Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market is expected to have limited upside and downside due to factors such as low upstream factory inventory, high coal prices, high overall mainland operating rates, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both ups and downs this week, affected by sanctions on Iran, with attention on subsequent impacts of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2240 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The mainland has cost - side support from low upstream factory inventory and high coal prices, but also faces supply pressure from high operating rates and negative feedback from olefin plants. The port is affected by sanctions on Iran, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The overall methanol price is expected to be volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol operating rates are down, some acetic acid plants are in production or have planned production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 125.89 million tons, a decrease of 1.41 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 6.34 million tons to 87.70 million tons [5]. - **Market Price and Spread**: Various market prices and spreads are provided, including those of spot and futures markets, and different regional price differences. For example, the futures closing price was 2268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; the basis was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. Operating rates in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Production Profits**: Different production processes have different profit situations. For example, coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia had a profit of 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value; natural - gas - to - methanol in the southwest had a profit of - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [19]. - **Downstream Product Data**: Traditional downstream product prices such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained stable. Production profits and operating rates of downstream products also showed different changes. For example, the profit of formaldehyde production was - 158 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous value; the operating rate was 25.42%, an increase of 0.90% from the previous value [29][34]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, and some plants in other countries are operating normally or are in maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant were shut down for maintenance on March 15, 2025, with an expected maintenance period of 45 days [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. The closing price of the 01 contract on October 24 was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton. With multiple methanol plants under maintenance and reduced supply in some areas, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry declined, and the traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the price rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. On October 24, the closing price of the 01 contract was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton [3][4]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 194.35 million tons. The expected arrival volume at ports was 6.7 million tons. Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas [3][10]. Cost - The domestic thermal coal market price continued to rise, increasing by 26 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton, leading to a continuous increase in the cost of coal-based methanol [3][13]. Demand - The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points from last week. Some olefin plants in coastal areas reduced their production loads, and the operating rate declined slightly. The demand for externally purchased methanol is expected to weaken next week when a methanol project supporting an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia resumes operation. Additionally, a 200,000 - ton ethylene project in Henan is about to shut down, indicating weak demand from the main downstream industries. The traditional downstream demand for methanol remained weak, with low operating loads at traditional downstream factories and cautious replenishment based on rigid demand [3][17]. Inventory - The inventory of sampled methanol enterprises was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons from last week. The port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 2.08 million tons from last week. The inventory of enterprises and ports showed a divergence, with a decline in the inland operating rate and a recovery in arrival volume, narrowing the price difference between the inland and ports [3][23]. Main Operating Logic - Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas. The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry declined slightly, and the main demand in some areas weakened. The traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices drove up the methanol price, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Key Points of Attention - Changes in the macro - economic situation, methanol plant maintenance, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水 平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利 润大幅挤压，当前成本压力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一 轮合约周期即将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件 影响，伊朗进口船货卸货被无限期推延，在炒作支撑下，港口市场下行动力减弱，但基本面偏弱事实下，预计本周港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is still weak in reality, with the futures market oscillating downward. The methanol sector has limited ability to follow the upward trend of the energy and chemical sector due to its weak fundamentals. The port inventory continues to rise, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened, indicating significant real - world pressure. Although there are potential positive factors, the market is expected to have limited downward momentum, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The energy and chemical sector rebounded strongly, but methanol, affected by its weak fundamentals, had limited ability to follow the upward trend. The port inventory continued to rise, the basis and monthly spread weakened, and the market was under significant real - world pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic methanol operating rate was 85.65%, a 2% week - on - week decrease, but it is expected to rise in the future. Coal prices continued to strengthen, increasing methanol production costs. The port arrival volume was 35.2 tons, a 6.82 - ton week - on - week increase, and it is expected to continue rising. The port olefin operating rate was 87.25%, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease, with some plants reducing their loads. The traditional demand for acetic acid and MTBE increased, while others declined, resulting in an overall weakening of demand [11] - **Valuation**: As the impact of imports weakened, the basis and monthly spread declined again and were at low levels year - on - year. Coal prices continued to strengthen, causing the coal - to - methanol profit to decline rapidly from its high level. The downstream profit improved slightly, but the absolute level remained low, and the high valuation of methanol was being corrected downward [11] - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton week - on - week increase, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down due to lower - than - expected unloading. The enterprise inventory was 36.04 tons, a 0.05 - ton week - on - week increase and at a low level year - on - year [11] - **Market Logic**: The future import supply pressure remains high. With high port inventories, the spot market is weak, and the basis and monthly spread have weakened again. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot markets in different regions showed various changes. For example, the 09 - contract price increased by 33 yuan/ton, while the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The downstream product prices and profits also changed, such as the PP - 3*MA profit increasing by 185 yuan/ton [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed a pattern of increasing open interest and falling prices [22] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Coal prices continued to strengthen, which had an impact on methanol production costs [32] - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol profit declined from its high level [41] - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory was at a historically high level [44] - **Regional Inventory**: The factory inventory was at a low level year - on - year [46] 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation, with a total of 745 tons of new capacity from multiple enterprises in the northwest region planned to be put into operation at different times in 2025 [55] - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate decreased from its high level, and the overseas methanol operating rate also showed certain trends [57] - **Import Volume**: The import volume and its sources (such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia) showed different trends, and the import volume is expected to continue to rise [62] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume in different regions (such as East China and South China) showed certain changes [71] - **Price Spreads**: International and regional price spreads, as well as domestic freight rates, showed different trends [73][76][85] 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory showed certain trends [90] - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate, MTO operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and related production profits and price spreads showed different trends [92] - **PP Production Profits**: The production profits of different PP production processes (such as oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based) showed different trends [101] - **MTO - Related Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different products (such as PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, etc.) showed different trends [104] - **Downstream Operating Rates and Profits**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether showed different trends [114][116] - **Downstream Inventory**: The downstream inventory showed certain trends [119] - **Related Product Ratios**: The ratios between methanol and other related products (such as urea, INE crude oil, etc.) showed different trends [122] 3.6 Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: The option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility showed certain trends [126] 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [132][134]

Report Summary Core Viewpoint - This week, the port methanol market was weak, and the inland market declined. The overall domestic methanol production decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than output from restored capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased slightly. In October, the expected sufficient imports may further raise the port inventory. The overall olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week, and it may continue to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and falling downstream prices. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market was weak. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2230 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranged from 2010 - 2053 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2267 - 2277 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased. The overall supply pressure was not significant, and the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, and there is still a possibility of further increase in October. The olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week and may continue to decline in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures was flat this week, with a 0% change [10]. - As of October 24, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [14]. - As of October 24, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 14092, an increase of 2810 compared to last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of October 23, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 237.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. - As of October 23, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 261 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 65 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton compared to last week [32]. - As of October 23, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. - As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.29 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [39]. - **Industry** - As of October 23, China's methanol production was 1943465 tons, a decrease of 39690 tons compared to last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% compared to last week [42]. - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.13% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons compared to the previous period, a 5.79% decrease. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons compared to the previous data [48]. - In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 142.69 tons, a decrease of 18.92% compared to the previous month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 966.67 tons, a decrease of 3.94% compared to the same period last year. As of October 23, the methanol import profit was - 6.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.1 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. - **Downstream** - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 91.44%, a decrease of 1.97% compared to last week [54]. - As of October 24, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 954 yuan/ton, an increase of 111 yuan/ton compared to last week [57]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 23, the domestic methanol-to-olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.44%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the northwest and east decreased, and the overall olefin industry's start-up declined this week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price drops, the start-up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,260 - 2,330 in the short term [2]. - With the support of downstream rigid demand, the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises has decreased this week. At the ports, due to weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels has continued to fall short of expectations, and the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses has significantly decreased. The methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week. The expected methanol imports in October are still sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,292 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was -37 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,066,380 lots, a month-on-month decrease of 31,400 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -137,185 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,092, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,010 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 220 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -62 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 260 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -65 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.44 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month-on-month decrease of 0.05 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.92 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 1.79 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 500 tons; the methanol enterprise start-up rate was 87.42%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start-up rate was 40.88%, a month-on-month increase of 6.77 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start-up rate was 5.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid start-up rate was 72.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the MTBE start-up rate was 63.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The olefin start-up rate was 92.39%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the methanol-to-olefins on - paper profit was -985 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.58%, a month-on-month increase of 0.88 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 360,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 50 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.13%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 215,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.79% [2]. - As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5122 million tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 9,200 tons. The methanol port inventory slightly increased this week [2]. - Recently, the production capacity loss caused by maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has decreased. The overall pressure on the supply side is not large [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the unloading of imported ships, the market's concerns about supply intensified, but the situation later eased. The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the monthly spread continuing to rise and the basis strengthening rapidly. The current spot market still has a high - inventory pattern, and the price difference between ports and inland areas has slightly strengthened [11]. - The domestic operating rate has declined from a high level, coal prices have strengthened leading to higher costs, and short - term imports have been affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate has remained flat, while the overall domestic olefin operating rate is at a high level. Traditional demand has weakened overall, with the operating rates of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde rising and the rest falling [11]. - The basis has quickly recovered from a low level to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to rise due to near - term import impacts. Coal - to - methanol profits are still relatively high, but downstream profits are generally at a medium - to - low level, and methanol valuation is moderately high [11]. - Port inventories have decreased due to lower import arrivals, while enterprise inventories have increased slightly but are at a low level compared to the same period last year. The market logic is that short - term import disruptions have made port prices stronger than inland prices, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell [11]. - Overall, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, the domestic inventory is high, and the pattern of weak reality remains unchanged. Short - term port pressure has been relieved due to the delayed unloading of imported goods. The potential upward driver for future prices lies in the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. Currently, the price has basically reflected the weak - reality pattern. In the future, attention should be focused on supply - side disruptions, and opportunities for long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads should be considered on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling due to import impacts. The domestic operating rate was 87.42%, declining from a high level. Coal prices strengthened, and short - term imports were affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate was 88.08%, remaining flat. Traditional demand weakened overall. The basis recovered to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread rose. Coal - to - methanol profits were still high, but downstream profits were at a medium - to - low level. Port inventories decreased by 5.18 tons to 149.14 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by 2.05 tons to 35.99 tons [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term import disruptions made port prices stronger, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell. Import unloading was delayed, leading to lower arrivals and a reduction in port inventories. Domestic supply decreased slightly, and coal prices continued to rebound, causing a decline in coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remained weak [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads on dips [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: Near - term import disruptions have strengthened the 1 - 5 spread, and the basis has recovered to near 0 [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There has been an increase in open interest and a decline in price [23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are good [41]. - **Port Inventory**: Port inventories are at a historical high [42]. - **Regional Inventory**: Factory inventories are at a low level compared to the same period last year [44]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: There are new methanol production capacities in the northwest region, with different raw materials and expected commissioning times [53]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Supply has returned to a high level [55]. - **Import Volume**: Import volumes and arrivals have been affected, with different import situations from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [62][71]. - **International Price Difference**: There are fluctuations in import profits and price differences between China and other regions [74]. - **Domestic Freight**: There are data on domestic methanol freight [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: There are consumption and inventory data for methanol [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: There are data on olefin operating rates, profits of related enterprises, and relevant price differences [88][92][99]. - **PP Production Profits by Different Processes**: There are data on production profits of PP by oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based processes [96]. - **MTO - Related Price Differences**: There are data on price differences such as PP - 3MA and LL - 3MA [99]. - **Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether Operating Rates and Profits**: There are data on the operating rates and profits of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether [111]. - **Downstream Inventory**: There are data on downstream operating rates, profits, and inventories [114]. - **Related Product Ratios**: There are data on ratios between methanol and other products such as urea, INE crude oil, and动力煤 [117]. 3.6 Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: There are data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility [122][124]. 3.7 Industry Structure Chart - There are charts showing the methanol industry chain and research framework analysis [127][129].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly. Although Inner Mongolia olefins continue to purchase externally, after the holiday, with sufficient enterprise inventories, suppliers have offered discounts to sell. Some imported goods at ports have flowed back to the inland, leading to a bearish sentiment in the sales area. The port market has been driven by sanction news and the late - session rise of futures, with port spot prices slightly firm, and the basis maintaining a strengthening trend. The short - term domestic market is expected to adjust narrowly [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China has increased, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has also increased, which is a bearish factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, both of which are bearish factors. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2250 - 2355 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional performance. Inland prices have dropped, while port prices are slightly firm. The short - term market is expected to have a narrow adjustment. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2250 - 2355 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current sales are active [7]. - Due to poor sales, inventories at some production plants in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.92% week - on - week, while the price in Hebei has decreased by 0.45%. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 68 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8][9]. - The basis has increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 68 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China is 1273,000 tons, an increase of 4900 tons compared to before the holiday. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 59,900 tons to 940,500 tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. Coal - to - methanol profit has increased by 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, while natural gas - to - methanol profit remains unchanged, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit has increased by 326 yuan/ton [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged week - on - week. The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTO have also changed to varying degrees [29][34][37][41][46]. 4. Maintenance Status - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance. In the Northwest region, enterprises such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance. In the East China region, enterprises such as Jinmei Zhongneng and Anhui Linhong Coking are under maintenance. In the Southwest region, enterprises such as Sichuan Lutianhua and Yunnan Qujing are under maintenance. In the Northeast region, enterprises such as Heilongjiang Baojia are under maintenance [57]. - Overseas methanol production enterprises also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of resuming production, while some enterprises in other countries are under maintenance or have normal operations [58]. - Some domestic olefin production enterprises are under maintenance. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last for 45 days [59].