Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the sugar industry is "Weak Operation" [1] Core View - The sugar price is expected to run weakly, and the trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.84 cents/pound, down 0.42 cents year-on-year. The mainstream spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year. The futures main contract price is 5258 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [1] - The 15 spread is 13 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan year-on-year. The 59 spread is -17 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year. The mainstream spot basis is 82 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/2026 season increased by 28.3% year-on-year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons of sugar in November, a year-on-year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [1] - Attention should be paid to the changes in China's import policies for sugar syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/2026 season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 2024/2025 season was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons. The cumulative sugar sales ratio was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [2] - As of the end of November, China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2025/2026 season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects the global sugar supply to have a surplus of 163,000 tons in the 2025/2026 season (previously a shortage of 23,000 tons), and a shortage of 292,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season [3] - As of December 1, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/2026 season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year-on-year, with a cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons. The cumulative MIX was 51.12%, a year-on-year increase of 2.78 percentage points [3] - As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/2026 season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons [3] - As of December 27, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/2026 season was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 240,000 tons [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, December 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,275, up 10 (0.19%), volume 12,287 (down 4068), open interest 66,801 (up 2788) [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,271, up 6 (0.11%), volume 3,435 (down 548), open interest 15,210 (down 1900) [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,258, up 5 (0.10%), volume 202,265 (down 58809), open interest 425,612 (down 6682) [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5420, Kunming 5220, Wuhan 5650, Nanning 5360, Rizhao 5545, Xi'an 5820, with no price changes [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 149, Kunming -51, Wuhan 379, Nanning 89, Rizhao 274, Xi'an 549 [3] Monthly Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -13, down 1; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, up 5; SR09 - SR01: Spread 4, up 4 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: Quota - in price 4091, out - of - quota price 5199, spread with Liuzhou 221, with Rizhao 346, with futures 72 [3] - Thailand import: Quota - in price 4139, out - of - quota price 5262, spread with Liuzhou 158, with Rizhao 283, with futures 9 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Thailand (2025/26 season as of Dec 27): Cumulative cane crush 1407.33 million tons (down 16.71% YoY), sugar production 127.93 million tons (down 15.83% YoY) [5] - India: 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota 2.2 million tons (down 50,000 tons from 2025) [5] - Guangxi: December sugar production estimated 170 - 180 million tons (down from 223.9 million tons last year), sales 70 - 80 million tons conservatively, may exceed 1 million tons with pre - sales and point - price sugar [6][8] - Maharashtra, India: As of Dec 28, 2025, cane crush 51.53 million tons, sugar production 4.4782 million tons [8] Logic Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases as it enters the end of the harvest season. Northern hemisphere is in the production cycle, and the final output may affect the market. Short - term, ICE sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate slightly stronger [9] - Domestic: Sugar prices are at a low level. High production costs, a bottom - building trend in ICE sugar, and rising import costs support the market. However, the peak production season and global sugar production increase expectations limit the upside [9] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Brazil's harvest is ending, international sugar prices are bottom - building. Domestic market may oscillate near the current platform, and higher international prices may drive the domestic market [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, basis, and futures spreads [13][14][17]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Weekly Report (12.22 - 12.26) - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - This week, sugar prices rebounded after hitting a low. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000 and has accelerated its rebound back above 5200. It is expected to consolidate briefly and oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices hit a low and rebounded. The main contract 05 has strong support around 5000, and international sugar prices have also rebounded above 15 cents [4]. - In the 2025/2026 season, different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, and StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/2026 season in China was 883000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90000 tons, and imported 114400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main contract 05 of sugar has accelerated its rebound and returned above 5200. It is a repair of the previous rapid decline. It may consolidate briefly at the current level and is expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [5]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, an expected surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of international sugar prices to around 15 cents per pound, and increased import pressure [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 2025/2026 season. StoneX expects a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO expects a surplus of 1630000 tons, and Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons [31]. - From 2023/2024 to 2025/2026, China's sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and other data are presented. In 2025/2026, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, with a surplus change of 820000 tons [33]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and完税 (50% tariff) is provided. In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus lies in whether the current sugar price has bottomed out. Key contradictions include the rationality of the 01 contract price, the future price of the 05 contract, and whether the international market can stabilize above 15 cents [2]. - The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The overall structure has not reversed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations and a return to a downward trend [10]. - The long - term backwardation pattern of sugar futures is difficult to break, and there is a possibility of further widening of the spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The 01 contract has entered the delivery month. After a significant rebound, its price dropped compared to the far - month contracts last Thursday. The 01 price corresponds to a minimum spot price of about 5160 yuan according to the Brazilian out - of - quota 45 - day shipping import price [2]. - The 05 contract is currently at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. It is more likely to follow the raw sugar price, but the probability of further price increases is limited due to insufficient bullish factors [2]. - The international raw sugar price rose after a decline last week, approaching 15.2 cents. However, it has been suppressed after reaching this price four times. The bullish impact is more reflected in the far - month contracts, and the rebound height of the near - month sugar price is expected to be limited [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The moving averages show a clear bearish arrangement. Although the 05 contract's K - line briefly crossed the 10 - day, 20 - day, and 30 - day moving averages, the overall structure has not changed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations [10]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - The unilateral long position in SR2511 has been stopped out. - The strategy of selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered [11]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: None. - **Spread Strategy**: Short 05 and long 09 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 11.29% and a historical percentile of 2.2% over three years [12]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 5300 - 5350 yuan) and sell call options (SR603C5400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 35 - 40) [12]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 5100 - 5150 yuan) and sell put options (SR603P5000, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: - As of December 25, 2025, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, one less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 59.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of December 24, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume in the 2025/26 crushing season was 11.5321 million tons, a decrease of 1.9633 million tons (14.54%) year - on - year. Sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a decrease of 0.1667 million tons (14.28%) year - on - year [13]. - In India, sugarcane in the Kuditrey region is suffering losses due to flowering, and farmers have requested early crushing [13]. - Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season [14]. - **Bearish Information**: - In November 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The beverage output in November was 10.457 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; from January to November, it was 165.606 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [15]. - As of December 18, 2025, 69 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, five less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons year - on - year [16]. - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase year - on - year [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - India's sugar - crushing progress [21]. - December production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The futures price rose last week, with the main 05 contract rising 3.87% for the week. The position of the SR2605 contract has seasonally declined recently. The largest profit - taking seat in sugar has significantly increased its net short position to 15,000 contracts, while the net short position of foreign - funded seats has slightly decreased to 52,300 contracts. Technically, although the short - term price has risen significantly, the bearish arrangement still exists, and the price may fluctuate [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: - **Basis Structure**: The premium of the cheapest deliverable for the 01 contract has dropped to - 249 yuan/ton. If calculated based on the import price around January 15, the futures price is still at a premium of about 100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread changed significantly last week due to the rapid decline of the 01 contract price. The long - term price difference is stable, with a slight near - month premium [22]. - **International Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The raw sugar price rose last week, up 2.15%. The price is approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The non - commercial position of CFTC has maintained a large short position but decreased last week [24]. - **Spread Structure**: The current raw sugar futures show a back structure with strong near - month and weak far - month prices. The pressure of increased production in the Thai and Indian markets is high. The far - month discount is unfavorable for sugar mills' hedging, and the hedging pressure reappears above 15.2 cents [27]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the price fluctuations of Zhengzhou sugar are much smaller than those of raw sugar. Recently, affected by the start of sugar mills in Guangxi and large imports, the domestic supply pressure has increased, while the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss. The previous pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets has temporarily changed to weak domestic and strong international markets [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Import Profit Tracking**: China is a net importer of sugar, and the production cost is higher than the international market. With the recent decline in the international price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports are also used to supplement supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam has been closed, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. Recently, the imports of syrup and premixed powder have been relatively stable [32]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Projection - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection**: Since the 2025/26 crushing season, considering the good growth of sugarcane in the Guangxi production area, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year. According to the November data from the China Sugar Association, the estimated production will rise to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year increase. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 crushing season and the current situation and are not used as a reference for real - world data [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar - crushing season started smoothly in the early stage, while Thailand's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased. With low inventories at the market terminal and among traders, the price increase stimulated restocking sentiment. As the market gradually enters the consumption peak season, trading volume has picked up. With the interaction between domestic and international markets, the sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. As of December 24, 2025, in Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 11.5321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.54%; the sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.28%. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi and 35 sugar mills in Yunnan (5 more than the same period last year) have started crushing. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased, and trading volume picked up. The sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract increased this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.03%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.23 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.58 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. This week, the net position of the top 20 in the sugar futures was - 68,227 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 5,038 [19][26]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: This week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 5 - 9 contracts was - 6 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 155 yuan per ton [30]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 26, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,440 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,380 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,263 yuan per ton, a decrease of 122 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 58 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,123 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was - 4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [46]. - **Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - **Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: No specific data analysis provided.

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, with the主力 March contract up 0.66% to 15.30 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures also rose, with the主力 March contract up 0.76% to $435.20 per ton. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season boosted sugar prices, but raw sugar remains in a sideways consolidation [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed at 5,269 yuan per ton, up 54 yuan or 1.04%, with a reduction of 10,734 positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained flat. The rumor of sugar storage has no further news, and Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward momentum without more positive stimuli. The 01 contract has a negative basis, which is favorable for delivery, and it faces greater pressure to continue rising without more positives [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,364 yuan/ton | 33 | 0.62% | 23,794 | -4,556 | | SR605 | 5,269 yuan/ton | 54 | 1.04% | 455,396 | -10,734 | | US Sugar 03 | 15.30 cents/pound | 0.10 | 0.66% | 434,178 | -5,537 | | US Sugar 05 | 14.89 cents/pound | 0.07 | 0.47% | 197,454 | 120 | [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, and London ICE white sugar futures also rose. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season supported sugar prices, and raw sugar is in a sideways trend [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed higher with reduced positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained stable. Without more positive news about the rumored sugar storage, Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward impetus. The 01 contract has a negative basis, and it is difficult to rise further without more positives [8]. Group 5: Industry News - Agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado predicts that sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season will be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season. Brazil's total sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons. The region's cane crushing volume is expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 595 million tons. The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to drop to 47% from 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills started operation in Yunnan. This week, 2 - 3 more are expected to start. As of now, 35 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 season in Yunnan, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected cane - crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day [9]. - The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar will be extended until December 2026 to protect the domestic sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The recovery of domestic raw sugar production is the main reason for this policy adjustment. The department will strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides charts on spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and open interest of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract, with data sources mainly from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [11][14][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The main March contract rose 1.20% to 15.17 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.3% to $431.90 per ton. Agricultural consulting agency Safras predicted on Monday that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would decrease by 5% compared with the previous season, which boosted the sugar price in terms of news. Raw sugar remained in a sideways oscillation overall [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded significantly. The 05 contract closed at 5,262 yuan per ton, up 119 yuan or 2.31%, with a reduction of 42,820 lots in positions. The new domestic sugar price was raised. The price in Nanning was 5,375 yuan per ton, and in Kunming was 5,220 yuan per ton. There were rumors in the market that the state would purchase and store sugar, which could not be confirmed. The recent two - day rebound might be related to this. Future policy changes should be monitored. After the market closed, it was found that the funds of most short - position seats reduced significantly, while there was no obvious chasing - up funds from the long side [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market conditions**: The main March contract of New York raw sugar futures rose 1.20% to 15.17 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.3% to $431.90 per ton. The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,262 yuan per ton, up 119 yuan or 2.31%, with a reduction of 42,820 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Domestic sugar price**: The new domestic sugar price was raised. The price in Nanning was 5,375 yuan per ton, and in Kunming was 5,220 yuan per ton [8]. - **Market rumors and speculation**: There were rumors of state sugar purchase and storage, which could not be confirmed. The recent rebound might be related to this. Attention should be paid to policy changes. After the market closed, most short - position funds reduced significantly, and there was no obvious long - side chasing - up funds [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Brazil's sugar production forecast**: Agricultural consulting agency Safras & Mercado said that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season was expected to reach 38 million tons, a 5% decrease compared with the previous season. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season was expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than 43.5 million tons in the previous year. The sugarcane crushing volume in this region in the 2026/27 season was expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than 595 million tons in the previous year. It was expected that sugar mills would use 47% of sugarcane for sugar production in the 2026/27 season, lower than 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Sugar mill opening in Yunnan**: From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills in Yunnan started production. It was expected that 2 - 3 more sugar mills would start production this week. As of now, 35 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production in the 2025/26 season, 5 more than the same period last year. The expected sugarcane crushing capacity was 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day compared with the same period last year [9]. - **Philippines' sugar import ban**: The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar would be extended to December 2026 to protect the local sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The domestic raw sugar production had rebounded, which was an important basis for this policy adjustment. The department would strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. 3.3数据概览 - **Relevant data charts**: The report provided charts including spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][17][20][23]. - **Trading and position data of the top 20 seats**: The total trading volume was 625,018 lots, an increase of 333,602 lots; the total long - position volume was 309,454 lots, a decrease of 4,655 lots; the total short - position volume was 376,895 lots, a decrease of 14,683 lots [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions providing varying surplus estimates. The sugar price is currently in a short - term rebound phase, and it is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300 [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. ISO expects a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO has revised its surplus estimate from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow has raised its estimate to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5410, and the basis for the 05 contract is 148, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6] - **Likely Positive Factors**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose [7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global sugar production has increased, there is a supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price has dropped to around 15 cents per pound, the import profit window has opened, and the import impact has increased [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast by Institutions**: StoneX predicts a 3.7 - billion - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a 1.63 - billion - ton surplus because global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a 1.53 - billion - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32] - **Sugar - related Data in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - crop planting area, harvest area, and sugar production have generally shown an upward trend. The import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, and the consumption volume is expected to be 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [34] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.086 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5679 - 5708.6 yuan per ton [37] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest - end stage, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The US sugar price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger at the short - term bottom. Domestically, due to factors such as low current prices, high processing costs, and the upward trend of the US sugar price, the domestic sugar price may have some upward space in the short term, but the upward space may be limited considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing period and the global sugar production increase expectation in the 25/26 season [8] - The Brazilian sugar - pressing season is approaching the end, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming. The domestic sugar is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a long position in the single - sided trade, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, up 110 (2.13%) with a trading volume of 38,893 (an increase of 24,822) and an open interest of 63,211 (an increase of 4,698); SR01 closed at 5,392, up 136 (2.59%) with a trading volume of 20,405 (an increase of 10,867) and an open interest of 28,350 (a decrease of 9,933); SR05 closed at 5,262, up 107 (2.08%) with a trading volume of 463,804 (an increase of 256,401) and an open interest of 466,130 (a decrease of 42,820) [3] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, and Nanning all increased to varying degrees. The basis in Liuzhou was 28, - 152 in Kunming, 258 in Wuhan, - 42 in Nanning, 158 in Rizhao, and 428 in Xi'an [3] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 130 (down 29); the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (up 3); the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 126 (down 26) [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price of Brazilian imports was 5,197, and the profit compared to Liuzhou was 353; the quota - free price of Thai imports was 5,260, and the profit compared to Liuzhou was 290 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills in Yunnan started production, and 2 - 3 more are expected to start this week. As of now, 35 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production in the 25/26 season, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected sugar - cane crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan is 5,230 - 5,260 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume has reached a few thousand tons [5] - In Maharashtra, as of December 21, 2025, 184 sugar mills have started production in the 25/26 season, with a cumulative sugar - cane crushing of 44.604 billion tons and a sugar output of 3.8021 billion tons, with a sugar - extraction rate of 8.52% [5] - On the 24th, the futures market rose, and the spot prices of sugar in the main production areas increased accordingly, with overall good trading volume [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar is entering the end of the harvest season, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's attention has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The final realization of the production increase in the Northern Hemisphere may affect the market trend. The US sugar price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger at the short - term bottom [8] - Domestic: The current sugar price is low, and the previous excessive price decline has been partially corrected. The high processing cost in China provides support for the market. The upward trend of the US sugar price also has an upward - driving effect on Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing period and the global sugar production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the upward space is limited [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trade**: The Brazilian sugar - pressing season is approaching the end, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming. The domestic sugar is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [9] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs showing data such as monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, monthly sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spreads of sugar futures. The data sources are Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][16][18][19][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a global sugar supply surplus, with different institutions' forecasts ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. After continuous decline, the sugar main contract 05 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, and the market shows a volatile rebound due to some short - position profit - taking [4][5][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a larger supply - demand surplus in the new season, lower international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus vary. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, with a basis of 215 for the 05 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net position changing from long to short, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO predicts 1.63 million tons, Datagro predicts 1 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts 7.4 million tons [4][9][33] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4] - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9] - **Price Data**: The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content