Core Viewpoint - Moody's economist Stefan Angrick suggests that the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement may face reevaluation if Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the Senate [1] Group 1 - The US-Japan trade agreement has gained attention, but more dramatic developments may occur in Japanese politics [1] - The ruling coalition in Japan recently lost its majority in the Senate, significantly impacting Prime Minister Abe [1] - Angrick believes that the Abe government intentionally delayed the signing of the trade agreement until after the elections [1] Group 2 - Abe previously framed the tariff crisis as a national emergency requiring bipartisan cooperation, which served as a justification for his continued leadership [1] - As the threat of tariffs diminishes, the rationale for Abe's leadership is becoming increasingly unstable [1] - If Abe resigns, his successor may reconsider the agreement, which has been criticized by the opposition as a "one-sided concession" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The request from Trump for Japan to open its agricultural market may further destabilize Japan's already fragile political situation [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The market perceives a potential trade agreement between the US and Japan as an unexpected positive development due to two reasons: first, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the House of Councillors, leading to expectations that trade negotiations would be delayed; second, the proposed tariff level of 15% is lower than the 24%-25% tariffs threatened by Trump earlier in April and earlier this month [1] Group 2: Political Risks - A significant political challenge may arise from Trump's demand for Japan to open its agricultural market to US products, which could face substantial resistance during implementation and further shake Japan's already weak political landscape [1]

金十数据7月23日讯，据日本读卖新闻报道，日本首相石破茂计划在评估与美国关税谈判进展后，将很 快决定是否辞去首相一职。石破茂表示，一旦贸易谈判达成解决方案，他将解释如何承担选举失败的责 任。在解释自己留任首相的决定时，石破茂强调，日本面临诸多挑战，包括与美国的艰难贸易谈判，这 将对依赖出口的日本经济产生巨大影响，因此有必要避免制造政治真空。预计石破茂将于周三晚些时候 会见执政党重量级人物，讨论选举结果。 石破茂计划在评估美日贸易协议进展后，作出去留决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's multiverse model suggests that the reasonable valuation for USD/JPY is between 146 and 152, but warns that various political, macroeconomic, and policy changes could trigger a rebound in the yen [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yen Rebound - Key factors for potential yen appreciation include a US-Japan trade agreement, the Federal Reserve restarting easing policies, or direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan [1] - A US-Japan trade agreement with lower-than-expected tariffs could alleviate fiscal concerns and reignite expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, providing upward potential for the yen [1] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut in September also poses an upside risk for the yen [1] Group 2: Intervention Thresholds - If the USD/JPY exchange rate falls between 155 and 160, it may trigger foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance [1] - Due to US scrutiny over currency manipulation, the threshold for such intervention may have been lowered [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated that a "good" trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan is possible, but it may take more time to achieve [1] - The discussions during Yellen's visit did not focus on trade, as it was not the primary purpose of the visit, although the atmosphere was friendly [1][3] - The U.S. has raised concerns about Japan taking advantage of the U.S. in trade, particularly regarding tariffs on Japanese exports [1] Trade Negotiations - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on Japanese exports from 10% to 25% by August 1, with significant gaps remaining in negotiations, especially concerning the 25% tariff on automobiles [1][4] - Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator, Akizuki, has been actively engaging in discussions but has not achieved concrete results, with seven visits to Washington since April [4] - The upcoming Washington talks are seen as a critical opportunity for negotiations before the tariff deadline [6] Political Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections may complicate trade negotiations, as polls suggest that the ruling coalition led by Kishida may lose its majority, weakening its negotiating position [2][6] - Kishida's cabinet approval ratings have dropped to 20.8%, a decline of 6.2 percentage points, raising concerns about the coalition's ability to maintain a majority [6]

美日贸易协议停滞不前，石破茂与特朗普在G7峰会的30分钟会晤再次无果而终。 这是自2月华盛顿会晤以来两人首次当面对话，也是双方部长级关税谈判陷入僵局后的最新尝试。尽管 双方在此期间已通过电话进行了四次交流，但围绕关税问题的部长级谈判仍未取得实质性进展。 据环球网本月初报道，日本《日经亚洲》发布文章披露美国政府贸易谈判团队，即美国财政部长贝森 特、美国商务部长卢特尼克和美国贸易代表格里尔三人之间存在的内部分歧，相关情况让寻求与美国开 展谈判的日本方面感到困惑和沮丧，"给日美关税谈判增添了一层复杂性"。 值得注意的是，就在G7峰会前几天，以"不可预测"著称的特朗普在一个戏剧性转折中，有效批准了新 日铁公司对美国钢铁公司的收购案。这一决定被视为双方关系中的积极信号，也为即将到来的首脑会谈 营造了相对缓和的氛围。 石破茂此次G7之行的核心目标明确——说服华盛顿取消对日本汽车征收的25%关税以及对其他日本商 品征收的24%对等关税。这些关税措施目前暂停至7月9日，给双方留下了最后的谈判窗口。 "希望保护汽车，因为汽车事关重大国家利益，"石破茂在会谈后表示，明确将汽车业置于日本经济安全 的核心位置。 石破茂表示将"继续寻 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasizes the need for a bipartisan response to U.S. tariff issues and has discussed the current status of U.S.-Japan negotiations with leaders of other parties, highlighting that any agreement reached with the U.S. must be mutually beneficial [1] Group 1 - The necessity for a cross-party response to U.S. tariff issues is underscored [1] - Discussions with other party leaders regarding the state of U.S.-Japan negotiations have taken place [1] - The importance of ensuring that any agreement with the U.S. is advantageous for both parties is highlighted [1]