中信证券 2025 年春季策略：核心资产的春天 摘要 Q&A 您对中国核心资产的看法是什么？为什么认为它们具有投资价值？ 我们非常看好中国的新核心资产接力。前一段时间市场经历了极致高波动的板 块行情，但我们认为最近的市场高切低模式与过去一两年有根本性不同。投资 者开始抛弃杠铃结构，转向持续进攻和持有，体现出更积极的心态。信心修复 目前局限于科技领域，但未来会扩散到经济领域，这是时间问题。我们对两会 在供给侧和促消费方面保持期待。 从风格上看，核心资产是关注重心。A 股市 场若要走出类似港股市场的指数化行情，需要龙头核心资产走出盈利和估值空 间。这包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资产中的经营拐点公司。目前大约 30%的传 • 市场策略转变：机构投资者逐步放弃杠铃策略，转向持续进攻和持有，显 示出对市场更为积极的态度，信心修复正从科技领域向经济领域扩散。 • 核心资产配置：核心资产是关注重点，A 股市场若要走出指数化行情，需 要龙头核心资产实现盈利和估值双重提升，包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资 产中的经营拐点公司，目前约 30%的传统核心资产公司已走出经营拐点。 • 港股估值优势：港股市场仍处于早期阶段，互联网龙头、半导体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's core assets are expected to experience a revival in the spring, driven by policy advancements in technology, supply-side reforms, and consumption potential optimization [1] - The "New Core Asset 30" portfolio is selected from technology, industrial, and consumer sectors, focusing on companies that are expected to outperform ordinary firms as confidence is restored [1] - The market is anticipated to shift towards consumption-related themes with lower valuation levels, especially in light of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The IPO normalization is seen as a necessary reform direction to balance financing and support the real economy, with expectations of increased IPO supply without burdening the market [4] - The RMB's equilibrium exchange rate is estimated to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with short-term fluctuations expected between 7.20 and 7.35, influenced by trade dynamics and capital flows [5] - The manufacturing sector shows positive signs with PMI data indicating a recovery, supported by consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investments [6] Group 3 - The solid-state battery industry is projected to see significant developments, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and mass production by 2030, highlighting investment opportunities across the supply chain [15] - The high-end titanium material sector is expected to recover due to increased demand from the military and aerospace industries, with a favorable competitive landscape [21] - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 38% from 2025 to 2027, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions [23]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 沈思越 连一席 杨帆 遥远 玛西高娃 于翔 展望春季，随着政策在三大领域的推进和发力，信心修复将从科技领域逐步扩散到经济领域，美国 对华限制的加强或是市场在春季的最大一次挑战，但也是信心全面修复的试金石；中国的新赛道在 萌芽，具备千亿美金市值潜力的新核心资产在扩容，同时传统赛道龙头当中约有3 0%的公司陆续出 现经营拐点；港股的行情还在早期，而前期相对滞涨的A股核心资产正加速出清，未来GARP策略 或接力极致弹性策略，中国的核心资产有望迎来春天。因此，我们沿着科技创新推动产业价值重 构、供给侧改革引导行业供需出清以及制度优化释放消费潜能三个视角，从科技、工业和消费板块 中甄选出"新核心资产3 0 "组合，作为春季的配置重心，我们认为在信心全面修复后，"好公 司"与"普通公司"之间的分化将远远超过"好行业"与"普通行业"之间的分化。 也是信心全面修复的试金石 4月开始美国对华政策不确定性可能会有明显提升。需要留意的风险点主要包括《美国优先贸易 政策备忘录》调查结果在4月初发布，《美国优先投资政策》备忘录的落实以及半导体领域可能 的进一步出口禁令和限制。我们复盘了2 0 1 ...