与此同时，持仓洗盘自有其道理。几乎每个人——包括他们的宠物猫——在自民党大选前都做空美元/日 元。对冲基金、商品交易顾问和宏观投资者蜂拥而至，却被大选后的跳空打压，被迫补仓，转做多，然后 在信贷压力来袭时再次被洗出局。日元交易不再像一个纯粹的利率替代指标；它变成了披着套利外衣的均 值回归交易——收益率诱人，但波动率飙升时却会惩罚投资者。 更令人困惑的是，外汇和利率已经脱钩。美元/日元与美日两年期利差之间的90天相关性已反转至-0.54，为 2020年以来最大反向相关性。旧指南针已失效，交易员们正在用结构性指标——期权、日历、敲入——而 美元兑日元已成为世界宏观经济断层线——两块板块以相反方向摩擦形成的缝隙。一边是美联储宽松政策 的引力，另一边是日本新领导人重启安倍经济学的政治推动力。 高市事件的冲击波彻底击穿了这条缝隙——美元兑日元跳空高开至153.27，创下35年来最大开盘涨幅，随 后因美国信贷危机引发避险情绪，上周跌至149.40。 这一水平至关重要，因为当日低点149.38几乎触及了大选后飙升的61.8%回撤位——恰好是21日移动平均线 在盘中介入，阻止卖家入场，使得该水平相当于外汇市场的马其诺防线。 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's multiverse model suggests that the reasonable valuation for USD/JPY is between 146 and 152, but warns that various political, macroeconomic, and policy changes could trigger a rebound in the yen [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yen Rebound - Key factors for potential yen appreciation include a US-Japan trade agreement, the Federal Reserve restarting easing policies, or direct intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan [1] - A US-Japan trade agreement with lower-than-expected tariffs could alleviate fiscal concerns and reignite expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes, providing upward potential for the yen [1] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut in September also poses an upside risk for the yen [1] Group 2: Intervention Thresholds - If the USD/JPY exchange rate falls between 155 and 160, it may trigger foreign exchange intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance [1] - Due to US scrutiny over currency manipulation, the threshold for such intervention may have been lowered [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a recent drop to 145.4460, reflecting a 0.48% decrease, primarily due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and energy concerns [1] - The USD/JPY rate rose from 146.00 to 147.21, surpassing the declining 100-day moving average at 146.80, indicating a strong upward trend since reaching a high of 147.66 on May 14 [1] - Traders are holding a significant long position in JPY amounting to $12.5 billion, and a close above the Ichimoku cloud could trigger short covering, with the 200-day moving average at 149.66 [1] Group 2 - Bank of America strategists recommend buying USD/JPY to hedge against escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, as Japan heavily relies on oil imports from the region [2] - The target price for USD/JPY is set at 152.0, with a stop-loss at 142, considering Japan's dependence on oil imports and potential fiscal risks ahead of the July 20 Senate elections [2] - The USD/JPY rate has fluctuated between 145.70 and 146.16, with support levels provided by the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 145.71 and 144.96, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings indicates that rising yen yields are prompting Japanese investors to withdraw from U.S. assets, alongside implicit exchange rate pressures from Washington, which may lead to a 6% appreciation of the yen against the dollar in the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - Nomura recommends shorting the USD/JPY pair, targeting a decline from approximately 145 yen to 136 yen by the end of September [1] - The steady pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is expected to encourage domestic investors to allocate more to local bonds rather than overseas bonds [1] Group 2: Trade and Market Sentiment - Concerns over a depreciating yen, particularly during sensitive bilateral trade negotiations, may exacerbate U.S. worries regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - Analysts do not anticipate any symbolic foreign exchange agreements between the U.S. and Japan, but the market still expects a tacit understanding regarding a weaker dollar [1]