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大越期货甲醇早报-20251210
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 02:35
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇2601: 2025-12-10甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 1、基本面:多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面,内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力,但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平,叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启,且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿,供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看,传统下游逐步进入需求淡季,但新增需求亮点显著:联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时, 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率,销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位,但期补库需求仍 存,形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面,港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位,下游需求一般,浙江MTO装置 ...
国泰君安期货·能源化工:甲醇周度报告-20251207
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-07 13:29
Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: December 07, 2025 - Analyst: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan 1. Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the methanol industry is "Oscillating under Pressure" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol destocking slows down, and with stable spot trading, there is an expected inventory build - up at ports in December, leading to a weak short - term performance. In the medium - term, high domestic supply pressure for the 01 contract remains the main issue, limiting the upside price potential in December. In 2026, there is an expected decline in methanol imports in Q1, potentially leading to a decrease in port inventories and marginal improvement in the overall fundamentals [3] - Currently, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton range is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol prices continue to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of coal prices in Q4, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of methanol valuation [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spreads - Multiple charts show historical trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9), domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials [7][11][15] 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: In 2024, China added 400 million tons of methanol production capacity, and in 2025, it added 830 million tons. Overseas, in 2024, there was 355 million tons of new capacity, and in 2025, 165 million tons are expected to be added [23] - **Maintenance**: Multiple companies had maintenance plans from October to December 2025, resulting in various levels of production losses [26] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: This week (20251128 - 1204), China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a 0.002% decrease. Next week, production is expected to reach about 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 89.74% [3] - **Import - related**: Charts show historical trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts present the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions [41][46] 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Different downstream industries of methanol (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) have different capacity utilization trends. For example, Ningbo Fude's MTO plant is expected to shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [3] - **Downstream Profit**: The production profits of different downstream industries (such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions are presented in charts [57][62] - **Procurement Volume**: Charts show the procurement volumes of different downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) in different regions [66][71] - **Raw Material Inventory**: Charts display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream industries in different regions [76] 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of methanol factory inventories in China and different regions (East, Northwest, Inner Mongolia) [81] - **Port Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of methanol port inventories in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) [87]
大越期货甲醇早报-20251203
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 07:03
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601: 1、基本面:后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著,整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面,随着久泰甲醇装置重启,后期烯 烃需求预期缩量,产区供需格局预期转弱,西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看,需求端增量逻辑明确:阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启,联泓新建烯烃项目预计12月上旬开车;同时,港口与河南至鲁北套利空间关闭后,销区本地供应补充 受限,供需偏紧格局将进一步凸显,南方销区价格支撑力较强,有望持续强于北方产区。港口方面,12月进口船期比11 月有明显增量,鉴于后续密集的进口到港船期和临近交割月巨大的仓单和现货压力,暂时对本轮甲醇涨势持 ...
瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251128
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 09:55
瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 甲醇市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议: MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2170区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨,当周主力合约期价+6.54%。 4 来源:博易大师 「 期货市场情况」 3 行情回顾:本周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹,其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨,广东价格波 动在1980-2080元/吨。内地甲醇价格上涨,主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1985-1990元/ 吨;下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。港口价格走高且套利内地空间收窄,跌价内地 供需矛盾不大影响,企业出货良好,下游买涨心态浓厚。 行情展望:近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量,整体产量增加。 本周部分预售下周期货量,叠加烯烃企业外采量略缩,内地 ...
甲醇周报:基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇向好驱动不足-20251124
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 05:12
研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇向好驱动不足 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员:宋鹏 期货从业资格证号:F0295717 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011567 电话:15693075965 邮箱:2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 证监许可【2012】1087 号 摘要: 投资咨询业务资格: 上周,甲醇供需延续弱势,甲醇期货继续下跌,至周五下午 收盘,甲醇加权收于 2036 元/吨,较前一周下跌 1.97%。 【基本面】 报告日期:2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 上周,国内甲醇装置复产多于检修,甲醇产量再次上升,供 给端支撑依旧乏力。上周甲醇下游烯烃开工率小幅上升,甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面,上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降, 企业待发订单量上升,显示甲醇下游刚需仍在。上周港口甲醇在 刚需及货源倒流内地的支撑下,港口甲醇库存下降较为明显,但 总体仍在高位,港口甲醇库存对价格仍形成压力。利润方面,随 着甲醇现货价格持续下降,上周甲醇企业利润继续下滑。综合来 看,甲醇基本面依旧偏弱,甲醇现货价仍然弱势。 【后市展望】 后续来看,甲醇 ...
大越期货甲醇早报-20251121
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:01
Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. Core Viewpoints - Due to lackluster demand and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland, the market will likely remain in a stalemate, while ports may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with MA2601 operating in the range of 1990 - 2055 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report predicts that methanol prices will be weak and fluctuate this week. MA2601 will operate between 1990 - 2055. The inland market will be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong oscillating [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are low, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the off - season, MTBE operation rate has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some producers' inventories are accumulating [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2020 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2016 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 124.39 million tons, a decrease of 3.51 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 4.24 million tons to 72.35 million tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The national weighted average operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit is - 63 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 113 yuan/ton [20]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained stable this week. The production profits of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde has decreased slightly [30][34][37][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low rate. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc., are operating normally, and some devices in Qatar are under maintenance [59]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic MTO/MTP devices are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production increase [60].
大越期货甲醇早报-20251120
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 02:41
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601: 1、基本面:需求暂无亮点以及供应压力犹存,预计本周国内甲醇市场震荡整理为主。内地方面,产区尤其是内蒙北线 甲醇工厂库存紧张,加之当前价格整体处于底部空间,多数贸易商做空谨慎对价格有支撑作用。但同时,内地甲醇开工 处于高位,区域间货源流通活跃,进口货源倒流入鲁南外甚至部分流入鲁北,供应仍然充裕,但销区需求支撑一般,贸 易商暂未有持货意愿,预计本周内地行情僵持整理。港口方面,基本面来看,暂时注入海外供应减量的锚点,市场心态 有所转变,但实质上缺乏反转上行的支撑条件,预计本周港口甲醇市场或底部偏强震荡等待反弹契机,关注伊朗装置 ...
大越期货甲醇早报-20251119
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for methanol currently lacks highlights, and supply pressure persists. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate this week. The inland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, the methanol price is expected to be weak and volatile, with MA2601 oscillating between 2000 - 2065 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol show that the inland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some domestic and Iranian devices have reduced production or are shut down, some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production, and some northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, MTBE operation has declined, coal - to - methanol has a profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2025 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2030 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - **Market Price Changes**: The spot prices of methanol in most domestic regions have declined to varying degrees this week. The CFR price of imported methanol and the price of methanol in Southeast Asia have also decreased [8][9][24]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol has remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has decreased. The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to varying degrees, and the MTO production profit has increased [20][35][38][43][48]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian and other overseas methanol devices are in the process of restarting, operation, or maintenance, such as ZPC in Iran and QAFAC in Qatar [59]. - **MTO Devices**: Some MTO devices in Northwest and other regions are operating stably, while some are in a state of parking or load reduction, such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Gansu Huating [60].
大越期货甲醇周报-20251117
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of demand highlights and persistent supply pressure, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week. Inland, although methanol factories in production areas, especially in the northern line of Inner Mongolia, have tight inventories and the current price is at a low level, which supports the price as most traders are cautious about short - selling. However, the inland methanol operation rate is high, the inter - regional goods circulation is active, and imported goods flow back into southern Shandong and even some into northern Shandong. The supply remains abundant, but the demand in the sales area is generally supported, and traders have no intention to hold goods for the time being. It is expected that the inland market will be in a stalemate and consolidation next week. In the port area, although the market sentiment has changed due to the potential reduction in overseas supply, there is actually no support for a reverse upward trend. It is expected that the port methanol market may fluctuate strongly at the bottom and wait for an opportunity to rebound. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Iranian device maintenance and the overseas methanol transaction situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The demand for methanol has no highlights and the supply pressure persists. The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate next week. Inland and port markets have different situations as described above [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From November 7th to November 14th, the prices in different regions showed different trends. In Jiangsu, the price dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price increased from 2070 yuan/ton to 2090 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97%. In Inner Mongolia, the price dropped from 2000 yuan/ton to 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00%. In Fujian, the price dropped from 2095 yuan/ton to 2050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From November 7th to November 14th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, and the futures price dropped from 2112 yuan/ton to 2055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70%. The basis increased from - 22 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - For coal - based methanol, the profit dropped from - 36 yuan/ton on November 7th to - 61 yuan/ton on November 14th, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. For natural - gas - based methanol, the profit remained at - 40 yuan/ton. For coke - oven - gas - based methanol, the profit decreased from 106 yuan/ton to 123 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan/ton (might be a data error in the original report) [10]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, the load decreased from 85.09% last week to 81.54% this week, a decrease of 3.55% [12]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From November 7th to November 14th, the CFR China price dropped from 246 US dollars/ton to 239 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The CFR Southeast Asia price dropped from 322.5 US dollars/ton to 319.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The spread between them decreased from - 76.5 US dollars/ton to - 80.5 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From November 7th to November 14th, the spot price dropped from 2090 yuan/ton to 2047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, the import cost dropped from 2165 yuan/ton to 2106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73%, and the import spread increased from - 75 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.7 Traditional Downstream Product Prices of Methanol - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from November 7th to November 14th, with no weekly change [25]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - **Formaldehyde**: The production profit decreased from - 111 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 30.97% last week to 30.98% this week, an increase of 0.01% [26]. - **Dimethyl ether**: The production profit decreased from 611 yuan/ton to 582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% last week to 9.79% this week, an increase of 1.45% [28]. - **Acetic acid**: The production profit increased from 251 yuan/ton to 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% last week to 72.32% this week, a decrease of 1.29% [32]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from 12 yuan/ton to 138 yuan/ton. The MTO load decreased from 86.45% last week to 84.18% this week, a decrease of 2.27% [36]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 78.8 to 80.33, an increase of 1.53. In the South China port, the inventory decreased from 49.81 to 47.57, a decrease of 2.24 [37]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased from 10914 on November 7th to 11579 on November 14th, an increase of 6.09%. The effective forecasts remained at 0 on November 14th after reaching 1170 in the middle of the week [41]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. Different enterprises have different maintenance start and end times, raw materials, and maintenance losses [43]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol production enterprises in different countries have different operation statuses. For example, some Iranian enterprises are in the process of restarting, and some Saudi and Malaysian enterprises are operating normally [44]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Related Device Operation in the Northwest - In the northwest region, some olefin - related enterprises have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are running smoothly [45].
瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251114
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 09:23
Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market showed weak fluctuations, while the inland methanol market stopped falling and rose slightly. The price increase was limited due to the continuous back - flow of port goods and the cautious attitude of the market. In the near future, the overall domestic methanol production has decreased. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has declined, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has continued to decline and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was weakly volatile this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2040 - 2110 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2120 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and rose slightly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2185 - 2190 yuan/ton. The price increase was limited due to the back - flow of port goods [7] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has decreased, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has declined and is expected to remain stable next week [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.7% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 14, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 108 [13] - **Position Analysis**: As of November 13, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,709, an increase of 795 compared with last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week [26] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 13, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 80 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [31] - **Basis**: As of November 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - **Industry**: As of November 13, China's methanol production was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. As of November 12, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 245,400 tons, an increase of 24,300 tons from the previous period. The total port inventory of methanol was 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 18.92% from the previous month; from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 13, the methanol import profit was - 16.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39 yuan/ton from last week [42][47][50] - **Downstream**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous week. As of November 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin paper profit was - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 181 yuan/ton from last week [53][56]