大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2391（-23/-0.95%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2130 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2240 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2260 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2640 元/吨，宁波报价 2630 元/吨，广州报价 2440 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 6 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，增加 2.51 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡，西 北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 700 元/吨附 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面冲高回落，最终报收 2504（-34/-1.34%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2055 元/吨，山西地区报价 2190 元/吨，河南地区报价 2260 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2330 元/吨，鲁北报价 2300 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2720 元/吨，宁波报价 2740 元/吨，广州报价 2580 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期国际甲醇产量为 803933 吨，较上周减少 23 万吨，装置产能利用率为 55.11%， 较上周大幅下降 15.80%。伊朗装置已全部停车；南北美洲均开工稳定为主，个别产线因 季节性限气停车；东南亚及周边开工负荷不高；非洲某装置因天然气供应而临时停车。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （6.9 大越期货投资咨询部 -6.13 金泽彬 ） 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：短期国内甲醇市场或以区间震荡为主。港口市场方面，持续累库，不过港口船龄限制政策实 施，后续局部进口到货或不及预期，叠加宏观面及原油表现偏强，短期港口期现货尚存一定支撑，然港口价 格上涨后，现货商谈气氛平平，预计短期港口市场维持震荡行情概率大，需关注后续进口船货到港情况。内 地市场方面，近期产区工厂出货量较大，上游企业库存可控，同时底部区间下部分贸易商持货意愿增强，对 行情有一定利好推动。但内地煤制企业利润可观，开工仍处高位，叠加下游处于传统淡季，供需基本面缺乏 明显利好驱动下，部分业者心态谨慎。多空交织预计下周内地甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The spot price of the port methanol market continued to be strong, while the inland methanol market rose slightly. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures and port prices increased. In the near future, the output of the restored methanol production capacity in China is more than that of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises and ports increased this week. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased. Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The port methanol market price was strong (Jiangsu: 2300 - 2420 yuan/ton, Guangdong: 2280 - 2320 yuan/ton), and the inland market rose slightly (Ordos: 1883 - 1897 yuan/ton, Dongying receiving price: 2150 - 2160 yuan/ton). The futures and port prices increased due to macro - sentiment [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The output of restored production capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of enterprises and ports increased. The olefin industry's device operation is stable, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry has increased [7] - **Strategy**: Due to the impact of the Middle East situation, the futures price of the MA2509 contract has risen rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term to prevent the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 5.52% [10] - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 13, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 34 [15] - **Position Analysis**: Not provided in the summary part - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of June 13, there were 9309 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 4709 compared to last week [21] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of June 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2480 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1950 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 97.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [25] - **Foreign Price**: As of June 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31] - **Basis**: As of June 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of June 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of June 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.54 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38] - **Industry**: As of June 12, China's methanol output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons compared to last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. As of June 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.33%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 15.22%. In April 2025, China's methanol import volume was 787,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.53%; from January to April 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 2.8648 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.49%. As of June 12, the methanol import profit was 16.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.35 yuan/ton compared to last week [41][45][49] - **Downstream**: As of June 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76%. As of June 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][55] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2277（+11/+0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1870 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1880 元/吨，山西地区报价 2020 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2040 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2180 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2330 元/吨，宁波报价 2380 元/吨，广州报价 2290 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20250531-20250606）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 975353 吨，较上周增加 29300 吨，装置产能利用率为 66.86%，较上周提升 2.01%。周期内，伊朗 ZPC 重启一条产线， Kimiya 正常运行中，南美、东南亚装置略有波动。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：低位反弹 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 ➢ 国内现货：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异。节后国内甲醇生产企业出货不佳，加之假期期间汽运运力不足，部分甲醇生产企业库 存累库，下调价格积极出货为主，所以内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周甲醇港口库存如期累库，周期内外轮卸货基本符合预期，显性计入26.35万吨。江苏地区虽有重点下游停车及降负， 但国产船货供应预期减量，沿江主流库区在下游船发支撑下提货稳健；浙江地区刚需稳定，库存无波动。本周华南港口库存窄幅累 库，主要体现在广东地区，周期内进口及内贸船只均补充 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.06」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异，部分甲醇生产企业库存累库，下调价格积极出货为 主，内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。西北产区运力不足，企业发货节奏放缓，本周国内甲醇企业库存继续增加。外轮卸货基本符 合预期，甲醇港口库存如期累库，华东地区部分重点下游停车及降负但沿江主流库区在下游船发 支撑下提货稳健；华南地区进口及内贸船只均补充供应，而主流库区提货受限使得库存呈现累库。 需求方面，宁夏宝丰二期装置重启，山东恒通装置负荷提升，本周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率有 所提升。 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2240-2300区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇 ...