulatory bodies are focusing on supporting foreign trade enterprises through targeted financing and insurance services, which is crucial for stabilizing employment in labor-intensive private enterprises [2][3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is committed to enhancing the role of the Central Huijin Investment Company as a stabilizing fund and is promoting the high-quality development of public funds to increase long-term capital market participation [3][4] - Securities firms are encouraged to actively cooperate with regulatory bodies to stabilize the market, educate investors, and improve service levels in underwriting and advisory roles [4][5] - The article highlights the need for securities firms to strengthen compliance and risk management while collaborating with other financial institutions to foster a healthy market environment [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese trust industry is experiencing a new phase of rapid development, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, an increase of 5.64 trillion yuan or 23.58% from the end of 2023, marking a historical high [1] Historical Development - The trust industry has gone through multiple stages, with assets growing from 3.04 trillion yuan in 2010 to 26.25 trillion yuan in 2017, driven by the real estate sector. However, the rapid expansion led to issues such as insufficient active management capabilities. Following regulatory guidance, assets decreased to 20.49 trillion yuan between 2018 and 2020, but have since shown recovery, reaching 21.14 trillion yuan at the end of 2022 and 23.92 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 [3] Structural Changes in Fund Allocation - The allocation of funds in trusts has shifted significantly, with the securities market becoming the largest investment area. By the end of 2024, the scale of fund trusts reached 22.25 trillion yuan, up 28.02% from 2023, with 10.27 trillion yuan directed towards the securities market, a 55.61% increase from 6.60 trillion yuan in 2023. This represents 46.17% of total fund trusts, aligning with policies aimed at invigorating the capital market [4] Industry Transformation and Business Model Upgrade - The year 2024 marks the first complete year of implementing the new classification regulations for trust companies. The industry has undergone profound changes, with 28.81% of the 22.25 trillion yuan in fund trusts directly supporting the real economy, and 46.17% indirectly through the securities market. The industry is transitioning from traditional non-standard financing to a more diversified and professional asset service model, with significant growth in wealth management trusts, which exceed 1 trillion yuan [5] Trust Property Registration Trials - Ongoing trials for trust property registration are creating new opportunities for industry development. In December 2024 and March 2025, Beijing initiated trials for real estate and equity trust property registration, respectively. By now, trust registration companies have issued several registration certificates for real estate and equity trusts [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the brokerage industry, with a notable increase in both revenue and profit for listed brokerages in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven primarily by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [2][12][17] - The competitive landscape remains concentrated, with leading firms continuing to strengthen their market positions, suggesting a trend of "the strong getting stronger" [2][65] Revenue and Profit Overview - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the adjusted operating revenue for listed brokerages increased by 3.1% and 27.9% year-on-year, respectively, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 15.1% and 79.0% [2][12] - The average annualized ROE for listed brokerages reached 8.2% in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [17] Business Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates for proprietary trading, brokerage, credit, investment banking, asset management, and other businesses were +46.0%, +43.4%, +11.4%, -1.5%, -5.7%, and -20.2%, respectively [2][25] - Proprietary trading and brokerage businesses were the main drivers of revenue growth, contributing significantly to the overall performance of brokerages [2][25] Market Conditions and Policy Impact - The report highlights a favorable policy environment that is expected to support the brokerage sector, with ongoing efforts to stabilize and invigorate the capital market [3][77] - The active capital market signals are anticipated to improve the fundamentals of brokerages with high proportions of brokerage and margin financing business [3][77] Competitive Landscape - The top five brokerages accounted for 54.4% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025, indicating a continued increase in industry concentration [67] - The market share of leading firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities remains strong, with CITIC Securities holding a market share of 14.4% in Q1 2025 [66][67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with a high proportion of brokerage and margin financing business, as well as those with strong proprietary trading strategies and risk management practices [2][3][77] - Specific firms recommended for attention include China Galaxy and Guotai Junan for their robust business models and market positioning [2][3]

Domestic News - The Chinese government is set to hold high-level economic talks with the U.S. at the request of the U.S. side, with a firm stance against the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and introduced ten measures to stabilize the market and expectations [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a comprehensive action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including 25 specific measures to optimize fund management and align interests with investors [2] Financial Policies - Starting from May 8, 2025, the personal housing provident fund loan rates will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rates set at 2.1% for first-time homebuyers on loans of five years or less [2] - The People's Bank of China will lower the re-lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year loans respectively [2] - The central bank has adjusted the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, 2025 [3] Market Developments - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $328.17 billion by the end of April, an increase of $41 billion, reflecting a 1.27% rise [4] - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, aiming for a complete merger [4] International News - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision is expected to be announced soon, with predictions of potential rate cuts in the coming months [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve may cut rates three times, totaling 75 basis points, to address inflation and employment risks [5] - The Bank of Korea's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus for potential rate cuts due to economic slowdown [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, particularly in response to recent economic challenges [2][3][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance economic stability, especially in light of weaker domestic economic data and a declining US dollar index [3][6] Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC's measures include quantity-based policies such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and adjusting policy interest rates, which aim to increase long-term liquidity supply [3][8] - Specific actions include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and a similar reduction in housing provident fund loan rates, with the five-year rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to 2.85% [3][8] - The PBOC plans to enhance the monetary policy framework and improve the transmission mechanism to ensure effective resource allocation [3][6] Financial Sector Support - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is introducing policies to support the real estate market, including new financing systems tailored to the evolving real estate development model [4][8] - The report outlines initiatives to expand the scope of long-term insurance fund investments and reduce investment risk factors for insurance companies, thereby stabilizing the capital market [4][8] - The CBIRC is also focused on facilitating financing for small and private enterprises, as well as enhancing support for foreign trade [4][8] Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to maintaining a stable and active capital market, with plans to support the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in its role as a stabilizing fund [5][8] - The CSRC aims to promote the development of technology innovation bonds and enhance the quality of public funds, fostering a positive cycle of returns, capital inflow, and market stability [5][8] - Upcoming reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market are expected to improve market inclusivity and adaptability [5][8] Economic Outlook - The report notes a significant decline in the new export orders index, which fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating a challenging external environment [6] - The need for proactive policy measures is underscored, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations amid complex global conditions [6][8]

文/李悦 曹萌 刘思嘉 5月7日上午9时 ， 在沪深两市开盘前半小时， 中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云 泽、中国证监会主席吴清罕见 集体 亮相国务院新闻办发布会 ， 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况 ， 一次性 抛出 货币政策 十项措施 、 金融监管 八项增量政策 ， 以及 活跃资本 市场 多项 举措 。 在业内人士看来，这场新闻发布会 在举办 时点 、会议内容 等方面 明显超出市场预期。 中泰证券指出， 首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告。其次是均为一把手出席，市场之前对出席 的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股 市。 除了落实4月25日政治局会议外，可能也和4月官方制造业 PMI弱于季节性有关。 对比 去年 9 月 24 日的 新闻发布会 来 看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 反应 相对平稳 ， 三大指数 高开后震荡回落，深证成指、创业板指一度翻绿，临近收盘有所拉升。截至收盘，沪指涨0.80%， 深证成指涨0.22%，创业板指涨0.51%。 中泰证券认为， 一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取得了积极成效，这和 ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a "sustained, stable, and active capital market," indicating a strong commitment from the government towards capital market development [2][3][4] - Securities firms are actively supporting the stock market through share buyback and shareholder increase plans, reflecting confidence in the long-term investment value of A-shares [6][7] - The meeting's focus on "sustained stability and active capital markets" suggests that new policies aimed at enhancing market activity are expected to be implemented soon, which will further promote high-quality development in the capital market [8][9] Group 2 - Insurance companies are planning to increase their equity asset allocation, focusing on core A-share assets and sectors such as banking, transportation, public utilities, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [12][14] - The first quarter saw insurance funds increasing their holdings in sectors like pharmaceuticals, steel, and home appliances, indicating a strategic shift towards sectors with growth potential [13] - Insurance funds are expected to inject significant capital into the market, with projections of annual inflows of approximately 600 billion to 800 billion yuan over the next three years, driven by a demand for high-dividend stocks [15] Group 3 - Public funds are optimistic about the capital market, planning to increase their A-share allocations and focus on structural opportunities in technology and consumption sectors [16][18] - The meeting's emphasis on stability and activity in the capital market is seen as a positive signal for future policy measures, which are expected to support economic growth and enhance market liquidity [17][19] - Fund managers are identifying six key investment opportunities, including technology innovation, consumption upgrades, infrastructure, real estate transformation, green economy, and capital market reforms [19]