交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计本周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近期检修装置不 多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少，以及9月初的大型活动对华 北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方 面，伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌，后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价 格继续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2245元/吨，01合约基差- ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-01甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计本周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近期检修装置不 多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少，以及9月初的大型活动对华 北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方面， 伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌，后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价格继 续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下；中性 2、基差：江 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2330 - 2410 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of inland methanol enterprises increased this week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The increase in port inventory depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels [8] - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in China is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2330 - 2410 range in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market weakened, and the inland market declined. The price ranges in different regions are provided [8] - Market outlook: Production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price movement: The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.83% [13] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 29, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 11 [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of August 29, there were 9746 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 920 from last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 29, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2222.5 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; in Northwest Inner Mongolia, it was 2050.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 28, methanol CFR China Main Port was 258 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China Main Port was 64 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 29, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 138.5 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, NYMEX natural gas closed at 299 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of August 28, China's methanol production was 1918285 tons, an increase of 24290 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase [44] - Inventory: As of August 27, the total port inventory was 129.93 million tons, an increase of 22.33 million tons. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a 7.27% increase [49] - Import: In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 110.27 million tons, a 9.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 648.00 million tons, a 14.66% year - on - year decrease. As of August 28, the import profit was - 0.72 yuan/ton, down 17.2 yuan/ton from last week [52] - Downstream: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins was 86.41%, a 0.71% increase. As of August 29, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 909 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2460 in the short - term [8]. - Recently, the output from restored methanol production capacity in China exceeds the loss from maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall output. This week, some enterprises' inventory levels climbed slightly due to fewer previous orders and a slow long - term order pickup pace. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week despite the opened reverse flow space in East China ports [9]. - This week, olefin plants operated stably, with the second - phase plant of Shaanxi Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarted and increasing its load. Next week, the olefin plant of Sinopec Zhongyuan is expected to restart, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2460 in the short - term [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, domestic port methanol inventory continued to accumulate, and prices remained weak. The reverse flow space from East China ports to Anhui market has opened, but it has limited impact on port pick - up. The inland methanol market declined weakly, with the price in Ordos North Line in the range of 2070 - 2095 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying in the range of 2295 - 2325 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol output increased slightly. Port inventory is expected to keep rising. Olefin plant operating rates are expected to increase [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.29% [14]. - As of August 22, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 111 [18]. - As of August 22, there were 10,666 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 302 from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of August 22, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2297.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2072.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - As of August 21, the CFR price of methanol at China's main ports was 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and China's main ports was 58 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of August 22, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 107.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.5 yuan/ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.04 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [44]. - **Industry** - As of August 21, China's methanol output was 1,897,395 tons, an increase of 34,120 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.83% [47]. - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.15%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 207,400 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% [52]. - In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%. From January to July 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of August 21, the methanol import profit was 16.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.37 yuan/ton from last week [55]. - **Downstream** - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 1.45% [58]. - As of August 22, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 977 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market and predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. Specifically, MA2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. On the mainland, due to the pessimistic sentiment of industry players caused by the macro - environment and the lack of further positive factors in demand, the willingness of long - term contract traders to sell has increased significantly. However, the relatively tight inventory of methanol enterprises in the mainland, especially in production areas, provides some support for prices. In the port area, the significant fluctuations in coking coal and coke have a negative feedback on the methanol futures and spot markets, and the positive factors supporting the market have reversed. Coupled with the expected continuous inventory build - up in ports and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for positive guidance from policy and news. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show a neutral situation on the mainland and in ports. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with an increase in port inventories. The disk shows a bearish signal as the 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average. The main position shows a bullish signal as the main position is net long but the long positions are decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 fluctuating between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), a decrease in methanol production start - up in Iran, low port inventories, the production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen since May 16, the planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong in late August, and the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest. [6] - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE start - up, a certain profit margin for coal - to - methanol production with active sales, and the accumulation of inventory in some factories in production areas due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are price data for various types of methanol in the spot and futures markets, including the prices of ring - Bohai Sea thermal coal, CFR China main port, import costs, etc., as well as price changes and spreads. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 3.88% this week, while the futures price increased by 0.67%. [8][9][11] - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 891,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 87,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 72,900 tons to 571,200 tons. [4] - **Profit Data**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production decreased by 77 yuan/ton this week, while the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol production increased by 323 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained unchanged. [19] - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week. The production profit of acetic acid increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde remained at a loss, and the production profit of dimethyl ether remained stable. [29][34][37] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Energy Chemical, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses. [57] - **Overseas Methanol Device Maintenance**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different states, such as the QAFAC in Qatar having a maintenance period from the end of February to March 16, and the G3 in the United States having an unplanned shutdown until early May. [58] - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy having a 45 - day maintenance starting from March 15, and China Coal Lin having a maintenance plan in the second quarter. [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of methanol enterprises in the inland area remains low, while the port inventory continues to accumulate. Next week, the port inventory is expected to continue increasing, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2390 and 2460 in the short term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weak this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2330 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2090 - 2125 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2325 - 2360 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production in China increased slightly. The inland supply was tight, and enterprise inventory remained low. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of relevant plants [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.55% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of August 15, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 96 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the content - Warehouse receipt: As of August 14, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11168, an increase of 2480 from last week [22] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 15, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 14, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.5 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal price: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41] - Natural gas price: As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of August 14, China's methanol production was 1863275 tons, an increase of 18050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% [44] - Inventory: As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 102.18 million tons, an increase of 9.63 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 29.56 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 million tons from the previous period [49] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 122.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 537.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 14, the methanol import profit was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54 yuan/ton from last week [52] Downstream - Operating rate: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [55] - Profit: As of August 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton from last week [58] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations, and attention should be paid to whether the arbitrage between the inland and ports is opened. The inland supply increases due to the concentrated resumption of previously shut - down methanol plants, but the tight - balance supply - demand pattern continues. It is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The supply - demand contradiction in ports is obvious, with concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants in ports. The futures market has some support but limited upward momentum, and the East China methanol market is expected to fluctuate with both rises and falls next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases, but the tight - balance pattern persists. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, and the futures market has support but limited upside [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices in different regions had different changes. Jiangsu decreased by 0.21%, Hebei increased by 1.79%, Inner Mongolia increased by 1.21%, and Fujian decreased by 1.03%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged [7]. Methanol Basis - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the futures price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis increased by 5 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 334 yuan/ton from August 1st to August 8th [12]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared with last week, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [14]. Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, CFR China decreased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 1 [17]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the import cost decreased by 0.51%, and the import spread increased by 7 [20]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices of formaldehyde and acetic acid remained unchanged, and dimethyl ether increased by 0.79% [24]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The formaldehyde production profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% this week compared with last week [28]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% this week compared with last week [30]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The acetic acid production profit increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% this week compared with last week [35]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% this week compared with last week [39]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased by 8.60 to 51.08, and in the South China port, it increased by 6.70 to 29.25 [40]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased by 1.66% to 8688, and the valid forecasts remained at 1100 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic enterprises are in maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary [44]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses, including restarting, normal operation, and planned maintenance [45]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are running stably, some are in maintenance, and some have load - related issues [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand from factors like maintenance of coal - to - olefins plants in Zhejiang and the off - season. It is expected to adjust weakly. The inland market has a healthy supply - demand situation with low enterprise inventories and restarting olefin plants, but is dragged down by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating between 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are polarized. The port market may accumulate inventory this week, and demand is weak. The inland market has healthy supply - demand but is affected by the port. The price is expected to oscillate, with MA2509 in the range of 2360 - 2420 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis is 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, an increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. The methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has been in production since May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has dropped significantly. Coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of动力煤Q5500 (intermediate price) is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 272 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2400 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2388 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 6 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 12 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operation rate data**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rate in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [8]. - **Inventory data**: The inventory in East China ports is 51.08 tons, an increase of 8.60 tons from last week. The inventory in South China ports is 29.25 tons, an increase of 6.70 tons from last week [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in the northwest, north, east, and southwest regions are in maintenance, shutdown, or production - reduction states, including Shaanxi Heima, Ningxia Changyi, etc. [55]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at low rates, and some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally, while some are in maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the northwest, east, and other regions are in maintenance or operating normally, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which is in synchronous maintenance of methanol and olefins, and some plants like Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, with regional trends expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to accumulate inventory this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand may lead to a downward adjustment. The inland market has low inventory and healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but may be affected by the port's weak market and maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The port market may accumulate inventory, and demand is weak; the inland market has no supply pressure in the short term, and the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, but it is affected by the port market. The overall assessment is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 13, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 65.03 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period; the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production; CTO enterprises in the northwest still have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, and the MTBE start - up rate has decreased significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while the price in Inner Mongolia has increased by 1.70% week - on - week. The futures closing price has increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis Spread Structure**: The basis spread of various regions and the import basis spread have changed. For example, the basis spread between Jiangsu and Shandong has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, and the import basis spread has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rate in different regions has also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has also increased [8]. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes are different. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased by 21 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 334 yuan/ton week - on - week [18]. - **Downstream Product Price and Profit**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have little change. The production profits and loads of downstream products have also changed slightly [29][33][36][40]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO device production profit has increased by 109 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load, involving various regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low start - up rate [56]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: The operation status of domestic olefin devices is also different. Some devices are operating stably, some are shut down for maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the methanol market are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the later stage. In the port market, with concentrated imports expected next week, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The shutdown and maintenance of coal - to - olefin plants in Zhejiang and the off - season of the industry will drag down overall demand, so the port market is predicted to be weak. Inland, although methanol production is on the rise, low enterprise inventories mean no short - term supply pressure. The restart of olefin plants and the external procurement demand of northwest CTO enterprises support the inland methanol price. However, affected by the weak port market, the inland methanol price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The fundamentals of the methanol market are polarized, with different trends in the port and inland markets. The port market may face inventory accumulation and weak demand, while the inland market has relatively healthy supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by the port's weakness [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices in different regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 4.14%, from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 0.45%, from 2225 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.73%, from 2050 yuan/ton to 2065 yuan/ton; and the price in Fujian decreased by 3.97%, from 2520 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Methanol Spot, Futures, and Basis - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14% (from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton), the futures price decreased by 5.00% (from 2519 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton), and the basis increased by 23 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 41 yuan/ton from July 25th to August 1st; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 334 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, from 78.71% to 74.90%. The load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55%, from 85.09% to 81.54% [15]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the CFR China price decreased by 3.21% (from 280 dollars/ton to 271 dollars/ton), the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened by 9 dollars/ton [18]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14%, the import cost decreased by 2.98%, and the import spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton [21]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [28]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% [29]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% [31]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased by 57 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [36]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased (from - 1262 yuan/ton to - 932 yuan/ton), and the MTO/MTP device load in the east China slightly increased [40]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the east China port, the inventory increased from 41.67 to 42.48; in the south China port, the inventory increased from 17.04 to 22.55 [41]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From July 25th to August 1st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 15.67% (from 10134 to 8546), and the effective forecasts remained at 0 [45]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times, raw materials, and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke oven gas) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly production loss of 1950 tons [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restored one unit, but it needs to be verified; Marjan in Iran is in the process of restarting and recovering in mid - March [49]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Many domestic olefin plants have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days; Ningbo Fude is operating smoothly [50].